Brady's Contract

[MoLewisrocks]

There's nothing in the CBA that says he has to hold out for top dollar or that he has to have an adversarial relationship with the team. Especially since any money saved on Brady would be spent helping the team via other players. It's just a red herring. It's not there in letter or in spirit. The fact that they sued after the contract ran out is completely irrelevent.

So there's no lack of logic in my post at all. He takes a discount in order to win more games. He might, he might not. It would make sense to, as he'd be more likely to win a SB, but that's up to him, it may not be worth it to him. He may want to grind out that last million.

Would the CBA try to block his contract if they thought he wasn't holding out for top dollar or near top dollar? Where does it say in the CBA that a player has to get the most money he can? Show me where it says that a player signing for a hometown discount is going against the letter or the spirit of the contract. You can't.

So maybe you weren't being snide, just wrong.

Brady is the leader of this team. Doormats can't lead, guys aren't eager to follow guys they don't respect. Brady has always had to walk that fine line between being one of them (the organization) and one of us (the players). Players don't appreciate others giving teams discounts unless their backs are against the wall. Because most of them realize that more often than not that money isn't going to trickle down to them, more likely it will go to some guy who replaces one of them.

 

[Deus Irae]

There's nothing in the CBA that says he has to hold out for top dollar or that he has to have an adversarial relationship with the team. Especially since any money saved on Brady would be spent helping the team via other players. It's just a red herring. It's not there in letter or in spirit. The fact that they sued after the contract ran out is completely irrelevent.

So there's no lack of logic in my post at all. He takes a discount in order to win more games. He might, he might not. It would make sense to, as he'd be more likely to win a SB, but that's up to him, it may not be worth it to him. He may want to grind out that last million.

Would the CBA try to block his contract if they thought he wasn't holding out for top dollar or near top dollar? Where does it say in the CBA that a player has to get the most money he can? Show me where it says that a player signing for a hometown discount is going against the letter or the spirit of the contract. You can't.

So maybe you weren't being snide, just wrong.

Show me a list of all the QBs who have deliberately and purposefully taken $5million per year less than they were worth, in order to "win more games" when they're among the winningest QBs in league history, still competing for titles every season, are former team reps and are still at the very top of their profession.

When you realize the list has zero names, perhaps you'll start to figure it out.

 

[mgteich]

A) Thank you for your explanation. Obviously, I thought that you wanted to give Brady more than you do.

B) This is a GREAT, GREAT deal for the patriots.

C) Brady would be signing a contract that starts in two years at last year's price levels with no compensation at all other than guaranteeing the last year of this current contract and the first year of the next.

D) The cap savings this year is the same as that would result from restructuring. Obviously, Brady would be willing to restructure again. He might reasonably ask that next year's monies be guaranteed, since this year's amounts already are guaranteed (the usual incentive is the guarantee of this year's money).

E) If I were Brady, I would expect more. Otherwise, why shouldn't Brady just wait until next year (and wait to see a couple of more contracts)? By the end of next season (the time of negotiation) his last year will be guaranteed, or perhaps even earlier.

F) My BOTTOM LINE is that the $6.75M of savings is there through restructuring.

If the team wants to guarantee Brady's services for three future years, they should expect to pay more than last year's prices.

In my mind, the issue of signing Brady has little to do with cap savings. Extending Brady is about gaining security for the team now, before prices go up and before Brady has even more leverage than now.

Whew...

Here is a quick and dirty take on a pretty straightforward Brady deal just so folks can see the cap implications.

Extension terms 3 years thru 2017 for $60M added onto 2 existing remaining years.

Signing bonus $15M ($3M amortized against the cap between 2013-2017) ($$ will be fully guaranteed on 3/17 anyway, benefit to Brady is he gets it in hand 6-9 months earlier plus he gets a salary on top of it.)

Guaranteed money $45-48M guaranteed for skill, cap and injury (received in the first three years. Last time he got that but $19M of it was not skill guaranteed because expiring CBA rules precluded fully guaranteed money for cap purposes. Could go $45 on shorter term but $48 in this example just happens to be his take home in the first 3 years anyway).

