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Sports Illustrated has the Pats winning the AFC East


Well that’s be amazing but going to keep my expectations lower
 

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Well that’s be amazing but going to keep my expectations lower
Unlike the celtics, this year's team has no expectations.. so anything positive is a good thing.
 
Homir

The Pats defense stopped NOT one post season team. I recall a time when the Pats defense shut down Peyton Manning in his prime. Nobody needed to look at DVOA or any other homer BS to try to sell fake news, because product was a win vs a quality QB. The Pats defense was the truth.

Those were the days.

Rule changes/rule emphasis changes have made it much harder for defenses to stop offenses since the Brady/Manning rivalry saw its last game.

DVOA ratings compare how different teams fare under similar circumstances and provides context to how the Patriots' defense compares to other defenses; that said it's not surprising that other high ranked defenses also have difficulty stopping elite offenses.

The good news is that the Patriots addressed their defensive achilles heel in the draft and should be able to more effectively slow down elite offenses in 2023.
 
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As always the truth is somewhere in the middle.

True, the Patriots defense shone brightest against inferior QBs, just as they did in 2021 (see the case of Jackson, JC - destroyer of Sam Darnold, primary food source of Stephon Diggs). True, the Patriots defense got asshanded by Kirk Cousins during the only game that their offense showed up all year.

The flipside is this...the defense held Cincinnati to 22, Buffalo to 24, then Buffalo to 21 (offensive points) a month later. A competent offense wins at least two of those games.
 
THIS is how the Pats can win THIS year. And I'll do it as briefly as I can.

1. This is the NFL. EVERY player is a very, very good football player, from you best player to the last guy on the roster. Think about it this way. About 5-10% of every HS football player plays college ball. And then THAT number grows lower when you add guys who get scholarships and lower STILL when you consider those who play division one ball.

Think about this - there are 133 colleges that play division 1 football - Each school can have a maximum of 85 scholarships- That's 11,300 football players. Let's assume that means there are about 5500 hundred juniors and seniors that the NFL is choosing from. Or let's round it off to 6,000 when you add FCS, division 2 and 3 schools. So from that pool of around 6,000 the NFL will select around 250 players when you add all the comp picks (last draft it was 259) That means if you are good enough to be a scholarship football player your chances of getting drafted are less than one HALF of 1%.. And of those lucky 250, less than half will make NFL rosters this season.

So when I say that EVERY NFL player is a very good player, this isn't just MY opinion, it's a statistical fact. Just look at the winnowing out process. Now it is my belief that 90-95% of those player who actually make the NFL can be lumped into one basic category of playing level. Very good players who become NFL starters or valued back ups. These are the players who love the game enough to continue to improve AFTER they enter the league. (think Detrich Wise) Then there are those 5-10% (and I think 10% is high) who are the stars. The next level players who elevate everyone else.

2. So in reality the physical abilities of EVERYONE'S roster is going to be generally pretty equal and THAT is why "on any given Sunday" is not a cliche, and most NFL games are close going into the 4th quarter. Don't you remember all those close games each year with the Jets, Phins, and Bills when it was the AFCLeast and we were at our best?

Most of these off season ratings are the product of assessing all the QUESTIONS each team will have through TC. I get it why WE are being rated lower, its because we have the MOST question marks of any team in the division.......AT THIS POINT. It is fair, BUT this is an assessment long before the season starts. It will be up to the COACHING staff to create answers to those questions over the next 100 days. Some of those question marks WILL get answered before the season and some won't become apparent until the season starts.

3 That leads me to an element you can't quantify at this point and THAT is coaching. In NO other professional team sport does coaching make as big a impact to winning and losing than football. Our success over the first 2 decades of this century occurred BECAUSE the team bought into coaching staff. That kind of buy in is EARNED over the years. It was earned because the guys believed that THEIR game plans and adjustments put them in the best position to execute and win. They believed that the best players don't win, but the best TEAMS.

Like I said in the beginning, EVERYONE is good in this league, so when most games are close going into the 4th quarter it is going to be the team who is MOST disciplined. The team who makes the FEWEST mistakes. And the team that makes that ONE big play or doesn't make that one big mistake, that will usually determine who will in that day. Of all fan bases, WE should know this the best because in the largest part of what I have just described was what we saw every year for the first 20 years of this century. WE were the team that wasn't necessarily the most talented, but we were always the most disciplined, the mentally toughest, and made the fewest mental mistakes. This is why I never got the hew and cry for more "all star" players. You need to build the best TEAM, not necessarily accumulate "all stars".

