Defense

[Metaphors]

I agree that the potential is there for great things on defense and the schedule looks to be positive in this respect as well (add SEA, SF, STL, ARZ, DEN, KC and OAK and take away DAL, NYG, PHI, WAS, CIN, CLE, BAL).

My fear for this defense actually played out last night in the TEN/UCLA game. After dominating the Bruins for most of the game (first 11 UCLA drives = 6 punts, 4 interceptions and a 41 yd FG), the Vols didn't adjust to the UCLA quarterback Craft throwing almost all passes between the numbers. Dumpoffs, slants and skinny posts.

Craft went 13-29 with 4 ints in three quarters yet goes 12-14 in the 4th with TD drives of 80 and 70 yards. Not a single throw went more than 20 yards downfield and I can only recall one throw outside the hash marks. Dude was restricted to operating almost exclusively in a 20x20 square yard box and was still able to be successful against a top SEC team.

The best way to make a mediocre-to-bad QB look good is to have him throw in the middle of the field with no defenders in his line of vision between him and the receiver. Feeley, Boller and Goober Jr. (twice) pulled off the same trick against the Pats last year. Make them throw outside or down the field and they become wildly inaccurate and turnovers result (duck passes caught on helmets not included).

I am excited about Mayo, Crable, Wheatley, a healthy Seymour, an attacking AD and an improved Meriweather on the Pats defense this year...but if I see Croyle or Pennington or O'Sullivan or Edwards or Russell or Warner or Leinart stepping up and consistently completing 7 yard slant routes on 3rd and 6, I'm going to explode.

All the athleticism in the world doesn't help you if you are defending routes that the opposing QBs can't hit. And running really fast outside the tackles is good for your buns and thighs, but doesn't do much to disrupt a QB throwing a dumpoff pass to a wide open back or TE.

Make the opposing QBs (especially some of the duds on the schedule this year) earn their money. The offense will get back the occasional long TD that may result. The offense can't rewind the clock after a soul-sucking 10 minute or 15+ play drive.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

I hope they are better, because at times they could not stop AJ Feely or Kyle Boller.

plus they play a weaker schedule.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree that the potential is there for great things on defense and the schedule looks to be positive in this respect as well (add SEA, SF, STL, ARZ, DEN, KC and OAK and take away DAL, NYG, PHI, WAS, CIN, CLE, BAL).

My fear for this defense actually played out last night in the TEN/UCLA game. After dominating the Bruins for most of the game (first 11 UCLA drives = 6 punts, 4 interceptions and a 41 yd FG), the Vols didn't adjust to the UCLA quarterback Craft throwing almost all passes between the numbers. Dumpoffs, slants and skinny posts.

Craft went 13-29 with 4 ints in three quarters yet goes 12-14 in the 4th with TD drives of 80 and 70 yards. Not a single throw went more than 20 yards downfield and I can only recall one throw outside the hash marks. Dude was restricted to operating almost exclusively in a 20x20 square yard box and was still able to be successful against a top SEC team.

The best way to make a mediocre-to-bad QB look good is to have him throw in the middle of the field with no defenders in his line of vision between him and the receiver. Feeley, Boller and Goober Jr. (twice) pulled off the same trick against the Pats last year. Make them throw outside or down the field and they become wildly inaccurate and turnovers result (duck passes caught on helmets not included).

I am excited about Mayo, Crable, Wheatley, a healthy Seymour, an attacking AD and an improved Meriweather on the Pats defense this year...but if I see Croyle or Pennington or O'Sullivan or Edwards or Russell or Warner or Leinart stepping up and consistently completing 7 yard slant routes on 3rd and 6, I'm going to explode.

All the athleticism in the world doesn't help you if you are defending routes that the opposing QBs can't hit. And running really fast outside the tackles is good for your buns and thighs, but doesn't do much to disrupt a QB throwing a dumpoff pass to a wide open back or TE.

Make the opposing QBs (especially some of the duds on the schedule this year) earn their money. The offense will get back the occasional long TD that may result. The offense can't rewind the clock after a soul-sucking 10 minute or 15+ play drive.