Rolling guarantees that kick in beginning on the last day of the regular season in 2015 for his base salaries in the 2015 and 2016 and lets say on the first day of the 2017 season for $5M of his 2017 base salary.

Salaries of $5M in 2013, $10M in 2014, $18M in 2016, $20M in 2016, $22M in 2017. It won't be that simple (they could split some of the salary into roster bonuses to lower the guarantee although the roster bonuses would be guaranteed when due) but for this purpose simple is easier to understand. They may be interested in saving less on the front end than on the back end. Who knows. But either way it beats the hell out of doing nothing and facing tagging him at figures in excess of $26 to $30M or restructuring him again this season and facing a cap hit of $25M in 2014 and cap hits in excess of $30M if you wanted to tag him thereafter.

$250K workout bonuses throughout.

Total value of the deal 5 years $90M. AAV $18M. Total new money $60M AAv $20M.

Cap hits

2013 $15.05M (including $6.8M in existing amortization from signing bonus and 2012 restructure)(savings of $6.75M over existing cap hit) (unadjusted cap at $121M league wide)

2014 $20.0M (including $6.8M in existing amortization from signing bonus and 2012 restructure) (savings of $1.75M over existing cap hit)(unadjusted cap est. $125M league wide)

2015 $21.25M (unadjusted cap est. $130 league wide) (dead cap $9M, cap savings if cut $9M)

2016 $23.25M (unadjusted cap est. $135M league wide)

2017 $25.25M (unadjusted cap est. $140M+ league wide) dead cap if cut before first day of league year $3M, thereafter until the first week of the season $8M. If not they can hash it out thereafter if they want to continue year to year or if he or they or both are ready to move on at the end of that season.

So Brady's cap hits would be down a total of $9M over the next two years as the cap still rises by $4M and his cap hits would only increase over what they were scheduled to be in 2013-2014 by a total of $9M over the following 3 years when the cap is expected to rise at least $15M.

I know fans are getting so conditioned to flat caps they find it hard to imagine they will ever go up more than a couple of bucks again, but they will. They just won't go up exponentially, as in by double digits, during the life of this CBA. Slow and steady as Kraft says, and that is believed to be in the 4-5% range commencing shortly.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

A) Thank you for your explanation. Obviously, I thought that you wanted to give Brady more than you do.

B) This is a GREAT, GREAT deal for the patriots.

C) Brady would be signing a contract that starts in two years at last year's price levels with no compensation at all other than guaranteeing the last year of this current contract and the first year of the next. No, that's not true. He would be getting $20M in hand as opposed to $15M in 2013 and he'd be guaranteed $48M in the first three as opposed to $30M in the last 2 (and that second $15M in 2014 isn't guaranteed presently until the last week of the 2013 season). Plenty in it for Brady.

D) The cap savings this year is the same as that would result from restructuring. Obviously, Brady would be willing to restructure again. He might reasonably ask that next year's monies be guaranteed, since this year's amounts already are guaranteed (the usual incentive is the guarantee of this year's money). See above. They would be.

E) If I were Brady, I would expect more. Otherwise, why shouldn't Brady just wait until next year (and wait to see a couple of more contracts)? By the end of next season (the time of negotiation) his last year will be guaranteed, or perhaps even earlier. That is why the team should get a movin' now...it's always a balance of risk reward for both sides.

F) My BOTTOM LINE is that the $6.75M of savings is there through restructuring.

If the team wants to guarantee Brady's services for three future years, they should expect to pay more than last year's prices. At the moment last year's prices are the market. And Brady is getting them absent UFA, 2 years ahead of when Brees and Manning got theirs. That too is part of the tradeoff.

In my mind, the issue of signing Brady has little to do with cap savings. Extending Brady is about gaining security for the team now, before prices go up and before Brady has even more leverage than now.

