Interesting Stat No One Has Mentioned

Discussion in ' - Patriots Fan Forum' started by AndyJohnson, Feb 3, 2012.

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  1. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson Veteran Supporter

    When losing the turnover battle the Giants are 0-5.

    Patriots when losing the turnover battle are 4-2, including both playoff win.
  2. captain stone

    captain stone Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    No Jersey Selected

    The Pats defense absolutely has to somehow produce turnovers, which will at the very least change field position. Naturally, if the defense or STs could also score a TD, that would go a very long way toward securing victory, esp. if Brady can manage not to throw another 1st-quarter INT.

    Bottom line: if we don't win the turnover battle, we don't win the game.
  3. PatriotSeven

    PatriotSeven In the Starting Line-Up

    Not exactly. Not all turnovers are created equal.

    Most teams who lose the turnover battle loser their games. This is not a surprise. But if you go back and look through most of Brady's interceptions, it is evident him and some of the other elite quarterbacks in this league are operating under slightly different rules than your average NFL QB. Most up and coming elite QB's like Aaron, and Brady of 2007, become efficient strictly by not throwing picks. That's their first goal.

    But the more I look into it the more it's becoming increasingly evident to me guys like Brees and Brady are beyond that, and their understanding of the game is very much incorporated into their team's overall offensive strategies which means they're pushing the envelope by taking riskier shots. Resuming to a strictly 0 turnover mentality may actually hold the overall offensive attack back.

    Not all of Brady's interceptions are game killers. The majority of them happen near the opponent's red-zone, and usually happen with the game tied or up. Which is when they don't actually hurt you as much as you think. They hurt your offense, because you don't score, but not your defense. In a situation such as this, even though you turn over the ball, sometimes you're still the team that's expected to score next. At other times it's almost 50/50.

    And I don't think this is an accident, but I believe it to be part of the more aggressive passing strategy NE employs. Naturally you would rather have none, but the reason why some teams like the Saints and Pats can still win games with a -turnover margin has a lot to do with their quarterback's ability to understand the game of field position.

    He can throw a pick in the 1st quarter as long as we've already scored and its in the Giants red-zone area and doesn't get returned. We'd still be fine. Which is why Pats offense still comes out more efficient and win despite a - turnover margin. What we don't want are the interception or fumble in our own half, or a fumble off of a punt return.

    Sure, 0 would be ideal. But 1 turnover, depending on the type it is, won't kill this team against the Giants. Efficiency stats indicate the Giants need to be +2 to really come out ahead, and they're just about guaranteed to turnover the ball at least once as well. While not indicated, the Pats could get away with as many as 2 and still win the game. So it's not time to panic if it does indeed happen.

    What killed us against the Giants was the fumble in our own territory which resulted in 7 points. The first two interceptions only cost us 3 points combined, not nearly as bad as the 7 point fumble. The average turnover is valued at roughly 3.5 points, but it seems like the Pats have cut that value down in half for interceptions.
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2012
  4. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster Supporter

  5. PatriotSeven

    PatriotSeven In the Starting Line-Up

    Yeah. I came to the same conclusion using yards per point. You can see the math behind it all here. Anyone can do it.

    But even then, +1 for the Giants indicated a 33-32 win and that was considering the average turnover to be 3.5 points. The beautiful part in it all is that when you are en elite offense, a turnover by an opponent is worth more than 3.5 points to you, but a turnover by you is worth less than 3.5 points to them if they have an averagely efficient offense, indifferent of field position. And the Giants do in fact have an average efficient offense and defense, while the Pats are ranked #4 and #2 offensively and defensively.

    They need +2. +1 would still either equal Pats win or OT. Kind of like what happened with them and the 49ers. And exactly what happened in the first game. They needed +2 to win. +1 would have likely resulted in a 1 point win. Which also tells you something about the improvement of these teams. I used full season numbers, and they indicate the same exact thing that happened 3 months ago. They're the same teams.

    Which is why I'm not worried at all about this game. If they need +1 or +2 turnover margin just to win a close game...they better pray it doesn't go the other way. One thing's for sure though. They know this too and their defense will be coming on very hard to try to force fumbles.
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2012
  6. randomk1

    randomk1 In the Starting Line-Up

    #12 Jersey

    Brady has had some horrible picks in the playoffs so far...he really needs to protect the ball come sunday.


