Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage

[sebman2112]

Sure and their a fine crop of lads, over half are on me own boards they are. Is it now that you're thinking we want one of these boyos in round one?

I think Justin Blalock is an option at 28, and in later rounds I like Samson Satele, Herbert Taylor, Mike Otto, and Chris Denman.

Now if NE trades Asante Samuel for a mid-first. I would put Levi Brown down as an option.

What's your thinking?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I think Justin Blalock is an option at 28, and in later rounds I like Samson Satele, Herbert Taylor, Mike Otto, and Chris Denman.

Now if NE trades Asante Samuel for a mid-first. I would put Levi Brown down as an option.

What's your thinking?

I think the Pats receiving a higher 1st round pick for Samuel would trigger some really interesting moves. Revis was the highest rated CB who survived my mismatch exercise, though Wilson and Wade are worth taking too.

My first impulse would be to lock in Carriker, I just firmly believe he's the best fit below the top ten for New England, and probably below the top five. I'd want to manuever to take Josh Wilson if Revis did not fall to #24, Wilson is the next best fit for the Pats who could earn starting reps behind Scott. I would also be making an effort to follow the old Belichick program of taking pairs of DBs in each draft to work together as they learn the system.

Brown is not a fit now that zone blocking appears to be where the offense is headed.

 

[sebman2112]

I think the Pats receiving a higher 1st round pick for Samuel would trigger some really interesting moves. Revis was the highest rated CB who survived my mismatch exercise, though Wilson and Wade are worth taking too.

My first impulse would be to lock in Carriker, I just firmly believe he's the best fit below the top ten for New England, and probably below the top five. I'd want to manuever to take Josh Wilson if Revis did not fall to #24, Wilson is the next best fit for the Pats who could earn starting reps behind Scott. I would also be making an effort to follow the old Belichick program of taking pairs of DBs in each draft to work together as they learn the system.

Brown is not a fit now that zone blocking appears to be where the offense is headed.

Yea, I was thinking about that, and I did notice people talking about Levi lacking that killer instinct, and I really like my O-Linemen having that nasty streak/killer instinct. The part about taking two DB's to work together is something I've brought up on here and ESPN before. The Patriots have done this multiple times, and at multiple positions.

 

[mgteich]

I think that you would be more likely to draft a free safety if you realize that Sanders isn't one, that Scott has no future at free safety, and that we don't have any signed for 2008. Your analysis puts Griffin higher on my board than before and helps understand that there are several CB's available in the late first or early second. Of course, you and I would need to pick a corner at 24, since we would be unlikely to pass on Leonard at 28, and then we wouldn't get the badly needed corner. In the end, Griffin and Leonard would be difference makers for the patriots. And yes Griffin could be a free safety, who also plays corner to backup and likely replace Wilson, who has similar characteristics.

I've gone through and identified mismatch players, now to arrange them.

#24: These players have to be as sure a thing as you can find. Adam Carriker, Justin Harrell, Marshawn Lynch, Brian Leonard, Joe Staley, and Ryan Kalil. You know exactly what you're getting, no doubts here. The fun comes in making the decision if more than one is left when it comes your turn.

#28: If you lock in a sure thing earlier, you can gamble a bit here on a player who has a wart. Ray McDonald, Lamarr Woodley, Paul Solaia, Greg Olsen, Stewart Bradley, Chris Houston, Jonathan Wade, Josh Wilson, Marcus McCauley, A.J. Davis, Reggie Nelson, Brandon Meriweather, Anthony Gonzalez, Jason Hill, Tony Ugoh, Leroy Harris, Samson Satele.

These five players are my problem children. Darrell Revis, Aaron Ross, Michael Griffin, Robert Meachem, Dwayne Bowe. My problem is how to classify them. WRs are boom or bust types, these two seem to be boomers, but do you play it cautious and take them with your second pick? Revis and Ross are gamblers who create mismatches by being better receivers. Is that a sure thing? Griffin is a sure thing, but the draft is FS deep and so is my roster (Wilson, Hawkins, Sanders, Gay, Spann, Andrews, Scott), decisions aaaggghhh!

Ranking is based on versatility and ceiling.
#24: Carriker, Staley, Lynch, Leonard, Kalil, Harrill, Griffin.