You and I agree on that. Only those like IC who see his dotage looming and long for the team to move into then Mallett or god only knows who era don't.

 

[signbabybrady]

Show me a list of all the QBs who have deliberately and purposefully taken $5million per year less than they were worth, in order to "win more games" when they're among the winningest QBs in league history, still competing for titles every season, are former team reps and are still at the very top of their profession.

When you realize the list has zero names, perhaps you'll start to figure it out.

I know John Elway gave up money at the end of his career so the team would have more cap space. I believe it was so they could sign Neil Smith but I could be wrong about that. I highly doubt he gave up 5 mil but if you were take QB inflation rate into play maybe it would be a relatively close number.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I know John Elway gave up money at the end of his career so the team would have more cap space. I believe it was so they could sign Neil Smith but I could be wrong about that. I highly doubt he gave up 5 mil but if you were take QB inflation rate into play maybe it would be a relatively close number.

The hell he did. What he did was agree to an illegal deferral twice that cost them 2 3rd round draft picks and should have cost a lot more.

 

[signbabybrady]

Whew...

Here is a quick and dirty take on a pretty straightforward Brady deal just so folks can see the cap implications.

Extension terms 3 years thru 2017 for $60M added onto 2 existing remaining years.

Signing bonus $15M ($3M amortized against the cap between 2013-2017) ($$ will be fully guaranteed on 3/17 anyway, benefit to Brady is he gets it in hand 6-9 months earlier plus he gets a salary on top of it.)

Guaranteed money $45-48M guaranteed for skill, cap and injury (received in the first three years. Last time he got that but $19M of it was not skill guaranteed because expiring CBA rules precluded fully guaranteed money for cap purposes. Could go $45 on shorter term but $48 in this example just happens to be his take home in the first 3 years anyway).

Rolling guarantees that kick in beginning on the last day of the regular season in 2015 for his base salaries in the 2015 and 2016 and lets say on the first day of the 2017 season for $5M of his 2017 base salary.

Salaries of $5M in 2013, $10M in 2014, $18M in 2016, $20M in 2016, $22M in 2017. It won't be that simple (they could split some of the salary into roster bonuses to lower the guarantee although the roster bonuses would be guaranteed when due) but for this purpose simple is easier to understand. They may be interested in saving less on the front end than on the back end. Who knows. But either way it beats the hell out of doing nothing and facing tagging him at figures in excess of $26 to $30M or restructuring him again this season and facing a cap hit of $25M in 2014 and cap hits in excess of $30M if you wanted to tag him thereafter.

$250K workout bonuses throughout.

Total value of the deal 5 years $90M. AAV $18M. Total new money $60M AAv $20M.

Cap hits

2013 $15.05M (including $6.8M in existing amortization from signing bonus and 2012 restructure)(savings of $6.75M over existing cap hit) (unadjusted cap at $121M league wide)

2014 $20.0M (including $6.8M in existing amortization from signing bonus and 2012 restructure) (savings of $1.75M over existing cap hit)(unadjusted cap est. $125M league wide)

2015 $21.25M (unadjusted cap est. $130 league wide) (dead cap $9M, cap savings if cut $9M)

2016 $23.25M (unadjusted cap est. $135M league wide)

2017 $25.25M (unadjusted cap est. $140M+ league wide) dead cap if cut before first day of league year $3M, thereafter until the first week of the season $8M. If not they can hash it out thereafter if they want to continue year to year or if he or they or both are ready to move on at the end of that season.

So Brady's cap hits would be down a total of $9M over the next two years as the cap still rises by $4M and his cap hits would only increase over what they were scheduled to be in 2013-2014 by a total of $9M over the following 3 years when the cap is expected to rise at least $15M.

I know fans are getting so conditioned to flat caps they find it hard to imagine they will ever go up more than a couple of bucks again, but they will. They just won't go up exponentially, as in by double digits, during the life of this CBA. Slow and steady as Kraft says, and that is believed to be in the 4-5% range commencing shortly.