We were #4 in the NFL defensively in 3rd down conversions (34% vs #1 being 31%)
This is one of the things that frustrates me. Every time a 3rd down is converted the sentiment is that we suck and cant cover. 34% is FANTASTIC. The one doesn't mean we suck when for every one converted we stop 2.

I think that the dump off passes are something that will continue to frustrate you because it is something that BBs system does not place a tremendously high priority on taking away.
A bette way to put it is that everything you take away leaves something else available, and BBs basic philosophy is that it is much more acceptable to take away the big play and make them execute A LOT of little plays to beat you, than to take away the little play and allow them to beat you with one play.
That doesnt mean we dont cover it, but it means we are more vulnerable to the 15 plays of 5 yards a pop drives than other teams that sell out to take that away at the expense of the big play. Its just the philosophy.
However on 3rd down, we play the distance, and the situation. And we are very successful at it.
Get used to our corners giving more cushion than most. Get used to our corners aligning outside more often than most, and us playing a style that is more susceptible to the slant type play. (Defending the slant is really a LB job, although on this board corners get brutalized for not jumping the slant when they are taught not to)

Basically, no matter what defensive style we play, there will be something that we are more susceptible to. Overall, I think the scheme and philosophy BB has, has proven to be very good. The problem is fans expect him to have a scheme that stops everything on every down, and such a scheme doesnt exist.
The most productive discussion would be one that recognizes that A) complaining about our 3rd down D is sill,y because it is excellent, and if you are complaining about 34% conversions, you are complaining for the sake of complaining B) understanding what the defensive concept is about and that there are things teams can do to us that are not the priority for us to stop. i.e. that if you really feel you can execute drives by throwing 5 yard passes all the way down the field, go right ahead because BB believes you will not execute that well enough consistently enough to beat him. I agree with him.

I know I am rambling here, but its just very frustrating to me that so many fans act as if magically you can call a defense that stops everything without sacrificing anything.

Did anyone ever consider that the idea that bad QBs have SOME success against us is exactly what BB wants? Because I do not remember the last time that any one of them every executed that consistently enough to beat us.
If we 'make Feeley look like an all-pro" by BEGGING HIM TO THROW and ultimately he can not do it consisistently enough to beat us, isnt that genious? Isnt that better than making him look bad, but losing because we gave him the chance to make big plays?

I would rather allow a bad QB to be 22-30 for 190 yards, and look like he is an all-pro, but have them stall at some point on most drives and allow 17 points than to have him go 8-30 for the same 190 yards with 3 50+ TD passes, have him look bad but lucky, and beat us.

If we set up a gameplan that a young QB has the opportunity to carve us up if he is consistent and good, and he is not capable of that, who cares how much he moves the ball before he fails to execute the play that kills the drive?

 

[Ring 6]

I hope they are better, because at times they could not stop AJ Feely or Kyle Boller.

plus they play a weaker schedule.

See my last post. I disagree that we 'couldn't stop those guys'. We gave them plays to make. They made more vs us than other teams, because that what we gave them, and ultimatley it was a good strategy because they beat themsleves because they werent good enough to carry their team to a win.
If I truly want to put the game in the hands of a bad QB, I have to play defense in a way that gives them the opportunity to have success if they make good throws, knowing all along they aren't good enough to beat me consistently making good throws.

To illustrate, if I am facing a team with bad QBs, and say 'put 9 men in the box' I am daring that QB to beat me, and he will do better against me than anyone else, but I got what I wanted by making him beat me, and he cant. He CAN make some plays, but he CANT beat me. If I play dime all day against that guy, I'm more likely to give him bad stats, but can lose because I committed to stop what they couldnt beat me with even if i didnt commit to stopping it

 

[spacecrime]

I hope I am wrong about ALL of my concerns that this team could have - Just like every other fan in here we want all of our bad thoughts to be proven wrong and the team to surprise us positively

Just like every other fan?

Not all fans have so many concerns, and not all are not surprised when the team does well.