Ranking is based on expectations of outcome since these are transition or question mark players. For example: Woodley has the highest floor with a good ceiling as an OLB; Solaia has a very high ceiling, but the lowest floor.
#28: Woodley, Ugoh, Harris, McDonald, Meachem, Bowe, Revis, Hill, Wilson, Bradley (@OLB), Ross, Gonzalez, Wade, Satele, Davis, Nelson (@CB), Olsen, Solaia.

These are the big question marks, Chris Houston, Marcus McCauley, Brandon Meriweather. Meriweather only because I cannot adequately assess his character concerns - he'd be listed at #28 as a CB otherwise. Houston because he had two strikes, run support and stone hands. McCauley because of his timid Senior year. They are gone.

Draft Strategy: :woohoo: Now the fun starts! At 24, Carriker and Lynch should be gone, and Staley may too. Is Leonard an upgrade over Morris/Faulk? Is Kalil over Koppen/Hochstein, Harrell over Green/Wright, and Griffin over the full roster? Can I get similar "sure things" later, such as Gattis or Tony Hunt? Here is where a trade out may occur, attempting to get better positioned for later value further down the board, or pushing picks into 2008.

At 28 I will make a pick (unless the trade bait is too juicy). Is Woodley a value behind Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, and Woods? A better value then Ugoh who could be another Mankins at Guard or a dominating LT in time? Do I need another WR? What does that do to my roster? The truly safe picks are Woodley, Ugoh, Harris, and McDonald, they have small warts. The most upside is at WR & CB a bigger gamble, but Meachem or Bowe surviving this far are going to be the 6th WR or Revis the nickelback. The next tier behind them may still survive to a later pick if I trade out of #24.

Disclaimer: My mismatch theory came of prolonged exposure to Patsfans.com members and inadequate medicinals. Those of you have been bored enough to read my posts might note that players I never had an interest in are on this board. I'd like to think that shows some integrity in the process, but more than likely it means I've done it all wrong. Again, this is a theory and attempts to dispute it's elements are welcome.

 

[sebman2112]

I think that you would be more likely to draft a free safety if you realize that Sanders isn't one, that Scott has no future at free safety, and that we don't have any signed for 2008. Your analysis puts Griffin higher on my board than before and helps understand that there are several CB's available in the late first or early second. Of course, you and I would need to pick a corner at 24, since we would be unlikely to pass on Leonard at 28.

Plus, Hawkins sucked in the playoffs, and looks to be loosing a step. I had this arguement with people on here before, but I'd like NE to draft one FS and one SS in this draft. In my opinion they have a need at both positions, epecially next year.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I think that you would be more likely to draft a free safety if you realize that Sanders isn't one, that Scott has no future at free safety, and that we don't have any signed for 2008. Your analysis puts Griffin higher on my board than before and helps understand that there are several CB's available in the late first or early second. Of course, you and I would need to pick a corner at 24, since we would be unlikely to pass on Leonard at 28, and then we wouldn't get the badly needed corner. In the end, Griffin and Leonard would be difference makers for the patriots. And yes Griffin could be a free safety, who also plays corner to backup and likely replace Wilson, who has similar characteristics.

I'm even less likely to after starting the S/STs thread. The Pats have a wealth of Safeties and tweeners on the roster.

As for Sanders not being a FS, his measurables aren't that far from it: Dates: 03/04/2005
Height: 5106
Weight: 214
40 Yrd Dash: 4.65
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 22
Vertical Jump: 36
Broad Jump: 9'4"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.02
3-Cone Drill: 7.12

Still, I'd be willing to pass on Griffin for a big fast SS who can challenge Sanders, especially with the horde currently on the roster.

 

[patpatriot]

Matt Spaeth - slow TE, okay blocker, dime a dozen.

But experienced working in the zone-blocking system especially withour tailback

Walter Thomas - small school kid, how will he take to hard training/hard coaching, is there more upstairs?

No opinion


Chris Davis - underutilized, okay speed, quicker than fast, small, NFL wantum big Seminoles receiver, not little smurf.

Likum Troy Brown and Deon Branch plenty

Jay Moore - Blue collar, not a speedy, quick first step edge rusher, only a player a 3-4 team could love.

hhhmmmm....can you say Mike Vrabel?

"I also think if you find an ILB with really good coverage skills it could creat mismatch problems at the LOS, because it could allow your other LB's to focus more on pass rushing, and run support."

Zack DeOssie?

