Brady's Contract

[IllegalContact]

sorry.......just don't see committing 20M/per to anyone when they're going to be 39 and 40 years old......just because he says he wants to play until 40 does nto mean he should get 20M/yr until he's 40.

I think this situation is no different in principle than welker.....since there would be little cap relief to be had in this extension, or at best , 5M for 2013, the smartest move for the pats is to let this contract play itself out and either tag him for one more year or if he happens to not be worth it, let him retire or try to get 20+M somewhere else.

giving a 36 year old with 2 years left on a contract a 3 year extension is about as foolish as it gets

I think the actual football minds in the organization would be none too offended if brady simply decided to call it a career after the next 2 seasons

 

[Deus Irae]

Brady SHOULD be willing to give the Pats two more years at 15M per with no signing bonus. Just guarantee next year's and then spread that over the remaining and his cap hit would go down.

Brady has made enough money from them and he hasn't won a SB in how many years? Not saying he shouldn't be well paid, but 15M is pretty well paid even by NFL standards. I think he wants a ring more than money at this point anyway.

Why even $15million per? Hell, the Patriots should just offer him the league minimum. :bricks:

 

[kennyb]

Why even $15million per? Hell, the Patriots should just offer him the league minimum. :bricks:

Logically, he should be willing to play for little, IF that is, he wants to make a legacy and be one of only a few guys with 4 sbs or be the only one with 5sbs (or 6). The more he wins, the more money he gets in endorsements/fame/glory so that would MORE than make up for a low salary. It's just a question of his priorities, whether he still wants to play, still wants to win etc.

Not saying he has to do that and if he doesn't he's a jerk, just that there is a logic to it.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I thought he is under contract through 2014? why would we be talking tag values for that year?

As I understand it Brady is owed around 21 mil for this season 2013 and a similar number for 2014. I know salaries are not guarenteed in football but you can all but guarentee Brady would be able to command close to 20 mil almost regardless of what happens (see Manning missing a year and having major kneck surgery as evidence). So again why would he want to defer money into future years when the money is here now and will be there again in 2 years.

Same thing can be said for Kraft he is on the books for 40 to Tom he might be able to get a little relief from that this season but in order to do so he would need to add 20-40mil to the total payment which he could just wait to do as well and not see the minor savings.

I am not saying that you cant find the space and a logical deal but I am saying that given the amount of money we are talking about I am not sure it is really worth it for either side probably much more so on Kraft.

Should read 2015 and 2016. In other words if they just maintain the status quo for two more years or if they do a simple restructure for cap space this season then their options are to tag him at those amounts or do an extension at what will be higher market values or let him walk.

The logical alternative is to get an extension done now that is reasonable for both sides. Because those tag #'s are all untenable as will be his contract requirement come 2015 if they let him get to UFA. Brady would have to be pretty hacked off to move on, but failure to extend him past 2014 before then would probably be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

 

[Deus Irae]

Logically, he should be willing to play for little, IF that is, he wants to make a legacy and be one of only a few guys with 4 sbs or be the only one with 5sbs (or 6). The more he wins, the more money he gets in endorsements/fame/glory so that would MORE than make up for a low salary. It's just a question of his priorities, whether he still wants to play, still wants to win etc.

Not saying he has to do that and if he doesn't he's a jerk, just that there is a logic to it.

Your apparent definition of logic is different than the definition used by probably every other human being in the world.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Let me see if I can try and explain my view point better.

To me there are a few variables that are key to the renegotiation.

1) total money owed Tom for the final two years.$30M, half of which became guaranteed the final week of last season and the rest of which will be guaranteed on the last day of the 2013 season.
2) Cap charge for this upcoming season. $21.8M in 2013 and 2014. Up $3.6M per year due to simple restructure (converting existing salary and roster bonus to signing bonus for cap treatment purposes) last season to free up $7.2M in cap space.
3) Check Kraft would have to hand to Tom in order to add years to the deal Probably $3-5M more than he's going to have to write him checks for this season anyway since the money is already guaranteed. Difference is he'd get it all now instead of $5M next month and $10M over the course of the 17 week 2013 season.
From Toms perspective he has X in his pocket already and you can give him what would be his next contract now to try and reduce some of the hit of X on this years cap charge. But how big of a check does Kraft have to cut right now in order to balance what you are taking from X to create the cap savings this year.

