Honest Assessment of AFC East

[gomezcat]

Ben started having some devastating blocks near the end of the season, but he also whiffed on key blocks right up to the end in Denver. He is learning, but I would not call him a good blocker yet, great potential and the TE coach (Mangurian) is a good man to bring it out, but not there at yet.

If I had to critique him from a technique standpoint (with the caveat that I'm as amateur an analyst as they come) I'd say he hasn't gotten his field vision in tune, his angles are off a degree or he sees his targets too late. He also tries to pancake them instead of locking on and steering them with leverage. What is encouraging is his improvement over the course of the season, he got better at knowing his assignment (or the coaches adjusted the way they used him to get the most out of his play). He had a wonderful wham block in the Jacksonville game, where he came from being split wide, and decked the DE with as nasty a (clean) blind-side hit as you could ever want. That guy saw some stars.

I think you are extremely being unfair on yourself by saying that you are as amateur as they come in terms of analysis. I find your breakdowns helpful as I can go back to the DVD and say, "ah, I missed that". I like watching what the O line does (probably because it is the only position in which I ever stood any chance) but much of what is very good, as opposed to pretty good or obviously bad passes me by. Damn, I need to go and see a Doctor; I just paid Box a compliment.

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

Perhaps the reason Watson is trying to pancake guys instead of using a more conservative technique is from watching Grambo clean people's clock!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I think you are extremely being unfair on yourself by saying that you are as amateur as they come in terms of analysis. I find your breakdowns helpful as I can go back to the DVD and say, "ah, I missed that". I like watching what the O line does (probably because it is the only position in which I ever stood any chance) but much of what is very good, as opposed to pretty good or obviously bad passes me by. Damn, I need to go and see a Doctor; I just paid Box a compliment.

This is the kind of thing to put my head on a swivel and have me creeping around with my back to the wall and both hands crossed low and in front! Sigh, my nerves just aren't up to these stressful situations anymore.

 

[flutie2phelan]

I think you are extremely being unfair on yourself by saying that you are as amateur as they come in terms of analysis. I find your breakdowns helpful as I can go back to the DVD and say, "ah, I missed that". .... Damn, I need to go and see a Doctor; I just paid Box a compliment.

G'cat, if you keep saying things like that about our dear, daft Uncle Box ...
we're going to have to lock him back up in the attic again. Please!

 

[Welker83]

How good are your seats? Are you the one we see on the TV network quick crowd shots with the porpoise on his head?

Upper level 50 yard line on the home side...home side has the sun to your back...

And no i'm not the guy w/ the dolphin on his head...

 

[Welker83]

I think you are extremely being unfair on yourself by saying that you are as amateur as they come in terms of analysis. I find your breakdowns helpful as I can go back to the DVD and say, "ah, I missed that". I like watching what the O line does (probably because it is the only position in which I ever stood any chance) but much of what is very good, as opposed to pretty good or obviously bad passes me by. Damn, I need to go and see a Doctor; I just paid Box a compliment.

A lot of people can get a lot better at football knowledge if they just look at the line during the plays instead of the action... Whatever happens at the line effects what happens after the ball is put into action. Only after that do you see why the QB was off balance, or why the throw was early...

I honestly can't stand it when a RB gets stuffed in the backfield and the guy next to me starts screaming that the RB sucks... To which i reply that the guy that was supposed to be blocking sucks...

 

[Welker83]

That's not exactly true. Culpepper would benefit in short passing scheme. Back in Spetember, Joyner had an early season ESPN Insider article about how the Vikings were abandoning the short pass and were frequently going deep. Duante and the Vikings struggled as a result.

However, I agree that Duante is an upgrade, but looking at Miami WR metrics from 2004, I noticed that they were terrible in short/medium pass levels. I'll be getting SF: 2006 in the mail next month so I'll see what Joyner has to say about 2005.

Booker
Short Att: T-18th
Short c%: 80th
Short Tight/Good Coverage%: 62nd

Medium Att: 16th
Medium c%: T-46th
Medium Tight/Good Coverage%: T-50th

Chambers
Short Att: 4th
Short c%: 79th
Short Tight/Good Coverage%: T-48th

Medium Att: 25th
Medium c%: 70th
Medium Tight/Good Coverage%: 75th

McMichael (ranking among TEs):
Short Att: 3rd
Short c%: 20th
Short Tight/Good Coverage%: 24th

Medium Att: 15th
Medium c%: 18th
Medium Tight/Good Coverage%: 26th

The Pats, in 2004, ranked dead last in short pass attempts. The Pats have a risk/reward system that indicates that a short pass carries a high risk and low reward. The longer the pass, the higher the reward and the lower the risk. In 2004, the Pats got a great year out of Dillon so there was even less a need for short passes. If Ronnie Brown has a breakout season, then the Dolphins will likely be forced into throwing more deep passes. This is the area where Duante will have to prove himself.

This was because ferotte was about as accurate as a cat in heat w/ a Katnip IV... His balls were everywhere! I can't tell you how many times i was screaming as he'd throw a 5 yard out and the WR has to catch the ball at his feet! Ferotte was a good manager, had an OK arm, but he just killed me with his ball placement... It got to the point that if the ball was on target WR's were pdropping them because they were SHOCKED! If pep can just improve placement over ferotte (And add in some mobility) i'm thinking an extra 2 yards in Yards per attempt...

