Is Keeping Hernandez and Gronkowski the Reason Welker is Without an Extension?

[Ring 6]

Very fuzzy logic. Hypothetical - Matt Ryan shows up as a QB for the Pats. A proven top 15 QB for the last few years. How much does he play with Tom Brady in front of him? The answer is not at all, baring injuries. So I guess by YOUR logic, Ryan would be considered by you not to be viable NFL QB because he couldn't "earn" his way on the field.

Its only fuzzy when you move the goalposts. Edelman isn't sitting behind Tom Brady. He is sitting behind Underwood, 85, Aiken Slater, Tate, and TEs.

In order to prove your point by ignoring 2 key points - First he's a slot receiver. He doesn't fair as well being outside the numbers, just like Welker. Just like Branch can't play anything but the Z.

Those are excuses. There would be a spot for him on the field if we a capable WR. If he can't supplant 85, he isn't good.

He's had one time where he had the opportunity to get regular snaps at the position that best fills his skill set......and he PRODUCED. What can be simpler. Are you going to deny what happened?

I am far less impressed than you by what he did with that opportunity, especially since he has done nothing with so many more.

Why do you want to keep penalizing him for not having great product when every shot he has had as a wide out he's was at BEST the 5th option.

Being 5th best on a team that has guys like 85, Underwood, etc as 4th or better.
You seem to want to argue that since he isn't good enough to be a target that is proof that he is a good target.

Why do you even mention Tate when they played different positions

They are both WRs. I am not buying your excuse that a team that uses 5 wides often has 5 different positions and limits Edelman to only be able to play one of them.

BOTTOM LINE - the truth is that you have NO idea what kind of receiver Edelman is, any more than I.

Why would I be giving my assessment of him if I had no idea? I am basing my opinion on what he does on the field and whether the coaching staff feels he deserves to play.
You want to dismiss those for pixie dust and unicorn tails.

And until Edelman has the opportunity to play the slot receiver position for a significant stretch of games, you have no idea how good or bad he is. All I know is that the one time he did have that opportunity he performed very well, given his experience. It's a LOT more, than what your basing your opinion on.

No, I am basing my opinion on his career.

Apples and oranges, Andy. Apples and Oranges. Edelman's skill set is as a slot receiver, and you are comparing him WR's

Edelman is a WR. He has been a poor one. If you want to make an excuse for him that his skills are so limited that he might be able to do something well if there ever arises a chance for that to happen, you are not dealing in reality.

It doesn't make your point any more valid. Dan Koppen would probably make a pretty poor LT, that hasn't stopped him from being a very good C for the last 9 season. Different positions

We will have to agree to disagree, because I find the excuse that Edleman is a good WR but not really a WR laughable.

 

[Ring 6]

Andy, I keep saying "x" and you keep repeating that I've said "y".

You said Gronk is on his way to be the best TE ever, and I questioned why that would make him more replacable.

You obviously view Hernandez as a system player and as a guy who's skill set is significantly lesser than Gronk's, as the underlined lines above indicate.

The Patriots introduced a system that allowed Hernmandez to get on the field. On many teams he would rarely play, because he cannot play a traditional TE role. How is that not a product of the system?
That doesn't mean he lacks talent, it just means the use of his talent is more limited.

I don't. I view them as both being unique assets, and I think the Pats should do everything possible to retain both. I've said that repeatedly. You're entitled to your opinion, but stop acting like it's the only conceivable possible opinion.

Where have I said anything close to my opinion is the only one that couldbe right. You are strawmanning this to death.

Others don't necessarily share your view. And I'm sorry, but I watch plenty, and as far as I'm concerned there's no comparison between Welker's value and Hernandez' value for the long term. Not even close, and I don't see it the way you see it.

You really think that Hernandez was more valuable to the Patriots last year than Welker? Really?

Regardless of your opinion or mine, the Pats will put a value on every single player. They are entering somewhat unchartered territory with both Gronk and Ahern - they've never had offensive skill guys that young with that kind of unique impact. It remains to be seen whether the Pats will be able to retain both, and how far they will be willing to go. Either guy or both could price themself out of the market, and part of the Pats' calculus will undoubtedly include an assessment of what alternatives they might have if either guy should leave. That's just basic business for them.

Sure, thats the way it works. I'm not sure how that is relevant to the points we were disagreeing on.

 

[mgteich]

Hernandez and Edelman

HERNANDEZ
Hernandez is one of four top receivers. He is a wide receiver who occasionally lines up in the backfield and occasionally as a TE. Gaffney is our 5th target. Hernandez could be more valuable with the additions of 2 downfield threats (Lloyd and Gaffney), but it seems unlikely.