4. Let's us look at THIS coming season on a par with the 2001 season. Back in 2001 we had MANY more questions about our OL than now. Back then we were going to start a rookie at LT. Our RT (Randle) was out of the league 2 years later. We had 2 JAGs at G, and a young C who was good, but couldn't make a shotgun snap. Compared to THAT our OL looks great. I don't want to start on the D, but more question then than now. At QB, we need Jones to be just like Brady was in 2001. We need him to be the point guard. The distributor, the guy who keeps the chains moving and translate red zone trips into TD rather than FG's. So IF all that happens, we COULD win this division like the article says. This is a division that will likely eat its own. It will be very hard for any team to win 12 games

5. Now here's the thing. We have spent most of this century believing we ALWAYS had a chance to win because most of the time we KNEW that we would go into a game with a better game plan and a more disciplined and mentally tough football team. Clearly we cannot take that for granted now. THIS Is going to be a year when trust is going to have to be RE-EARNED. And that is only going to happen when the players actually SEE the coaching work. It starts in TC. Are the drills making them better. Are the position coaches pointing things out that will make them better. Do the plays and schemes make sense. Are they working in scrimmages and preseason games?

And then there are the final test when they get into the season. Is the coaching good enough that the game plans translate into wins, OR when they don't, do the players see the reasons WHY they lost and believe it wasn't the plan that was wrong, but THEIR execution of it. By in is earned and winning is the easiest way to do it, but it isn't the ONLY way. But in the end, Bill AND his entire staff are going to have to rebuild that trust, especially on offense.

Now I believe they will and as bad as it was last year, with a bad roster, key injuries, bad coaching, bad QB play, and bad discipline, that team STILL managed to win 8 games and going into the 4th quarter of the last game had a chance to win and go to the playoffs. So how bad was it....really. That DISASTER of a season for us would have been a success for Jets fans for most of this century.

6. So that, in short, ;) is a map to a division winning season. Build a tight knit disciplined team who isn't going to lose games with dumb plays and mistakes and is more likely to win those close games than lose them. AND be lucky with injuries, bounces, bad calls.....and win the TO battles.
 
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THIS is how the Pats can win THIS year. And I'll do it as briefly as I can.

1. This is the NFL. EVERY player is a very, very good football player, from you best player to the last guy on the roster. Think about it this way. About 5-10% of every HS football player plays college ball. And then THAT number grows lower when you add guys who get scholarships and lower STILL when you consider those who play division one ball.

Think about this - there are 133 colleges that play division 1 football - Each school can have a maximum of 85 scholarships- That's 11,300 football players. Let's assume that means there are about 5500 hundred juniors and seniors that the NFL is choosing from. Or let's round it off to 6,000 when you add FCS, division 2 and 3 schools. So from that pool of around 6,000 the NFL will select around 250 players when you add all the comp picks (last draft it was 259) That means if you are good enough to be a scholarship football player your chances of getting drafted are less than one HALF of 1%.. And of those lucky 250, less than half will make NFL rosters this season.

So when I say that EVERY NFL player is a very good player, this isn't just MY opinion, it's a statistical fact. Just look at the winnowing out process. Now it is my belief that 90-95% of those player who actually make the NFL can be lumped into one basic category of playing level. Very good players who become NFL starters or valued back ups. These are the players who love the game enough to continue to improve AFTER they enter the league. (think Detrich Wise) Then there are those 5-10% (and I think 10% is high) who are the stars. The next level players who elevate everyone else.

2. So in reality the physical abilities of EVERYONE'S roster is going to be generally pretty equal and THAT is why "on any given Sunday" is not a cliche, and most NFL games are close going into the 4th quarter. Don't you remember all those close games each year with the Jets, Phins, and Bills when it was the AFCLeast and we were at our best?

