Ebner now ahead of T. Wilson on the depth chart

[BennyBledsoe]

Yeah you know like Tom Brady in the 6th.

....which would still be well after the second round.

 

[supafly]

Overall I don’t think it’s about the drafting in the situation of Tavon Wilson, I see more issue with the development of him, even if he was taken premature he had 42 tackles, 4 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries as a rookie. For me I am questioning WTF happen during the offseason more than I am questioning his being selected in the second round.

It's certainly a fair question that warrants pondering, but many here actually felt that he was not very good last year either despite the production that you're referring to. He had that stretch last year where he made the same exact, inexcusable mistake at the end of the SEA game--then on the first drive of the STL game the very next week.

He was in Belichick's doghouse a bit, but sadly was practically forced to play him due to Chung's ridiculousness etc. He then came into camp and was reportedly pretty far down on the depth chart, not to mention the fact that Belichick addressed the position again with a 3rd round pick and a bigger name free agent. When you take that all into consideration, it's not terribly surprising that Wilson is so far down on the depth chart.

Reiss seems to think that he is more important to our special teams than most give him credit for, and while that may be true the fact remains that he should actually be seeing on field reps in real defensive situations if chosen that highly. At this point it appears that once again not only have we failed in the 2nd/3rd round again, but have failed yet again in the secondary.

 

[andrewgarrr]

A bit unrelated but...

This was such an inopportune year for all the defensive injuries... This team had as much promise to win the SB as any of post '07 years. (2008 obviously had the best potential, 11-5 with MFC...)

 

[Fencer]

he certainly has had his fair share of misses especially in rounds 2-4 over the years.

Unless I'm forgetting somebody, BB's last 12 second round picks -- which it took him only 5 drafts to rack up -- are:

• Collins Too early to judge, but not a screaming success so far.
• Dobson Too early to judge, but looking decent so far.
• Wilson Bust.
• Dowling Injury bust.
• Vereen Looking good; durability is a concern.
• Gronkowski One of the great 2nd round picks in NFL history, except insofar as durability is a concern.
• Cunningham Bust.
• Spikes OK.
• Chung Bust, albeit less of one than some of the other guys.
• Butler Bust, but ditto.
• Vollmer Very successful pick.
• Brace Bust.

If we leave Dobson and Collins out of it, we get 2 big wins (Gronk, Seabass), 2 other successes (Vereen, Spikes), and 6 busts.

That said, in 2004-8 the Pats made only 3 second-round picks I can recall, and they were all busts -- Chad Jackson, Wheatley, and the late lamented Marquise Hill. So now we're talking 2 big wins and 2 more good picks out of 13. If we go even further back, we get Light, Branch, and Eugene Wilson, who should serve to comfortably offset busts Johnson and Klemm.

If Gronk lasts long enough to star in some postseasons and make it to Canton, that's a decent second-round track record. Otherwise, it's a bit disappointing.

 

[supafly]

Jamie Collins is following the same pattern. High draft pick to add depth and special teams contributions.

Somebody explain BB that you do that from the 5th round on.

Several thoughts come to mind:

1. Most who don't like the Collins pick feel that way because they felt that there were bigger needs at other positions, not because they don't care for Collins himself

2. The position of LB in the Bill Belichick defense is not exactly easy to pick up. It obviously isn't on par with the positions of WR or QB, but there are many different nuances and responsibilities that one must get down pat before he feels comfortable enough to send you out on the field for lots of reps. My guess is that Belichick would like to put Collins on the field more later on in the game, where he could've received some live game reps; but that we just haven't had that opportunity of having a lead enough to do so to this point

3. We've seen plenty of higher round picks in the Belichick era use their first year as kind of a feeler to try and learn the system and their responsibilities. Again, it's always nice to have the luxury of garbage time with a lead, but that hasn't been the case this season

4. It's all about the depth in front of him too, and to date we have better talent and experience in our LB's who are playing in front of Collins. This may obviously change if/when Spikes leaves and things switch up, where Collins would likely be the strong side LB, with Hightower in the middle, and Mayo at weak side. This may have been more of a pick for the future

 

[supafly]

This team had as much promise to win the SB as any of post '07 years. (2008 obviously had the best potential, 11-5 with MFC...)

