Is Keeping Hernandez and Gronkowski the Reason Welker is Without an Extension?

[mayoclinic]

I'm sure Kraft, BB and most everyone in the organization would like WW to be a Patriot for life. Who wouldn't? But at what cost? That's the key question. I'm sure the Pats would have liked to have retained Richard Seymour, too. But it became clear that they weren't going to be able to keep both Seymour and Wilfork, and they made a choice.

I can't speak for others, but to clarify my view:

1. WW is the greatest slot receiver of all time, and a tremendous asset to the team. He's also a perfect representative of the Patriots.

2. 2011 was probably a career year for Welker. He set highs in receiving and total yardage and TDs, and was close to his career highs in receptions and YPC. Particularly given the additional weapons on offense, it is reasonable to expect that Welker probably won't replicate those numbers in 2012. As Ian points out in his article, Welker's 2011 numbers started off at an incredible pace, and then tailed off considerably over the second half of the season.

3. I don't think it's unreasonable to say that the Pats' offense could benefit form some more diversification in terms of how the offensive weapons are used. Welker never made Brady throw the ball to him and he was always an unselfish player, but he was targed the 2nd most of any receiver in the NFL in 2011, and that's probably too much. While I don't think that the offense would be better off without Welker, I do think that the offense could imrove overall by changing some of it's focus, which would involve reducing Welker's role.

So I don't think it's a stretch to say that Welker's role moving forward will probably not be quite as great as it has been over the past 5 years, though no one knows for sure. Welker's role to some extent has been so great because he's been so great, and if he proves himself better than the alternatives it will be hard not to justify targeting him. But I'm guessing that we'll see a moderately reduced role over the next 2 years, assuming he remains with the team, and probably more of a reduced role after that. The question becomes, how much is it reasonably to pay beyond the next 2 years for that likely role, given the other contract priorities on offense?

I'd love to see Welker a Patriot for life. But I wouldn't be surprise to see that "life" limited to 1-2 years, either, unless he's willing to take a markedly reduced cap hit beyond 2013.

Well, according to Robert Kraft, who seems to have some sort of important role with the team, the Patriots want to keep Welker for the long term.

Kraft: "We'd like to see Welker a Patriot for life" | Patriots Blog | providencejournal.com | The Providence Journal

According to a few people here, that's not true.

According to at least one poster last year, Welker was going to be an impediment to Gronk and Hernandez, and having the 3 of them together was never going to work.

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the Kraft guy might have a better feel for the pulse of the team than the other groups.

 

[UK_Pat37]

Well, according to Robert Kraft, who seems to have some sort of important role with the team, the Patriots want to keep Welker for the long term.



Kraft: "We'd like to see Welker a Patriot for life" | Patriots Blog | providencejournal.com | The Providence Journal

According to a few people here, that's not true.

According to at least one poster last year, Welker was going to be an impediment to Gronk and Hernandez, and having the 3 of them together was never going to work.

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the Kraft guy might have a better feel for the pulse of the team than the other groups.

Because he's going to come out and tell the truth, if what a fair few people have been saying is true? Of course he isn't. Of course the team want him for life, but for as much as Welker is thinking? No chance. They'd love to keep him until he can retired because he's a great guy and player, but unless he buys into the Patriots line of thinking (which not many players can do) then he's not going to be here for more than one more year.

The Pats never discuss their logic behind their deals. I'm sure they'd like to keep a lot of players for life...it sadly doesn't work that way or as easily as some like to think.

Sorry to burst the Welker bubble!

 

[LivinLovin&Breathin_Brady]

Kraft is just saying all the right things. Doesn't mean he means it, it's a business after all.

If Ochocinco picks up the playbook and finally understands the offense this year, I think Welker will be traded...to the Jets for Tebow(for future purposes). Then again I'm not even sure if Gronk is gonna be GRONK! with that ankle injury. I guess holding Welker for one more year ain't bad.

 

[borg]

It still amazes me that so many people are quick to get rid of Tom Brady's greatest weapons, Wes Welker. He is the greatest slot receiver the Patriots have EVER had. I'm not sure we all quite grasp his importance to this team.

