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Idle thoughts - the Ma Nishtana edition.


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Yup.

Patriots record vs. Playoff teams: 4-1

Ravens record: 2-3



3.

How are you gonna run a valid "spread" with 2 WRs and 1 TE?

Can they run a spead? Sure, but your point emphasizes that this was a very top-heavy offense this year.

Gronk has played a lot of snaps on the outside in a WR position this year.
 
We're 7-5 favorites and we should be. If we are 7-5 favorites in the title game, we have about 1 chance in the of being in the Super Bowl.
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BALT is not a good team. That being said, we have 2 major issues.

ON OFFENSE
Will the line hold up? How often will be Brady be hit. Obviously, if Brady has time, we have the receivers to beat their secondary badly. Their front seven is still pretty good.

ON DEFENSE
We have celebrated our secondary, as well we should. I presume that Revis will be on one of the Smith's and Browner and a safety will be on the other. It will be very difficult to take both Smith's out of the game. And we do need to do that. We can't afford big plays by this pair. We need to make BALT try to win with other receivers.
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BOTTOM LINE
We should win; we're a much better team playing at home. HOWEVER, I don't think that we match up well at all against BALT.
 
I really disagree, but thanks for bring up the topic so I have the opportunity to explain my reasoning. Let me know if you feel differently afterword.

No question Steve Smith this their most dangerous receiver, but he's also the their most physical. Despite his size Smith wins a lot of his battles not because he beats the defender cleanly with his route running, but because his physical and skilled enough to outfight him for the ball. For that reason, you match strength with strength. This is a perfect time to put Browner on Smith with help over the top then decide who you want Revis to shut down. I pick Torey as the 2nd most dangerous receiver. Putting Browner on one of the more elusive speed receivers (TSmith/JJones) seems like a worse match up to me The 2nd best match up for me for Browner if not Smith would be Daniels.

Now that being said, I wouldn't allow the Ratbirds the luxury of always knowing who is going to be guarding who on every play, or even what kind of coverage they are going to get. I would always side on mixing up the man and zone and swapping coverage responsibilities. Not a lot, but enough to put some doubt into what Flacco thinks he's going to get pre-snap.

Ken, Steve Smith would run laps around Browner. Putting Browner on little Stevie is suicide.
 
It may be better to have Torry always double teamed (Browner and a safety), with Revis eliminating Steve Smith.

We need Arrington in the slot.
 
Ken, Steve Smith would run laps around Browner. Putting Browner on little Stevie is suicide.
I respectfully disagree. Steve Smith's greatest strength IMO is that he is physical enough to get off the line well against press coverage against most CB's. Brandon Browner isn't most CB's Nothing would be easy for Smith if we do that. No doubt he'd have a few "wins" as well, but with him having to battle Browner just to get off the LOS, only to run into bracket coverage with a S over the top, is going to frustrate the hell of him.

BTW- what's your alternative? Do you sit Browner down this week? Both Torry Smith and Jacoby Jones are both miss matches speed wise. They would also "run laps around Browner". Browner has faced a number of WR's this season who could also "run laps around" him on paper, and he's done pretty well. And I'm not saying leave him out there on an island.

My position is that Browner on SSmith with help over the top, with Revis on TSmith on an island, will be a more productive tandem than if that were reversed. Just a better matching of skill sets.

Perhaps the compromise would be to put Revis on Steve, Arrington/Ryan on Torrey with help over the top, and stick Browner on Daniels and let Collins chase Flacco all day. We shall see soon enough
 
That's exactly correct. I think people who were wishing that we'd get Indy and then Denver (after they got beat up by Pittsburgh) are missing this point. We'll have to face a punishing, physical defense at some point, and the offense has got to get past it. What I didn't like about resting our starters against Buffalo (though I understood it) was that I thought the Bills were a great opportunity to work on tightening up the offensive execution against a physical front 7. Now we'll have to do it with the season on the line, but if we get through it then we'll be better prepared for a team like Seattle.

Mayo, you are correct that at some point in the playoffs, we are going to have to play against a good D (if it wasn't the Ravens, it'd be some other team). Furthermore you are right that a victory against the Ravens would be very beneficial going forward. I myself wanted Indy, but if it's Baltimore it's Baltimore.

