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How does the Saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to...

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by thenepatsrule, Sep 27, 2010.

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  1. thenepatsrule

    thenepatsrule Rookie

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    compare to .........what BB did last year against the colts on 4th and 1?
    today there was a lot of praise for sean peytons decision to kick a fg in OVERTIME......
    and last year for some reason nobody was in support of BB's decision ....
    i do not proclaim to be a nfl expert
    but i felt the decision made by the saints was as risky/dumb as the pats decision not to punt last year (if "DUMB" is what the media calls it)......

    i understand before the FG brees' knee was pretty banged up,
    their running game wasnt as good

    but the pats had a similar situation at that time, they simply did not want to give the ball back to peyton with a few minutes remaining
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2010
  2. PatsWickedPissah

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    I don't think Faulk got it but Woodhead clearly would have
  3. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    I'm the first to bash a coach for playing it safe by running into the middle of the line three times for a 45-yard field goal. Last year I saw Kubiak do it, and I'll always remember Herm Edwards vs. the Steelers in '04. However, this was a chip shot field goal indoors that no kicker in the NFL should ever miss. I don't blame the coaching for this decision, and I think the statistics would support that call.
  4. BradyFTW!

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    I wasn't sure if he was talking about the Saints kicking a FG on 2nd down on their last regulation possession or the OT FG that Hartley shanked.

    If it's the former, I'm not sure; depends on how much time was left on the clock. As for the OT FG, that was the right call. The chances of turning the ball over trying to get those additional yards have to be higher than the chance that your kicker randomly shanks a 29 yard FG, right?
  5. thenepatsrule

    thenepatsrule Rookie

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    i was talkin abt the OT FG..........
  6. Palm Beach Pats Fan

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    It was a 20-something yard field goal. A decent kicker makes that 99 times out of 100.

    It was far less risky than any decision to go for it on 4th down. The odds were better to try the kick then as opposed to taking the very small but real risk of a fumble, bad snap, false start penalty pushing you back, etc.

    I hate to leave the outcome up to the kicker, but it is his job to make that one.

    It's one thing to play it conservative and depend on making a 45-yarder. It's another to take a chip shot attempt as soon as it is there.
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2010
  7. BradyFTW!

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    The one caveat that makes me not like the playcall is that Belichick had already used up all of his challenges. Knowing that they didn't have any challenges left, they shouldn't have run a play so close to the first down line. That left the door open for what happened, and it wasn't exactly unforeseeable.
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2010
  8. Sicilian

    Sicilian On the Roster

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    I can't remember, did the Saints get the first possession in OT? If so, that decision would be bad in the playoffs this year under the new rules. For a regular season game though, you take a 20-30 yard FG in OT every time. Maybe you run one play to center the ball, but that's it.
  9. BradyFTW!

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    FWIW, people seem to forget that, going into the playoffs last year, Hartley was considered a liability. He was ice cold in the playoffs, was money in the SB, and now the perception is that he's pretty much a sure thing. It was the complete opposite not that long ago.
  10. stcjones

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    it was a 29 yard FG....a kicker should make that in his sleep....you don't want to take 2 many chances and turn over the football....FG was the right call...unfortunately kicker shanked it.really happy for matty ice tho...great comeback...
  11. unoriginal

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    I would definately disagree there. Getting long snap -> hold -> kick to work is much harder than snap -> handoff -> secure ball.

    Last year NFL kickers missed 3% of the time from 20-29 yards and 16% of the time from between 30-39 yards. Supposedly the chances of missing are an exponential function for each yard you go out so 29 yards must be between 6% and 7% chance of missing. Add in the fact that its pressure time for the field goal kicking team and the defense is not playing safe coverage and you've got to have a chance of missing over 10%.

    And Garrett Hartley isn't even an average NFL kicker.

    Drew Brees last year had a 2% chance of throwing an interception each time he dropped back to pass. There was a 1% chance of Brees fumbling, and a 1.5% chance of the running backs fumbling. You run three plays and you have an 8% chance of a turnover, but at least a 60% chance of scoring a TD. THEN you can try a field goal. (Or maybe after two plays if you're worried about a bad snap or hold.)

    I think people should always give themselves the best chance to succeed. But what often happens is a kind of lock-in where the decision maker will come up with a percentage where they're willing to go all in on an all-or-nothing play, then pull the trigger right when that threshold is reached. This is probably a coping mechanism for quickly relieving pressure; i.e. giving yourself a clear goal to shoot for instead of constantly playing percentages.
  12. thenepatsrule

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    nice work with the stats .............. u will rock at sports betting (i am guessing)
  13. fxkane

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    There's absolutely no comparison between these two plays. The BB decision was extremely rare and outlandish risk--the NO play is what most NFL coaches would have done. How can pure risk be compared to pure safety?
  14. captain stone

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    I thought that on 1st down, Brees would take the ball from the right hash, move it to the middle, then take a knee. That would've set up a 2nd-down FG attempt, but this time from the middle of the field, albeit from a couple of yds farther. Hartley would then not have had to adjust his angle to (over-)compensate for the short distance.
  15. Wolfpack

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    Yes, but it's easier to do one longsnap/hold/kick than it is to do a handoff or two plus the longsnap/hold/kick.
    Huh-whuh-huh? I think that's some fuzzy math you have going there... Your own numbers say kickers are 97% from 20-29 and yet somehow that translates into 90% for Sunday's game? Plus you should factor in the fact that the game Sunday was indoors. I'd bet the chances are better than 97% when the game is inside.
    Where exactly are you getting your 60% figure?