That may be....but if the team has to prioritize, I stack 'em
1) Freak....Gronk...6'-7" target
2) Mismatch nightmare...Hernandez
3) Slot guy 5'-1" target getting same production that Troy Brown had

On top of that....the above 3 work the middle of the field which at times has been a debilitating bunch up vs certain Ds....Jets/Giants. Weighing priorities, assigning values, and shifting resources....I have Welker as easiest to replace...and I'm not trying to replace 100 catches. Achieving a WR production balance has some value

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm sure Kraft, BB and most everyone in the organization would like WW to be a Patriot for life. Who wouldn't? But at what cost? That's the key question. I'm sure the Pats would have liked to have retained Richard Seymour, too. But it became clear that they weren't going to be able to keep both Seymour and Wilfork, and they made a choice.

I'm not going into the Seymour thing again. I find that the arguments justifying the move are not persuasive, and I'll leave it at that.

I can't speak for others, but to clarify my view:

1. WW is the greatest slot receiver of all time, and a tremendous asset to the team. He's also a perfect representative of the Patriots.

I'd say that the Brady robot is more what BB considers a perfect representative of the Patriots than the more playful Welker, but that's just a small thing.

2. 2011 was probably a career year for Welker. He set highs in receiving and total yardage and TDs, and was close to his career highs in receptions and YPC. Particularly given the additional weapons on offense, it is reasonable to expect that Welker probably won't replicate those numbers in 2012. As Ian points out in his article, Welker's 2011 numbers started off at an incredible pace, and then tailed off considerably over the second half of the season.

Numbers for offenses in general tailed off over the course of the season, and the Patriots were clearly exploiting matchup weaknesses (teams played in the second half included Chiefs/Eagles/Giants/Redskins/Broncos/Dolphins/Jets, which were generally much better on the corners than at safety) so I don't see this as an issue. As for the new players coming in, there's still just going to be one football, and all the new players should also mean that Gronk's numbers take a dip, too. Using the logic being tossed around in this thread, that should mean that Gronk's fit to be traded or at least given a low-ball contract offer.

Gronk had 90 catches and Hernandez had 79. That's 169 catches from the tight ends. Branch, a player that some seem to forget played for the Patriots last year, had 51 catches as the 'other' starting receiver. Now, it's quite possible that we'll see a 20+ reception dip in Welker's numbers and a 20 reception uptick in the Branch position numbers, but Lloyd's career high is 77 catches, so that would be closing in on that mark. It's also quite possible that we'll see a 20 reception dip in Gronk's numbers, or a 10-20 reception dip in Hernandez numbers. The approach the team will take seems likely to be similar to 2007, where the Patriots were tossing out a 5-man 'receiving' group of Welker, Moss, Stallworth, Gaffney and Watson, and still getting Faulk 47 receptions. Even in that season, though, Welker had 112 catches, so making the equation of "More options = Welker's much less useful" has no basis in the history of the Patriots with Welker on the team. If the team started throwing the ball around enough that Welker ended up in the 90-100 catch range, he'd still be worth a very nice contract.

3. I don't think it's unreasonable to say that the Pats' offense could benefit form some more diversification in terms of how the offensive weapons are used.

It's not unreasonable to say that the Patriots offense could benefit from any number of things, including throwing the ball to Welker more/less/same.

Welker never made Brady throw the ball to him and he was always an unselfish player, but he was targed the 2nd most of any receiver in the NFL in 2011, and that's probably too much.

That makes no sense to me, at all. The offense put up historic numbers on the back of that "too much".

While I don't think that the offense would be better off without Welker, I do think that the offense could imrove overall by changing some of it's focus, which would involve reducing Welker's role.

The offense could improve in many different ways. The problem with your argument is that you're taking a personal preference and acting as if it's significant. It's not. The Patriots offense was so good that it carried the team to the Super Bowl. It was limited in its ability to stretch the field middle-deep, and that's been dealt with. This need for "improvement" elsewhere in the passing game is mythical. People seem to be confusing "would be nice" with "really needed".