Most of these off season ratings are the product of assessing all the QUESTIONS each team will have through TC. I get it why WE are being rated lower, its because we have the MOST question marks of any team in the division.......AT THIS POINT. It is fair, BUT this is an assessment long before the season starts. It will be up to the COACHING staff to create answers to those questions over the next 100 days. Some of those question marks WILL get answered before the season and some won't become apparent until the season starts.

3 That leads me to an element you can't quantify at this point and THAT is coaching. In NO other professional team sport does coaching make as big a impact to winning and losing than football. Our success over the first 2 decades of this century occurred BECAUSE the team bought into coaching staff. That kind of buy in is EARNED over the years. It was earned because the guys believed that THEIR game plans and adjustments put them in the best position to execute and win. They believed that the best players don't win, but the best TEAMS.

Like I said in the beginning, EVERYONE is good in this league, so when most games are close going into the 4th quarter it is going to be the team who is MOST disciplined. The team who makes the FEWEST mistakes. And the team that makes that ONE big play or doesn't make that one big mistake, that will usually determine who will in that day. Of all fan bases, WE should know this the best because in the largest part of what I have just described was what we saw every year for the first 20 years of this century. WE were the team that wasn't necessarily the most talented, but we were always the most disciplined, the mentally toughest, and made the fewest mental mistakes. This is why I never got the hew and cry for more "all star" players. You need to build the best TEAM, not necessarily accumulate "all stars".

4. Let's us look at THIS coming season on a par with the 2001 season. Back in 2001 we had MANY more questions about our OL than now. Back then we were going to start a rookie at LT. Our RT (Randle) was out of the league 2 years later. We had 2 JAGs at G, and a young C who was good, but couldn't make a shotgun snap. Compared to THAT our OL looks great. I don't want to start on the D, but more question then than now. At QB, we need Jones to be just like Brady was in 2001. We need him to be the point guard. The distributor, the guy who keeps the chains moving and translate red zone trips into TD rather than FG's. So IF all that happens, we COULD win this division like the article says. This is a division that will likely eat its own. It will be very hard for any team to win 12 games

5. Now here's the thing. We have spent most of this century believing we ALWAYS had a chance to win because most of the time we KNEW that we would go into a game with a better game plan and a more disciplined and mentally tough football team. Clearly we cannot take that for granted now. THIS Is going to be a year when trust is going to have to be RE-EARNED. And that is only going to happen when the players actually SEE the coaching work. It starts in TC. Are the drills making them better. Are the position coaches pointing things out that will make them better. Do the plays and schemes make sense. Are they working in scrimmages and preseason games?

And then there are the final test when they get into the season. Is the coaching good enough that the game plans translate into wins, OR when they don't, do the players see the reasons WHY they lost and believe it wasn't the plan that was wrong, but THEIR execution of it. By in is earned and winning is the easiest way to do it, but it isn't the ONLY way. But in the end, Bill AND his entire staff are going to have to rebuild that trust, especially on offense.

Now I believe they will and as bad as it was last year, with a bad roster, key injuries, bad coaching, bad QB play, and bad discipline, that team STILL managed to win 8 games and going into the 4th quarter of the last game had a chance to win and go to the playoffs. So how bad was it....really. That DISASTER of a season for us would have been a success for Jets fans for most of this century.

6. So that, in short, ;) is a map to a division winning season. Build a tight knit disciplined team who isn't going to lose games with dumb plays and mistakes and is more likely to win those close games than lose them. AND be lucky with injuries, bounces, bad calls.....and win the TO battles.
Agree with almost all of this Ken, here’s my issue. Last season was one of the most unpatriot like seasons I’ve seen, the only one coming even close being 2009 when BB was famously overheard saying “I just can’t get them to play the way I need to” with Brady nodding. False starts, players running into each other, no rhythm or flow to the game, being the team that played dumb and made the big mistake at the worst possible time even from their best players (looking at you jakobi in the raiders game). All the things as you pointed out for 20 years we had a clear and decisive advantage on. I’m as big a BB homer as you will find here, but that **** show last year has even me going hmm. So as a former coach how do you fix it? Keeping in mind BB isn’t much younger than you and you prefer the casino floor these days to yelling at gen z guys who have phones surgically attached to their hands. Seems like a huge ask in one year
 
.

