Idle thoughts - the Ma Nishtana edition.

[patfanken]

This title is going need some explanation for my gentile friends, but Patjew knows where I'm coming from. It comes from the Passover tradition. It is the opening line of the song the youngest son sings during the Seder when he asks the 4 questions. Ma Nishtana loosely translated means "why are things different?" or "how is this night different?"

I probably haven't been to a formal Seder in over 3 decades, but for some reason when the game ended and the mediots started all the "this is the Patriots worst fear" crap, this old traditional song from my youth came immediately to mind,

"Mah nishtanah, ha-laylah ha-zeh,mi-kol ha-leylotn"
What has made this night different from all the other night.
Or what has changed that makes this night different.

Well my friends, as it's related to next Saturday's game, the answer my friends is NOTHING!!!!!! Nothing changed at all. This is not even close to the caliber of team that beat us a home in 2009, or nearly as good as the team that beat us in 2012. More importantly, the Pats team they will be facing is MUCH better than either of those 2 Pats teams they beat.

The 2009 Pats team was pretty much the death knell of the of the group that BB had built for the glory years of 2003-7. It was also the only team I can think of in the BB era where there wasn't a good locker room. The next season BB cleaned house an the next iteration of the Pats started its rebuild.

The 2012 team was still in the rebuilding stages. The 2011 Superbowl run was really an outlier, much like 2001 was (only without the win). It also was a team hit with a lot of injuries that year and of course no Gronk.

You have to realize that all the relative success the team has had since 2010 hide the actual major transitioning the team was actually going through. The OL, DL, RB, TE's LB's and most of the DB's have all been turned over. The WR's have been turned over TWICE. Pretty much the only constants have been Vince, Brady, and BB and his staff. If you really think on it, its mind boggling how BB's done it and still turned out double digit wins every year. Even the other so called elite programs who have had long periods of sustained success have had a year or two of mediocre play to regroup. But I'm starting to ramble again. Back to the point of all this.

This is the team I wanted for this game. THIS is actually the (relatively) easiest game we could have gotten and here's why.

Comparing what the Ravens faced vs Pittsburgh, vs what they'll face vs the Pats.

Raven O vs the Pats D

a. The Steelers did a nice job of stopping the Raven run game. The Pats have done a nice job of stopping the run over the 2nd half of the year. Even if you consider those two 2oo yd games against the Jets and KC, they still finished 9th in the league in rush D, only 2yd/gm behind the Steelers. The Ravens only managed 49yds rushing this game. I don't think they came into this game expecting to rush much, and I doubt very much they will change their offensive focus vs the Pats.

b. The biggest difference the Ravens will see is the difference between the quality of the two secondaries. The Steelers have NO ONE even close to the skill level of Revis, McCourty, and Browner, and the Pats have face much better 3somes than SSmith, Daniels, and TSmith. If the Pats were forced to roll out a secondary of Ryan, Arrington, Wilson, Chung, Butler and Harmon, I'd take it over who the Steelers were forced to play with tonight.

BTW- when the Pats go man, I'm guessing they will start with matching up Browner on Steve and Revis on Torey. But that's just a guess for now

c. The overall concepts of what the Pats run for defenses are totally different that Pittsburgh's. Though as the secondary has continually improved along with the impact of the LB's, development, the Pats defense has been able to become a lot more creative, flexible, and aggressive. The front 7 is going to be a lot bigger challenge to the Ravens' O than it has in the past.

d. While not immobile Flacco doesn't present the mobility issues that would cause the dreaded "controlled blitz" to be rolled out. To that end I suspect the Ravens are going to have some pass protecting issues of their own.


Ravens D vs the Pats O

a. This will be a more competitive match up. The Ravens do have an excellent and aggressive front 7 who rush the pass well and are good against the run, but I find their top notch stats a bit misleading. Remember the Ravens have had one of the easier schedules this year. Here are some point totals when the faced even decent offenses: Chargers 34 (at home); Steelers 43 (road); Bengals 27 (road); Saints 27 (road).