OK you definitely addressed all my concerns. I think there is enough new money and new signing bonus to Make Tom like this and Kraft is seeing a rather large cap saving for his upfront spending. If it is this simple than maybe it is a no brainer.

Looking at the way you did that and knowing the space we have now with only 3 or so key FA I am wondering if Maybe leaving Brady's hit the same this year and seeing the 15 mil next year might not be the smarter thing to do I believe we have some key FA coming up next year (Ninko, Spikes, and a few others).

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

The hell he did. What he did was agree to an illegal deferral twice that cost them 2 3rd round draft picks and should have cost a lot more.

It is criminal that this cap "cheating" that resulted directly in 2 SB wins never gets a mention on ESPN, etc. not that I watch any of them.

 

[signbabybrady]

The hell he did. What he did was agree to an illegal deferral twice that cost them 2 3rd round draft picks and should have cost a lot more.

Ha. I knew about Denver getting in the trouble and losing the picks and I knew about the Elway thing but I either completely forgot or just never put the two together.

 

[kennyb]

Show me a list of all the QBs who have deliberately and purposefully taken $5million per year less than they were worth, in order to "win more games" when they're among the winningest QBs in league history, still competing for titles every season, are former team reps and are still at the very top of their profession.

When you realize the list has zero names, perhaps you'll start to figure it out.

YOu keep shifting goal posts. I said it would be logical for him and you said he was a player's representative so it wouldn't look good.

I said it would be logical for him, now you say "show me a list of others who have".

I didn't say others had.

He has said the extra few million mean basically nothing to him. If so, then it WOULD be logical to accept 15M as opposed to squeezing out 20M or leaving, whether or not other QBs have done so.

 

[Brady2Moss]

YOu keep shifting goal posts. I said it would be logical for him and you said he was a player's representative so it wouldn't look good.

I said it would be logical for him, now you say "show me a list of others who have".

I didn't say others had.

He has said the extra few million mean basically nothing to him. If so, then it WOULD be logical to accept 15M as opposed to squeezing out 20M or leaving, whether or not other QBs have done so.

He's not going to do it. Maybe they can get by with giving him 18 million a year and say a couple million, but they can't expect him to play for $10 million he has other things to think about.

 

[Deus Irae]

YOu keep shifting goal posts. I said it would be logical for him and you said he was a player's representative so it wouldn't look good.

I said it would be logical for him, now you say "show me a list of others who have".

I didn't say others had.

He has said the extra few million mean basically nothing to him. If so, then it WOULD be logical to accept 15M as opposed to squeezing out 20M or leaving, whether or not other QBs have done so.

I didn't shift the goalposts. Your argument has been idiotic. I've shown it to be illogical based upon the facts. I then followed that up by pointing out that it's never been done.

It's not my fault that you can't just admit your post was ridiculous. It's one thing to talk about a discount at the edges. It's a completely different animal to talk about a $5 million dollar per year haircut when he's got no need, or real incentive, to accept.

 

[IllegalContact]

You and I agree on that. Only those like IC who see his dotage looming and long for the team to move into then Mallett or god only knows who era don't.

dude.....the guy is getting old.......your stupid fantasy that he will somehow play at the same level at 38,39,40 is idiotic at best. waiting for him to fail is not sound team management

i don't think you'll see an extension this year.......there really is no need for it

 

[kennyb]

I didn't shift the goalposts. Your argument has been idiotic. I've shown it to be illogical based upon the facts. I then followed that up by pointing out that it's never been done.

It's not my fault that you can't just admit your post was ridiculous. It's one thing to talk about a discount at the edges. It's a completely different animal to talk about a $5 million dollar per year haircut when he's got no need, or real incentive, to accept.

My post wasn't idiotic at all. If he wants to WIN then it would make sense to take less money. Simple point pretty much irrefutable. Free up money to retain some of the other guys on the team.

"No, no, leaders don't do that"...right leaders bend the team over so they have to waive goodbye to all the other guys who want to get paid. Good point.

