Is Keeping Hernandez and Gronkowski the Reason Welker is Without an Extension?

[Ring 6]

How would you know if he's an NFL caliber WR or not. When he had the opportunity in his rookie year he put up the 2nd best rookie season of any WR in the BB era, even though he had limited opportunities and had never played the position before....at any level.

Why isn't he earning any opportunities?
How do you know I'm not better than Brady but just didnt get the chance? The difference, of course, is Edelman has been given the chance and failed to get on the field. And when he has been on the field he has shown us why.

In the last 2 years, his lack of stats could be due more to a lack of opportunities than a lack of skill.

Skill creates opportunity.

He has played behind Wes Welker, who have rarely missed a snap. What snaps he has gotten in the regular offense are usually as a wide out and 4th or 5th option. The fact is that when Edelman has gotten the opportunity to get regular snaps at the slot receiver position, he has delivered very respectable numbers. Its just in the last 2 seasons, he hasn't had many opportunities.

That excuse is lame. If he were a capable recevier we wouldn't see the likes of 85, Underwood, Stanback, Aiken, Slater, Tate, etc, etc playing instead of him.
We created a slot TE to use Hernandez. That role could have gone to Edelman if he were capable.
Edleman has had plenty of opportunity to earn playing time, and when he has, he has shown little or nothing.
He played something like 15% of the snaps last year and produced virtually nothing.

I know you think highly of Brian Hoyer.

I do?

What has he done the last 2 years to justify your respect for his talents where are HIS stats. BTW - this isn't a knock on Hoyer. I know the Pats think highly of him, and the one time he actually has had a chance to play, he did quite well. Why isn't Edelman given the same respect for what he did the only time he's gotten regular looks at his natural position

Hoyer could be great and not play because Brady is greater. Edleman hasn't been better than the dregs listed above.

Andy you are certainly entitled to your opinion, and you may even be right, but, given his lack of opportunities, I'm wondering just what you are basing your opinion ON, when you say he's not an NFL caliber receiver

1) What he does when he is on the field
2) The fact that he cant get on the field while poor players do instead of him

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

How is it easier to replace the better player with the more unique LEVEL of skills?

Huh?

........dynamic duo thingy.........summation of the whole being greater than the parts......

 

[BradyFTW!]

Why isn't he earning any opportunities?
How do you know I'm not better than Brady but just didnt get the chance? The difference, of course, is Edelman has been given the chance and failed to get on the field. And when he has been on the field he has shown us why.

That's pretty much it in a nutshell, IMO. Edelman has had plenty of opportunities to see the field by beating out some pretty unimpressive competition at WR, and he's consistently failed to do so. This could mean two things:

1) He's just not a very good WR
2) His skillset mirrors Welker's too closely to use both of them, and there's pretty much no reason that you would ever sit Welker in favor of Edelman short of injury

I'd guess that it's both, but probably more of 1 and less of 2 than a lot of posters here would like. Have to think that Belichick would find a way to get him on the field if he was good enough to warrant it.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Both Gronk and AHern are great. However, together, the whole is even better than the two parts.

Getting to "the whole" without one means finding that unique talent to replace. Finding another AHern to compliment Gronk (who is the better player) would be more difficult.

How is it easier to replace Gronk than Hernandez? There is not another receiver in the NFL or college right now who can do what Gronk does. Would you honestly claim the same about Hernandez?

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't understand your argument. You are saying Gronk is headed toward potentially being the best TE ever, yet he is more easily replacable because you can find a lot of guys who do the same thing not nearly as well?

Hernandez is as much a product of the system as anything else. He is what he is. a small, quick agile TE, who isn't really a TE. His skillset is not that unique. What is unique is an offense finding ways to use that skillset.
Oh, and there is no way in the world Hernandez is more valuable than Welker. You only have to watch games to see that. Age and wear and tear must be considered in planning for the future, but this offense runs through Welker and sets up opportunities for Hernandez.

Both Gronk and AHern are great. However, together, the whole is even better than the two parts.

Getting to "the whole" without one means finding that unique talent to replace. Finding another AHern to compliment Gronk (who is the better player) would be more difficult.