So I don't think it's a stretch to say that Welker's role moving forward will probably not be quite as great as it has been over the past 5 years, though no one knows for sure.

Given that he's been setting and shattering records in the past 5 years, that's a safe bet, but a meaningless one as well. It's not a stretch to make the same sort of guesses about Brady's next 5 years, either. That doesn't mean you short Brady, or ditch him.

Welker's role to some extent has been so great because he's been so great, and if he proves himself better than the alternatives it will be hard not to justify targeting him. But I'm guessing that we'll see a moderately reduced role over the next 2 years, assuming he remains with the team, and probably more of a reduced role after that. The question becomes, how much is it reasonably to pay beyond the next 2 years for that likely role, given the other contract priorities on offense?

In football, it's generally best to make your best players your priority. In essence, you're trying to make an argument for doing the opposite. I reject that argument.

I'd love to see Welker a Patriot for life. But I wouldn't be surprise to see that "life" limited to 1-2 years, either, unless he's willing to take a markedly reduced cap hit beyond 2013.

I expect that he'll get a 3-4 year deal at good/very good, though not elite, money. If the Patriots are stupid enough to let him get away, that'll be on them, and it'll make the offense easier to defend.

 

[Deus Irae]

Because he's going to come out and tell the truth, if what a fair few people have been saying is true? Of course he isn't. Of course the team want him for life, but for as much as Welker is thinking? No chance. They'd love to keep him until he can retired because he's a great guy and player, but unless he buys into the Patriots line of thinking (which not many players can do) then he's not going to be here for more than one more year.

The Pats never discuss their logic behind their deals. I'm sure they'd like to keep a lot of players for life...it sadly doesn't work that way or as easily as some like to think.

Sorry to burst the Welker bubble!

The anti-Welker people have been getting it wrong for a while. You, being one of them, aren't bursting any bubbles.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Kraft is just saying all the right things. Doesn't mean he means it, it's a business after all.

If Ochocinco picks up the playbook and finally understands the offense this year, I think Welker will be traded...to the Jets for Tebow(for future purposes). Then again I'm not even sure if Gronk is gonna be GRONK! with that ankle injury. I guess holding Welker for one more year ain't bad.

 

[UK_Pat37]

I expect that he'll get a 3-4 year deal at good/very good, though not elite, money. If the Patriots are stupid enough to let him get away, that'll be on them, and it'll make the offense easier to defend.

Because putting 11 men up to the box and man handling him isn't easy? On the contrary, it was almost too easy at times last year. He had some great moments, but there were weeks we were wondering where on earth the offense was, especially at the start of games.

Where was the elite-ness of Wes Welker and his game breaking ability there? When we went through those phases, and I was calling it out all through last season, I was looking for Welker and what he was doing and he was struggling to get off the line.

I really don't want to look like I hate or am trying to tarnish Welker here because I'm not, but he;s not a natural split end and I often wonder what our offense would be like without the vast weapons we have had the luxury of having if we had solely Welker...

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Well, according to Robert Kraft, who seems to have some sort of important role with the team, the Patriots want to keep Welker for the long term.


I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the Kraft guy might have a better feel for the pulse of the team than the other groups.

Bobby,
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometime, you just might find, you get what you need.

This Welk fan is "evolving" his opinion to the view that Welk is only gonna get a 2 year deal from the Pats. The franchise is focused on keeping 2 healthy TE stars long term.

 

[Deus Irae]

Because putting 11 men up to the box and man handling him isn't easy? On the contrary, it was almost too easy at times last year. He had some great moments, but there were weeks we were wondering where on earth the offense was, especially at the start of games.

Where was the elite-ness of Wes Welker and his game breaking ability there? When we went through those phases, and I was calling it out all through last season, I was looking for Welker and what he was doing and he was struggling to get off the line.

I really don't want to look like I hate or am trying to tarnish Welker here because I'm not, but he;s not a natural split end and I often wonder what our offense would be like without the vast weapons we have had the luxury of having if we had solely Welker...