You're seeing a mediocre 11-5 team vs a pathetic schedule in a year where we didn't even make the playoffs as "our best potential--post 2007?"

It isn't the 14-2 season of 2010, or the next year in 2011 where we were 00:59 seconds away from actually winning the Super Bowl? It isn't in 2012 where we made it back to the AFCCG at home and were one game away from returning to the SB in back to back years?

2008 you say...interesting. I think I will have to disagree with you in this case.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

This may have been more of a pick for the future

à la Solder?

 

[supafly]

Unless I'm forgetting somebody, BB's last 12 second round picks -- which it took him only 5 drafts to rack up -- are:

• Collins Too early to judge, but not a screaming success so far.
• Dobson Too early to judge, but looking decent so far.
• Wilson Bust.
• Dowling Injury bust.
• Vereen Looking good; durability is a concern.
• Gronkowski One of the great 2nd round picks in NFL history, except insofar as durability is a concern.
• Cunningham Bust.
• Spikes OK.
• Chung Bust, albeit less of one than some of the other guys.
• Butler Bust, but ditto.
• Vollmer Very successful pick.
• Brace Bust.

If we leave Dobson and Collins out of it, we get 2 big wins (Gronk, Seabass), 2 other successes (Vereen, Spikes), and 6 busts.

That said, in 2004-8 the Pats made only 3 second-round picks I can recall, and they were all busts -- Chad Jackson, Wheatley, and the late lamented Marquise Hill. So now we're talking 2 big wins and 2 more good picks out of 13. If we go even further back, we get Light, Branch, and Eugene Wilson, who should serve to comfortably offset busts Johnson and Klemm.

If Gronk lasts long enough to star in some postseasons and make it to Canton, that's a decent second-round track record. Otherwise, it's a bit disappointing.

It's terribly, terribly disappointing BUT...let me ask you this question:

Is there any possibility that Belichick has tried to take advantage of heightened talent in the second round by racking up lots of draft picks through collection and trading down/back?

In other words, does he see this round as a round with potential to "steal" an extra pick and take some added risks gambling with house money?

One would think that the more lottery tickets that you buy, the higher your chance of winning would be. Is that Belichick's overall thought here in a round that doesn't necessarily have the hype and pressure that the first round brings? Is it possible that he has realized that some of these picks wouldn't work out, but felt it necessary and prudent to take a shot anyway?

Does any of this even make sense? Or am I overthinking this? I'm just wondering if the 2nd round isn't actually the perfect round to try and take more shots due to the round having very good talent available + many years of "free" picks. Of course this wouldn't explain the fact that we've had more picks fail than expected, but I'm wondering if he honestly doesn't assume that a certain percentage of these picks are going to fail? After all, there's really no way to tell until they come here in the system.

I think the first round picks have tended to be a bit more conservative, which helps to decrease the "boom or bust" factor that we often see with these 2nd round selections.

 

[supafly]

à la Solder?

I just have a hard time imagining Belichick honestly expecting Collins to overtake any of Mayo, Hightower, Spikes, or even Fletcher (arguably) this particular year. If anything, it would seem that he was a special teams pick with potential to become a starter for the LB corps.

Then again, maybe he just felt that he was a nice raw project to try and build something into--but I tend to doubt it at that specific round selection; and even moreso because it was our very first pick.

There's always the "who the hell knows what Belichick is EVER thinking" theory too, which may be the closest to the truth.

 

[jmt57]

While it is true that Tavon Wilson has not lived up to his draft status, let's not delude ourselves with the implication that he is the only NFL player drafted that highly to do so.

But who's made any such implication? It seems to me that people have evaluated him based upon his own failings. Some may have offered other options that were available (Randle would have been a better 'need' pick, or they could have double dipped at LB, for example), but that's not the same thing.