It wouldn't just reduce his cap hit this year. It would reduce it for 5 years because the overall deal would only average $18M per. You're not taking anything from X to create cap savings this year. He's going to get paid for X at some point, unless you don't believe he has 2 more years plus 1 left in him. As for 2016-17 those years his salary and any roster bonuses would be unguaranteed initially and paid only if he earned them through the kind of rolling guarantees he's had in his current deal. His guaranteed money would be paid up in 3 years or by 2015... If you cut him in 2016 his dead cap would be in the $6M+ range divided over 2 seasons with a net cap savings of $30M+ (depending on how/whether you backload salary) over the same period.

I have X in my pocket and I have no intention of working a day for free as a result. Let alone a day when my boss and his boss and everyone else in the outfit is getting paid handsomely.

 

[kennyb]

Your apparent definition of logic is different than the definition used by probably every other human being in the world.

How so?

The less money he takes the more likely they are to win a SB, and if they do win, his lifetime future post football earnings will likely go way up. Thus if he wants more money in the future, take less money now. Same argument goes for fame/legacy, even more so as a matter of fact. Less money now, more fame later.

Given that Brady is probably worth 100 million dollars I don't think a few million either way will mean that much to him. AS a matter of fact he said that YEARS ago, when he was worth much less.

You are being snide but you probably didn't even read what I wrote.

 

[ralmat55]

sorry.......just don't see committing 20M/per to anyone when they're going to be 39 and 40 years old......just because he says he wants to play until 40 does nto mean he should get 20M/yr until he's 40.

I think this situation is no different in principle than welker.....since there would be little cap relief to be had in this extension, or at best , 5M for 2013, the smartest move for the pats is to let this contract play itself out and either tag him for one more year or if he happens to not be worth it, let him retire or try to get 20+M somewhere else.

giving a 36 year old with 2 years left on a contract a 3 year extension is about as foolish as it gets

I think the actual football minds in the organization would be none too offended if brady simply decided to call it a career after the next 2 seasons

The actual football minds WOULD be offended if Brady is still playing close to his current level at the end of the 2014 season. To me, if he still has his desire to play the game and avoids serious injury, he will be just a good a QB at 39 as he will be at 36. It's not like he makes his money with his wheels; he ran like a 40 yr old when he was 25.

The Brady era isn't likely to end perfectly. He'll probably depart either too early of too late, but, unless they have or acquire a worthy successor, I'd rather see him leave too late.

 

[Deus Irae]

How so?

The less money he takes the more likely they are to win a SB, and if they do win, his lifetime future post football earnings will likely go way up. Thus if he wants more money in the future, take less money now. Same argument goes for fame/legacy, even more so as a matter of fact. Less money now, more fame later.

Given that Brady is probably worth 100 million dollars I don't think a few million either way will mean that much to him. AS a matter of fact he said that YEARS ago, when he was worth much less.

You are being snide but you probably didn't even read what I wrote.

In the past 2 seasons, with the cap number he's had already, the Patriots have gone to the AFCCG and the SB. The money aspect is not the issue. Brady's a former player rep, and he's one of the guys who put his name on the lawsuit against the league in the CBA battle. Not only would it not be logical for him to take some $5million per year less than he could, it would run counter to the logic of the current situation when it would be Brady helping out the team by extending his deal in the first place. Is it theoretically possible? Sure, but that doesn't make it logical.

If you'd talked about lesser money up front augmented by reasonable incentives which would take into account the potential for a significant drop in play, that might theoretically be done in such a way that both parties are adequately protected. Talking about a huge flat-out pay cut for a guy who's still at the very top of his profession, though, just made no logical sense.

Pointing out the lack of logic in your post wasn't being snide. It was being logical.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

sorry.......just don't see committing 20M/per to anyone when they're going to be 39 and 40 years old......just because he says he wants to play until 40 does nto mean he should get 20M/yr until he's 40.