I'm sure that if someone took the time in the archives to see who posted what last year before the season started, we would see the same people with the same concerns about the same things and complaining about what players BB kept and who he cut how our DLine lacked depth, how with Seymour on PUP, and Harrison suspended and Moss not practicing the Pats wouldn't even take the division ...

...and the rest of us being called homers because we felt the 2007 Pats would win the division. You see, it was realistic to say we were in trouble, and to say we were fine was to be a homer.

Sort of like this year.

 

[amazinPats]

I'll go on the record as well and say that Andy Johnson is correct in saying that the defense will be better this year. I've felt that way throughout training camp.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Just like every other fan?

Not all fans have so many concerns, and not all are not surprised when the team does well.

I'm sure that if someone took the time in the archives to see who posted what last year before the season started, we would see the same people with the same concerns about the same things and complaining about what players BB kept and who he cut how our DLine lacked depth, how with Seymour on PUP, and Harrison suspended and Moss not practicing the Pats wouldn't even take the division ...

...and the rest of us being called homers because we felt the 2007 Pats would win the division. You see, it was realistic to say we were in trouble, and to say we were fine was to be a homer.

Sort of like this year.

Who thought the 2007 Patriots would not win the division? - The Patriots were the lowest odds ever in Las Vegas NFL betting history to win the division besides the players you mentioned, so I don't know who you are referring to.

This year the team is favored in the division but not as low odds and I think the division will be much more competitive - In fact I would be EXTREMELY shocked (but happy) if NE swept this division this year.
I think a loss maybe even two will happen to NE in this division and the division will not be clinched till after the 14th game IMO

But regardless NE is still likely on top of the East for another year....for now

A Brady injury could change that in a hurry so don't count your chickens just yet - We have NO #2 backup QB on this roster,just a name with no talent.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

I'll go on the record as well and say that Andy Johnson is correct in saying that the defense will be better this year. I've felt that way throughout training camp.

Same here. I've said it right along-I think our D is going to rock this season. We made some interesting changes, starting with Capers. Capers was the first move of the offseason, which spoke volumes.

I've been psyched about the D since day 1:rocker: Preseason isn't a true indicator, not this year anyway.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I am going to be the first one to say this, and anyone who would like to can bookmark this and remind me of it whenever you want.
THE DEFENSE WILL BE BETTER THAN IT WAS LAST YEAR.
I also expect that we will break the team record for fewest points allowed, which we have hovered close to breaking in many of BBs years.

We have gotten faster, and younger. We have added Mayo, Wheatley, Sanders, ONeal, Wilhite, Crable.
What have we subracted?
Seau. In his prime thats a loss, at this stage of his career, it is not.
Samuel. OK, we lost a starter.
Colvin. Not really a loss since we didn't have him at the end, and were better with Thomas outside.
Gay. I do not believe that a player could make our roster who would perform worse than Randal Gay did in the SB.

I see improvement, I see more speed, I see a healthy Seymour, a better group of LBs including depth, I see Meriwhether upgrading speed and play at safety with a much larger role, and I see 2 strong rookies, PLUS 2 experienced vets to fill the role of Asante Samuel in playing TEAM DEFENSE.
If we think losing just one player can have the impact on this defense that it may have on another, then we have totally missed the point that BB builds an entire system around playing team defense, with less impact, good or bad, possible from any one player.

You said this a long time ago as well - and I hope you're still right.

From my standpoint, statistically I'm comfortable with a bend but don't break defense - one that gives up a lot of yards but not a lot of points - and is especially strong when it counts the most.

I make this distinction on offense as well as defense, much to the ire of some, promoting the notion that a defense or offense can statistically be worse but ultimately can be better (the opposite is true, where our 2006 offense was statistically better than some of our previous offenses yet it was clear to the eyes how flawed it was)

Here's hoping you're right - admittedly in the pre-season this defense has not been able to stop the standard vanilla offenses it's faced - but I'd be very happy to see this defense grow and gel as we get to the post season. In the meantime, I'm still confident that this offense can put enough points on the board to cover up any defensive deficiencies.

 

[Ring 6]

You said this a long time ago as well - and I hope you're still right.