There's so much fail here that it's not really worth delving into. Suffice it to say that Brady being injured contributed mightily to the early game struggles.

 

[UK_Pat37]

There's so much fail here that it's not really worth delving into. Suffice it to say that Brady being injured contributed mightily to the early game struggles.

There really isn't, you're just doing you're usual trend of someone disagrees with you, makes a point, and you just go slate someone else's opinion because it isn't the same as yours

There were a few factors to early game struggles, Brady being injured at time contributed for sure. But you don't need to be a football whiz to go back over those games an analyse a player...which I do a lot of to pass the time...and there were struggles from Welker. He's struggled a fair few times as a split end.

He isn't a natural split end and I don't think it's absurd to say that the Pats would survive with what they currently have and not having Welker outside of the numbers.

 

[Deus Irae]

There really isn't, you're just doing you're usual trend of someone disagrees with you, makes a point, and you just go slate someone else's opinion because it isn't the same as yours

There were a few factors to early game struggles, Brady being injured at time contributed for sure. But you don't need to be a football whiz to go back over those games an analyse a player...which I do a lot of to pass the time...and there were struggles from Welker. He's struggled a fair few times as a split end.

He isn't a natural split end and I don't think it's absurd to say that the Pats would survive with what they currently have and not having Welker outside of the numbers.

You didn't really make any points, which was my point. Your neglect of Brady's injury earlier, and your minimizing it here, just shows that you're coming from a needlessly biased position rather than looking at this honestly. in the absence of injury, the "early games" argument would apply equally to every player on the offense, after all, yet you're trying to wield it as a sword against Welker. That should have tipped you off.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Kraft is just saying all the right things. Doesn't mean he means it, it's a business after all.

If Ochocinco picks up the playbook and finally understands the offense this year, I think Welker will be traded...to the Jets for Tebow(for future purposes). Then again I'm not even sure if Gronk is gonna be GRONK! with that ankle injury. I guess holding Welker for one more year ain't bad.

What the hell would we want Tebow for? And we definitely wouldn't trade Welker to the Jets of all teams!

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I don't think this article makes a lot of sense.

This has everything to do with Wes Welker. Who knows whether Gronkowski and/or Hernandez will be the same in another two years. The don't even play the same position as WW. Are we supposed to hold up the franchise's ability to sign good players until 2015?

The question is how long Welker will still produce at an elite level. He's had a lot of "mileage" in terms of catches and hits, and he's 31 years old. This is a difficult age to negotiate a contract because receivers typically drop off in production sometime between 30 and 34. The question is which will it be for Welker? It's the amount of years of the contract that is holding up this deal- not Gronkowski or Hernandez.

 

[Off The Grid]

Yep.

I've been saying all along that while Wes Welker is The Greatest Slot End in the History of the Universe...

1 ~ If you're in the business of winning Super Bowls ~ and we are ~ then of course you prioritize Hybrids like Rob Gronkowski and Aaron the Navigator over Welker, who is only dangerous as a Slot Receiver.

2 ~ When the G+H RailRoad is up for a raise in 2 years ~ and I've been saying this all along ~ that is when I believe it makes sense to cut Welker loose, unless he's willing to extend at a greatly reduced rate: 2014 is where Age + Salary Cap converge to make that the right move for us, though I worship Wes Welker.

3 ~ What we have here is an Historic 24 Month Window of Opportunity: Gronk, Hernandez, and Welker offer domination of the middle of the ChessBoard that no other team comes within light years of matching.

4 ~ And ~ in stark contrast to the frustrations of the last 24 months ~ we now suddenly have an incredibly deep arsenal of talented, dangerous, and Patriot Proven Slot Ends and Flankers, in Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Deion Branch, and Donte StallWorth, to spread the Safeties out and give Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Welker far more room to navigate then they've ever had!!

So I say: Let's keep Wes around for the next year or two, but then, yeah:

Let's ride the G+H RailRoad for the decade!! :rocker:

The only potential fly in the ointment is whether or not Hernandez is willing to remain "second fiddle" to GRONK.