Now I believe they will and as bad as it was last year, with a bad roster, key injuries, bad coaching, bad QB play, and bad discipline, that team STILL managed to win 8 games and going into the 4th quarter of the last game had a chance to win and go to the playoffs. So how bad was it....really. That DISASTER of a season for us would have been a success for Jets fans for most of this century.

6. So that, in short, ;) is a map to a division winning season. Build a tight knit disciplined team who isn't going to lose games with dumb plays and mistakes and is more likely to win those close games than lose them. AND be lucky with injuries, bounces, bad calls.....and win the TO battles.
I like the short version above.

BOTTOM LINE
With all the 2022 issues, the team (as you said) was competitive for a playoff spot until the last quarter of the last game of the season.

So, we WERE a playoff contender in 2022. I don't see why we shouldn't be considered a contender this year.

The open questions are whether we are better this year, and how healthy and lucky we will be.
 
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Agree with almost all of this Ken, here’s my issue. Last season was one of the most unpatriot like seasons I’ve seen, the only one coming even close being 2009 when BB was famously overheard saying “I just can’t get them to play the way I need to” with Brady nodding. False starts, players running into each other, no rhythm or flow to the game, being the team that played dumb and made the big mistake at the worst possible time even from their best players (looking at you jakobi in the raiders game). All the things as you pointed out for 20 years we had a clear and decisive advantage on. I’m as big a BB homer as you will find here, but that **** show last year has even me going hmm. So as a former coach how do you fix it? Keeping in mind BB isn’t much younger than you and you prefer the casino floor these days to yelling at gen z guys who have phones surgically attached to their hands. Seems like a huge ask in one year
Well last year, imho, I believe believe Bill hoped he could get by with the Judge/Patricia pairing on offense for a year while BOB was contractually bound to Alabama. He HOPED it would work, but he clearly was mistaken. It was probably the biggest mistake he has made in his 24 years as our HC. Bound to happen. I'd like to think he was due, though the massive losses of coaches in the last few years didn't help. He didn't a good choice to replace Josh on his staff, and went with what he had. Again, massive fail. BUT....that was last year. New year, new team, new coach combination

I do NOT think the game has passed him by. He looks as sharp and acerbic as usual. I DO wonder how well the offensive coaching line up will perform individually and as a unit. I have fewer worries on defense where we have pretty much everyone back. We ALL lose something off your fast ball as you get older. But I have found the more active and intellectually engaged you are the sharper you remain. The brain is like a muscle in that sense. The more you are active and using it the better it works. I don't use my mind NEARLY enough and suffer the effects. Bill is obviously younger and much more active and involved and it shows. The decades of mental discipline he's had to maintain clearly helps, AND he is still very physically active and healthy.

I know I'm not as sharp as I was, but I'm dealing with heart, vascular, kidney, and diabetes issues, which might be the reason I'm always looking for my keys and phone. Bill has NONE of these problems to go along with his exceptional mental discipline. At my best I'm not nearly as smart as Bill is. I don't know why this is even an issue to be frank with you. That being said, if I see the same lack of mental discipline in this year's group, then I might think differently, but I seriously doubt it. Mistakes WILL be made, but I doubt they will be an endemic problem. But regardless of MY opinion, the proof will be in the pudding
 
Well last year, imho, I believe believe Bill hoped he could get by with the Judge/Patricia pairing on offense for a year while BOB was contractually bound to Alabama. He HOPED it would work, but he clearly was mistaken. It was probably the biggest mistake he has made in his 24 years as our HC. Bound to happen. I'd like to think he was due, though the massive losses of coaches in the last few years didn't help. He didn't a good choice to replace Josh on his staff, and went with what he had. Again, massive fail. BUT....that was last year. New year, new team, new coach combination

I do NOT think the game has passed him by. He looks as sharp and acerbic as usual. I DO wonder how well the offensive coaching line up will perform individually and as a unit. I have fewer worries on defense where we have pretty much everyone back. We ALL lose something off your fast ball as you get older. But I have found the more active and intellectually engaged you are the sharper you remain. The brain is like a muscle in that sense. The more you are active and using it the better it works. I don't use my mind NEARLY enough and suffer the effects. Bill is obviously younger and much more active and involved and it shows. The decades of mental discipline he's had to maintain clearly helps, AND he is still very physically active and healthy.