From my standpoint, statistically I'm comfortable with a bend but don't break defense - one that gives up a lot of yards but not a lot of points - and is especially strong when it counts the most.

I make this distinction on offense as well as defense, much to the ire of some, promoting the notion that a defense or offense can statistically be worse but ultimately can be better (the opposite is true, where our 2006 offense was statistically better than some of our previous offenses yet it was clear to the eyes how flawed it was)

Here's hoping you're right - admittedly in the pre-season this defense has not been able to stop the standard vanilla offenses it's faced - but I'd be very happy to see this defense grow and gel as we get to the post season. In the meantime, I'm still confident that this offense can put enough points on the board to cover up any defensive deficiencies.

Let me go back to what I said I WANTED to happen after the SB, and compare to where we are.

1) I said corners (starters) were not, and will not be a problem. With the exception of 2005 when no matter what we did, we had corners (read Duane Starks) that couldn't stay within 10 yards of a receiver, we have never had weak play at corner, no matter who BB puts in there. Its the system as much as BB finding guys to fit it.
2) The biggest problem the last 2 years is our pass D when the other team has no option but to throw every down. Nickel was a huge issue, because we had nickels that fit the 'steady, consistent, dont make mistakes' corner philosophy but were to slow and not agile enough to cover man to man. Rodney as a coverage safety in those situations has become a liability. Our LBs also we not good in coverage in those situations.

I do not know if Lynch will be back, if he is I expect him to be a nickel/dime "LB" that is aligned where a LB is but playing it like a DB. Rodney is EXCELLENT at blitzing from that role also. Meriwhether is the most skilled cover safety we have had, maybein the enitre BB era, and will have a huge impact in this area.
The corners on the roster to play nickel or dime are MUCH better suited to deal with the problem we've had the last 2 years. Much faster, mcuh better athletes.

At LB, I expect the LBs in coverage in these situations to be a priority over the LBs set as DEs. Thomas and Vrabel are both good coverage guys in nickel and dime. If Mayo or Lynch or Rodney do not fill that role, I expect AD and/or Vrabel to spend more time in coverage in these situations and have Crable, Woods, Green see more action from the DE spot.

IMO, COVERAGE in pass only situations is about the only consistent flaw I have seen in this team in 2 years, and I am confident BB has seen it as well, and has addressed it.

In the end if we allow 100 more points this year, but when we are ahead in February we can cover and not lose the lead, the defense will still have done what it needed to, in order to get the only acceptable result, winning the SB.

You can pretty much give me any scenario of this season, and if it results in winning the SB, its perfect to me, and if it results in anything else, it isn't good enough to me.

 

[cstjohn17]

Andy, I agree with some of your assessment, re: coverage in the middle of the field has been suspect. Mayo should help and AD is good in coverage.

I am not sure about the love for Merriweather, he made some very costly mistakes in the Superbowl. He is young and hopefully will improve his confidence with another year within the system. I like the way he hits but unless he improves his hands he will never be a playmaker.

I am not sure of what you are arguing, the start of the post talks about the defense being better in 08 than 07 and then your last statement talks about the Superbowl being all that matters. The two are not necessarily related, in 2003 the Pats had a great defense but they laid an egg in the Superbowl but the team still won.

I disagree completely about the 08 being better than 07, not because the 08 defense is weak but because the 07 defense was damn good. 4th in points in the regular season and the best defense in the playoffs. Against the best running teams in the league the defense played great. Some youth was needed but it will likely come with a learning surcharge. I hope the increased speed on defense helps but I like the 07 secondary and 07 LBs better than this year with the Dline being a wash.

The good thing for the defense is they play an easy schedule and some gruesome QBs. I predict 19 PPG and if healthy they should be championship caliber.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Andy, I agree with some of your assessment, re: coverage in the middle of the field has been suspect. Mayo should help and AD is good in coverage.

I am not sure about the love for Merriweather, he made some very costly mistakes in the Superbowl. He is young and hopefully will improve his confidence with another year within the system. I like the way he hits but unless he improves his hands he will never be a playmaker.

