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Honest Assessment of AFC East


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Brady-To-Branch said:
And this matters because....? :rolleyes:



You're forgetting that...

In 2004, Culpepper has Moss
In 2004, Culpepper played an easy schedule in '04 (123-133)

Randy Moss 2004 Stats
Rec 49
Yards 767
avg 15.7
TD 13

Culpepper 2004
Att 548
comp 379
comp % 69.2
yards 4717
YPA 8.61
TD 39

So it's just a fluke that Culpepper had his best season EVER when Randy had his worst season EVER?

And then all the blame falls on him the next year when they switch co-ordinator, and realistically dont even field a defense for 5 weeks and have nothing that even resembles a running game...
 
usmcmgb said:
We've all been hearing a lot of talk about how the Dolphins are poised to take over the AFC East. The latest I've read is Gary Horton of Scouts, Inc on ESPN.com. So how does everyone else here feel about the AFC East this year? No emotional "Pats Rule!", no hype, just your honest assessment of how it looks 6 weeks before camp opens. Personally, I think the Dolphins are still at least a year away from seriously challanging the Pats. They do have a fairly easy schedule this year with only one cold weather divisional game but if I was a Fins fan, I would have zero confidence in Culpepper or Harrington's ability to carry a team on their backs when necessary. The defense is aging and Ronnie Brown has no back up. Short of anything disasterous happening to any of the keys (Brady, Bruschi, Seymour, Vrabel, Colvin, etc.) I still like the Pats to rule the division this year. If Maroney can step up and Dillon can bounce back (possibly very big "ifs" but lets assume for now that they can) I think the offense is going to be a machine. All the pundits are wringing their hands over the loss of AV and Willie but I was never in that camp. AV had a good run with us and we'll all never forget the Snow Bowl against Oakland (THE kick of his career IMO) but it was obvious in several games last year that his leg, never REAL strong to begin with had lost a little bit, not to mention his accuracy last year. Maybe he was hurting but I just don't believe that the loss of a player, on the field for about one minute out of 60, kills your run at another SB. If it does, you don't deserve to go anyway.
So, how does everyone else feel about the division this year?

1.) Patriots - Still the best team in the division top to bottom
gap
2.) Dolphins - I think they take a huge step back this year.
huge gap
3.) Bills - Awful
4.) Jets - God awful.
 
Chevagus said:
Anyone can twist numbers around. You know what they say about lies, damn lies and statistics I'm sure. You say your judgment is based on interception percentage and performance yet you only seem to focus on interceptions. Yes, Culpepper threw more than brady. Regarding performance, to me it looks like Culpepper has a higher career passer rating than Brady. And, I'm sure you also know even if you fail to mention it, Culpepper had a significantly higher completion percentage than Brady. Perhaps, dare I say it, Brady just happened to be on a better team than Culpepper and the mediocre Vikings always were exposed in the playoffs?

I could also look at your numbers and say that Culpepper is better in a Linehan offense, which is what he had until 2005, which is incidentally the year Moss left. That, by the way, is the system he'll be working with this year.

What did twist???

INTs are what they are and Duante has thrown more of them against weaker competiton.

Talk about twisting, you gloat over passer ratings when you ingore the level of competiton. Yes, Brady's best passer rating isn't as good, but I'm just not impressed when a QB fattens up his stats on inferior teams.

BTW is the old and tired (and lame) "system QB" argument the best you've got?

In 2005, the Pats O-line was decimated, Dillon was ineffective, their defense struggled against a tough 1st half schedule, and their #1 WR was frequently double-teamed. Yet Brady led the league with 4,110 passing yards and had a passer rating of 92.3 (all this without Weis). Add to the fact that in his 3 SB years, Brady has had only ONE Pro Bowl sellection on offense. Wow, what a system! :rolleyes:
 
Welker83 said:
So it's just a fluke that Culpepper had his best season EVER when Randy had his worst season EVER?

It means Culppeper has something to prove. And he must do it in the tough AFC. Maybe he will. Based on his history, I have doubts.