That being said, I think a lot of the anxiety regarding this game, pertains to the fear that it'll be a physical one where one of our key guys gets hobbled (ex: Gronk in the AFCCG in 2011, Talib in 12). Although past results don't matter in this game, the fact that the Ravens have played us tough several times is also a cause for concern.

In contrast, Denver gets either Indy (one of the softest teams left in the playoffs defensively, at least in my opinion) or Cincy (have thus far not shown ability to win in playoffs, despite a good D). I think the Bengals have a slim chance at beating Denver again, but it would take either Dalton elevating his game a-la Eli Manning circa 07 or 11, or the Broncos choking in a monumental, 07 Mavericksesque fashion.

But anyhow to summarize, I think the fear around here is not just "How do we beat Baltimore?" but also "How do we beat Baltimore and then how do we beat a Broncos team which will be more rested than ours?"

Obviously all these anxieties boil down to hypothetical, but then again, most do.

However, I also think it's important to remember that Superbowl winning teams tend to win at least one really close, hard fought game during their runs. As great as the Seahawks of 13' were, they were extremely close to being eliminated in the NFCCG. The 2012 Ravens needed an overtime to beat Denver. The 11' Giants benefited from a fumble on the part of SF. The 10' Packers had to stave off comebacks from the Eagles in the WC round, and the Steelers in the SB , respectively. The 09' Saints won off a Favreception.

Point is, I can't actually recall the last time a SB team dominated in every playoff game that they played, is what I'm saying (arguably the 00 Ravens qualified as one of those teams, though). The playoffs are tough, and close games are going to happen. Sure, some teams have gone to SB's via a relatively easy route (The 13' Broncos for example), but how often do they triumph over battle-tested teams?

We're playing Baltimore, and all we should be hoping for is a victory with no injuries where we do enough to win. I don't care if it's by 3 pts or 30 pts. All that matters is that we get the W and that nobody gets hurt.
 
We need to stop this hand wringing kvetching.
Are folks here aware that several teams have won the SB after playing 4 tough games?
We only have to win 3, and that's after an extra week's rest, healing up and preparation.
 
Perhaps the compromise would be to put Revis on Steve, Arrington/Ryan on Torrey with help over the top, and stick Browner on Daniels and let Collins chase Flacco all day. We shall see soon enough

There ya go! THAT +1.
 
But anyhow to summarize, I think the fear around here is not just "How do we beat Baltimore?" but also "How do we beat Baltimore and then how do we beat a Broncos team which will be more rested than ours?"

Patriots play Saturday and, if they win, play in the same building the following Sunday.

Denver plays Sunday, and if they win, fly 3/4s across the country with one day less of rest.

Not seeing your point there.
 
Patriots play Saturday and, if they win, play in the same building the following Sunday.

Denver plays Sunday, and if they win, fly 3/4s across the country with one day less of rest.

Not seeing your point there.

Plus which team needed to win in Week #17 and which one could afford to rest injured players?
 
Patriots play Saturday and, if they win, play in the same building the following Sunday.

Denver plays Sunday, and if they win, fly 3/4s across the country with one day less of rest.

Not seeing your point there.

The point comes down to the fear that even if we win, we'll be in worse shape than Denver, who on paper, gets an easier opponent than us defensively. The more I think about it however, the less I fear it. Sure, it might happen that we come out of the game beaten up, but the same could also apply to Denver, since every game is a different animal. We don't know which Patriots O-line will show up (Will it be the one that we've seen the past few weeks, or the one we saw during the mid season?), but we also have no idea which Peyton Manning will show up (Pre-Pats game Fivehead or Duckchucker Maximus?). If we triumph, and I'm feeling that it's certainly a winnable game, we'll sit back and see who we play next. If the Pats play their A-game, I think they can beat anyone in the league.
 
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I also think it's important to remember that Superbowl winning teams tend to win at least one really close, hard fought game during their runs. As great as the Seahawks of 13' were, they were extremely close to being eliminated in the NFCCG. The 2012 Ravens needed an overtime to beat Denver. The 11' Giants benefited from a fumble on the part of SF. The 10' Packers had to stave off comebacks from the Eagles in the WC round, and the Steelers in the SB , respectively. The 09' Saints won off a Favreception.