I am not sure of what you are arguing, the start of the post talks about the defense being better in 08 than 07 and then your last statement talks about the Superbowl being all that matters. The two are not necessarily related, in 2003 the Pats had a great defense but they laid an egg in the Superbowl but the team still won.

I disagree completely about the 08 being better than 07, not because the 08 defense is weak but because the 07 defense was damn good. 4th in points in the regular season and the best defense in the playoffs. Against the best running teams in the league the defense played great. Some youth was needed but it will likely come with a learning surcharge. I hope the increased speed on defense helps but I like the 07 secondary and 07 LBs better than this year with the Dline being a wash.

The good thing for the defense is they play an easy schedule and some gruesome QBs. I predict 19 PPG and if healthy they should be championship caliber.

who didn't make mistakes in the superbowl?

I think the 04 defense was better than 07.

 

[cstjohn17]

who didn't make mistakes in the superbowl?

I think the 04 defense was better than 07.

03 and 04 were very very good defenses, likely the best of the run. I wouldn't put the 07 defense in the same category but I may put them 3rd, the main point was that they were not chopped liver and were much better than they generally get credit for. If they would have played even a decent game against the Giants in week 17 they would have had the #1 offense and the #1 defense.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Let me go back to what I said I WANTED to happen after the SB, and compare to where we are.

1) I said corners (starters) were not, and will not be a problem. With the exception of 2005 when no matter what we did, we had corners (read Duane Starks) that couldn't stay within 10 yards of a receiver, we have never had weak play at corner, no matter who BB puts in there. Its the system as much as BB finding guys to fit it.
2) The biggest problem the last 2 years is our pass D when the other team has no option but to throw every down. Nickel was a huge issue, because we had nickels that fit the 'steady, consistent, dont make mistakes' corner philosophy but were to slow and not agile enough to cover man to man. Rodney as a coverage safety in those situations has become a liability. Our LBs also we not good in coverage in those situations.

I do not know if Lynch will be back, if he is I expect him to be a nickel/dime "LB" that is aligned where a LB is but playing it like a DB. Rodney is EXCELLENT at blitzing from that role also. Meriwhether is the most skilled cover safety we have had, maybein the enitre BB era, and will have a huge impact in this area.
The corners on the roster to play nickel or dime are MUCH better suited to deal with the problem we've had the last 2 years. Much faster, mcuh better athletes.

At LB, I expect the LBs in coverage in these situations to be a priority over the LBs set as DEs. Thomas and Vrabel are both good coverage guys in nickel and dime. If Mayo or Lynch or Rodney do not fill that role, I expect AD and/or Vrabel to spend more time in coverage in these situations and have Crable, Woods, Green see more action from the DE spot.

IMO, COVERAGE in pass only situations is about the only consistent flaw I have seen in this team in 2 years, and I am confident BB has seen it as well, and has addressed it.

In the end if we allow 100 more points this year, but when we are ahead in February we can cover and not lose the lead, the defense will still have done what it needed to, in order to get the only acceptable result, winning the SB.

You can pretty much give me any scenario of this season, and if it results in winning the SB, its perfect to me, and if it results in anything else, it isn't good enough to me.

Well I can see LBs being better. I can see the DL playing as well - perhaps even better.

I can see the secondary playing better TEAM DEFENSE - but that's still a big if for me - they all need to accept their roles, and execute their roles. Last year I didn't see Samuel as accepting his role and that hurt the team defense. With him gone they CAN be better - as we;ve seen in the past that our Secondary can be greater than the sum of its parts - whether it WILL be remains to be seen.

As far as Rodney blitzing, I question whether he has that speed anymore. If you'd like to embellish on that I'd be interested.

By the way folks - newbies, etc... THIS is the type of posts we like to see around here. Predictions, but backed with real honest to goodness football insight and analysis.

 

[JoePats]

I would say with confidence that the LBs and the DL will play better than they did last year. And if Meriweather progresses as expected, then the safeties as a group should be improved.