:ugh:

Right, nobody on this forum ever makes the implication that any and every early draft pick should be a stellar success, and the Patriots under Bill Belichick are the only team that doesn't hit on every selection made in the first few rounds.





I was neither defending Wilson's performance, nor the decision to draft him; in fact, I was not evaluating his play at all. My comment was solely in regards to those that for whatever reason seem to expect every draft selection made by the Patriots to turn out perfectly, and that nobody drafted later can go on to have a better NFL career.

 

[Fencer]

It's terribly, terribly disappointing BUT...let me ask you this question:

Is there any possibility that Belichick has tried to take advantage of heightened talent in the second round by racking up lots of draft picks through collection and trading down/back?

In other words, does he see this round as a round with potential to "steal" an extra pick and take some added risks gambling with house money?

One would think that the more lottery tickets that you buy, the higher your chance of winning would be. Is that Belichick's overall thought here in a round that doesn't necessarily have the hype and pressure that the first round brings? Is it possible that he has realized that some of these picks wouldn't work out, but felt it necessary and prudent to take a shot anyway?

Does any of this even make sense? Or am I overthinking this? I'm just wondering if the 2nd round isn't actually the perfect round to try and take more shots due to the round having very good talent available + many years of "free" picks. Of course this wouldn't explain the fact that we've had more picks fail than expected, but I'm wondering if he honestly doesn't assume that a certain percentage of these picks are going to fail? After all, there's really no way to tell until they come here in the system.

I think the first round picks have tended to be a bit more conservative, which helps to decrease the "boom or bust" factor that we often see with these 2nd round selections.

At best, you garbled that, as I gather you sensed.

If your point is that you think BB tends to go boom-or-bust with 2nd-round picks, I'm not going to argue. I'd further say that he seems to believe all picks are risky, so one might as well get more of them to take a chance on, which sounds a little different from the cause-effect chain you were describing.

 

[Deus Irae]

:ugh:

Right, nobody on this forum ever makes the implication that any and every early draft pick should be a stellar success, and the Patriots under Bill Belichick are the only team that doesn't hit on every selection made in the first few rounds.

My memory on the subject may be faulty, but I don't recall seeing a single post making such an implication. I see you inferring such (your post here makes that point), but that's not the same thing. I don't know of anyone, even the most ridiculously over-the-top CLs, who won't acknowledge that all teams miss in the draft.

Wilson was a controversial pick from the beginning and many questioned it. It wasn't because people were claiming that BB misses and every other team always hits. It was because Wilson was considered a reach being taken that high, and he was looked at as a suspect prospect at a position that was considered weak in that particular draft. And it certainly seems, so far, as if those who had a problem with the pick were right to do so.

 

[Tasco]

Don't wanto to defend the Wilson pick, would be nice to hear from the experts how Ebner fared in the snaps he was on the field. Couldn't his overtaking be caused by a better development in the last year? I'd gladly take it if Ebner will perform like a 2nd rounder and Wilson like a 6th rounder.

 

[cstjohn17]

I don't think Wilson is a disappointment he was just over drafted by the Patriots. If he was drafted where he graded out (Priority FA) then he would be right where he should be (at the bottom of the depth chart).

 

[Brady6]

It's terribly, terribly disappointing BUT...let me ask you this question:

Is there any possibility that Belichick has tried to take advantage of heightened talent in the second round by racking up lots of draft picks through collection and trading down/back?

In other words, does he see this round as a round with potential to "steal" an extra pick and take some added risks gambling with house money?

One would think that the more lottery tickets that you buy, the higher your chance of winning would be. Is that Belichick's overall thought here in a round that doesn't necessarily have the hype and pressure that the first round brings? Is it possible that he has realized that some of these picks wouldn't work out, but felt it necessary and prudent to take a shot anyway?