Welker83 said:
And then all the blame falls on him the next year when they switch co-ordinator, and realistically dont even field a defense for 5 weeks and have nothing that even resembles a running game...

Are you talking about Brady?
 
Brady-To-Branch said:
What did twist???

INTs are what they are and Duante has thrown more of them against weaker competiton.

Talk about twisting, you gloat over passer ratings when you ingore the level of competiton. Yes, Brady's best passer rating isn't as good, but I'm just not impressed when a QB fattens up his stats on inferior teams.

BTW is the old and tired (and lame) "system QB" argument the best you've got?

In 2005, the Pats O-line was decimated, Dillon was ineffective, their defense struggled against a tough 1st half schedule, and their #1 WR was frequently double-teamed. Yet Brady led the league with 4,110 passing yards and had a passer rating of 92.3 (all this without Weis). Add to the fact that in his 3 SB years, Brady has had only ONE Pro Bowl sellection on offense. Wow, what a system! :rolleyes:

Nowhere did I gloat, just throwing examples out there that numbers can be used both ways. You say Culpepper is a product of Moss and played weaker competition and then when faced with a different possiblility all you can do is call that a tired argument yet you back up nothing. You must work in the administration.

Regarding last year, yes Brady threw more because he had to. What's your point? I'll take your word that there was only ONE pro bowl selection during the SB years but that just butresses my argument. The "team" and system were very good and your record wasn't the product of any one player. By the way, Brady's league leading passing yards were not totally out of whack with prior years where he averaged about 3700 yards per season nor were his td totals higher. I agree, it's impressive he was able to put up those numbers without Weis but as of yet he's not shown he can lead the Patriots to the championship without him.
 
Buffalo: Jauron is building for speed on his defense, he collected light, quick DLs and fast safeties to back up his pretty solid LBs. We'll have to see how they gel working together, but they will give folks some trouble.
His offense is still in search of a line, so it won't matter which journeyman QB or 1st round long shot starts behind it until they get that repaired.

NYJ: Mangini may be better in the HC role then he was as a DC, you certainly can look at what he and Tannenbaum did with Free Agency and the draft and think they are working from the Belichick/Pioli 2000 playbook. If you look at the D, the question is his rookie DC and his LBs. The DL has all the tools for a Patriot-like 3-4. Mangini has demonstrated his ability to develop young DBs, and he's brought back a couple veterans to solidify this group. Cox may be a rookie coach, but you couldn't ask for much more in a LBs coach then a rookie with his intensity and experience. Which still means that the heart of a Patriot-like 3-4 will need a lot of time to season.
On the offensive side, young Schottenheimer has me thinking OC isn't as much of a question-mark as we'd like. The good news for us is it's going to be an inexperienced O-line protecting shell-shocked QBs, the bad news is Jr.'s proven ability to turn around gun shy QBs and that Oregon kid they scooped up in the second round sheltering behind the sacrificial veterans while Jr picks up the OC game. Not to mention the shot at the Brady Quinn sweepstakes.

Miami: Saban distresses me with his dirtbag collection, I've always despised Oakland and Baltimore for similar mindsets. Nicky is a proven DB coach rebuilding his backfield, we'll have to see if his new mix can give Tommy the same fits as those in years past. The LB corp will do well if Zach's health holds up. The DL has the experience and beef to play their assignments and make you work for each yard. I'd not discount the defensive remodeling at this point.
Offensively, Mularky is a good pickup. Culpepper is a great pickup, from a Patriots' perspective, as is Joey-boy. Culpepper gives Mularky the next coming of Kordel Stewart to freelance around in new, exciting, and unproductive ways. Ronnie Brown should be in shape as a second year man to play a 16 game season, he'll do well. Culpepper will have some good targets, and his O-line will be much improved with Shelton anchoring LT. But that same O-line will have a lot to do as they adjust to Daunte's scramble drill in a Mularky offense.
Miami's defense will keep them competitive.