I know I'm not as sharp as I was, but I'm dealing with heart, vascular, kidney, and diabetes issues, which might be the reason I'm always looking for my keys and phone. Bill has NONE of these problems to go along with his exceptional mental discipline. At my best I'm not nearly as smart as Bill is. I don't know why this is even an issue to be frank with you. That being said, if I see the same lack of mental discipline in this year's group, then I might think differently, but I seriously doubt it. Mistakes WILL be made, but I doubt they will be an endemic problem. But regardless of MY opinion, the proof will be in the pudding
Sorry Ken I didn’t mean for that to be a personal attack on you or your life style, I rank you right up there with bacon for value added to the board. So I respect your opinion a great deal. I wasn’t saying BB is not the coach he once was or that I think he should be replaced by some one younger. What I was hoping to get was more specific things you would do as a coach to get the message across to a group of young guys who have been hearing non stop in the media how AWFUL the coaching was last year to buy in and get back to patriot football, smart, dependable, disciplined, tough, and aware of the situation. All areas I attribute to good coaching that were lacking last year.

I can deal with losing, as you point out again and again winning is hard, every player is elite compared to the average college player. As long as they play hard and do their best the outcome is less of an issue for me. What I can’t handle watching again is dumb football, which we were subjected to far too often last year.
 

3 That leads me to an element you can't quantify at this point and THAT is coaching. In NO other professional team sport does coaching make as big a impact to winning and losing than football. Our success over the first 2 decades of this century occurred BECAUSE the team bought into coaching staff. That kind of buy in is EARNED over the years. It was earned because the guys believed that THEIR game plans and adjustments put them in the best position to execute and win. They believed that the best players don't win, but the best TEAMS.

Like I said in the beginning, EVERYONE is good in this league, so when most games are close going into the 4th quarter it is going to be the team who is MOST disciplined. The team who makes the FEWEST mistakes. And the team that makes that ONE big play or doesn't make that one big mistake, that will usually determine who will in that day. Of all fan bases, WE should know this the best because in the largest part of what I have just described was what we saw every year for the first 20 years of this century. WE were the team that wasn't necessarily the most talented, but we were always the most disciplined, the mentally toughest, and made the fewest mental mistakes. This is why I never got the hew and cry for more "all star" players. You need to build the best TEAM, not necessarily accumulate "all stars".
Agree with almost all of this Ken, here’s my issue. Last season was one of the most unpatriot like seasons I’ve seen, the only one coming even close being 2009 when BB was famously overheard saying “I just can’t get them to play the way I need to” with Brady nodding. False starts, players running into each other, no rhythm or flow to the game, being the team that played dumb and made the big mistake at the worst possible time even from their best players (looking at you jakobi in the raiders game). All the things as you pointed out for 20 years we had a clear and decisive advantage on. I’m as big a BB homer as you will find here, but that **** show last year has even me going hmm. So as a former coach how do you fix it? Keeping in mind BB isn’t much younger than you and you prefer the casino floor these days to yelling at gen z guys who have phones surgically attached to their hands. Seems like a huge ask in one year
Well last year, imho, I believe believe Bill hoped he could get by with the Judge/Patricia pairing on offense for a year while BOB was contractually bound to Alabama. He HOPED it would work, but he clearly was mistaken. It was probably the biggest mistake he has made in his 24 years as our HC. Bound to happen. I'd like to think he was due, though the massive losses of coaches in the last few years didn't help. He didn't a good choice to replace Josh on his staff, and went with what he had. Again, massive fail. BUT....that was last year. New year, new team, new coach combination

I do NOT think the game has passed him by. He looks as sharp and acerbic as usual. I DO wonder how well the offensive coaching line up will perform individually and as a unit. I have fewer worries on defense where we have pretty much everyone back. …
Last year was the antithesis of what Ken describes in his point 3, first quote. I think that the setup with Judge/Patricia was doomed before it started, with all the second guessing and sniping at Bill‘s decision making to put them in charge that started even before training camp opened. Players were predisposed to question, not buy in, and even the slightest issue was magnified and things snowballed out of control. It didn’t help that there were lots of major issues. Result was the entire team did not buy into their coaching, checked out, and freelanced with sandlot plays like that Meyers lateral fiasco. (And can you believe folks wanted to keep him after that reversion to Pop Warner?)