WELKER
I don't expect Welker to play here beyond 2013. Whether he signs a long-term contract though 2014 is somewhat irrelevant. We're not paying huge money for 3 receivers, and Welker will be the odd man out in 2014. HOWEVER, the team could sign a contract with Welker will a low cap hit in 2014 and keep him one last year.

EDELMAN
Edelman is an emergency #5 receiver (with Slater as #6). His value in 2011 was as a punt returner, special teamer and as a defensive back. That being said, I am fine with Edelman on the squad as a special teamer and punt returner. And yes, just BTW, Edelman is an emergency backup at slot receiver.

We will have enough receiving targets in Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Lloyd, Gaffney plus a running back. We will even have an addition receiver on the 53 man squad in case of injury (Stallworth, Johnson or Branch). Edelman would be the 8th or 9th or 10th receiving option (perhaps even after a second RB/FB and the 3rd TE.

For me, Edelman is the perfect inexpensive utility player #51, #52 or #53 for the 2012 roster.

BOTTOM LINE
Yes, the future extensions of Gronkowski and Hernandez do affect what the team will pay for Welker. If Welker is paid $10M a year through 2014, how much should Gronk expect? How much should Hernandez expect? I do NOT expect Welker to be more valuable in 2014 than either Gronk or Hernandez.

One option is to try to sign Welker to a 2-year $20M contract, with $15M guaranteed. That would leave a 2013 cap hit of $8M ($10M 2012 salary, $4M bonus, $6M 2012 salary). Welker would receive only $6M of new money in 2013.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Time for me to hop in.

I see both arguments, but I lean towards Andy and Jack. We have put Underwood, Slater, Ocho, Tate on the field over him. He looked great as a rookie but ever since then he has always looked clueless on the field.

-He was the reason for Hoyer's only INT.
-He got owned by Webb on an INT because he didn't even locate or go for the ball really in the AFCCG.
-He has generally looked like crap (dropping passes) in the minimum snaps he has gotten on the field.

It really is a shame because he looked like a potential future stud his rookie year. Julian Edelman The Future - YouTube

 

[supafly]

I see the management of the cap obviously taking into acct the fact that we will likely be putting a high priority on keeping our young TE's, so yes--that does come into play, at least on some level.

But even stepping away from that situation and pretending that the TE's aren't here, I still think that the front office would not be overpaying Welker all the same.

We have seen many examples of the NEP playing hardball when it comes to negotiations, and they will always put the benefit of the team as a whole in front of one particular player. For that we can be thankful, as they always seem to look at the bigger picture and have an eye on the future.

In this case I am guessing that it is a bit of a hard decision considering what Welker has done for this franchise, what he means to the team and the fans, and the fact that he truly represents the "Patriot Way" on many levels. The guy has played his heart out, and will likely continue to do so for at least another couple of yrs without too much downside.

The best of both worlds situation would obviously be keeping Welker on a reasonable 2-3 year deal, while also signing one of the TE's during the season or shortly thereafter. I think that Welker will see the light and eventually realize that he will definitely be a well paid man one way or another, thus allowing him to stay here with a successful franchise and his good friends. I'm certainly hoping that there is at least some ongoing communication between the two sides, and am holding out hope that they can get it done.

 

[rookBoston]

Edelman is a viable slot receiver, and if Welker were hurt or gone, I'd feel pretty okay running him out there in the starting lineup. There's going to be a drop off, but what do we expect coming down from one of the all time best at the position? I'm with Ken that comparing Edelman to Tate, Underwood and Slater is in the moral equivalent to comparing Ryan Wendell to Matt Light, and then claiming that because BB drafted Cannon and Solder, it's obviously a vote of no confidence in Wendell.

Regarding the OP, Im sure the brain trust are wondering and worried what they're going to do with two young stud TEs who have singlehandedly changed how NFL teams are building their rosters, both on O and D. But, I don't think it is a simple tradeoff between Welker or Gronkandez. I think it's useful for fans to use the young TEs as a lens to put a value to cap space, but it is way more complicated than "Gronkandez or Wes, who do you want?" Solder will need a contract, so will McCourty, so will Gostkowski, so will Chung, so will a dozen other guys including players who aren't on the roster. Some of them will walk.

What I disagee with is the premise that BB will break the bank for Gronkandez, because they are so critical to the offense, and so he has to pass on signing Welker beyond 2013. If we lose one of them, because it's unaffordable to keep both, the O will take the shape of the talent that BB chooses to spend his cap space on instead. Just like the O changed after Corey Dillon retired, and the O changed after we dropped Randy Moss, it will change when we lose Welker or Gronkowski or Hernandez or all of them. And it will be okay, because we'll have other weapons on the roster to make up the gap. Free agents made affordable because we didn't spend huge money on Wes and Rob. And new rookies brought in for the draft picks we acquired in trading them away.

