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Future cap question?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by cstjohn17, Aug 23, 2007.

  1. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Just looking at next years cap, the Patriots are right up against it.

    Projected cap $116 M
    Current count $100 M

    http://www.patscap.com/futureyears.html

    On paper it appears that there is no way they keep Stallworth $6.3M hit or Washington 5.8M hit (if he makes the team). We may be rebuilding the WR core again after next year (Moss, Caldwell, Gaffney are free agents)

    08 Priorities \ Questions
    - Stallworth - $6.3M, unless he really lights it up he is hard to keep at this number
    - Washington - $5.8M impossible to keep at this number
    - Colvin - $7.3, not as high as I thought seems like he is worth keeping or extending
    - Brady is at $14, it may be time to lock him up for 5-6 years
    - Light - $5M, seems like he is worth keeping

    Possible candidates for early extensions (all three have contracts that expire after 2009, extending them 2 years early ala Ty Warren could save the Patriots a lot of money and help keep some key players on the team )
    - Wilfork
    - Mankins
    - Hobbs
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2007
  2. khayos

    khayos Rookie

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    I'd say that TB will adjust, Kelley Washington OR Donte won't be here at those numbers, and something might happen with Rosey.
  3. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Washington is currently fighting for a fifth or sixth WR roster spot. No way will he be retained at his option price. If he is on the team next season, he will need to do some major renegotiations.

    I think Stallworth would have to have a monster year to see his option too. If he doesn't, he may be willing to renegotiate depending on how well he did. From what we heard about him before he signed with us, he is going to want to get paid for a good to great season though.

    I think this could be Harrison's last year. He is getting up there in age and if he wins he could want to go out on top. As long as he plays like we all think he can play, he will have a spot on the team though.

    I expect Colvin to be extended. His pass rushing skills have been underrated on this team. He is very good at rushing the passer. I think he is happy to retire here if he can. So I think he will get a three or so year extention.

    I think Wilfork will get an extension next offseason. Belichick is high on him (as well he should) and the NT position is arguably the most important position in a 3-4 defense. Besides, they locked up Seymour and Warren at this time too. Belichick and Pioli value the d-line more than other areas when it comes to locking up players.

    I don't think Hobbs or Mankins will get an extension unless they take serious discounts. They both play in positions that Belichick and Pioli don't seem to be too quick to make extensions.
  4. PatsFan37

    PatsFan37 Rookie

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    #37 Jersey

    I'd love to see Harrison decide to be a coach instead of a ref. He'd be one heckuva great secondary coach, and I could see him as a HC farther down. He loves the game, he's tough, and he's smart.

    Hobbs may be the exception to the rule on CBs. From all indications, he's more Bruschi than Law, more Harrison than Samuel. I wouldn't be surprised to see him want to stay here and not seek the biggest payday.

    Disagree on Mankins. Light, Neal, Koppen all got extensions. Mankins is another Patriots guy. Heck, when they drafted him, I believe they were looking all the way down the road to an extension, choosing a guy with his character.

    Agree on Washington, he'll have to renegotiate to stay. Stallworth, I don't know. He may turn out well and be left as is. Agree on Colvin.
  5. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think all of Light, Neal, and Koppen either got deals in the last year of their contract or as free agents. Neal did get a RFA tender one season if I am correct. They rarely do two years in advance like they did with Seymour and Warren. That is what I meant, but looking back at my post I clearly didn't state it that way.
  6. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It's actually $110M or less than $6M under, but that's with 49 players signed. Up against the cap is when your committments exceed the projected cap and you're facing certain cuts just to get under.

    It's doubtful Washington will be here at anything approaching his $5.7M cap hit, although his deal has sub $2M basically all salary cap hits going forward so a simple restructure would drop his 2008 hit by $3M+. A couple of million would likely be pushed forward via converting roster to signing bonus on a Stallworth retention as well. Rosie is ripe for extension which would drop his cap hit probably close to half, as is Brady (although he still has ample room for simple restructure). Matt Light's deal is nothing but salary in the final year so his deal too is easily restructured. They could restructure/extend themselves into an additional $12M or so in cap room without causing future difficulties. That would have them at almost $18M under the 2008 cap with 49 players still signed. Then there is the matter of their still being $8M under the 2007 cap - money that can be used to extend a couple of WR if they wish/decide to and/or rolled over into 2008.
  7. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We have 49 players signed. We are hardly right up against it with $6M left. We about even with the board. We could simply convert almost all of Brady's and Washington's salaries to bonus, easily freeing enough cap money for anything we need. There certainly are needs. Let's look at the roster.

