It seems right to separate this contract from next.
FIRST CONTRACT
You suggest converting the next two years into the signing bonus. That would be equal to $28M (given a one million dollar a year salary for the next two years). This would allow the pats to push over $25M of cap monies into the extension years, over $6M per year).
No, that is not what I suggested. I suggested converting his 2013 salary and roster bonus ($15M) into the signing bonus for the new deal (he got $16M in signing bonus last time out). His 2014 salary and roster bonus (which will become guaranteed at the end of 2013 as is) would become part of his guaranteed money on the new deal ($45M or so - he got $48 last time on a longer extension) perhaps even in the form of an option bonus if they want to push more money forward.
SECOND CONTRACT QUESTIONS
A) What is the value to Brady. What are the guaranteed monies? This seems to be the carrot for Brady. He has only fifteen million of guaranteed money now. $45M guaranteed as part of an extension.
B) Why would Brady take less that the $20M a year that other top quarterbacks are getting, with similar amounts of guarantee.Not being asked to in new money, just in old money. And the benefit is he gets it sooner.
C) Do we want 3 years of $26M caps instead of the $20M that would result from no moving of monies into the new contract? Are we so sure than of significant cap increases that we would use over $25M of the increase this year and next? Obviously, Gronk, Hernandez and others will be using a lot of the increase. There wouldn't be any $26M caps unless the team decides that is the way they want to roll. I have no idea what you are talking about when you say using over $25M of the increase this year and next. The increase will be used across the board, as they always are.
BOTTOM LINE
I am absolutely fine with extending Brady.
Whew...
Here is a quick and dirty take on a pretty straightforward Brady deal just so folks can see the cap implications.
Extension terms 3 years thru 2017 for $60M added onto 2 existing remaining years.
Signing bonus $15M ($3M amortized against the cap between 2013-2017) ($$ will be fully guaranteed on 3/17 anyway, benefit to Brady is he gets it in hand 6-9 months earlier plus he gets a salary on top of it.)
Guaranteed money $45-48M guaranteed for skill, cap and injury (received in the first three years. Last time he got that but $19M of it was not skill guaranteed because expiring CBA rules precluded fully guaranteed money for cap purposes. Could go $45 on shorter term but $48 in this example just happens to be his take home in the first 3 years anyway).
Rolling guarantees that kick in beginning on the last day of the regular season in 2015 for his base salaries in the 2015 and 2016 and lets say on the first day of the 2017 season for $5M of his 2017 base salary.
Salaries of $5M in 2013, $10M in 2014, $18M in 2016, $20M in 2016, $22M in 2017. It won't be that simple (they could split some of the salary into roster bonuses to lower the guarantee although the roster bonuses would be guaranteed when due) but for this purpose simple is easier to understand. They may be interested in saving less on the front end than on the back end. Who knows. But either way it beats the hell out of doing nothing and facing tagging him at figures in excess of $26 to $30M or restructuring him again this season and facing a cap hit of $25M in 2014 and cap hits in excess of $30M if you wanted to tag him thereafter.
$250K workout bonuses throughout.
Total value of the deal 5 years $90M. AAV $18M. Total new money $60M AAv $20M.
Cap hits
2013 $15.05M (including $6.8M in existing amortization from signing bonus and 2012 restructure)(savings of $6.75M over existing cap hit) (unadjusted cap at $121M league wide)
2014 $20.0M (including $6.8M in existing amortization from signing bonus and 2012 restructure) (savings of $1.75M over existing cap hit)(unadjusted cap est. $125M league wide)
2015 $21.25M (unadjusted cap est. $130 league wide) (dead cap $9M, cap savings if cut $9M)
2016 $23.25M (unadjusted cap est. $135M league wide)
2017 $25.25M (unadjusted cap est. $140M+ league wide) dead cap if cut before first day of league year $3M, thereafter until the first week of the season $8M. If not they can hash it out thereafter if they want to continue year to year or if he or they or both are ready to move on at the end of that season.
So Brady's cap hits would be down a total of $9M over the next two years as the cap still rises by $4M and his cap hits would only increase over what they were scheduled to be in 2013-2014 by a total of $9M over the following 3 years when the cap is expected to rise at least $15M.
I know fans are getting so conditioned to flat caps they find it hard to imagine they will ever go up more than a couple of bucks again, but they will. They just won't go up exponentially, as in by double digits, during the life of this CBA. Slow and steady as Kraft says, and that is believed to be in the 4-5% range commencing shortly.