Andy, I keep saying "x" and you keep repeating that I've said "y". You obviously view Hernandez as a system player and as a guy who's skill set is significantly lesser than Gronk's, as the underlined lines above indicate. I don't. I view them as both being unique assets, and I think the Pats should do everything possible to retain both. I've said that repeatedly. You're entitled to your opinion, but stop acting like it's the only conceivable possible opinion. Others don't necessarily share your view. And I'm sorry, but I watch plenty, and as far as I'm concerned there's no comparison between Welker's value and Hernandez' value for the long term. Not even close, and I don't see it the way you see it.

Regardless of your opinion or mine, the Pats will put a value on every single player. They are entering somewhat unchartered territory with both Gronk and Ahern - they've never had offensive skill guys that young with that kind of unique impact. It remains to be seen whether the Pats will be able to retain both, and how far they will be willing to go. Either guy or both could price themself out of the market, and part of the Pats' calculus will undoubtedly include an assessment of what alternatives they might have if either guy should leave. That's just basic business for them.

 

[everlong]

Roger Goodell decides the Patriots have too much talent, specifically for the Jets, and makes Welker, Gronk and Hernandez all UFA's. As a gift from his good heart he says I will allow you to franchise one of them. Who do the Patriots franchise? Gronkowski and I don't think they need a meeting to decide. Goodell realizes his mistake and takes the tag away from the Patriots and all three are once again UFA's.

How much do each earn on the open market?

Welker 3/24
Hernandez 5/45
Gronk 6/96

Those are my guesses. Considering Finley's contract I think I'm being generous to AH.

Calvin Johnson 96/1681 16TD
Gronkowski 90/1327 18TD (1 rushing)

And Gronk is also one of best blocking TE's to go with his offense. Johnson just got 8/132 with 60M of it guaranteed.

AH is a talent but there's more guys who fit his skill set or most of it than Gronk.

 

[mayoclinic]

Roger Goodell decides the Patriots have too much talent, specifically for the Jets, and makes Welker, Gronk and Hernandez all UFA's. As a gift from his good heart he says I will allow you to franchise one of them. Who do the Patriots franchise? Gronkowski and I don't think they need a meeting to decide. Goodell realizes his mistake and takes the tag away from the Patriots and all three are once again UFA's.

How much do each earn on the open market?

Welker 3/24
Hernandez 5/45
Gronk 6/96

Those are my guesses. Considering Finley's contract I think I'm being generous to AH.

Calvin Johnson 96/1681 16TD
Gronkowski 90/1327 18TD (1 rushing)

And Gronk is also one of best blocking TE's to go with his offense. Johnson just got 8/132 with 60M of it guaranteed.

AH is a talent but there's more guys who fit his skill set or most of it than Gronk.

In your analysis, I think Gronk is more likely to walk than Hernandez. Even Brady "only" got $48M guaranteed. I have a hard time seeing the Pats giving Gronk a $100M contract with upwards of $50M guaranteed, even at age 25. And while the team can use the franchise tag on him, the 2012 franchise tag for TEs was all of $5.5M. A holdout would be a distinct possibility.

I'm sure that Gronk will end up getting a bigger long term contract offer from the Pats than any player in team history other than Brady. But will it be enough? Calvin Johnson got $60M guaranteed. Larry Fitzgerald got $50M guaranteed. That's new territory for the team.

 

[everlong]

In your analysis, I think Gronk is more likely to walk than Hernandez. Even Brady "only" got $48M guaranteed. I have a hard time seeing the Pats giving Gronk a $100M contract with upwards of $50M guaranteed, even at age 25. And while the team can use the franchise tag on him, the 2012 franchise tag for TEs was all of $5.5M. A holdout would be a distinct possibility.

I'm sure that Gronk will end up getting a bigger long term contract offer from the Pats than any player in team history other than Brady. But will it be enough? Calvin Johnson got $60M guaranteed. Larry Fitzgerald got $50M guaranteed. That's new territory for the team.

I don't think he would reach the levels of guaranteed they got......yet. But yes if he wanted that type of contract he's as good as gone. My point was his overall value on the free market. I think they would end up franchising him two years in a row with because it would be far cheaper and risk adverse than handing him that type of contract. I'm not sure how into the money Gronk is but based on his pimping himself for the Madden cover and doing the Dunkin Donuts gig I'd say it matters. I'm not knocking him because the window of opportunity is short for these guys but still it's a factor.