    #12 Jersey

    Turnovers of course are going to decide this game as it almost always is in SBs

    However suppose there are no turnovers in the game?.....then the advantage goes to the Patriots.

    I also think the team with the least penalties will win the game.
  8. andrewgarrr

    andrewgarrr Banned

    Something tells me that the team with the most points at the end will win!

    I've been calm and relaxed for almost two weeks, now I'm getting anxious.

    Go Pats.
  9. MP-Logick

    MP-Logick Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Adam Schefter pointed out today that the Pats have lost the turnover battle in their previous two games and won both...maybe a little regression to the mean is in order?
  10. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster Supporter

    I am looking to see Brady have a clean game this time after working with his QB mentor. Eli puts a couple a game up for grabs a pick and a error free game from Brady we win comfortably and shock the mediots.

    BTW when you look at the effects of Turn overs it makes you appreciate why BB likes Law Firm so much......

    Pats 34
    Giants 20.
  11. RelocatedPatFan

    RelocatedPatFan In the Starting Line-Up

    I heard onthe radio that the team with the better QB Rating vs Defensive Passer Rating has won 40 of the 45 SBs. I don't have the exact numbers, but Brady had the edge by 20+ points over Eli who had an 8+ point differential.
  12. DarrylS

    DarrylS Supporter Supporter

    The most important stat from the previous 45 Superbowls is that the team with the most points will win..
  13. Triumph

    Triumph Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    #75 Jersey

    Good find.

    I like Eli to throw a couple of pics this game.
  14. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson Veteran Supporter

    I disagree. We beat a better team in the AFCCG without winning the turnover battle.
    I would say this: The Giants MUST win the turnover battle to win the game. The Patriots have a better chance to win if they win the to battle, but can certainly win without it.
  15. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    #12 Jersey

    I've been preaching this for a long time. A turnover is worse than a punt only to the extent the opponents wind up with better field position after the TO than they would have after a punt. So if an incompletion forces a punt, and an INT is only a little worse than a punt, then it is also the case that an INT is only a little worse than an incompletion.

    And the not-so-impressive turnover argument goes both ways. 1 of Arrington's first 3 INTs this season was on a Hail Mary, where a knockdown would have exactly as good. Another of his first 3 INTs was WORSE than a knockdown; it was a 4th-down pass, and his return came slightly short of the original line of scrimmage.
  16. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah Supporter Supporter

    Disable Jersey

    Minimize TOs = BJGE & ! Ridley

    I like Rids and hope to see him play, play well and no TOs
  17. JJDChE

    JJDChE 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    That's something I've come across before. I don't want to go look through all the stats, but it seems to me that historically the Pats have had a very good winning percentage when being negative in turnover ratio, compared to the expected win %. I want to say I've heard that teams the are -1 win ~25% of the time, while teams that are -2 win <10% of the time. You would expect good teams to be on the better side of that average, but I think we're way above it.
  18. Gumby

    Gumby In the Starting Line-Up

    #11 Jersey

    Personally, I would call anything from 0-15 yards short of scrimmage a wash on a 4th down INT; unless it is an INT where he runs immediately out of bounds or falls down. If he catches it with an opportunity to return; then I will trade the 15 yards of field position for a 10% chance at a pick-6.
  19. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson Veteran Supporter

    Its like any other stat, it only tells part of the story.
    A halftime HailMary counts the same as a pick6 in a tie game.
    Also, just like winning leads to more rushing yards, winning leads to getting more and giving fewer turnovers.
  20. jnug

    jnug On the Game Day Roster

    I think BB will still be afraid to use Ridley. Fumbles are real killers as you are for the most part giving up the ball at or near the line of scrimmage.

    Ridley had his shot in the last game of the season and unfortunately fumbled again. In fact he fumbled once in each of the last two games. I don't think BB will let him in the game here unless it is far out of reach which is not likely.

    It is a real shame as Ridley is a threat. However that sounds great all the way up until the ball is on the ground and I think that is how BB sees it.
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