I think this situation is no different in principle than welker.....since there would be little cap relief to be had in this extension, or at best , 5M for 2013, the smartest move for the pats is to let this contract play itself out and either tag him for one more year or if he happens to not be worth it, let him retire or try to get 20+M somewhere else.

giving a 36 year old with 2 years left on a contract a 3 year extension is about as foolish as it gets

I think the actual football minds in the organization would be none too offended if brady simply decided to call it a career after the next 2 seasons

The problem is you just don't understand how NFL contracts work. I've tried explaining to no apparent avail. The backend salaries are never guaranteed unless it's through rolling or earned guarantees like Brady has opted for. There would be cap relief throughout this deal because it would average $3.8M per less than what his present remaining cap hits are.

Brees contract pays him $20M in AAV and runs through age 38. Manning's contract pays him $19.2M AAV and runs through age 40. A 3 year extension at $60M would put Brady on a 5 year deal with an AAV of $18.3M that runs through age 40. $20M+ is about to become the going market rate for franchise QB's. Flacco's deal will meet or exceed that if his agent is to be believed. And you can bet that Rodgers and Eli's agents will be looking to raise the bar.

And if you actually believe that the actual football minds in this organization would be fine with Brady walking off into the sunset after 2014 then you also don't understand how actual football minds work.

 

[IllegalContact]

The problem is you just don't understand how NFL contracts work. I've tried explaining to no apparent avail. The backend salaries are never guaranteed unless it's through rolling or earned guarantees like Brady has opted for. There would be cap relief throughout this deal because it would average $3.8M per less than what his present remaining cap hits are.

Brees contract pays him $20M in AAV and runs through age 38. Manning's contract pays him $19.2M AAV and runs through age 40. A 3 year extension at $60M would put Brady on a 5 year deal with an AAV of $18.3M that runs through age 40. $20M+ is about to become the going market rate for franchise QB's. Flacco's deal will meet or exceed that if his agent is to be believed. And you can bet that Rodgers and Eli's agents will be looking to raise the bar.

And if you actually believe that the actual football minds in this organization would be fine with Brady walking off into the sunset after 2014 then you also don't understand how actual football minds work.

It is all about new money.....20m per plus whatever you push out of the existing 2 years which will be guaranteed.

Brady is also paid until he is 38......adding post age 38 years when a guy is 36 is stupid since it kills the team in the instance he staggers out of the 2013 2014 or the 2015 seasons.

Yes you've explained only from a perspective of living in Brady's underwear. When he appears to be broken down and there's 20m of dead money....it will make just as little sense then

You don't know how the football minds work either

 

[signbabybrady]

Should read 2015 and 2016. In other words if they just maintain the status quo for two more years or if they do a simple restructure for cap space this season then their options are to tag him at those amounts or do an extension at what will be higher market values or let him walk.

The logical alternative is to get an extension done now that is reasonable for both sides. Because those tag #'s are all untenable as will be his contract requirement come 2015 if they let him get to UFA. Brady would have to be pretty hacked off to move on, but failure to extend him past 2014 before then would probably be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Still given the money and the age might be best to wait until next offseason to deal with this.

It wouldn't just reduce his cap hit this year. It would reduce it for 5 years because the overall deal would only average $18M per. You're not taking anything from X to create cap savings this year. He's going to get paid for X at some point, unless you don't believe he has 2 more years plus 1 left in him. As for 2016-17 those years his salary and any roster bonuses would be unguaranteed initially and paid only if he earned them through the kind of rolling guarantees he's had in his current deal. His guaranteed money would be paid up in 3 years or by 2015... If you cut him in 2016 his dead cap would be in the $6M+ range divided over 2 seasons with a net cap savings of $30M+ (depending on how/whether you backload salary) over the same period.

I have X in my pocket and I have no intention of working a day for free as a result. Let alone a day when my boss and his boss and everyone else in the outfit is getting paid handsomely.

So what is actually saved on the cap? from above I see it looks like 3 mil?

What is the total dollar that Kraft write on a check(bonus this offseason) to get this done? And what is the total dollar of the two years left now compared the two years under the new deal? Basically Krafts Total money spent on the 2 years now compared to the new structure(wether it be bonus or salary)? Then what is the added total of the new years even if Kraft can get out from under each?