If he has another monster year I think you try and get him inked to a 5/50 with 20 guaranteed and hope he'll do it. I think the Pats will play hardball though and make him play it out.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't think he would reach the levels of guaranteed they got......yet. But yes if he wanted that type of contract he's as good as gone. My point was his overall value on the free market. I think they would end up franchising him two years in a row with because it would be far cheaper and risk adverse than handing him that type of contract. I'm not sure how into the money Gronk is but based on his pimping himself for the Madden cover and doing the Dunkin Donuts gig I'd say it matters. I'm not knocking him because the window of opportunity is short for these guys but still it's a factor.

If he has another monster year I think you try and get him inked to a 5/50 with 20 guaranteed and hope he'll do it. I think the Pats will play hardball though and make him play it out.

It will be interesting to see how Gronk's long term situation plays out. Note that your 6/96 market prediction works out to $16M/year. I can't see the Pats paying that. I'm just guessing, but I would expect about $12M/year to be their limit. And the guaranteed money could be just as tricky as the total contract value. It's hard to see Gronk playing for $5.5M (or whatever the franchise tender for a TE is in 2014) when guys like Fitzgerald and Megatron are getting $50-60M guaranteed.

The 2013 draft class is loaded at the TE position. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Pats take one on day 2 or 3 in order to hedge their bets, unless Gronk is extended this year. The organization is very good at covering their flanks, as they have done with the Welker situation.

 

[everlong]

It will be interesting to see how Gronk's long term situation plays out. Note that your 6/96 market prediction works out to $16M/year. I can't see the Pats paying that. I'm just guessing, but I would expect about $12M/year to be their limit. And the guaranteed money could be just as tricky as the total contract value. It's hard to see Gronk playing for $5.5M (or whatever the franchise tender for a TE is in 2014) when guys like Fitzgerald and Megatron are getting $50-60M guaranteed.

The 2013 draft class is loaded at the TE position. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Pats take one on day 2 or 3 in order to hedge their bets, unless Gronk is extended this year. The organization is very good at covering their flanks, as they have done with the Welker situation.

I agree that 12 would probably be their ceiling but I also don't doubt they would try to make him play for the 5.4M tag and then he doesn't show until week 9 like Mankins. I also think they are too set in their ways at times. You can probably get him after next year much cheaper than the year after assuming this level of production or 80% of it continues. It will be really hard for him to duplicate last year but 80% of that is still pretty damn good.

 

[patfanken]

Why isn't he earning any opportunities?
How do you know I'm not better than Brady but just didnt get the chance? The difference, of course, is Edelman has been given the chance and failed to get on the field. And when he has been on the field he has shown us why.

Very fuzzy logic. Hypothetical - Matt Ryan shows up as a QB for the Pats. A proven top 15 QB for the last few years. How much does he play with Tom Brady in front of him? The answer is not at all, baring injuries. So I guess by YOUR logic, Ryan would be considered by you not to be viable NFL QB because he couldn't "earn" his way on the field.

In order to prove your point by ignoring 2 key points - First he's a slot receiver. He doesn't fair as well being outside the numbers, just like Welker. Just like Branch can't play anything but the Z.

He's had one time where he had the opportunity to get regular snaps at the position that best fills his skill set......and he PRODUCED. What can be simpler. Are you going to deny what happened?

Why do you want to keep penalizing him for not having great product when every shot he has had as a wide out he's was at BEST the 5th option.

Why do you even mention Tate when they played different positions

BOTTOM LINE - the truth is that you have NO idea what kind of receiver Edelman is, any more than I. And until Edelman has the opportunity to play the slot receiver position for a significant stretch of games, you have no idea how good or bad he is. All I know is that the one time he did have that opportunity he performed very well, given his experience. It's a LOT more, than what your basing your opinion on.

That excuse is lame. If he were a capable recevier we wouldn't see the likes of 85, Underwood, Stanback, Aiken, Slater, Tate, etc, etc playing instead of him.