Patriots: The defense is coming together again, only depth at LB gives me any concern. Rodney can come back slow if needed, this team has adjusted to create good veteran safety depth. Questions about a NT back-up for Vince were answered by Wright's play last year, he'll be improved greatly this year if needed. Sullivan is as tempting a reclamation prospect as you could want and Thomas seems to have made that step forward he needed to allow Klecko to go back to LB project.
Offensively is where the questions are - WR. The O-line has the experienced depth to wait on Koppen's recovery. The one spot on the line where I have any concern, LT depth; Light and Kaczur have only Britt and Doty competing behind them. Mankins is working to be our dream G, but at the moment, he is the #3 LT on my depth chart. TE is, to 'coin' a phrase, tight. RB is as competitive and talented as you could wish, I'd almost expect to carry 5 WRs and 8 OL to keep RB depth. WR is where the Pats are digging deep. The plus side is the young bucks who are showing some future prospects. The here and now is going to be much more reliant on help from the TEs, Backfield, and running game.

The AFCE defenses are looking to be a challenge up and down the board, the Jets may be the one with the most difficult transition blending new players in the very complex Belichick 3-4, but they have talent to work with. Defensive rankings at it would appear in June: NE, Miami/Buffalo, NYJ

The AFCE Offenses are in rebuilding mode, Buffalo's looks to be dreaming of a Steeler-like running game with the 340+ lb. featherweights they drafted. QBs are the key difference, which leaves only NE with any assurance of what they have, assuming Tommy bounces back completely after his off-season surgery (there seems to have been more than new WRs affecting his timing and aim). Ranking the June offenses: NE, Miami, NYJ, Buffalo.

Special Teams: This one is interesting, I will have to look and see if Buffalo kept their STs' coach. We will also have to see if Mangini learned the STs lesson from his mentor. Miami's STs don't stand out in my memory, neither do any of the AFCE kickers. NE has made STs an off-season priority, considering how the passing game could develop that may be a better move then initially thought. Ranking teams is going to be wildly off at this stage, but what the heck: Buffalo, NE, Miami, NYJ.

Pats are the still the team to beat. Miami seems to have the defense to carry them, and hopes of a running game to help Culpepper. The Jets and Bills have too much of a question along their O-lines and at QB to pick between them, both defenses should be tough propositions as the season progresses.
 
BOR,
great insight. a couple things: If the Jets are going to a 3-4, where does Robertson play? He's an upfield player, not a nose, and he's 6'1'', which doesn't translate well to end. Plus Vilma is not an ideal 3-4 ILB. Don't you think Mangini is making a mistake moving to the 3-4 with good 4-3 personnel? If Mangini were really following the BB blueprint wouldn't he wait to make that switch until he's picked up the proper players after 2 seasons? If he tries it in 2006 it seems like a mistake...
Also, don't you think LJ Shelton is among the worst LTs in the NFL? I agree the Miami O-line will be improved but I have a hard time beliveing it will be because of Shelton. Other than that, Amen.
 
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Pats fans have the right to "think" they are still the team to beat the Pats have earned it. That being said, no team remains on top forever. The one thing that can be said about Saban is he doesn't have the SB's while BB does, the desire to get the "next one" isn't as strong as the desire to get the "first one". The same can be said for the players. The Pats aren't so superior to the fins or any team for that matter, that means that it comes down to who wants it more.

We can compare numbers and schedules and matchups or FA pickups and DP's till the cows come home, it doesn't change the fact the one significant injury could change the whole landscape of the division. I won't go so far as to say Miami will win the SB that would be foolish, however we have all seen teams go from worst to first in just one season. The fins will most likely improve enough to battle to the end for the division. Not inconceivable considering we can beat any team in the division. Most our offseason upgrades are neither superb or garbage. The players Miami picked up were players that Saban feels add to what it is he wants to do....sound familiar? It should.

Bottom line, the Pats time is coming, they will not be able to maintain the level of play forever. It's just life in the NFL, teams cycle. I think Pats fans should be thrilled they have had the success they've had and I'm not going to sit here and say this is the year. What I am saying is things change and those on top need to fight claw and scratch to stay there because everyone wants what they have. When someone wants it more, they fight claw and scratch a little harder. Thats how I see the difference between the two teams in the east. Will the Pats want it more...we will see.
 
usmcmgb said:
So, how does everyone else feel about the division this year?