And are you sure if the answers above can satisfy Kraft that it would be enough money to make Brady do the restructure when as you say if he were to stand pat and collect his money through these 2 seasons the tag would be in his corner as far as how much it would cost the Pats to use it on him.

 

[Helmet2Helmet]

Why isn't anyone talking about Logan Mankins? He has a huge cap hit too I believe. People want to write Vollmer off as replaceable, I don't recall the offensive line stumbling to bad without Mankins. I wonder sometimes if hes worth the huge contract.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

It is all about new money.....20m per plus whatever you push out of the existing 2 years which will be guaranteed.

Brady is also paid until he is 38......adding post age 38 years when a guy is 36 is stupid since it kills the team in the instance he staggers out of the 2013 2014 or the 2015 seasons.

Yes you've explained only from a perspective of living in Brady's underwear. When he appears to be broken down and there's 20m of dead money....it will make just as little sense then

You don't know how the football minds work either

You don't push anything out of the existing 2 years. That's old money and you just pay it up front as part of his new signing bonus and guarantees to give you better flexibility in managing your cap. You can account for as much or as little of it via frontloading/backloading or level hits as you choose. Brady is already guaranteed $15M for this season. He will be guaranteed his remaining $15M for next season if he's still on the roster in week 17 of this season. If he staggers out of 2013 they are screwed already. Same way they are screwed if Mankins or Jerod Mayo staggers out of 2012... since they still owe them each double digit guaranteed money. Guess they should just pay everyone as they go and see how that works...since you clearly don't grasp the concept of risk reward.

Brady is still playing at a top 5 or better level depending on whose metrics you measure performance by. FO has him rated the best in the league. I know you're itching for the Mallett era. You should see a doc about treating that itch because it's unhealthy. Even the Browns aren't jonesing for Mallett.

If Brady staggers out of the 2015 season his dead cap in 2016 would be single digits divided by 2 remaining seasons...because his backend salaries wouldn't be guaranteed until he at least arrives at them.

Personally I'd do a 4 year extension because that offers even more flexibility since the final year would be a zero dead cap season unless I opt along the way to spread some amortization forward because it suits my purposes. And as Jonathan says, contracts and cap are all about maintaining flexibility.

 

[Deus Irae]

Why isn't anyone talking about Logan Mankins? He has a huge cap hit too I believe. People want to write Vollmer off as replaceable, I don't recall the offensive line stumbling to bad without Mankins. I wonder sometimes if hes worth the huge contract.

Mankins has been talked about in other threads. His contract setup makes him more expensive against the cap to cut this year than to keep and play. Next year is the first year the Patriots can get any kind of cap relief from cutting Mankins, and even that's not much. Mankins deal is set up so that he'll be in New England for at least another 2 years barring very unusual circumstances.

 

[Helmet2Helmet]

Mankins has been talked about in other threads. His contract setup makes him more expensive against the cap to cut this year than to keep and play. Next year is the first year the Patriots can get any kind of cap relief from cutting Mankins, and even that's not much. Mankins deal is set up so that he'll be in New England for at least another 2 years barring very unusual circumstances.

Gotcha, thanks for the clarification. I just saw the stat that he, Brady, and Wilfork took up 35% or what not.

 

[mgteich]

It seems right to separate this contract from next.

FIRST CONTRACT
You suggest converting the next two years into the signing bonus. That would be equal to $28M (given a one million dollar a year salary for the next two years). This would allow the pats to push over $25M of cap monies into the extension years, over $6M per year).

SECOND CONTRACT QUESTIONS
A) What is the value to Brady. What are the guaranteed monies? This seems to be the carrot for Brady. He has only fifteen million of guaranteed money now.
B) Why would Brady take less that the $20M a year that other top quarterbacks are getting, with similar amounts of guarantee.

C) Do we want 3 years of $26M caps instead of the $20M that would result from no moving of monies into the new contract? Are we so sure than of significant cap increases that we would use over $25M of the increase this year and next? Obviously, Gronk, Hernandez and others will be using a lot of the increase.

BOTTOM LINE
I am absolutely fine with extending Brady.