But in reality, Hobbs has to improve (possible) and Wheatley has to be able to step right in (who knows). I would think the corners would be OK at the beginning and then hopefully improve as the season goes on. That Wheatley is better than Bryant is not indicative that he will be good right away if Bryant stunk, which he obviously did. I will concede whoever is the nickel back can't be much worse than Gay was last year.

So color me cautiously optimistic regarding the defense, at least early in the season. Fortunately the schedule isn't that bad early on, with only the Jets and Chargers providing significant tests in the first five weeks.

 

[Metaphors]

If we set up a gameplan that a young QB has the opportunity to carve us up if he is consistent and good, and he is not capable of that, who cares how much he moves the ball before he fails to execute the play that kills the drive?

Because I think the Pats hold themselves to a higher standard than most teams. No reasonable person can complain about the stats you quoted and 16-0. I didn't and I won't. However, employing a defensive strategy that relies on the other team screwing up is too passive for my taste. It leaves to chance that a team might be able to get hot and play without mistakes (2006 AFCC game) or that the other team stays close, gets lucky late and the bounces go their way (SB 42).

This was rarely an issue last year because the offense dictated the pace of the game. Opposing teams tried to score a boatload of points and weren't able to pull it off. The same should be true this year and allow the Pats to have a successful defense and a top regular season record.

However, in the playoffs they don't let you average your statistics across multiple games and then declare a winner. At some point, the defense will have to take away what the opposing offense is doing well in that game...even if the scheme in general is built to allow it. That is what I am referring to. When it counts, can this defense take away a 5 yard dumpoff, an 8 yard slant or a 17 yard skinny post (the quickest and safest throws on the field) and finish off a playoff caliber team and quarterback?

As you stated, defending the middle of the field falls to linebackers and nickel DBs. I don't think it is a coincidence that Mayo and Wheatley were drafted to fill those roles. Add in an experienced Meriweather and the Pats have the horses to lock down the middle of the field when they need to. That would leave other areas of the field more exposed, but those areas take longer to reach (giving the pass rush an extra second) and are higher risk throws.

I have no doubt that the Pats will field a top 10 defense. I think it is entirely reasonable that they could set a team record for points allowed. I do have serious doubts about keeping the same passive defensive philosophy in the playoffs and expecting a championship as a result. It may happen, but I would prefer the defense finish the game rather than sitting back and waiting for the opposing QB to finish it themselves.

 

[arrellbee]

We are better with Thomas at OLB than Colvin. We are better with Mayon at ILB than Seau.
Gay was atrocious and certianly wasnt a 'big play guy'.

Really it boils down to Samuel getting Ints vs how many the guy who replaces him gets, and over the course of a season, it really doesn't add up to much.

Turnovers are not a huge factor in the overall quality of our D. What I mean is that the relatioship of our defenses overall play (ie which years were best/worse) is not directly correlated to which years we had the most or least turnovers.

I'm not so very enamored with interception stats - spread Samuels int's over the season it's less than one a game. What I would rather see are impressive passes defensed stats - like several a game.

 

[spacecrime]

Who thought the 2007 Patriots would not win the division? - The Patriots were the lowest odds ever in Las Vegas NFL betting history to win the division besides the players you mentioned, so I don't know who you are referring to.

If I have time tomorrow I'll check the archives. Surely you remember the angst over Seymour being on PUP, Harrison suspended, wide-spread info that Moss would be cut.

It just seems every year people come up with stuff about how bad things are, how our CBs (or Oline, or LBs or whatever) are the worst in years and how worried they are, and on and on. Then we win the division.

Then next August it repeats itself.

 

[jmt57]

One thing that I think may be being overlooked is a healthy Seymour. As we saw in the SB, a superior rush can more than compensate for an average secondary. In my opinion, if a team can control the line it is very unlikely that they will lose. The Pats have a very talented and healthy DL, which should more than make up for whatever concerns we have behind them.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Andy, I think your analysis of the defense being better than last year is wishful thinking. Sure they will be faster with their LB's but they are going to have their ups and downs. Also, their DB's are faster but their going to get schooled early in the season against good WR's. This defense is going to struggle early but get better as the season wears on. However, I don't think it will be enough.