He's even said in the past that it doesn't make sense to grub for the last million dollars he can get..."what use is an extra million dollars at this point" was pretty much his exact quote. So he doesn't see it as idiotic. Just cause you can't understand simple logic doesn't make it stupid.

Your point is he wouldn't do it because he's a union rep. and was part of a lawsuit. IRRELEVENT. He wouldn't do it as no one is doing it now. IRRELEVENT.

Now I see why people call you a pompous jerk and put you on ignore, I guess.

 

[Deus Irae]

My post wasn't idiotic at all. If he wants to WIN then it would make sense to take less money. Simple point pretty much irrefutable. Free up money to retain some of the other guys on the team.

He's winning now. You keep ignoring that.

"No, no, leaders don't do that"...right leaders bend the team over so they have to waive goodbye to all the other guys who want to get paid. Good point.

He's even said in the past that it doesn't make sense to grub for the last million dollars he can get..."what use is an extra million dollars at this point" was pretty much his exact quote. So he doesn't see it as idiotic. Just cause you can't understand simple logic doesn't make it stupid.

Again, there's a difference between taking less at the margins and taking a $5 million per year haircut. That's what you seem unable, or unwilling, to grasp.

Your point is he wouldn't do it because he's a union rep. and was part of a lawsuit. IRRELEVENT. He wouldn't do it as no one is doing it now. IRRELEVENT.

It's not irrelevant at all.

Now I see why people call you a pompous jerk and put you on ignore, I guess.

Given what most of your posts have been, the irony here is appreciated. But you should definitely do what you feel is best. :thumb:

 

[MoLewisrocks]

YOu keep shifting goal posts. I said it would be logical for him and you said he was a player's representative so it wouldn't look good.

I said it would be logical for him, now you say "show me a list of others who have".

I didn't say others had.

He has said the extra few million mean basically nothing to him. If so, then it WOULD be logical to accept 15M as opposed to squeezing out 20M or leaving, whether or not other QBs have done so.

That is not what he has said and what he said was in relation to holding out for every last nickle. He said the difference between getting another million or not after taxes in the bracket players are in not significant enough for him to dig in over. And he hasn't. In over a decade.

Setting the bar doesn't matter to Brady. He's only managed to once, and briefly, when his last deal new money averaged $18M. It was quickly eclipsed by Manning's 2011 deal and since by his 2011 Denver deal and Brees' deal. And each of those deals overall AVERAGED $1-2M more than Brady's new money only average and $3.5-4.3M more than his per year overall average. If he inks a new deal with $20M per new money for 3 years his overall 5 year average will top out be $18M, still a million or two below the top paid QB's in the league. And when new deals are done for Flacco, Rodgers and Eli, he will be lucky to remain in the top 5.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

dude.....the guy is getting old.......your stupid fantasy that he will somehow play at the same level at 38,39,40 is idiotic at best. waiting for him to fail is not sound team management

i don't think you'll see an extension this year.......there really is no need for it

What's getting old are your lame posts. My stupid logic seems to be shared my most of the board and the majority of the media who follow this team as well as it's owner who says he is content to wait for Tom, who is still wildly productive, to tell him when he thinks it is time to go.

And when you grade out as a top three if not the top performer at that position in the league at 35, even anticipating a dropoff from that level leaves you with a damn fine performer under center and in the enviable position of having a well above average franchise QB under your control for the forseeable future compared to the rest of the league who can mostly only dream of operating under that scenario. Much of what Brady does is attributable to the immeasurable skillset between his ears, and he's not going to lose his mind the way some QB's rapidly lose their cannon arms or speedy legs due to repetitive injuries or cumulative wear and tear.

Injury is the only thing you risk in extending Brady. And that is the same thing you risk in signing a 22 year old. Or a 28 year old. Or anyone who sets foot on an NFL field.

 

[IllegalContact]

What's getting old are your lame posts. My stupid logic seems to be shared my most of the board and the majority of the media who follow this team as well as it's owner who says he is content to wait for Tom, who is still wildly productive, to tell him when he thinks it is time to go.