Apples and oranges, Andy. Apples and Oranges. Edelman's skill set is as a slot receiver, and you are comparing him WR's It doesn't make your point any more valid. Dan Koppen would probably make a pretty poor LT, that hasn't stopped him from being a very good C for the last 9 season. Different positions

 

[BradyFTW!]

I don't think he would reach the levels of guaranteed they got......yet. But yes if he wanted that type of contract he's as good as gone. My point was his overall value on the free market. I think they would end up franchising him two years in a row with because it would be far cheaper and risk adverse than handing him that type of contract. I'm not sure how into the money Gronk is but based on his pimping himself for the Madden cover and doing the Dunkin Donuts gig I'd say it matters. I'm not knocking him because the window of opportunity is short for these guys but still it's a factor.

If he has another monster year I think you try and get him inked to a 5/50 with 20 guaranteed and hope he'll do it. I think the Pats will play hardball though and make him play it out.

Definitely, I'm with you. Gronk is worth more on the open market than anyone on this team other than Brady. That makes the question of who is more replaceable pretty much self-evident, as replaceability is one of the key factors that drives market value.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Very fuzzy logic. Hypothetical - Matt Ryan shows up as a QB for the Pats. A proven top 15 QB for the last few years. How much does he play with Tom Brady in front of him? The answer is not at all, baring injuries. So I guess by YOUR logic, Ryan would be considered by you not to be viable NFL QB because he couldn't "earn" his way on the field.

In order to prove your point by ignoring 2 key points - First he's a slot receiver. He doesn't fair as well being outside the numbers, just like Welker. Just like Branch can't play anything but the Z.

He's had one time where he had the opportunity to get regular snaps at the position that best fills his skill set......and he PRODUCED. What can be simpler. Are you going to deny what happened?

Why do you want to keep penalizing him for not having great product when every shot he has had as a wide out he's was at BEST the 5th option.

Why do you even mention Tate when they played different positions

BOTTOM LINE - the truth is that you have NO idea what kind of receiver Edelman is, any more than I. And until Edelman has the opportunity to play the slot receiver position for a significant stretch of games, you have no idea how good or bad he is. All I know is that the one time he did have that opportunity he performed very well, given his experience. It's a LOT more, than what your basing your opinion on.

On any given play, there is one quarterback on the field, versus 2-5 WRs. Last year, we had exactly one above-average WR. The other 1-4 guys, who were on the field over Edelman, were anywhere from "half-decent" to "terrible".

Granted, not every WR on the field is playing the same role, but there was a ton of opportunity for a good receiver, even if it's "just" another slot guy, to see the field. Belichick finds opportunities for players with the talent to warrant it, with only very rare exceptions.

Apples and oranges, Andy. Apples and Oranges. Edelman's skill set is as a slot receiver, and you are comparing him WR's It doesn't make your point any more valid. Dan Koppen would probably make a pretty poor LT, that hasn't stopped him from being a very good C for the last 9 season. Different positions

It is apples and oranges to an extent, but not to the degree that you seem to think it is. Edelman's skill-set is a little more general (less slot-specific) than Welker's, and even Welker lined up occasionally as an outside receiver. The skill-set redundancy could explain him seeing the field with less frequency, sure, but not almost never.

 

[JackBauer]

Very fuzzy logic. Hypothetical - Matt Ryan shows up as a QB for the Pats. A proven top 15 QB for the last few years. How much does he play with Tom Brady in front of him? The answer is not at all, baring injuries. So I guess by YOUR logic, Ryan would be considered by you not to be viable NFL QB because he couldn't "earn" his way on the field.

Preposterous. Matt Ryan has a long and visible track record (not a terribly great one, I might add).

Julian Edelman once got 300 yards receiving in a season.

It simply beggars belief to hypothesize the Patriots would keep a talented wideout on the bench given the crap they've had to trot out at the position recently.

I think Occam's Razor would lead us to the conclusion that he simply can't hold Welker's jockstrap (nor anyone else's, really), and that's all there is to it.

 

[everlong]

I think Occam's Razor would lead us to the conclusion that he simply can't hold Welker's jockstrap (nor anyone else's, really), and that's all there is to it.