    For this analyis I will assume that Baker beats out Mitchell for the final ST spot, and that Richardson beats out James. I will eliminate players who won't make this year's team.

    Obviously, we could extend Moss instead of keeping Stallworth or Washington.

    Note that I presume that we keep our ERFA's and RFA's. Wright could be offered the highest tender if needed.

    We will have rookies to replace some of the players on the current list that I don't include because they won't make this year's roster.
    ----------------------
    OFFENSE (24)
    QB - Brady, Cassell, Gutierrez (or replacement)
    RB - Maroney, Faulk, Morris
    FB - Evans
    TE - Watson, Brady, Thomas
    OL - Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaycur, Hochstein, Yates, O'Callaghan, Britt
    WR - Stallworth, Washington, Welker, Jackson, fa

    DEFENSE (26)
    DL - Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright, Smith, Brown
    LB - Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, Woods, Alexander, Rogers, fa, fa, fa
    CB - Hobbs, Richardson, Jackson, fa
    S - Harrison, Sanders, Meriweather, Baker, Andrews, fa

    SPECIALISTS (3)
    K - Gostkowski
    P - Baugher
    DS - fa

    BOTTOM LINE
    1) The 2008 offense is ready to go, with a minor tweak or two.
    2) The 2008 DL is signed and ready to go.
    3) We need some help at CB and LB, as we do every year.
    4) We need to sign or replace Lonnie
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2007
  8. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    I don't think there is too much to worry about, you have a ProBowl QB, Probowl DE, and most of your defensive starters (Bruschi & Gay/Samuel). Hopefully the coach returns...

    Starters not signed:
    - Moss
    - Bruschi
    - Samuel
    - Wilson

    Other contributors not signed:
    - Gaffney
    - Caldwell
    - Gay
    - Seau

    The theme is WR, CB, LB.


    $6M is not a lot, they could clear more but $6M is nothing. About $3M will be part of the rookie pool. We could see some creative extensions or restructures but 5 or 6 in one season seems like a lot. Next year looks like more will be done with in-house personnel than the spending spree the team went on this year.

    I don't know how the 2008 offense is ready to with such question marks at WR.

    I agree with the following:
    CB depth - looks awful
    LB depth is also suspect
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2007
  9. solman

    solman Rookie

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    Actually Miguel's calculation is that we have just $5.2M in cap space for 2008, but none of this adds up to cap difficulty:

    1. There are 49 players currently signed for 2008. Add in our 2008 draft picks (including 5 on the first day), and we've got more than a full team under contract.

    2. Several of these players will be cut before the 2007 season even ends.

    3. We will probably push several million of 2007 cap into 2008 (we pushed nearly $4M into this year).

    4. Several players are in potential renegotiate or cut situations for 2008: Stallworth, Washington, Colvin, Harrison and Faulk amongst others. All of these players can play well enough in 2007 to guarantee their continued presence on the team at their present salary, but its pretty unlikely that ALL of them will do so. [BTW, this includes Washington. Although his 2008 cap hit would be nearly $6M, his average cap hit for 2008-2011 would be just over $3M. If he plays well enough to be a genuine #2 receiver, he'll clearly be worth it. Especially with most of our other receivers potentially leaving after this year.]

    5. We have plenty of opportunities to push cap hits into future years, starting with Brady.

    Our salary cap health will continue into 2009 when we lose few key players, and we have over $32M in cap space for that year. Only in 2010, when we'll have an exceptionally painful free agent class, do things get tricky.
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2007
  10. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We add players every season. Every season players leave. $6M is fine when you have 49 players under contract, $8M in excess cap in 2007 and contracts that are set up to be restructure friendly for 2008. Brady's cap hit in 2010 is still just $10M. Mannings is roughly double that for the next 3 - there is a distinct difference between having to restructure and being easily able to, although Miguel will tell you both approaches can work just fine. Light has no cap hit save $4.5M in salary in 2010 (when LT cap hits will be routinely approaching double that) - dumping some of his 2008 salary into the future will not create any problems - in part because he had little signing bonus to begin with and it was only spread through 2009. Stallworth's 2008-2011 scheduled cap hits are between $4M and 6M which if he works out as a #1 will make him affordable and restructure friendly.