And when you grade out as a top three if not the top performer at that position in the league at 35, even anticipating a dropoff from that level leaves you with a damn fine performer under center and in the enviable position of having a well above average franchise QB under your control for the forseeable future compared to the rest of the league who can mostly only dream of operating under that scenario. Much of what Brady does is attributable to the immeasurable skillset between his ears, and he's not going to lose his mind the way some QB's rapidly lose their cannon arms or speedy legs due to repetitive injuries or cumulative wear and tear.

Injury is the only thing you risk in extending Brady. And that is the same thing you risk in signing a 22 year old. Or a 28 year old. Or anyone who sets foot on an NFL field.

Injury risk is the same with a 22 year old as it is with a 36 year old? are you considering recovery when you say that? Brady's arm is simply going to continue to go on as long as his brain tells it to? the ball is simply going to get there because the brain says so......ok, got it.....good one

regardless of how cerebral older guys are, they are so much more easily beaten into submission

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Didn't want to start a new thread on this but found this interesting. This is what happens when you let guys play out their current contract. Rather than bite the bullit and extend Brees a year or two ago, they waited and signed him to a market setting deal. Even though what they needed was cap relief. So they took that relief last season in the form of a low first year cap hit and might already be looking at his deal for more help. Only with 4 years left there isn't any that won't kill their cap for the last 3 years...

Restructuring of Brees’ contract now could create major headaches later | ProFootballTalk

It's fine to do simple restructures early in deals that aren't already backloaded as Brees' was. Doing simple restructures late is bad business, which is what the Patriots did this time with Brady. Restructuring him again would only make matters worse. That is why now is the time to extend him. Doing so allows them to spread the hit on a 3 year new money extension over 5 years via amortization of what is essentially already guaranteed money he will receive in the next two seasons at the expense of guaranteeing him just one more year. The final two could be on rolling guarantees meaning if he doesn't decline he sees them. And his cap hits remain manageable while the team retains his rights for 5 years at cost certainty including minimal dead cap consequences in the event the sides opt to part ways before the contract is completed.

 

[jason423]

Didn't want to start a new thread on this but found this interesting. This is what happens when you let guys play out their current contract. Rather than bite the bullit and extend Brees a year or two ago, they waited and signed him to a market setting deal. Even though what they needed was cap relief. So they took that relief last season in the form of a low first year cap hit and might already be looking at his deal for more help. Only with 4 years left there isn't any that won't kill their cap for the last 3 years...

Restructuring of Brees’ contract now could create major headaches later | ProFootballTalk

It's fine to do simple restructures early in deals that aren't already backloaded as Brees' was. Doing simple restructures late is bad business, which is what the Patriots did this time with Brady. Restructuring him again would only make matters worse. That is why now is the time to extend him. Doing so allows them to spread the hit on a 3 year new money extension over 5 years via amortization of what is essentially already guaranteed money he will receive in the next two seasons at the expense of guaranteeing him just one more year. The final two could be on rolling guarantees meaning if he doesn't decline he sees them. And his cap hits remain manageable while the team retains his rights for 5 years at cost certainty including minimal dead cap consequences in the event the sides opt to part ways before the contract is completed.

Yeah its ultra important for teams to be proactive at certain positions rather than waiting until the last minute, especially as players age. Look at the mess the Steelers are in now because of their restructure and restructure and restructure philosophy. They are stuck with a bunch of guys and no way out of cap jail. Thats why it amazes me that their cap guy was up for a number of GM jobs. Their cap is an absolute disaster. Teams should never have back to back years where you have to scramble just to get even with the cap and thats where the Steelers are. New Orleans is in the same boat and its just chasing fools gold at some point. For the most part you should only consider restructuring a contract once before just tearing it up and going in a different direction and if you are a team that decides to keep the cap artificially low in year 1 restructuring during the course of the contract may not be feasible at all.