Screw it...let's just take Merriweather and Woodley and go home. They have the mismatch potential you like, will probably be there, and have the best chance of contributing this year.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Screw it...let's just take Merriweather and Woodley and go home. They have the mismatch potential you like, will probably be there, and have the best chance of contributing this year.

I'm interested in each of the players you commented on, they just have warts, real or imagined which has draftniks forecasting second day value. If the Pats could get one or more on the second day it would be a good deal.

 

[patpatriot]

I'm interested in each of the players you commented on, they just have warts, real or imagined which has draftniks forecasting second day value. If the Pats could get one or more on the second day it would be a good deal.

I think you mean second round Box.

 

[mgteich]

I have no question that Sanders has the measurables to be a free safety. However, he was tried at free safety thisyear is several games this year. Perhaps it was a fluke, but he was aweful. Also, he was a nickel for several games last year.

Would you really rely on our ZERO free safeties signed for 2008 in order to give Sanders competition for Harrison's SS spot?

I'm even less likely to after starting the S/STs thread. The Pats have a wealth of Safeties and tweeners on the roster.

As for Sanders not being a FS, his measurables aren't that far from it: Dates: 03/04/2005
Height: 5106
Weight: 214
40 Yrd Dash: 4.65
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 22
Vertical Jump: 36
Broad Jump: 9'4"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.02
3-Cone Drill: 7.12

Still, I'd be willing to pass on Griffin for a big fast SS who can challenge Sanders, especially with the horde currently on the roster.

 

[Mainefan]

Talk about under-promising and over-delivering--Box that was wonderful reading. You just blew me away. And the others in this discussion are excellent as well, especially Sebman, Dry Heat and RookBoston.

I would imagine--and hope--that this is the kind of discussion that goes on at the Patriots' front office. It is extraordinarily sophisticated. I thank you for all of the posters like myself, who come here to learn. You're increasing my enjoyment of the game.

 

[patchick]

Thanks for all the food for thought, Box. It definitely puts a different spin on draft picks to consider them as strategic matchup possibilities rather than just slot-fillers. But can I suggest a corollary that accounts for the Mankins pick, which you've had to dance around a bit?

Any actual hole in the lineup trumps MMP.

I've argued in the past that despite public perception, the Pats do draft for need...they just try their darnedest not to have any true needs. If we think of it as a Maslovian hierarchy, you have to account for your basic necessities before aspiring to higher things. So the food-and-water level of football need is a acceptable starter at every position. In 2005 the LG position lacked that; in 2007, Samuel willing, every starting slot is accounted for. (The tricky thing is how to weigh starting holes projected for 2008 vs. matchup possibilities across the field.)

 

[cstjohn17]

I agree with the premise to some extent but think the theory of mismatches stops after round 2. Any truly exceptional physical talent is off the board within the first 50 picks usually top 15 after that everyone is pretty much the same and it comes down to coaching and execution. I would also argue that this is the case for the Patriots, Seymour at 6 is the only player to demonstrate a clear mismatch. Warren at 13 and Wilfork at 21 are getting there but were also taken very high. Watson has potential but he is little more than a fast, inconsistent poor blocker at this stage of his career.

You are right, they like players in the trenches because they have the potential to influence every play but there are also more spots on a roster for OLine and DLine. More spots means you need to draft more players.

I don't agree with RBs being mismatches unless they are truly exceptional, they are mostly a dime a dozen. Outside of Maroney none of these players are even adequate backups, hardly something you have to scheme around:
- J.R. Redmond, Cedric Cobbs, Spencer Nead, Antwoine Womack, Patrick Pass

All just nitpicks, your breakdown of players available at 24 and 28 and their pluses and minuses are right on target. Personally I hope they try for 2 doubles (with low bust factor) rather than try to hit a homerun. Realistically the 3 day 1 picks are the only ones with a history of becoming starters.

Double into the gap (chance for triple or more)
- Carriker, Lynch,

Solid Doubles
Griffin, Willis, Harrill, Blalock, Grubbs, Merriweather, Nelson, Meachem

Potential doubles
Houston, Revis, Beason

Wildcards
Staley

 

[sebman2112]

Thanks for all the food for thought, Box. It definitely puts a different spin on draft picks to consider them as strategic matchup possibilities rather than just slot-fillers. But can I suggest a corollary that accounts for the Mankins pick, which you've had to dance around a bit?

Any actual hole in the lineup trumps MMP.