    The will certainly need to sign or re-sign some talent to replace any we are potentially losing. But they will easily have the cash and cap to do just that. Finding the talent - and at a compensation level they can live with philosophically within their salary structure - is much more of a concern than being able to afford it. But that is always the case here.
  11. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    A couple of things. The first is that the Pats usually attempt to sign players to extensions. They tried with Branch, Givens, and Graham. It takes both sides. Also, its unlikely that the Pats will talk to these guys about extesions while they still have more than 2 years left on their contract.

    According to Miguel's page, the Pats are only about 5.2 million under next year's cap (if its not adjusted). However, that includes the 12 million currently assigned to Stallworth and Washington.

    I just don't see Washington making this team so I don't see an issue with that 5.7 million because it won't be an issue. That would leave the Pats with about 10.9 million. Still not a lot considering who is going to be free agents next year. Samuel, Wilson, Bruschi, Caldwell, Gaffney, Moss, Gay, Paxton, Seau and C. Scott.

    For next year, the Pats have Welker and Jackson signed as WR. They also have Ben Watson and David Thomas as TEs. It could be a mini-rebuilding year. But with 2 1st round picks and 2 3rd round picks, they should be able to bring in a plethora of young talent to off-set some of the losses.
  12. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Most years are rebuilding years in the NFL, it is amazing how well the Patriots have sustained their level. They should end up with about 10-15 of cap space which is ok, not a whole lot but ok.


    Although not directly related while reading nfl.com this jumped off the page
    "» Chad Jackson, WR, New England Patriots: He could wind up being cut as easily as landing on the PUP."
    http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d801b6cd6&template=with-video&confirm=true

    What makes this a killer is it shows how the draft impacts the cap. It is nothing specific to Jackson, I don't like or dislike him as a player. A big part of the Patriots success has been the ability to draft players and turn them into starters. When this doesn't happen and veterans have to be brought in and the cap starts to hurt.

    In 2006 the Patriots gave up two day 1 picks (numbers 52 & 67) to draft Jackson. This was a very high risk move, WR has a high bust factor and in general players drafted have about a 50/50 of making the roster. Although with day 1 picks there is a moderate level of expectation that the players will at least provide quality depth. With Jackson not even providing depth they have had to pay more money to go out and get veteran replacements. It looks like he will be 1/2 way through his rookie deal before he had a chance to make any impact.

    At least in 06 the draft provided a lot of depth, aside from starters (Maroney and Ghost) depth was added with (Thomas, O'Callaghan, Smith and maybe Mills). The 07 draft looks like it will add less to the roster. Without starters emerging from the draft the cap starts to impacted.

    ------------------
    Hindsight is 20/20 but it makes it even more painful there was a lot of good players on the board with the original Patriots picks.

    Some players who were available with the Patriot picks.
    2006 - Round 2
    Sel # Player Position School Team

    52 Greg Jennings WR Western Michigan Green Bay Packers <-- original Patriot pick
    57 Devin Hester DB Miami (Fla.) Chicago Bears
    58 Richard Marshall CB Fresno State Carolina Panthers
    59 Jeremy Trueblood T Boston College Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    60 Maurice Jones-Drew RB UCLA Jacksonville Jaguars <-- this is the guy I wish the drafted, I watched him in college, dynamic returner and big play threat, a single player like this can transform an entire offense

    2006 - Round 3
    Sel # Player Position School Team
    67 Abdul Hodge LB Iowa Green Bay Packers <-- original Patriot pick
    70 Ashton Youboty CB Ohio State Buffalo Bills
    74 Brian Calhoun RB Wisconsin Detroit Lions
    79 Jerious Norwood RB Mississippi State Atlanta Falcons
    82 Derek Hagan WR Arizona State Miami Dolphins
    83 Anthony Smith DB Syracuse Pittsburgh Steelers
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2007
  13. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Thank you for accurately stating my position.

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