Does any of this even make sense? Or am I overthinking this? I'm just wondering if the 2nd round isn't actually the perfect round to try and take more shots due to the round having very good talent available + many years of "free" picks. Of course this wouldn't explain the fact that we've had more picks fail than expected, but I'm wondering if he honestly doesn't assume that a certain percentage of these picks are going to fail? After all, there's really no way to tell until they come here in the system.

I think the first round picks have tended to be a bit more conservative, which helps to decrease the "boom or bust" factor that we often see with these 2nd round selections.

Are they actually boom or bust however? If you look at the most successful picks of the second and third rounds you have:

• Rob Gronkowski: the best tight end in the NFL when healthy but most tight ends are drafted in the second round or later historically, at the time Gronkowski was drafted 42nd overall only 6 tight ends had been drafted higher in the previous decade by a team. So hitting on a tight end in the second round is it really a boom?
• Sebastian Vollmer: one of the better right tackles in the NFL and although many considered him a reach because he was an unknown smaller school player is it really a boom to find an upper echelon right tackle in the second round of a draft?
• Brandon Spikes: a very good run stopping middle linebacker, once again though middle linebacker is generally the type of position you see taken in the second and third rounds of the draft.
• Shane Vereen: we’ve all been happy with Vereen but in hindsight has he really given us that much for a second round running back? When you look at players like Ryan Rice (second), Maurice Jones-Drew (second, LeSean McCoy (second), Jamaal Charles (third), Frank Gore (third), Alfred Morris (sixth) and Arian Foster (UDFA) can you really see a boom in a player like Vereen.

In my opinion if he attempting to grab as many lottery tickets as possible and receive these boom players then he isn’t succeeding at all, he is hitting on players and positions that are generally taken in the second round of the NFL draft.

Brady, Dennard and (before he made a BOOM) Hernandez were boom picks none of the players taken in the second may me say - oh wow I cannot believe he found that tight end or right tackle in the second round. Honestly so much of our team is built on UDFA that is where Belichick truly shines, if he could ever find a way to draft adequately in the second and third he would have a pro bowl roster.

 

[Brady6]

à la Solder?

Solder was not a future pick he spent one season as the third tackle and then became a full starter in season two.

 

[Brady6]

I don't think Wilson is a disappointment he was just over drafted by the Patriots. If he was drafted where he graded out (Priority FA) then he would be right where he should be (at the bottom of the depth chart).

That is why he is a disappointment however is cause he was taken in second round and is doing the job of a late rounder or UDFA.

 

[ausbacker]

As I've explained on numerous occasions, you're confusing my opinion of the use of the pick with my opinion of the player. Kindly either figure out the difference or stop commenting on Collins in response to my posts.

No, I'm not confusing anything. If someone disagrees with your opinion and your rationale you tell them their opinion is lousy. You're a hypocrite and don't like being called for it. You've had it explained to you by multiple people that there have been more than one pressing need for the team, which ironically, was addressed later in the draft.

You and I both wanted Swearinger. We got Harmon. I'm fine with that. The need was addressed.

 

[Deus Irae]

No, I'm not confusing anything. If someone disagrees with your opinion and your rationale you tell them their opinion is lousy. You're a hypocrite and don't like being called for it. You've had it explained to you by multiple people that there have been more than one pressing need for the team, which ironically, was addressed later in the draft.

You and I both wanted Swearinger. We got Harmon. I'm fine with that. The need was addressed.

So you've got nothing, since my point has been about the pick and not the player and that doesn't require waiting to see how the player develops, and you are just posting ad hominem nonsense while pretending to be doing something other than trolling.

Got it. :thumb:

 

[ausbacker]

So you've got nothing, since my point has been about the pick and not the player and that doesn't require waiting to see how the player develops, and you are just posting ad hominem nonsense while pretending to be doing something other than trolling.

Got it. :thumb:

No, I've got plenty. You had it pointed out to you that the pick and the player were fine. Your need to verify your position and save face in light of alternative opinion is simply mind boggling. Further to that point, I made a broad statement that it is better to evaluate the pick/player at the conclusion of their rookie contract rather than making a broad sweeping statement like worst pick of the BB era 10 games in.