I've argued in the past that despite public perception, the Pats do draft for need...they just try their darnedest not to have any true needs. If we think of it as a Maslovian hierarchy, you have to account for your basic necessities before aspiring to higher things. So the food-and-water level of football need is a acceptable starter at every position. In 2005 the LG position lacked that; in 2007, Samuel willing, every starting slot is accounted for. (The tricky thing is how to weigh starting holes projected for 2008 vs. matchup possibilities across the field.)

Yup, and I think they mostly draft for rotational starters/backups year one, who become full time starters in year two. That's why drafting two Safeties now becomes an even better option.

I'd rather draft two Safeties and have them develop in the system for one year, then when Wilson leaves and Rodney likely retires they'll already have a year in the system before having to take over. I don't like the idea of waiting until '08 for Safeties because some happen to think the '07 roster already has a lot of Safeties (most of which arent starting quality). This would mean throwing those '08 draftee's into the fire without any experience.

 

[cstjohn17]

I don't like the idea of waiting until '08 for Safeties because some happen to think the '07 roster already has a lot of Safeties (most of which arent starting quality). This would mean throwing those '08 draftee's into the fire without any experience.

I disagree with this, while some planning is necessary for 2008 we shouldn't forget about 2007. This is not the Celtics, this team is in the hunt this year and the 2007 draft should focus on the 2007 season. If the best way to improve the 07 team is to take two safeties then so be it. IMO filling roster holes at ILB and CB are higher needs than worrying about next year.

 

[patfanken]

WOW what a read. Box, you are the man and I am infinitely more aware than I was when I started this thread. Great discourse by everyone. It was intriguing. Here's my 2 cents

I thing one factor you left out of your theory is the human element. In other words how hard is it to find a person with the right traits you are looking for in creating those mismatches. I have always thought that except for QB, the DL, TE, and CB are the toughest to find those rare qualities you need to find the "special" player to get your mismatches.

There just aren't a lot of human beings who are 6'5 300+ lbs, and who have the quickness, toughness, and athletic awareness to play a 2 gap DE position on a 3-4. SO when you get a chance to grap one you CANNOT pass it up. That would explain the shot we took at Marquis Hill in 2004. It might very well wind up as a miss, but given his raw numbers, you just couldn't pass him up.

The same goes for the NT position - Here you are looking for the 320+ man who has the will to be the point of attack in the running game. A man who has the toughness and skill to fend off continual double teams, AND have the athleticism to defeat them. It is easier for fill this position with the correct body type, but that body type combined with the athleticism to be an impact player is exceedly rare. Finding the impact NT is the major reason more teams don't use the 3-4. Even though Mike Wright did a nice job filling in for Vince. Everyone should be aware that his techniques and the way the Pats played him was different from the way Wilfork plays.

TE- the great TE is also a rarity. This draft shows why. I think more people will appreciate Daniel Graham more now that he is gone. He not only could make the great athletic catch down field, he was an impact blocker. None of the TE's available in this draft are even close to Grahams overall ability. Guys who can run like Ben Watson and block like Graham are extrodinarily rare. That is what BB never misses a chance to draft one who MIGHT fill that bill. Especially since TE is such a key position in the Patriots offensive system.

CB - Now there are a lot of athletes who have the size and speed to be a CB or a WR. But what makes a CB one of the rarest finds, while a WR is perhaps the easiest to find is the mental aspect of the 2 positions. In looking for a CB, you not only have to have the raw athletic measurables, you have to have the rare abilities to be tough enough to take on 230lb RBs, smart enough to react to various stimuli and have the quicks to react and recover. PLUS you have to have the confidence and mental toughness to recover from the MANY times the offense will win the battle. Don't forget that roughly 6 out of 10 times an offense goes back to pass, THEY WILL complete it.

So while match ups and their creation are important, I think the fact that those 3 position require talents that are so rare you cannot pass up a chance to get that "special" athlete if he becomes available. It is the reason that a guy like Carecker(sp) would not be passed up if he fell to the Pats (which I doubt) even though we are pretty set at the position. Its also the reason why BB won't draft an OLB prospect early, instead look to develop what he needs there with a College DE

BTW- IF we go just by need, I think our first need is to find a FS who can cover. It will make Rodney more effective as a SS. I think we can find Rodney's replacement in the 3rd or 4th rounds (which is were he was found ironicly)

Also here is a question I have to ask as it pertains to D Hughes the CB from Cal. Here is a guy who has the techniques and product of the best CB in the draft, yet looks to drop to the 2nd or 3rd round because he ran a 4.6 40. The questin is: who would get to the ball quicker the CB who runs a 4.3 or the CB who runs a 4.6, but reacts a half second quicker?

