I agree with the principle, but I think it's more true for some positions than others. In recent years, college production hasn't been a great predictor of NFL success for pass-rushing DE/OLBs. Clay Matthews and Cameron Wake come to mind as two who did precious little in college, while Everette Brown and Larry English lead the LONG list of players who were hugely productive in college and have made little impact in the NFL.
They use all sorts of criteria but ultimately they choose players based on how good they think they will become as pro's, not simply upon their college production. The Seymour pick was a great example of this, his college numbers were nothing special but his development as a pro was, hopefully Jones is a similar case.