    I think you are forgetting one critical thing, and that is the defensive mentality in such a situation. For Atlanta, a TD is no worse than a FG, so if NO runs offensive plays, they would be facing a team dead set on doing anything and everything they can to force a turnover.
  16. Wolfpack

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    IMHO, I think it's safe to say that the coach knows which hash mark the kicker prefers and that it was already where the kicker likes it.
  17. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    I enjoyed reading this. I am curious, though, about the odds of an offensive holding penalty. To me, that is a lot higher risk than a turnover. I usually think coaches should keep putting the pedal to the metal, especially if they have a responsible, accurate QB like Brees. However, I stand by my original comment: a 29-yard field goal is a golden ticket.

    As you mentioned, running three players is an 8% chance of a turnover, while kicking the field goal has roughly a 6-7% chance of missing. You'd also have to factor in a couple of other things, including a holding penalty (already mentioned.) Also, the kicker is indoors and at home, so the percentages are probably better for that kick. By the same token, the Saints are less likely to turn the ball over with safe, low-risk plays designed to prevent losing the football.

    Now, compare this situation to Herm Edwards in 2004.

    The Jets responded with a drive inside the Steelers 30-yard line, but Brien missed a 47-yard field goal attempt with 2 minutes left in regulation. Two plays later, New York defensive back David Barrett gave his team another chance to score the winning points by intercepting a pass from Roethlisberger and returning it 25 yards to Pittsburgh's 36-yard line. But Brien missed another field goal, this one from 43 yards, as time expired in the fourth quarter, and the game went into overtime.

    2004?05 NFL playoffs - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    The Jets are playing on the road against the heavily favored 15-1 Steelers. Heinz field is the toughest place for kickers in the NFL, statistically documented, and Doug Brien has already missed a earlier in the fourth quarter. The crowd is raucous in Pittsburgh and Brien is visibly shaken on the sideline. The Jets, as you see from this brief writeup, get the ball at Pittsburgh's 36, then drive for a first down. They have the Steelers on the ropes, and one more first down would increase the odds on this FG dramatically. Herm Edwards has them run the ball into the line for three straight downs. Statistically, making a 43-yard field goal at Heinz is less than 50%; in this situation, based on the feel of the game, it might as well have been 0%.

    The media absolutely destroyed Doug Brien, and Edwards publicly threw him under the bus after the game. Sadly, most NFL fans did not understand that the coach was the real culprit of another crashed Jet squad.

    Point being: Payton's call was in a gray area, but if you want to see a really bad call, see Herm Edwards' coaching
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2010
  18. unoriginal

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    But the overall chance of failure is reduced. Every play you run the chance of scoring is higher than the chance of turnover. That's the basic principle everyone would agree with, the stats are just to estimate exactly what those chances are.

    It's correct math. Weather would not be a factor for such a short kick, only technique (excepting late season games in Buffalo... and nobody kicks in that weather anyway so its not in the stats). 97% is of course the average for a range between 20 and 29 yards so in order to find the average for 29 yards exactly you have to extrapolate. I used an exponential function with a dummy variable for each yard you went out from the median yardage (25) that also hit the average for 30-39 at 35 yards. Thus I got a miss percentage between 6% and 7% as reported.

    To that I simply guessed that pressure, both psychological and defensive would push the percentage up at least 3-4%. Most field goals are done against no real rush.

    60% is the rule-of-thumb/benchmark percentage for TDs inside the Red Zone (either that or 66%). Given that the Saints were halfway there they'd have a better percentage for success. I saw in a game this week that so far this season the RZ success rate was given as 59%.

    The difference between a team trying harder than usual for a turnover is less than the difference between FG block and FG safe. Second, you can mitigate that risk with two hands on the ball and three step drops. They're at the 10 so it wouldn't be hard to take their shots safely. You can't mitigate an all-out FG block. There's just more pressure for the snapper to get a better snap while getting a better block, the holder to get a hold off a worse snap, and the kicker to get the kick off quicker and higher. Putting stress on an all-or-nothing system means technique often breaks down.

    Meanwhile, the offense doesn't really operate under the same stress because they've already demonstrated the ability to operate effectively on the drive, and each play is not all-or-nothing for them. To that point the Saints had scored three touchdowns and a field goal. Which unit has the hot hand?
  19. unoriginal

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    There's nothing wrong with your original comment. I'm just saying there's a better ticket out there.

    I thought about holding, but what are the chances of holding being called versus something like defensive pass interference in the end zone? That aside, if you were just looking at holding a 10% chance would seem high, even in that situation, given you'll see 70 offensive plays a game and like 2 holding calls. But on the 10% chance of a sack or a hold you've increased the raw miss percentage by 17%, i.e. the chance of making the field goal is now 80% at 39 yards, assuming you make up no yardage whatsoever on any of your plays. 10% of 17% is 1.7% So basically the threat of holding or a sack would be around a 2% chance of leading to a turnover.

    I think everyone can agree about Herm Edwards' coaching.
  20. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Re: how does the saints decision to kick a FG on 1 down compare to.........

    advancedfootballstats.com is an awesome (and free) site. Here is their distribution.

    [​IMG]
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