I've gone through and identified mismatch players, now to arrange them.
#24: These players have to be as sure a thing as you can find. Adam Carriker, Justin Harrell, Marshawn Lynch, Brian Leonard, Joe Staley, and Ryan Kalil. You know exactly what you're getting, no doubts here. The fun comes in making the decision if more than one is left when it comes your turn.
#28: If you lock in a sure thing earlier, you can gamble a bit here on a player who has a wart. Ray McDonald, Lamarr Woodley, Paul Solaia, Greg Olsen, Stewart Bradley, Chris Houston, Jonathan Wade, Josh Wilson, Marcus McCauley, A.J. Davis, Reggie Nelson, Brandon Meriweather, Anthony Gonzalez, Jason Hill, Tony Ugoh, Leroy Harris, Samson Satele.
These five players are my problem children. Darrell Revis, Aaron Ross, Michael Griffin, Robert Meachem, Dwayne Bowe. My problem is how to classify them. WRs are boom or bust types, these two seem to be boomers, but do you play it cautious and take them with your second pick? Revis and Ross are gamblers who create mismatches by being better receivers. Is that a sure thing? Griffin is a sure thing, but the draft is FS deep and so is my roster (Wilson, Hawkins, Sanders, Gay, Spann, Andrews, Scott), decisions aaaggghhh!
Ranking is based on versatility and ceiling.
#24: Carriker, Staley, Lynch, Leonard, Kalil, Harrill, Griffin.
Ranking is based on expectations of outcome since these are transition or question mark players. For example: Woodley has the highest floor with a good ceiling as an OLB; Solaia has a very high ceiling, but the lowest floor.
#28: Woodley, Ugoh, Harris, McDonald, Meachem, Bowe, Revis, Hill, Wilson, Bradley (@OLB), Ross, Gonzalez, Wade, Satele, Davis, Nelson (@CB), Olsen, Solaia.
These are the big question marks, Chris Houston, Marcus McCauley, Brandon Meriweather. Meriweather only because I cannot adequately assess his character concerns - he'd be listed at #28 as a CB otherwise. Houston because he had two strikes, run support and stone hands. McCauley because of his timid Senior year. They are gone.
Draft Strategy: :woohoo: Now the fun starts! At 24, Carriker and Lynch should be gone, and Staley may too. Is Leonard an upgrade over Morris/Faulk? Is Kalil over Koppen/Hochstein, Harrell over Green/Wright, and Griffin over the full roster? Can I get similar "sure things" later, such as Gattis or Tony Hunt? Here is where a trade out may occur, attempting to get better positioned for later value further down the board, or pushing picks into 2008.
At 28 I will make a pick (unless the trade bait is too juicy). Is Woodley a value behind Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, and Woods? A better value then Ugoh who could be another Mankins at Guard or a dominating LT in time? Do I need another WR? What does that do to my roster? The truly safe picks are Woodley, Ugoh, Harris, and McDonald, they have small warts. The most upside is at WR & CB a bigger gamble, but Meachem or Bowe surviving this far are going to be the 6th WR or Revis the nickelback. The next tier behind them may still survive to a later pick if I trade out of #24.
Disclaimer: My mismatch theory came of prolonged exposure to Patsfans.com members and inadequate medicinals. Those of you have been bored enough to read my posts might note that players I never had an interest in are on this board. I'd like to think that shows some integrity in the process, but more than likely it means I've done it all wrong. Again, this is a theory and attempts to dispute it's elements are welcome.