You don't push anything out of the existing 2 years. That's old money and you just pay it up front as part of his new signing bonus and guarantees to give you better flexibility in managing your cap. You can account for as much or as little of it via frontloading/backloading or level hits as you choose. Brady is already guaranteed $15M for this season. He will be guaranteed his remaining $15M for next season if he's still on the roster in week 17 of this season. If he staggers out of 2013 they are screwed already. Same way they are screwed if Mankins or Jerod Mayo staggers out of 2012... since they still owe them each double digit guaranteed money. Guess they should just pay everyone as they go and see how that works...since you clearly don't grasp the concept of risk reward.

Brady is still playing at a top 5 or better level depending on whose metrics you measure performance by. FO has him rated the best in the league. I know you're itching for the Mallett era. You should see a doc about treating that itch because it's unhealthy. Even the Browns aren't jonesing for Mallett.

If Brady staggers out of the 2015 season his dead cap in 2016 would be single digits divided by 2 remaining seasons...because his backend salaries wouldn't be guaranteed until he at least arrives at them.

Personally I'd do a 4 year extension because that offers even more flexibility since the final year would be a zero dead cap season unless I opt along the way to spread some amortization forward because it suits my purposes. And as Jonathan says, contracts and cap are all about maintaining flexibility.

 

[kennyb]

In the past 2 seasons, with the cap number he's had already, the Patriots have gone to the AFCCG and the SB. The money aspect is not the issue. Brady's a former player rep, and he's one of the guys who put his name on the lawsuit against the league in the CBA battle. Not only would it not be logical for him to take some $5million per year less than he could, it would run counter to the logic of the current situation when it would be Brady helping out the team by extending his deal in the first place. Is it theoretically possible? Sure, but that doesn't make it logical.

If you'd talked about lesser money up front augmented by reasonable incentives which would take into account the potential for a significant drop in play, that might theoretically be done in such a way that both parties are adequately protected. Talking about a huge flat-out pay cut for a guy who's still at the very top of his profession, though, just made no logical sense.

Pointing out the lack of logic in your post wasn't being snide. It was being logical.

There's nothing in the CBA that says he has to hold out for top dollar or that he has to have an adversarial relationship with the team. Especially since any money saved on Brady would be spent helping the team via other players. It's just a red herring. It's not there in letter or in spirit. The fact that they sued after the contract ran out is completely irrelevent.

So there's no lack of logic in my post at all. He takes a discount in order to win more games. He might, he might not. It would make sense to, as he'd be more likely to win a SB, but that's up to him, it may not be worth it to him. He may want to grind out that last million.

Would the CBA try to block his contract if they thought he wasn't holding out for top dollar or near top dollar? Where does it say in the CBA that a player has to get the most money he can? Show me where it says that a player signing for a hometown discount is going against the letter or the spirit of the contract. You can't.

So maybe you weren't being snide, just wrong.

 

[mgteich]

There is nothing in the CBA that says that Brady can't be an idiot and take much less money than he is worth to the pats or on the open market. You heard it first here. It ain't going to happen.

There's nothing in the CBA that says he has to hold out for top dollar or that he has to have an adversarial relationship with the team. Especially since any money saved on Brady would be spent helping the team via other players. It's just a red herring. It's not there in letter or in spirit. The fact that they sued after the contract ran out is completely irrelevent.

So there's no lack of logic in my post at all. He takes a discount in order to win more games. He might, he might not. It would make sense to, as he'd be more likely to win a SB, but that's up to him, it may not be worth it to him. He may want to grind out that last million.

Would the CBA try to block his contract if they thought he wasn't holding out for top dollar or near top dollar? Where does it say in the CBA that a player has to get the most money he can? Show me where it says that a player signing for a hometown discount is going against the letter or the spirit of the contract. You can't.

So maybe you weren't being snide, just wrong.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

It seems right to separate this contract from next.

FIRST CONTRACT
You suggest converting the next two years into the signing bonus. That would be equal to $28M (given a one million dollar a year salary for the next two years). This would allow the pats to push over $25M of cap monies into the extension years, over $6M per year).

