I view it slightly differently. What you are paying for by giving Talib a long term deal early is the security of locking up continuity in your secondary, and to a large extent, in your defense.
The Pats have been using a band-aid approach to their secondary for a long, long time. It seemed like we had something going with Bodden, Butler, McCourty, Meriweather, McGowan and Chung going into 2010. But Bodden's and McGowan fell apart due to injuries, Meriweather and Butler regressed, and now Chung's regressed. Only McCourty has emerged from that group, and even he had some major issues in 2011.
We've finally reached a point where we've got some stability in the secondary, and where the coaching staff appears to have both a consistent direction and confidence in the personnel. The fact that they were confident enough to have Talib shadow Andre Johnson, and the way they've been using the front 7 are testimony to that. It's been a transformation. Does anyone want to go back to the way things were? It's fine to say that Alfonzo Dennard may emerge as a #1 caliber CB but there's no guarantee of that, and the really good defenses have 2 solid CBs plus playmaking safeties (look at San Francisco and Seattle, for example; those are the model secondaries IMHO).
Sign Talib to an extension now and you have long term continuity in the secondary for at least 2 years beyond this year and and probably more. Arrington can probably be re-signed for reasonable money (I'd guess something less than what Steve Gregory got, and if not he's expendable; I don't see a huge market for him, and he's proven he's not a starting caliber outside CB). Dennard is under contract through 2015, as are Tavon Wilson and Nate Ebner. McCourty's under contract through 2014 (and will no doubt get a long term extension once the cap goes up in 2014), as are Steve Gregory and Ras-I Dowling (who people trash but who good have excellent value as a 3rd press-man CB if he ever gets healthy, especially with a role model like Talib to learn behind; having 3 guys with those kind of skills would be terrific). Marquice Cole is a FA this year but shouldn't be too hard to re-sign; he has value, but is replaceable. McCourty, Wilson, Dowling, Dennard and Ebner are all on their rookie deals, and Gregory is at fairly reasonable cost. So even if you pay Talib, the overall price for the secondary is not that high compared to some.
Locking up Talib now ensures continuity in the secondary. It ensures that you have at least 2 starting caliber outside CBs who can play press-man and allow McCourty to stay at FS where he can refine his instincts and skills. It keeps you out of moving guys around week to week and constantly patching things. It allows you to keep your front 7 focusing forward and not having Spikes and Hightower caught in coverage dilemmas. It keeps you from going out and having to find another CB in FA, who may or may not be a good fit, and having to try and build chemistry all over again.
With Dowling coming back next year we would have a secondary that looks something like this:
CB: Talib (extended), Dennard (2015), Dowling (2014), Arrington (extended), Cole (extended)
S: McCourty (2014), Gregory (2014), Wilson (2015), Ebner (2015)
That seems pretty solid to me. There might be enough money left over to add a FA S if the price isn't too high. I like the idea of someone like Kenny Phillips if the Giants don't re-sign him due to cap reasons (his injury history may keep his market value down). But it's not a high priority with that nucleus in place, which is a huge step forward from 6 weeks ago.
I think that kind of stability is worth paying up front for. In addition, going in to this season we were looking at Pat Chung and Kyle Arrington as starting DBs being FAs after this season, and the prospect of having to pay $5-6M/year to Chung and possibly close to that much to Arrington. That's long gone. Chung is gone IMHO, and if Arrington stays it will be as a slot CB/STer at around $2-$2.5M/year. So there should be some money to spend on the DB position.
Is there risk to locking Talib up this early? Sure. Look at the Pros and Cons:
- Pros: Probably get Talib cheaper than if we waited, plus the long term stability and security of having the secondary mostly set and being able to develop the defense accordingly
- Cons: Paying big money to Talib after a short time only to have him implode given his off-field history, plus the usual risk of injury and effect on other areas of the team that goes with any significant contract
While we haven't had a year or two to evaluate Talib, the Pats have had more time than they had with an outside FA like Adalius Thomas. And so far things have looked very promising, on both sides. Talib clearly has embraces being a Patriot and the Patriot way. He's talked about finding a "home" and the excitement of playing on a winner. Mike Reiss noted last week that Talib respectfully declined being interviewed for Reiss' "Football Journeys" series because he said that he wanted the focus to be on the team, not on him. That sounds like a Patriot. The players have been vocal about his work ethic and attitude - not just the secondary, but other defensive players, and guys like Brady, too. And BB had this uncommonly candid comment after the Houston game:
It Is What It Is » Bill Belichick: Niners defense ‘really impressive’
That's practically gushing, coming from BB. Usually he answers such questions with something like "Well, I think he did some good things, and he could have done some things better; we'll have to look at the film and see" or something to that effect.
Sure, it's early. Sure, it's a bit of a risk. But given where we've been and where we seem to be heading since Talib arrived, I think it's a risk worth taking if Talib wants to stay a Patriot. He's better than guys like Brandon Carr, Cortland Finnegan and Jason McCourty. At his best he's a $10-12M/year CB. His history probably won't let him get that, even if he plays well this year and tests the market. If he's willing to take something in the $7M/year range in order to have a home and long term security (maybe even a bit more, especially if there are some protections built in), I think it would be well worth it to lock him up early and not be band-aiding the secondary any more.