Well I have to run. Thanks again for the great thread.

 

[sebman2112]

I disagree with this, while some planning is necessary for 2008 we shouldn't forget about 2007. This is not the Celtics, this team is in the hunt this year and the 2007 draft should focus on the 2007 season. If the best way to improve the 07 team is to take two safeties then so be it. IMO filling roster holes at ILB and CB are higher needs than worrying about next year.

With Rodney and Wilson's recent injury history and Hawkins late season slide, drafting two Safeties would likely help out this season, and would certainly help in '08.

Here's the other thing I've tried to point out to people who say "We should draft ILB's and CB's" why can't they draft players at all three positions? Is there some reason NE can't draft good Safeties, LB's, and good CB's? They have two first round pick, one third, one fourth, one fifth, four sixth, and one seventh.

Hell, NE could draft two LB's, two CB's, and two Safeties with just six of the ten picks being used. They would then have four picks remaining. There's no reason to think drafting two Safeties would keep them from being able to draft one or even two players at both CB and LB.

We have to remember this is a 7 round draft, and I'm not saying "pick two Safeties in the first" I'm saying pick two Safeties in the draft, but I'd like one coming in the first three rounds.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Thanks for all the food for thought, Box. It definitely puts a different spin on draft picks to consider them as strategic matchup possibilities rather than just slot-fillers. But can I suggest a corollary that accounts for the Mankins pick, which you've had to dance around a bit?

[/b]Any actual hole in the lineup trumps MMP.[/b]

I've argued in the past that despite public perception, the Pats do draft for need...they just try their darnedest not to have any true needs. If we think of it as a Maslovian hierarchy, you have to account for your basic necessities before aspiring to higher things. So the food-and-water level of football need is a acceptable starter at every position. In 2005 the LG position lacked that; in 2007, Samuel willing, every starting slot is accounted for. (The tricky thing is how to weigh starting holes projected for 2008 vs. matchup possibilities across the field.)

Russ Hochstein.

The corollary has merit, but the circumstances on the roster indicated there was an adequate fill-in. Mankins unquestionably brought more to the table, but he was a potential mismatch who upgraded, not filled the "hole." Thanks to Russ being such a trooper over the years I can say that with some confidence, I don't think it negates the corollary, but it raises doubt.

As for filling holes in 2007 or 2008, warm bodies (or food & water in your case - sorry my military experiences) fill holes, they are out there as the shadow roster demonstrates time and again. BB demonstrated it in 2000 & 2001. The team building comes into play when you move beyond marching in formation to shoot & scoot and eventually heavy armor and special operations. Every Pro team out there is an advanced organization with talented and well-trained troopers, the trick is to create the mismatch on the field which BB does through two methods, motion & drafting or team building.

I was taught three elements in the service:

- Strategic = organizational direction
- Operational = training, maintenance, logistics, personnel
- Tactical = field manuevering, the pointy end of the stick

BB obviously has a team building strategy which is where the economic and philosophical approach is pulled together into vision, for lack of a better word. That dictates operations, which is where he is now - finding mismatch players, which is primarily a first day focus as some have pointed out - please folks, remember my theory applies to the first round with carry over to the second, it's not a strategy for the entire draft. Again, the premise is winning the line of scrimmage in the run game by acquiring mismatch advantage players, especially at the three mismatch position groups (DL, TE, RB/FB).

Now one poster made the comment that mismatch players are no longer available in later rounds, regardless BB drafting RB/FB in 71% of his drafts, and taking DB, TE, & DL in 86% is more than a first round search. I would argue that the mismatch potential is available in every aspect of personnel acquisition - Russ Hochstein for example. We know that he can come into a game cold and not muff a snap as a center, as a guard he can start in the playoffs and be rock solid against a very highly rated D-line, this is a mismatch developed at the operational level through acquisition and training, and at the tactical level by leadership - it surely is not a natural mismatch created by excessive talent and not at a natural mismatch position. Mike Wright played NT differently from Vince as Ken pointed out, he still drew double-teams which is why that position magnifies mismatches - Mike was another Hochstein well prepared, well led, but creating more chaos because he was in a position that with a competent trooper, forces the O-line into combination blocks to neutralize it. I have to wonder if the creator of the 3-4 ever thought of the three DL as focal or choke points...