No, that is not what I suggested. I suggested converting his 2013 salary and roster bonus ($15M) into the signing bonus for the new deal (he got $16M in signing bonus last time out). His 2014 salary and roster bonus (which will become guaranteed at the end of 2013 as is) would become part of his guaranteed money on the new deal ($45M or so - he got $48 last time on a longer extension) perhaps even in the form of an option bonus if they want to push more money forward.

SECOND CONTRACT QUESTIONS
A) What is the value to Brady. What are the guaranteed monies? This seems to be the carrot for Brady. He has only fifteen million of guaranteed money now. $45M guaranteed as part of an extension.
B) Why would Brady take less that the $20M a year that other top quarterbacks are getting, with similar amounts of guarantee.Not being asked to in new money, just in old money. And the benefit is he gets it sooner.

C) Do we want 3 years of $26M caps instead of the $20M that would result from no moving of monies into the new contract? Are we so sure than of significant cap increases that we would use over $25M of the increase this year and next? Obviously, Gronk, Hernandez and others will be using a lot of the increase. There wouldn't be any $26M caps unless the team decides that is the way they want to roll. I have no idea what you are talking about when you say using over $25M of the increase this year and next. The increase will be used across the board, as they always are.

BOTTOM LINE
I am absolutely fine with extending Brady.

Whew...

Here is a quick and dirty take on a pretty straightforward Brady deal just so folks can see the cap implications.

Extension terms 3 years thru 2017 for $60M added onto 2 existing remaining years.

Signing bonus $15M ($3M amortized against the cap between 2013-2017) ($$ will be fully guaranteed on 3/17 anyway, benefit to Brady is he gets it in hand 6-9 months earlier plus he gets a salary on top of it.)

Guaranteed money $45-48M guaranteed for skill, cap and injury (received in the first three years. Last time he got that but $19M of it was not skill guaranteed because expiring CBA rules precluded fully guaranteed money for cap purposes. Could go $45 on shorter term but $48 in this example just happens to be his take home in the first 3 years anyway).

Rolling guarantees that kick in beginning on the last day of the regular season in 2015 for his base salaries in the 2015 and 2016 and lets say on the first day of the 2017 season for $5M of his 2017 base salary.

Salaries of $5M in 2013, $10M in 2014, $18M in 2016, $20M in 2016, $22M in 2017. It won't be that simple (they could split some of the salary into roster bonuses to lower the guarantee although the roster bonuses would be guaranteed when due) but for this purpose simple is easier to understand. They may be interested in saving less on the front end than on the back end. Who knows. But either way it beats the hell out of doing nothing and facing tagging him at figures in excess of $26 to $30M or restructuring him again this season and facing a cap hit of $25M in 2014 and cap hits in excess of $30M if you wanted to tag him thereafter.

$250K workout bonuses throughout.

Total value of the deal 5 years $90M. AAV $18M. Total new money $60M AAv $20M.

Cap hits

2013 $15.05M (including $6.8M in existing amortization from signing bonus and 2012 restructure)(savings of $6.75M over existing cap hit) (unadjusted cap at $121M league wide)

2014 $20.0M (including $6.8M in existing amortization from signing bonus and 2012 restructure) (savings of $1.75M over existing cap hit)(unadjusted cap est. $125M league wide)

2015 $21.25M (unadjusted cap est. $130 league wide) (dead cap $9M, cap savings if cut $9M)

2016 $23.25M (unadjusted cap est. $135M league wide)

2017 $25.25M (unadjusted cap est. $140M+ league wide) dead cap if cut before first day of league year $3M, thereafter until the first week of the season $8M. If not they can hash it out thereafter if they want to continue year to year or if he or they or both are ready to move on at the end of that season.

So Brady's cap hits would be down a total of $9M over the next two years as the cap still rises by $4M and his cap hits would only increase over what they were scheduled to be in 2013-2014 by a total of $9M over the following 3 years when the cap is expected to rise at least $15M.

I know fans are getting so conditioned to flat caps they find it hard to imagine they will ever go up more than a couple of bucks again, but they will. They just won't go up exponentially, as in by double digits, during the life of this CBA. Slow and steady as Kraft says, and that is believed to be in the 4-5% range commencing shortly.