If BB can sign Wes to a well structured deal that is fair value for what he'll provide the team, he'll do it. That may mean Rob or Aaron are traded away before they come into their contract years. If Wes wants more than BB is prepared to give he may be traded, or allowed to walk. But that doesn't mean BB will be ready to pay Gronkandez full market value in excess of his valuation. He'll pay each of them something close to the number he has in his head, or find other players on the waiver wire who are value for money and assemble a new team with a new scheme designed around what THOSE players do well.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Edelman is a viable slot receiver, and if Welker were hurt or gone, I'd feel pretty okay running him out there in the starting lineup. There's going to be a drop off, but what do we expect coming down from one of the all time best at the position? I'm with Ken that comparing Edelman to Tate, Underwood and Slater is in the moral equivalent to comparing Ryan Wendell to Matt Light, and then claiming that because BB drafted Cannon and Solder, it's obviously a vote of no confidence in Wendell.

Regarding the OP, Im sure the brain trust are wondering and worried what they're going to do with two young stud TEs who have singlehandedly changed how NFL teams are building their rosters, both on O and D. But, I don't think it is a simple tradeoff between Welker or Gronkandez. I think it's useful for fans to use the young TEs as a lens to put a value to cap space, but it is way more complicated than "Gronkandez or Wes, who do you want?" Solder will need a contract, so will McCourty, so will Gostkowski, so will Chung, so will a dozen other guys including players who aren't on the roster. Some of them will walk.

What I disagee with is the premise that BB will break the bank for Gronkandez, because they are so critical to the offense, and so he has to pass on signing Welker beyond 2013. If we lose one of them, because it's unaffordable to keep both, the O will take the shape of the talent that BB chooses to spend his cap space on instead. Just like the O changed after Corey Dillon retired, and the O changed after we dropped Randy Moss, it will change when we lose Welker or Gronkowski or Hernandez or all of them. And it will be okay, because we'll have other weapons on the roster to make up the gap. Free agents made affordable because we didn't spend huge money on Wes and Rob. And new rookies brought in for the draft picks we acquired in trading them away.

If BB can sign Wes to a well structured deal that is fair value for what he'll provide the team, he'll do it. That may mean Rob or Aaron are traded away before they come into their contract years. If Wes wants more than BB is prepared to give he may be traded, or allowed to walk. But that doesn't mean BB will be ready to pay Gronkandez full market value in excess of his valuation. He'll pay each of them something close to the number he has in his head, or find other players on the waiver wire who are value for money and assemble a new team with a new scheme designed around what THOSE players do well.

Good post, although I think the pushback on Edleman is counter the exageration many of his replacement proponents adopt in comparing his limited production to Welker's and projecting him as viable to replace that. Believe me, if Bill believed he was Wes wouldn't have had to play through so many injuries or started a fateful late game in 2009 or been allowed to battle through rehab in 2010. He's OK in a pinch, and decent short term insurance, but long term he's a replacement who would give me serious pause as DC's adapt and adjust to him. Something they've struggled to do with Welker even when he had less to work with. And there is no reason to believe he'd be nearly as durable if he were asked to do what Welker has consistently done for the last 5 years. And I think he isn't adverse to using other than the waiver wire to replace talent. He knows he can draft or even trade for some. Same ways Welker and the two TE's came to exist here.

But you're right, Bill already has the broad parameters of deals in place for most of his players and he won't deviate too much from them because he's adept at roster turnover and team building from season to season because he knows that's the nature of both the game and the business these days. And I think he even enjoys that aspect of his job to some extent as he loves to teach and he deplores complacency. About the only guy on this roster he budge much for if push came to shove is the QB. Luckily that guy is never complacent and smart enough and committed enough and cares enough about the same things (winning, legacy) enough to not push him much past that parameter point. Because if he did what Manning always did or Brees is attempting to do, set the market by a substantial margin, he'd be gone, too.

I'm just not convinced that Welker has pushed them over any rational edge. If it turned out he has, then shame on him. I just think he's asking for a reasonable deal by standard measure and an opportunity to play out the string here, and for some reason they are insisting the string is pretty ridiculously short (like his stature so that likely really both ticks him off given it's always been the case and he's consistently outperformed even his own expectations over the last 8 NFL seasons and motivates him to make them regret (and hopefully rethink) that strategy). Unfortunately his own nature works against him in some respects because they know they can eff with him this season and still retain him next season and beyond if the price is remotely right because he really, really wants to finish his career here with TFB and in this offense.