In fact even in their win tonight, the Ravens gave up over 430 yds of offense, plus benefited from 3 turnovers and 114 yds of penalties (vs 14) In every instance the Ravens have faced a decent offense, that offense put up points against them. I expect no less from ours. My estimate of our point total next week starts at 27.

b. Their secondary isn't as bad as the Steeler one, but not much better. Again the Steeler passing attack managed to crease them for 350 yds of passing despite the penalties and consistent pass rush.

c. Dean Pease was very creative last night with his blitz packages, as well as effective with them. But the Pats pass offense is a much different one than the Steelers', and what worked to the tune of 4 sacks last night is gong to have to be different. Our OL, flawed though it is, is leaps and bounds better than the Steelers.

d. My biggest fear is on the OL. The Ravens do possess one good perceived match up. They have 2 big/physical inside rushers who can push the middle. But so did the Bills and Lions, who had DL's just as good and were pretty much controlled

e. I see this as being a spread them out kind of game. I don't see the Pats attempting to line up and try to run the ball on a consistent basis. Anything over 20 runs in this game is going to mean they are sitting on a big lead.

f. Heath Miller who is a fine TE in his own right - but nothing special - had 80 yards tonight. In their past wins here, they haven't had Gronk to deal with.

g. Brady is one of the best QB's in the league in dealing with a blitzing D. Its also easier when you are at home.

Can the Ravens win? Of course they can. But to my mind it will take big plays for that to happen. Big plays on offense, turnovers, defensive and ST scores. It also won't hurt if they get a 10-1 penalty advantage like they did tonight. Things like that happen and they can win. So can any team if they get them. Perhaps the best thing the Ravens have going for them is they THINK they can win here. But really, I know they can't, and Bill knows they shouldn't.


BOTTOM LINE

We are going to hear a lot of "Ravens fear" talk this week from the mediots. Listen if you must, but remember the key points. They have a lot of their own bad match ups, and who have they played? Remember the best offense they've allowed less than 24 points in the last 3/4's of the year were the Dolphins.

Well that's the broad view. I look forward to getting into a lot more detail in this and other threads this week

 

[Danger Zone]

An odd tidbit for you..

Of the starting playoff mascots: the Colts, Broncos, Ravens, Lions, Bengals, Jaguars, Panthers and Seahawks would be considered non-kosher.

Only the Cardinals would be considered kosher.. I think (but check with your local Rabbi).



If you look closely enough Commandment XI was "Just eat what you want"

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Another bit of good news. With Hoculi ("jungle boy" WTF was that??) and Blakeman working this week, at least we won't see them next week.....But unfortunately there's always the possibility of Boger.....

Keeping with the theme of this thread, think I'll recline when I watch the game........

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Thanks Ken!

Threads like these are exactly why I come to this site to read up on my team and not listen much to the mediots.

I wish we blow them out and in the process demolish the demons that seem to plague some of the fans convinced that the Ravens own us.

I do respect them for their toughness, but consider them as a good, near-equal sparring partner and nothing to be feared of.

GO PATS!!

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm happy with this matchup in some ways. I think the Pats will probably have to go through Seattle to win the SB, and the Ravens are good preparation in terms of their physicality and their DL. If we don't win the game we don't deserve to advance. It's time the Pats went back to when they would win the rock'em sock'em robots kind of games. My biggest concern if we win is that we will get hobbled from a physical game.

I think the tone of the game has to be very physical from the outset, on both sides of the ball. I look to Browner and Gronk to set the tone. I expect the Pats' DBs to punish the Ravens' WRs, and I expect McCourty to guard against the deep ball. Take that away and I don't think Flacco can do much. As for the OL, they've taken on physical DLs before (Detroit, Buffalo) and done ok. I think everyone knows that a 5-sack 2-interception game won't be good enough.

 

[PatsGuy]

Vegas must agree with your overall assessment. They've established the Pats 7.5 favorites

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Ken you omitted the Ravens greatest weapon. The refs inevitable PI call a good fraction of the time Flacco throws deep, which is often.
Lord, Deliver us from Boger.

 

[sb1]

I fear a matchup with Peyton Manning and his team a lot more than I do the Ravens.

Hopefully Cin/Ind can knock them off before the AFC Championship game, assuming the Pats beat BAL.

 

[shmessy]

Thanks Ken!

Threads like these are exactly why I come to this site to read up on my team and not listen much to the mediots.

