Bedard: Defense is Ready

[RayClay]

Could he be implying that it takes time for a young defense with 3 rookie starters, 5 new starters and a host of injuries and moving parts takes time to gel? What a radical idea.

I don't think so. This has been the case for years, including with the Championship teams. Maybe 2004, they had the confidence to really mix it up early, but it's always been master the basics and add a piece each week until they look like a new defense by December.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

This defense is better than last year's. By a wide margin.

My favorite way of looking is per possession, of course.

Points Per Possession [Defense]:
2011 - 1.9 (21st)
2012 - 1.7 (12th)

Yards Per Possession [Defense]:
2011 - 37.5 (32nd)
2012 - 32 (21st)

Turnovers Per Possession [Defense]:
2011 - .177 (3rd)
2012 - .215 (1st)

Drive Success Rate [Defense]:
2011 - .731 (30th)
2012 - .690 (15th)

And the Patriots offense had more cracks at it this year, too:

Offensive Drives:
2011 - 173
2012 - 180

In fact, if you look at the offensive efficiency stats, the 2012 offense is damn-near identical to the 2011 one.

Offensive Points Per Possession:
2011 - 2.79 (3rd)
2012 - 2.82 (1st)

Offensive Yards Per Possession:
2011 - 39.5 (2nd)
2012 - 39.2 (1st)

Offensive Drive Success Rate:
2011 - .775 (2nd)
2012 - .787 (1st)

The conclusion I would make is that while the offense improved nominally, continuing it's elite efficiency at an extremely high level, the defense improved noticeably. As a result, the offense saw the ball a little more, and scored more in total.

Before this season, the defense had been a detriment to the team's success for the last several seasons. It's metrics were god-awful, and they were only slightly redeemed by causing turnovers at a high rate.

Now, between the improvement in its efficiency and the even further improvement of turning the ball over, the defense - for the first time in a long time - is actually helping this team win.

Thanks for the research/post. It confirms what my eyes tell me, the defense isn't just a bit better than 2011, they are better to a noteworthy degree. While there has been a few games the rush D has fallen down generally it appears to be a top 10 rush D. It sure seems like the 3rd/4th and a yard rush D is as good as it has been in some years (a guess - haven't seen the stats). Ultimately if we look at the stats/ranking and consider the generally porous play during the earlier part of the season (most especially the pass D), it means the D is better than their current ranking (due to averaging).

2011 was a testament to BB/the whole team. The defense was pretty bad (they had their moments though). The receiving group was lesser. The rushing game was not as potent. Yet the Patriots were a play from winning the SB. This year's team appears to be equal or better in just about every aspect (OL??). And while the equation *if team A is better than team B, and team B had X success, then team A should have X+ success* means little during an actual game, if the Patriots encounter relatively similar variables to 2011's post season, logic says they have a favorable chance at an improved outcome.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I don't think so. This has been the case for years, including with the Championship teams. Maybe 2004, they had the confidence to really mix it up early, but it's always been master the basics and add a piece each week until they look like a new defense by December.

Under BB the Patriots win at a higher clip as December approaches/in December -- and that is based on a fairly large sample. This fact suggests you are correct

 

[BradyManny]

And while the equation *if team A is better than team B, and team B had X success, then team A should have X+ success* means little during an actual game, if the Patriots encounter relatively similar variables to 2011's post season, logic says they have a favorable chance at an improved outcome.

I would agree with that - with the caveat that the Niners are a stronger team than the Giants were last year. Unfortunately...