 

[Welker83]

It's not the STARS I'm worried about. I like the Pats to rule the division if the lines stay healthy and the scattered, fairly new assorted 2nd Team learns the ropes and gets in the groove like the 1st Team.

For Miami, A healthy Culpepper shouldn't be counted out. The guy's good. He had one bad start to a season on a team he lost hope in, then jumped to injured reserve. He was a major player the previous years. A back up in Harrington is still better then any Miami starter over the last 5 years.

But they also have line concerns. Ronnie Brown has NEVER carried the whole load at any level of play. There's no doubt he has potential but lets see how is body handles 20-25 carries, instead of 5-15. And like someone else pointed out, if he's out for even a half, Miami's got NOTHING behind them.

Chambers with a strong line and a healthy Culpepper will be dangerous as well as TE McMichael. Booker is good for 1st downs and there's still a few guys on D who can make some plays.

I think based on their schedule and misguided confidence, they'll probably do okay and possibly get to the playoffs. But their lack of experience and their "not yet" make up will probably see them eliminated first round.

I agree with many of you. They're at least a year away (with perfect drafting, pick ups and coaching) from being contenders.

Pats 12-4
Phins 11-5
Bills 6-10
Jets 4-12

Thanks for the post! Very thoughtful...

 

[Welker83]

Miami has no offensive line to speak of and a huge question mark at QB. I see Miami going 9-7 at best. Sure, teams cycle, you're right, but the Patriots have a HOF QB in his prime, and the youngest and most talented defensive line in the NFL. Oh yeah, they also have the best coach in the NFL, too. I think Miami will finish second, but probably at least 2 games behind NE.

ps- You are calling me a homer? Saban has never done a thing in the NFL and now Miami has a broken down QB who can't win a big game. Pot, kettle...

No offensive line? 2 Rb's w/ 4.4 YPC?
Top 5 in sacks given up?
Gus Gerotte at QB?

We have a line... And ALL the thanks goes to Hudson Houck..this guy is one of the best O-line guys i've ever seen. Also it should be better this year...last year all the depth was PS guys..we got some nice vets now to back them up.

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

Welker: Please tell me about your depth chart a tight end. I am wondering why Fins fans are so high on the TE position.

Do you find that Randy McMichaels is really 'special'? I think he is good, but I find it strange that you guys think you have Grambo, Watson, Thomas and Mills beat as far as TE talent and depth.

I would like to know what I am missing because some of your fellow fans are really excited about the TE position, and I don't know what quality depth you have or why people think Randy is a top level, elite kind of player. I'm not suggesting that he is bad, but I can't figure all the hype out. I've seen him play these last few years, but is he your only 'star' player at that position? I have trouble saying that he is better than the four of our players combined.

 

[Welker83]

Welker: Please tell me about your depth chart a tight end. I am wondering why Fins fans are so high on the TE position.

Do you find that Randy McMichaels is really 'special'? I think he is good, but I find it strange that you guys think you have Grambo, Watson, Thomas and Mills beat as far as TE talent and depth.

I would like to know what I am missing because some of your fellow fans are really excited about the TE position, and I don't know what quality depth you have or why people think Randy is a top level, elite kind of player. I'm not suggesting that he is bad, but I can't figure all the hype out. I've seen him play these last few years, but is he your only 'star' player at that position? I have trouble saying that he is better than the four of our players combined.

If you think about the situation in relation to what we had last year then you will understand why were so high... last year we had practice scrubs (diamond, heller, A Holmes, J rader) al bwehind randy...by the end of the year we just honestly stopped using them. Then this year we add in some good Vets..

J peele is our new #2... He played for the Chargers as the 2nd team blocker. He's a very consistent guy who can also catch some balls. He's not on the level of a daniel graham, but he's in the top quartile as a blocker. Now this alone would seem a pedestrian pick-up until you realize what effect it has on randy. Last year he started out on a very good clip,but then really trailed off at the end of the year. The reason was blocking. We kept him in cause we could trust no one else. If peele can come in and provide some protection it allows us to really use randy to his full potential (besides beating up his wife). Also culpepper has been really good so far with his TE/FB and he will love the ability of randy as he's a much better receiver than Kleinsausser or wiggins. These 2 reasons make us believe randy will have a very good season.

Behind him are some projects in Teyo Johnson... a former WR this guys a tall lanky receiver type with some good speed for a TE... Basically he's the back-up if randy's hurt. He's a project, but he's got promise.

Behind him is keith Heinrich who isn't a world beater, but he's quaility depth.

And honestly if you think about it another reason we are very high this year is our depth.... Last year almost all the 2's and 3's were scrubs. And this was almost across the board. The cupboard was bear so saban got what he needed and then never splurged after that. This year depth for the following positions is EXTREMLY upgraded. Pats fans know! Depth is everything cause injuries will happen.


In comparison to the pats i see the first two spots as a tie. Two all around guys with their own specialties..none are top in the league but all deserve the positions they play, and the respect they have has all been earned... After that you guys definatly have more young potential with your new draft picks... but all being even it means more to you guys. You guys will be running more 2 TE sets so having 3-4 quality guys is a must. We on the other hand had the most success running out of the traditionl pro-set so it's not as important for us to have so many TE's as it is to have a good FB...