I wish we blow them out and in the process demolish the demons that seem to plague some of the fans convinced that the Ravens own us.

I do respect them for their toughness, but consider them as a good, near-equal sparring partner and nothing to be feared of.

GO PATS!!

Amen.

Many of the mediots will somehow conveniently forget the LAST/ MOST RECENT meeting between these two teams - - a meeting when both had a lot on the line. And it was in Baltimore.

.....and it was a beatdown.

 

[mayoclinic]

Amen.

Many of the mediots will somehow conveniently forget the LAST/ MOST RECENT meeting between these two teams - - a meeting when both had a lot on the line. And it was in Baltimore.

.....and it was a beatdown.

And it means nothing, as does the AFCCG loss the year before. Both are irrelevant to this game. Past history. Water under the bridge.

The game will be played on the field, and the Pats will have to win it on the field. Not a gimme, but I like their chances. As Reiss noted in his Quick Hits today:

Belichick once said that a mark of a good team is how it responds under pressure and in critical times and adversity. It’s the type of thing that can really only be measured in the latter parts of a season, and it’s clear Belichick likes his 2014 team in this regard. This is what he said on Patriots All-Access: "They’re physically and mentally tough. They come to work every day, grind it out and they’re tough. We’ve had moments that have been good and not so good, but they’ve always kept competing. They’ve always been ready to work and try to improve, don’t make a lot of excuses, just play hard and try to get better. And I really respect that."

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...5502/quick-hit-thoughts-around-patriots-nfl-9

 

[shmessy]

I'm happy with this matchup in some ways. I think the Pats will probably have to go through Seattle to win the SB, and the Ravens are good preparation in terms of their physicality and their DL. If we don't win the game we don't deserve to advance. It's time the Pats went back to when they would win the rock'em sock'em robots kind of games. My biggest concern if we win is that we will get hobbled from a physical game.

I think the tone of the game has to be very physical from the outset, on both sides of the ball. I look to Browner and Gronk to set the tone. I expect the Pats' DBs to punish the Ravens' WRs, and I expect McCourty to guard against the deep ball. Take that away and I don't think Flacco can do much. As for the OL, they've taken on physical DLs before (Detroit, Buffalo) and done ok. I think everyone knows that a 5-sack 2-interception game won't be good enough.

Paragraph #1: I cannot "amen" that one enough. If the Pats cannot beat a front 7 like the Ravens, theyhave no chance against Seattle. This is great experience for the OL (just as Bufffalo/NYJ/Detroit was). In fact, I would say this is NEEDED for the OL to get further prepared for Seattle.

Paragraph #2: McCourty will definitely be the key and I hope he has his legs and catching hands ready for Jumpball Joe.

 

[shmessy]

I fear a matchup with Peyton Manning and his team a lot more than I do the Ravens.

Hopefully Cin/Ind can knock them off before the AFC Championship game, assuming the Pats beat BAL.

Really? If it is under 40 degrees the night of the game, I have no fear of Manning whatsoever. But they DO have a good running game.

 

[Patjew]

This Simple Son appreciates the answers, Ken!

 

[Rob0729]

One thing that got me last night night was the Steelers' offensive game plan. They played right into Dean Pees' hands. Pees did throw a lot of blitzes and designed pressures at Roethlisberger. How did Todd Haley respond? By calling a bunch of plays where the running routes are slow to develop and it required Roethlisberger to stand in the pocket for 3-4 seconds every time he dropped back. They rarely ran plays where it was a short quick pass to take advantage of the Ravens' aggressiveness. Plus after Tate fumbled, they didn't even try to pretend to run the ball. The Pats won't make that mistake.

I think the Ravens' defense played well last night, but I think the Steelers made them look better than they are especially in the secondary. Without a threat of a run and the Ravens knowing that the Steelers were going to pass down field, it allowed the Ravens to play the safeties deep all night to provide over the top coverage.

Ironically, I felt after the first quarter, the Ravens pass rush wasn't all that effective last night (It is ironic because people are shaking in their boots about the pass rush). It was effective at times, but I think Roethlisberger had plenty of time in the pocket for much of the game. But the fact that they didn't even tease the run, the pressure wasn't all that needed at times since (as I said) they could have over the top safety coverage for most of the night.