Point is, I can't actually recall the last time a SB team dominated in every playoff game that they played, is what I'm saying (arguably the 00 Ravens qualified as one of those teams, though). The playoffs are tough, and close games are going to happen. Sure, some teams have gone to SB's via a relatively easy route (The 13' Broncos for example), but how often do they triumph over battle-tested teams?

Winner.

The '01, '03 SB teams were also tested along the way. The Raiders game in '01. The '03 team had to pound out a 3 point win against a very physical Jeff Fisher Titans team. The 2004 team won relatively handily against Indy and Pittsburgh (on the road), but those were both very good teams and very tough games. I don't think you win a SB without winning some close playoff games.
 
Winner.

The '01, '03 SB teams were also tested along the way. The Raiders game in '01. The '03 team had to pound out a 3 point win against a very physical Jeff Fisher Titans team. The 2004 team won relatively handily against Indy and Pittsburgh (on the road), but those were both very good teams and very tough games. I don't think you win a SB without winning some close playoff games.

Looking back, the last time a SB squad won all of it's games by more than 10 pts was in 2002, when TB took home the SB... Strange that I keep forgetting that SB 37 happened, since it was the only time in the last 14 years that the AFC wasn't represented either the Ravens, Patriots, Steelers, or a Peyton Manning led team (conversely the NFC has been represented by 11 different teams).
 
I was just glancing through the recent thread titles and though, "Ha, I totally just misread that as 'Ma Nishtana'!" :)

Perhaps we could all use a moment of "Dayenu" as well?
 
I was just glancing through the recent thread titles and though, "Ha, I totally just misread that as 'Ma Nishtana'!" :)

Perhaps we could all use a moment of "Dayenu" as well?


And the non-MOTs are scratching their heads..........
 
Gronk has played a lot of snaps on the outside in a WR position this year.

Regardless of the RB (Vareen or Blount), the "spread" is fine as long as they occasionally also run out of the alignment so the DL stays honest. Whether from the shotgun (as long as its not that ridiculous "Brady two step right hand off"...whatever that is) or the single back with TE motion (wham block).

Too much reliance on the "option the RB wide to determine man or zone read" in the last three games giving the defense an easy "read" of their own - go get the QB!

The motion in screen Hernandez used to run could be good too with Wright or LaFell.
 
My position is that Browner on SSmith with help over the top, with Revis on TSmith on an island, will be a more productive tandem than if that were reversed. Just a better matching of skill sets.

Perhaps the compromise would be to put Revis on Steve, Arrington/Ryan on Torrey with help over the top, and stick Browner on Daniels and let Collins chase Flacco all day. We shall see soon enough

I think you'll see glimpses of all of these suggestions - particularly as the team tries to divulge the Ravens' game plan. Add in that you will indeed see zone looks too, and I'm not sure this isn't going to be something very similar to the game plan vs the Lions where they changed up frequently especially early.
 
Harbaugh isn't stupid. They're going to absolutely copy the Jets defensive game plan from a couple weeks ago - rush four, double Gronk to include hitting him on the line, and flood the short area of the field. If the WRs, like vs the Jets, can't get early separation, this game will be tough for the offense.

Edelperson and yes even Amendola are crucial now that the confidence is back (with some Wright and Vareen for good measure and variety) early because they're going to find tough running...soften the zone with quick outs, z-option routes, and curls - take the three and four yard completions and be patient.
 
Harbaugh isn't stupid. They're going to absolutely copy the Jets defensive game plan from a couple weeks ago - rush four, double Gronk to include hitting him on the line, and flood the short area of the field. If the WRs, like vs the Jets, can't get early separation, this game will be tough for the offense.

Edelperson and yes even Amendola are crucial now that the confidence is back (with some Wright and Vareen for good measure and variety) early because they're going to find tough running...soften the zone with quick outs, z-option routes, and curls - take the three and four yard completions and be patient.
I hope the Ravens copy the Jets game-plan. It'll mean they will lose.
 
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