Biggest question I see for this year is not OL or lack of WR talent or any of the usual questions. It is whether players buy into their coaching. I’d expect that locker room chemistry will be a big factor in roster building. Thinking about it, I wonder if Hopkins is a dead issue just because of his fraught history with BOB and the attendant risk that their relationship would be shaky when the team needs rock solid alignment between players and coaches. In the same vein I’ll be interested to see how much leash BOB and BB give Bourne after he was reportedly a ringleader in the dissent last year. Likewise, Jack Jones will be another interesting player to watch. I expect early training camp cuts will likely include a lot of housecleaning, cutting players whose attitudes aren’t buying into the Patriot Way element of belief in their coaches.
 
… a group of young guys who have been hearing non stop in the media how AWFUL the coaching was last year to buy in and get back to patriot football, smart, dependable, disciplined, tough, and aware of the situation. All areas I attribute to good coaching that were lacking last year.
^^^ that’s the real problem!

Remember when “IGNORE THE HYPE” and “IGNORE THE NOISE” were keystones of the Patriot Way?

Last year the players took the outside noise to heart over what they heard from their coaches. The results speak for themselves.
 
DVOA ratings compare how different teams fare under similar circumstances and provides context to how the Patriots' defense compares to other defenses; that said it's not surprising that other high ranked defenses also have difficulty stopping elite offenses.
DVOA is adjusted for strength of opponent so it punishes defenses that only play well vs inferior offenses. The Pats defense in 2022 actually did better vs stronger offenses than vs weaker ones (#3 overall vs #4 unweighted). Those who say the Pats defense feasted on inferior offenses to get their #3 DVOA are pulling that claim out of their arses.

There's also weighted DVOA, which weights games at the end of the season more than those at the beginning of the season. The Pats defense by this measure ended #1 in the league vs #3 for the full season. Those that claim the Pats defense collapsed at the end of the year are also pulling that from their arses.

I've already dealt with the ppg discrepancy where the Pats were only 11th in ppg by pointing out that the special teams and offense gave more points up than on almost any other team and the Pats defense scored more points than any other defense. Factor those into ppg and the Pats defense also led the league in adjusted ppg, i.e. consistent with DVOA.

I am amused by the troll who claimed DVOA was for homers, as if that system was designed to make the Pats look good. Pure projection by a guy who definitely cites or invents pseudo-stats to make the Pats look bad.

The trolls here are vicious and vociferous but never back their claims up with evidence. Some are knaves; some are fools; some are both.

 
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(What) specific things you would do as a coach to get the message across to a group of young guys who have been hearing non stop in the media how AWFUL the coaching was last year to buy in and get back to patriot football
Maybe publicly support your starting QB who has been besieged by unrelenting attacks and speculation since the end of the 2022 season.

Can the players be expected to fully buy in when their coach demonstrates such tepid support at the most critical position?
And can the players be expected to completely erase from their consciousness many of Bill's destructive decisions that have led to such disorganization and mediocrity since Brady sprinted out of NE?

Of course "buy in" is integral in such a demanding sport.
The question really should be: Are Bill and his Friends & Family loyalists capable of achieving 'buy in"?
Some might argue that ship has sailed (reported sightings in Port Tampa)
 
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Rule changes/rule emphasis changes have made it much harder for defenses to stop offenses since the Brady/Manning rivalry saw its last game.

DVOA ratings compare how different teams fare under similar circumstances and provides context to how the Patriots' defense compares to other defenses; that said it's not surprising that other high ranked defenses also have difficulty stopping elite offenses.

The good news is that the Patriots addressed their defensive achilles heel in the draft and should be able to more effectively slow down elite offenses in 2023.
I understand what DVOA is. I used to visit Football Outsiders every day.

The 49ers and Cowboys had better defensive DVOAs than NE. The Chiefs were average DDVOA and won it all. DVOA doesnt really matter in a QB driven league which was the original point that I was trying to get through to the homers.
 
But we didn’t give up after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. Can’t give up after last season.

I always wondered how the Germans got away with flying more than halfway around the world -- including across the entire U.S. -- to bomb Pearl Harbor. No way could they have returned home afterward without stopping to refuel somewhere. I suppose that's how the kamikaze attacks started.
 


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