Patz ROOL!
 
We'll see.
i think miami is in for a very rude awakening.
Miami wins the east? Yeah, o.k.
our time may be up someday, but this ain't that day.
 
dryheat44 said:
Miami has the exact same schedule as the Pats except they play Pittsburgh and San Diego when we play Cincinnati and Denver. Really seems to be more or less a wash.

Actually, the Fins have a tougher schedule. The two teams you cite are about a wash. But the Fins have to play the Pats twice, and the Pats in return play the Fins twice. So tougher for the Fins.
 
feelthepain said:
Pats fans have the right to "think" they are still the team to beat the Pats have earned it. That being said, no team remains on top forever. The one thing that can be said about Saban is he doesn't have the SB's while BB does, the desire to get the "next one" isn't as strong as the desire to get the "first one". The same can be said for the players. The Pats aren't so superior to the fins or any team for that matter, that means that it comes down to who wants it more.

We can compare numbers and schedules and matchups or FA pickups and DP's till the cows come home, it doesn't change the fact the one significant injury could change the whole landscape of the division. I won't go so far as to say Miami will win the SB that would be foolish, however we have all seen teams go from worst to first in just one season. The fins will most likely improve enough to battle to the end for the division. Not inconceivable considering we can beat any team in the division. Most our offseason upgrades are neither superb or garbage. The players Miami picked up were players that Saban feels add to what it is he wants to do....sound familiar? It should.

Bottom line, the Pats time is coming, they will not be able to maintain the level of play forever. It's just life in the NFL, teams cycle. I think Pats fans should be thrilled they have had the success they've had and I'm not going to sit here and say this is the year. What I am saying is things change and those on top need to fight claw and scratch to stay there because everyone wants what they have. When someone wants it more, they fight claw and scratch a little harder. Thats how I see the difference between the two teams in the east. Will the Pats want it more...we will see.

If the Patriots were an old team, it would make sense. Miami's defense is a lot older than the Patriots' as is Miami's QB in Culpepper. That being said, what makes you think Miami will catch the Pats anytime in the next 3 years? Brady, Branch, Seymour, etc are in their absolute prime right now. Who on the Fins besides Chambers and maybe Brown is in their prime? The Dolphins will fall before the Pats will and I think you're in for a disappointment this year to be honest. I think Miami is, at best, 10-6 and will have a tough time getting a wild card considering teams like Cincy, Pitt, Jax, KC, Denver will all be fighting for wildcards since they all can't win divisions.
 
Welker83 said:
Where are you guys getting the "aging Miami Defense"?

Heres the facts:
Projected starting line-up for this year:
DL: Jason Taylor 31,Vonnie Holliday 30, Keith Traylor 36, Kevin Carter 32
LB: Sedrick Hodge 27, Zach Thomas 32, Channing Crowder 22
DB: Will Allen 27, Travis Daniels 23, Jason Allen 22, Renaldo Hill 27
The trouble is that the DLine and LBs, where you want speed and athleticsim, are filled with acncient bodies.

The defensive backfield, where you NEED experience, you have very young players.

If I had a starting DL of:
DL: Jason Taylor 31,Vonnie Holliday 30, Keith Traylor 36, Kevin Carter 32
I would not complain if someone called my D aging!!!!!!!
 
Chevagus said:
Nowhere did I gloat, just throwing examples out there that numbers can be used both ways. You say Culpepper is a product of Moss and played weaker competition and then when faced with a different possiblility all you can do is call that a tired argument yet you back up nothing. You must work in the administration.

Regarding last year, yes Brady threw more because he had to. What's your point? I'll take your word that there was only ONE pro bowl selection during the SB years but that just butresses my argument. The "team" and system were very good and your record wasn't the product of any one player. By the way, Brady's league leading passing yards were not totally out of whack with prior years where he averaged about 3700 yards per season nor were his td totals higher. I agree, it's impressive he was able to put up those numbers without Weis but as of yet he's not shown he can lead the Patriots to the championship without him.
This is so stupid. If you could trade Culpepper for Brady straight up, you'd have the happiest fans in Miami since 1972. Get real.
 
spacecrime said:
This is so stupid. If you could trade Culpepper for Brady straight up, you'd have the happiest fans in Miami since 1972. Get real.