He can't. In regards to getting on the field otherwise I think Gronk and Hernandez have taken any reps that might have gone his way using two guys in the slot on opposite side or using one of them out of the backfield. Edelman has been an epic failure coming out of the backfield. Out of the slot I think he could be servicable in a pinch but honestly if they cut him tomorrow he would be lucky to start as a slot on more than a couple of teams in the league.

 

[patfanken]

On any given play, there is one quarterback on the field, versus 2-5 WRs. Last year, we had exactly one above-average WR. The other 1-4 guys, who were on the field over Edelman, were anywhere from "half-decent" to "terrible".

Granted, not every WR on the field is playing the same role, but there was a ton of opportunity for a good receiver, even if it's "just" another slot guy, to see the field. Belichick finds opportunities for players with the talent to warrant it, with only very rare exceptions.

That's a fair point and one I thought about myself. But Edelman is a slot receiver, and he is playing behind the best slot receiver in NFL history. A guy who has missed very few snaps over the 3 years Edelman has been in the league.

The point of my Ryan/Brady analogy was to show that regardless of how good a guy might be, if the guy in front of him is better, he isn't going to see the field. I don't think its fair to compare him to wide outs. That's not his skill set. (see the Koppen/LT analogy - Just because Koppen is a good C, doesn't mean he can play LT, even if both are offensive line positions.)

BTW- its also very hard for us to evaluate ANY of those receivers who will play the 3rd WR after Lloyd, Welker, Gronk and Hernandez. How can we fairly evaluate the 5th option

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

How is it easier to replace Gronk than Hernandez? There is not another receiver in the NFL or college right now who can do what Gronk does. Would you honestly claim the same about Hernandez?

This such a simple concept, patsfaninpittsburgh is at a loss as to understand why this can't be comprehended.

Gronk is the best TE in the league.

AHern is probably the fourth best.

TOGETHER......they are even better as a duo than separate.

AHern has a unique skillset, it's not saying he's better but his talents are what allow for so many formations. That's why every announcer labels him the "X factor".

AGAIN, Gronk is the better but MORE TRADITIONAL TE.

BTW, the kid in New orleans is pretty good and works with a pretty good skill position group.

 

[patfanken]

Preposterous. Matt Ryan has a long and visible track record (not a terribly great one, I might add).

It was an analogy, Jack. If you prefer use any QB, not named Manning or Brees, and it still works. No matter how good your are, if the guy in front of you is better, you don't get snaps

Julian Edelman once got 300 yards receiving in a season.

That's 360 Jack, plus another 70 in a playoff game. Only Branch had more (486) as a rookie and he had more games and looks

It simply beggars belief to hypothesize the Patriots would keep a talented wideout on the bench given the crap they've had to trot out at the position recently.

It doesn't if you consider slot receiver skills and WR skills as being different

I think Occam's Razor would lead us to the conclusion that he simply can't hold Welker's jockstrap (nor anyone else's, really), and that's all there is to it.

No one can hold Welker's jock as far as being a slot receiver....and Occam just called and wants his razor back.

 

[JackBauer]

It was an analogy, Jack. If you prefer use any QB, not named Manning or Brees, and it still works. No matter how good your are, if the guy in front of you is better, you don't get snaps

That's 360 Jack, plus another 70 in a playoff game. Only Branch had more (486) as a rookie and he had more games and looks
It doesn't if you consider slot receiver skills and WR skills as being different

No one can hold Welker's jock as far as being a slot receiver....and Occam just called and wants his razor back.

So by this logic every backup on the roster might be really secretly covertly awesome but no one would know it because they're being blocked by another, superior player at their position.

I mean, yeah, Edelman might be good. There's just not much evidence to suggest he is. And I am rather skeptical of the postulation that, were he any good, the coaching staff wouldn't figure out a way to get him on the field more often.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

So by this logic every backup on the roster might be really secretly covertly awesome but no one would know it because they're being blocked by another, superior player at their position.

I mean, yeah, Edelman might be good. There's just not much evidence to suggest he is. And I am rather skeptical of the postulation that, were he any good, the coaching staff wouldn't figure out a way to get him on the field more often.

Jack

Have you discussed this with Drew Bledoe?