Hochstein and Wright were taken off the street, they had basic and some advanced training, they had field experience, what they needed was a sergeant who could give them the specialized training their aptitude made possible, and a team leader who pulled them together, and led them within the scope of the commander's battle plan. I like 5th round and UDFA boys, it's a lot easier than taking your 18 year old leaving his socks on the floor and preparing him for complex operations - and I know "I" can do that and have the scars to prove it.

Every coach/GM out there is trying to create a mismatch through manuever and grabbing special talents, BB seems to have refined it. Taking a Patrick Willis in round one is acquiring a special talent, but not creating a mismatch - at least in the run game. One OL and he's going to be done for the play in the majority of cases. I'll have to think this through further, but a Tampa-2 team takes a bunch of freelance players and on the front seven has them playing within a loose framework - DE charge the QB, DT shoot the gaps, LBs run to the action. BB's 3-4, as opposed to San Diego's Tampa-3 approach (think about it), is a very rigid, teamwork intensive approach and takes special individuals, with special talents, who can develop those talents to a high art. Wilfork is like a main battle tank, in 2005 he was unable to hold formation and kept exposing his flanking units (Beisel & Brown) to more direct fire then they should have seen, he eventually learned how to keep his interval and work in conjunction with Ty and Sey - a mismatch player, at a mismatch position, who defeated the mismatch by playing out of position, until he learned how and the Pats went back to the playoffs with a suddenly improved run defense.

I forget what some of the other challenges I needed to address were, so I'll post this to draw fire and grab some fresh ammo.

 

[cstjohn17]

Russ Hochstein.

Now one poster made the comment that mismatch players are no longer available in later rounds, regardless BB drafting RB/FB in 71% of his drafts, and taking DB, TE, & DL in 86% is more than a first round search. I would argue that the mismatch potential is available in every aspect of personnel acquisition - Russ Hochstein for example. We know that he can come into a game cold and not muff a snap as a center, as a guard he can start in the playoffs and be rock solid against a very highly rated D-line, this is a mismatch developed at the operational level through acquisition and training, and at the tactical level by leadership - it surely is not a natural mismatch created by excessive talent and not at a natural mismatch position. Mike Wright played NT differently from Vince as Ken pointed out, he still drew double-teams which is why that position magnifies mismatches - Mike was another Hochstein well prepared, well led, but creating more chaos because he was in a position that with a competent trooper, forces the O-line into combination blocks to neutralize it. I have to wonder if the creator of the 3-4 ever thought of the three DL as focal or choke points...

I like and respect your posts but listing Russ Hochstein as a mismatch? Why not just say that every player who has ever worn a Pats uniform has created a mismatch. Your argument of mismatch is sliding towards flexibility which is a requisite for any later day or UDFA. They have to show flexibility just to make the roster and the Patriots seem to find ways to make the flexibility payoff.

It may be semantics but my idea of a mismatch is the ability physically dominant, either by strength, speed or other gifts. When I think of mismatch I envision Seymour, Peppers, Freeney, TO in his prime, LT, Orlando Pace, etc. Players who had to be accounted for on every snap. When properly harnessed these players are difference makers. These players are very rare, maybe 2-3 players per roster. Less than 10 per draft. The rest of the roster is made up of pawns who basically cancel each other out. It may be true that our field soldiers are better trained and equipped than the other armies we battle but I don't think it ties directly to the positions that are drafted. The league is so athletic that even the 6th and 7th rounders are tremendous athletes but not much different from one team to the next. All things being equal the difference comes down to; tactics and execution as well as coaching and QB play, luckily we have two of the best.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I thing one factor you left out of your theory is the human element. In other words how hard is it to find a person with the right traits you are looking for in creating those mismatches. I have always thought that except for QB, the DL, TE, and CB are the toughest to find those rare qualities you need to find the "special" player to get your mismatches.
-----
So while match ups and their creation are important, I think the fact that those 3 position require talents that are so rare you cannot pass up a chance to get that "special" athlete if he becomes available. It is the reason that a guy like Carecker(sp) would not be passed up if he fell to the Pats (which I doubt) even though we are pretty set at the position. Its also the reason why BB won't draft an OLB prospect early, instead look to develop what he needs there with a College DE

Also here is a question I have to ask as it pertains to D Hughes the CB from Cal. Here is a guy who has the techniques and product of the best CB in the draft, yet looks to drop to the 2nd or 3rd round because he ran a 4.6 40. The questin is: who would get to the ball quicker the CB who runs a 4.3 or the CB who runs a 4.6, but reacts a half second quicker?