I don't agree, we don't know what Daunte can do in Miami. Maybe he makes Miami a SB team, if he does we don't need Brady. Let's make no mistake, Brady is a good QB, but until he landed in NE no one thought much of him. How bout you give BB a little credit for Bradys success.
 
feelthepain said:
I don't agree, we don't know what Daunte can do in Miami. Maybe he makes Miami a SB team, if he does we don't need Brady. Let's make no mistake, Brady is a good QB, but until he landed in NE no one thought much of him. How bout you give BB a little credit for Bradys success.

Don't you mean until Brady won THREE Superbowls? Nice way to try to twist words little phins fan.

And the ridiculous Brady to Culpepper comparisons have to stop. Culpepper has done nada in this league when the chips are on the line and he had far superior offensive talent around him with Moss and Bennet in Minnesota.

I doubt he will be much more than mediocre with the Phins 'weapons'.

Anyways back to the topic. The AFCE as I see it.

Patriots 12-4, minimum
Dolphins 8-8, plus or minus a game
Bills 6-10, they are in rebuilding mode and reaching in the draft didnt help em
Jets 6-10, QB issues with Pennington gone and with Herm gone installing new system, also rebuilding

That's about how I see it. The Pats don't have to do much to win this weak division. The Pats schedule this year isn't nearly as tough as last year and they will rack up lots of divisional wins against rebuilding teams. It's a shame the AFCE has fallen so far since it used to be one of the toughest divisions in football. I remember this division sent 3 teams to the playoffs one year.
 
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VJCPatriot said:
Don't you mean until Brady won THREE Superbowls? Nice way to try to twist words little phins fan.

And the ridiculous Brady to Culpepper comparisons have to stop. Culpepper has done nada in this league when the chips are on the line and he had far superior offensive talent around him with Moss and Bennet in Minnesota.

I doubt he will be much more than mediocre with the Phins 'weapons'.

Anyways back to the topic. The AFCE as I see it.

Patriots 12-4, minimum
Dolphins 8-8, plus or minus a game
Bills 6-10, they are in rebuilding mode and reaching in the draft didnt help em
Jets 6-10, QB issues with Pennington gone and with Herm gone installing new system, also rebuilding

That's about how I see it. The Pats don't have to do much to win this weak division. The Pats schedule this year isn't nearly as tough as last year and they will rack up lots of divisional wins against rebuilding teams. It's a shame the AFCE has fallen so far since it used to be one of the toughest divisions in football. I remember this division sent 3 teams to the playoffs one year.


Uh, when did "Brady" win three SB's???
 
feelthepain said:
Uh, when did "Brady" win three SB's???

2001, 2003, 2004. Have you been living in a cave? Thanks. We know the extent of your football knowledge now. No use talking to trolls. LOL. :p
 
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VJCPatriot said:
2001, 2003, 2004. Have you been living in a cave? Thanks. We know the extent of your football knowledge now. No use talking to trolls. LOL. :p


Obviously you don't get the sarcasm. Let me ask you this,could that Pats have won those three SB's without an Oline?? Or Dfense?? Or ST or coaching?? Ofcourse not. Your problem is you're not willing to give any other player or coach on the Pats team credit for the success in NE. I think you're the one that doesn't get it. Brady didn't win three SB's. The Patriots won three SB with Bradys help, just like Brady won three SB's with the Patriots help. His play is not the play of legends, it's the play of a guy who understands his roll on a "TEAM" and he plays his roll. Thats not a knock on Tom it's a credit to the team.

And since it was a team the won those three SB's who is resposible for putting that team together?? In the end it was the Owner and the players and the coaches and the Fans that helped each other win a SB so while Brady was the QB, I'll promise you he wouldn't have led the Cardinals to those SB's. I'm sure ther are 15 QB's in the league that could have won three SB's with the Pats.
 
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