Huh???

1 ~ After this coming year, I don't believe that Aaron The Navigator will be "second fiddle" to anyone.

2 ~ Hernandez and Gronkowski have two very different roles on this team.

3 ~ ATN resenting being "second fiddle" would be like the Right Tackle being jealous of the Left.

4 ~ In any case: If we pay him what he's worth, I highly doubt he'll want to leave Camelot.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Don't forget Tavon Wilson is also due for an extension in a few years

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Huh???

1 ~ After this coming year, I don't believe that Aaron The Navigator will be "second fiddle" to anyone.

2 ~ Hernandez and Gronkowski have two very different roles on this team.

3 ~ ATN resenting being "second fiddle" would be like the Right Tackle being jealous of the Left.

4 ~ In any case: If we pay him what he's worth, I highly doubt he'll want to leave Camelot.

As more and more college teams go to the spread offense, they should produce a ton of "move" TEs in the years to come, there is no real reason to break the bank for Hernandez.

Gronkowski on the other hand is a very rare asset. Over the past 70 years, we have seen only a few guys (Bavaro, Francis, Ditka and Mackey) with these type skills. Depending on his health, he is worth a top of the line contract. (Oddly for the 2013 draft, depending on how Eifert of ND runs, he has a chance to be the next Gronkowski.)

Welker falls in the category where decline is starting to affect his game. BB knows this from better than any of us and he won;t pay a premium for diminishing returns, especially if the gruaranteed money is larger than Wilfork's contract.

There is a compromise to be worked here, but it appears to me both sides have decided to wait until next year to discuss that compromise.

 

[mayoclinic]

As more and more college teams go to the spread offense, they should produce a ton of "move" TEs in the years to come, there is no real reason to break the bank for Hernandez.

Gronkowski on the other hand is a very rare asset. Over the past 70 years, we have seen only a few guys (Bavaro, Francis, Ditka and Mackey) with these type skills. Depending on his health, he is worth a top of the line contract. (Oddly for the 2013 draft, depending on how Eifert of ND runs, he has a chance to be the next Gronkowski.)

Welker falls in the category where decline is starting to affect his game. BB knows this from better than any of us and he won;t pay a premium for diminishing returns, especially if the gruaranteed money is larger than Wilfork's contract.

There is a compromise to be worked here, but it appears to me both sides have decided to wait until next year to discuss that compromise.

I totally agree with you about Gronk, but disagree with you about Hernandez. While colleges going to the spread may produce more "move TE" prospects, Hernandez is a relatively rare beast due to his RB background and fluidity in space. He's averaged over 780 yards from scrimmage and 6.5 TDs per season his first 2 years, despite missing 4 games due to injury. He's wellahead of guys like Jermichael Finley, Chris Cooley, Owen Daniels and Dallas Clark in terms of what they did that early in their careers. Having Gronk and the Pats' offense obviously helps, but Hernandez is a pretty rare breed.

I don't see a lot of impact move TEs at the Hernandez level in the college ranks right now. I see a ton of 6'6" 250-270# guys with nice skills - Jimmy Graham in 2010, Kyle Rudolph in 2011, Coby Fleener this year, Joseph Fauria, Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert in 2013, Austin Seferian-Jenkins in 2014-2015. Obviously, it's a long shot that any of the current college kids will become another Gronk, but at least there are some solid prospects in the pipeline. I'd be interested in who you think is a movement TE who will have Hernandez kind of impact currently in college?

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

The Patriots offense was so good that it carried the team to the Super Bowl.

Wait... what? Were there some secret PO games where the D screwed the pooch? They weren't as good as their point surrendered totals would make you think, but claiming the O carried the team to the SB is silly.

 

[Deus Irae]

Wait... what? Were there some secret PO games where the D screwed the pooch? They weren't as good as their point surrendered totals would make you think, but claiming the O carried the team to the SB is silly.

It's not silly at all, imo, and the NFL season consists of more than just the playoffs.