Well I have to run. Thanks again for the great thread.

Thanks for the kudos coach, it's your own fault for throwing a hypothetical to the ravening hordes on the main board!

Let me address Hughes first: I've been taking a beginner's course in coverages at Patriot's Planet and believe Hughes would be an attractive target for the Pats, but about where he is now slipping, and in conjunction with BB's old game plan of drafting or signing a UDFA second CB to pair together. I have Revis as my #1 CB using this particular theory, he like Hughes is a ballhawk. Josh Wilson is my #2 for his man and nickel talents. Jon Wade I like for the raw athleticism he's shown, coupled with reported steady improvement - I really like steady improvement. So Hughes might be the second CB when it all falls out, he might also be Geno's back-up as I'm not that enamored of drafting FS right now, unless they run 4.6 or better and weight 215-220.

If we wanted to stretch the concept of mismatch to address the Hughes' query, does Hughes, advanced read/react included, constitute a mismatch? I've proposed that the faster Revis and Ross create mismatches by baiting the QB and being better receivers. Gosselin did not have Hughes in their class, but for your question, how would you rank them if being "bullfighter" CBs is indeed a way to create a mismatch on the field?
-----
Okay, the human element and the precious metals and gems who are sought after in the draft.

BB accumulates resources for the business advantage it gives him, big boys, and quick boys, and fast boys oh my! It's how those resources are acquired that matters here - 6'5" 300+ gems are mined for, traded for, and found in second hand shops under layers of dust. The same with TE. But as a function of first round acquisition, CB is missing, and the only trade was a 3rd. The closest he's come was Eugene Wilson in the top of the second round.

His starting duo last season were third and fourth round draftees. The season before that he started with a second hand-first rounder and a fourth round player. The season before that he had an inherited first rounder and his second hand model. His patch and plug efforts have been second hand-firsts, flea market leftovers, and everything in between.

We can't say he hasn't tried to use operating funds on the position, but he's done it within a rigid economic structure - the anti-Snyder as it were. Within the context of my first round draft theory, CB is not a natural mismatch position because the theory calls for winning the run game at the line of scrimmage.

Last year BB went out and gave me a new datum point to find when this brain fever went into overdrive. He took a potential top flight RB in the first round, confounding all of us who had thinking he had been ignoring the position. Why the first round? Dillon was a second round pick. Numerous other stars have been found in all rounds. What made RB more important then OLB? CB? S? OT? ILB? The list encompasses just about every position. Folks proposed the Best Player Available theory and the BB is getting perverse amusement from our message board theory, fun reads but they take the mystery out of drafting, ho hum another spaghetti-o surprise supper dear, what's on TV.

The trouble with RB is it doesn't seem to fit the human element to the same degree as DL and TE. BB takes RBs in the seventh round and gets them talked about in books. He appears to have made do, which ain't normal for them folks at Gillette. Maroney can be a simple need/BPA juxtiposition, or he can be part of a riddle to kill time in the off-season.

Given my limitations and the data to date, it's the run game. It might even be simpler, it could just be the line of scrimmage. CB and S by themselves are 57% draft acquisitions, maybe if I broke down RB and FB seperately that 71% wouldn't look so significant and we'd be back to BPA. This might be the first chink in this construct. :bricks: But what Maroney and Mankins bring to the data are, run, run, run. Maroney has to work on receiving, Mankins as a pass blocker first choice should be outside, and Light inside. BB's bend but don't break is predicated on stopping the run and forcing teams to pass - throwing at those 3rd and 4th round picks.

BPA is so blase'! I think that for the time being RB/FB remains one mismatch group, the same way DE/NT are. Maroney was probably best player available alright, but within the context of a strategy and acquisition policy that said win the line of scrimmage + win the run game. Taking those big bodies early is not an exception then, he looks for them everywhere, like TE, like his running and full backs. This year might be the year he takes a CB and upset the run element - that just means I'll be counting on you to trigger a new brain fever to pass next off-season.