I expect the Pats to commit to the run (not be run heavy, but at least show enough run to make the Ravens to respect it). I think this is a Blount type of game. He is a patient runner who can move to find the holes. With the aggression of the Ravens' d-line, the holes will open up and could be a lot of daylight. The center of their d-line is too big for a Gray or Bolden type of game.

I also expect the Pats to rely heavily on the short passing game. We did see last night that when the Steelers did run it, it worked well. The Ravens' secondary sucks despite the ball washing from Collinsworth last night. If you force their safeties to play closer to the line, the secondary will be exposed. The short passing game also negates the pass rush quite a bit.

As Ken pointed out, the Ravens are susceptible to the TE. It wasn't just last with Heath Miller. Gates, Jimmy Graham, Jordan Cameron, and others have had success against their defense. I expect it to be a big game for Gronk.

People watched last night game game and think the Ravens have a dominant defense. But they did let the Steelers to pass for 319 yards and let Roethlisberger complete 69% of his passes. For all the talk about the pressure they put on Roethlisberger last night, they had 5 sacks (3 came in the first quarter and a half) and 4 QB hits. Not a bad results at all, but not nearly as dominant as people are making it out to be especially since they only sacked Roethlisberger twice in about the last 38 minutes of the game.

 

[shmessy]

Plus after Tate fumbled, they didn't even try to pretend to run the ball. The Pats won't make that mistake.

.

Really????

Is McDaniels taking a HC job elsewhere BEFORE next Saturday?

 

[Rob0729]

Really????

Is McDaniels taking a HC job elsewhere BEFORE next Saturday?

I meant the overall game plan the Steelers used of deep slow developing plays, but people overstate how the Pats give up on the run. There are times they do it, but not nearly as much as people make it out to be.

 

[shmessy]

I meant the overall game plan the Steelers used of deep slow developing plays, but people overstate how the Pats give up on the run. There are times they do it, but not nearly as much as people make it out to be.

Did you watch the AFCCG last year in Denver after Blount's first 5 carries?

Or any game they've played in Miami the past 2 years?

Granted Young Josh seemed to have learned his lesson in the 2nd half of the Miami game in Foxboro 3 weeks ago.......but only after some soul searching (and MAYBE BB talking at halftime).

Look, Rob, I HOPE you are right about this Saturday. I HOPE Josh has learned his lesson by now.

 

[Rob0729]

Did you watch the AFCCG last year in Denver after Blount's first 5 carries?

Or any game they've played in Miami the past 2 years?

Granted Young Josh seemed to have learned his lesson in the 2nd half of the Miami game in Foxboro 3 weeks ago.......but only after some soul searching (and MAYBE BB talking at halftime).

Look, Rob, I HOPE you are right about this Saturday. I HOPE Josh has learned his lesson by now.

I said there are games they give up on the run. Most teams do. But people overstate it.

Also, the Steelers pretty much gave up on the run in the first quarter when it was working. The Pats typically give up later than that in the game (usually the second half) when it isn't working. That is a big difference.

 

[mayoclinic]

In fact, I would say this is NEEDED for the OL to get further prepared for Seattle.

That's exactly correct. I think people who were wishing that we'd get Indy and then Denver (after they got beat up by Pittsburgh) are missing this point. We'll have to face a punishing, physical defense at some point, and the offense has got to get past it. What I didn't like about resting our starters against Buffalo (though I understood it) was that I thought the Bills were a great opportunity to work on tightening up the offensive execution against a physical front 7. Now we'll have to do it with the season on the line, but if we get through it then we'll be better prepared for a team like Seattle.

 

[fgssand]

Did you watch the AFCCG last year in Denver after Blount's first 5 carries?

Or any game they've played in Miami the past 2 years?

Granted Young Josh seemed to have learned his lesson in the 2nd half of the Miami game in Foxboro 3 weeks ago.......but only after some soul searching (and MAYBE BB talking at halftime).

Look, Rob, I HOPE you are right about this Saturday. I HOPE Josh has learned his lesson by now.

It won't matter...as Ken pointed out, this will be a "spread them out" game. That will offset their pressure and at the same time allow for some pretty decent one on one reads. Lafell being healthy is crucial as QB and receivers need to be on the same page.