Bedard: Defense is Ready

[Ring 6]

I'm surprised that you do not discount the week 17 Dolphins offense and the shutout. Their bags were packed, tee times scheduled and no fight in those guys at all. The shutout without Talib told me nothing about how he'll be able to play in two weeks.

I hope you are right about Talib (and that others have said Ninkovich will able to go in the playoffs.) Talib is a huge factor in coverage and for the pass rush.

The point about the top 15 offenses is simply that neither of the wins over Miami and Jacksonville should be encouraging as far as the defense goes, at all. Every AFC playoff team is a major step up from those two teams.

You can't discount games out of rankings. Every team has bad opponents, play some when they are hot, some when they are struggling, etc etc.
They went out and made plays. Its silly, IMO, to think the Dolphins showed up and didn't try. Those kind of qualifiers seem to only be used by people with an agenda. Not saying you have one, but that you should see these facts.

 

[JMC00]

The Dolphins also missed a couple of TDs and huge completions due to either Tanneyhill overthrowing or his receivers dropping passes. They complete at least half of those miscues and it's at least two TDs.

Ya and if the Pats hit on their miscues Brady goes 32/38 for 320 yards and probably 4 TD.

The fact is short of an offense just firing on all cylinders miscues are part of every game. It's what you do on top of the miscues and Sunday the defense played well. First shutout in over 3 years. Now it was the Dolphins but still in this NFL it is difficult to get a shut out.

In all the games this season there were only 6 shutouts

San Fran over the jests
Seattle over Arizona
Atlanta over NYG
New England over Miami
NO over TB
Oakland over KC

 

[JMC00]

The point about the top 15 offenses is simply that neither of the wins over Miami and Jacksonville should be encouraging as far as the defense goes, at all. Every AFC playoff team is a major step up from those two teams.

Just a little FYI for you. Pats have played 3 of the top 10 NFL offenses in the league (Denver, Indy and Houston) and beaten them all.

 

[Ring 6]

Just a little FYI for you. Pats have played 3 of the top 10 NFL offenses in the league (Denver, Indy and Houston) and beaten them all.

Handily too

 

[BlueThunder]

I have this feeling that it will be the Pats offense that lets them down (IF a letdown happens)

 

[RIpats88]

if Dennard/Talib are healthy I like our chances against most teams in the AFC...we need those guys playing press-man and McCourty back at safety where he can use his ball skills.

 

[goheels22002]

You can't discount games out of rankings. Every team has bad opponents, play some when they are hot, some when they are struggling, etc etc.
They went out and made plays. Its silly, IMO, to think the Dolphins showed up and didn't try. Those kind of qualifiers seem to only be used by people with an agenda. Not saying you have one, but that you should see these facts.

The regular season is over, so yes, you can discount specific games out of rankings that shed little insight. The only rankings that matter now - especially when you have the luxury of a bye and you and you assess all the possible opponents - are the ones of the surviving teams. The Dolphins and Jags games provide no insight at all.

If the Patriots did not have a bye, this would meaningless becuase we could focus on the opponent in the next game.

Of the three teams that the Pats might face in the divisional game, how would you rank the defenses? My list goes 1) Texans, 2) Ravens, 3) Patriots, 4) Colts. If you want to add Denver to the mix, they leapfrog everybody and become #1. That's how the yards/game rankings would look, but much more discouraging is where the Patriots rank among the five teams in passing yards allowed - whether you include the Jags and Dolphins games or not.

Baltimore's defense is the hardest to judge - lots of good players, but they're old and injured, so who knows what Ravens defense shows up?

Points allowed is interesting since the Texans and the Patriots are dead even at 331 ppg allowed. 2012 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

To Bedard's point, given the possible opponents, how do you rank the defenses? This is critical as the playoffs get underway where the games are lower scoring and all the quarterbacks are competent to good.

 

[slash83]

Talib will be a good matchup vs Thomas if we meet Denver. Last meeting the Pats didnt really have anyone to match up with him, this time we do.

 

[mayoclinic]

Talib will be a good matchup vs Thomas if we meet Denver. Last meeting the Pats didnt really have anyone to match up with him, this time we do.

Or against AJ Green if we play Cincinnati. Or against Torrey Smith if we play Baltimore. And we saw how he did against Andre Johnson, and how the secondary did against Andrew Luck.

The Pats didn't have either Talib/Dennard on the field, or McCourty at safety, when they played Baltimore or Denver earlier this year. They didn't have Chandler Jones at full strength against Houston, and lost Talib for half that game, and they lost Jones at the beginning of the Indy game.

It's not a given that the Pats will be at full strength, but if they are anywhere close, they should be in better shape than when they played some of these teams earlier.

 

[JR4]

...

It's not a given that the Pats will be at full strength, but if they are anywhere close, they should be in better shape than when they played some of these teams earlier.

also the gel factor will mean improvement ... may even be most important.
Even without Talib the secondary has looked more like they are playing like
they are one connected unit ... all on the same page.

 

[patfanken]

I don't been to be repetitive, but its hard to get out of my head the fact that the Pats playoff defense held their opponents to 17pts/game last season. When you compare that defense with the talent we have now its just not even close.

If you consider the position changes of Ninko from OLB to DE, and McCourty for CB to S the only starters last year would be Vince, Mayo, Spikes and Deadrick/Love. Even a lot of the role players are different now like Scott, Francis, Cunningham, Arrington (in the slot), Cole, etc.

If BB and the rocket scientist can get last year's group to play at that level, its not too hard to think that a healthy (relatively) more talented group might reach that level too, regardless of the regular season stats Granted the Pats will have to face better offenses getting to the superbowl, but lets not forget that the Giants were the 5th ranked offense in the league last year....and that patchwork defense created 4 fumbles, and the only one they recovered was overturned by a dumb penalty. (that STILL frustrates me to this day, because if the Pats recover just ONE of them, its a different outcome)

Bottom line, If the Pats D can hold our opposition to under 20 points, I, like most Pats fans, will like our chances. And if what they say about Ninko's injury is true, I can safely say that that goal is now moved from a wild hope to a reasonable expectation.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't been to be repetitive, but its hard to get out of my head the fact that the Pats playoff defense held their opponents to 17pts/game last season. When you compare that defense with the talent we have now its just not even close.

If you consider the position changes of Ninko from OLB to DE, and McCourty for CB to S the only starters last year would be Vince, Mayo, Spikes and Deadrick/Love. Even a lot of the role players are different now like Scott, Francis, Cunningham, Arrington (in the slot), Cole, etc.

If BB and the rocket scientist can get last year's group to play at that level, its not too hard to think that a healthy (relatively) more talented group might reach that level too. Granted the Pats will have to face better offenses getting to the superbowl, but lets not forget that the Giants were the 5th ranked offense in the league last year....and that patchwork defense created 4 fumbles, and the only one they recovered was overturned by a dumb penalty. (that STILL frustrates me to this day, because if the Pats recover just ONE of them, its a different outcome)

Bottom line, If the Pats D can hold our opposition to under 20 points, I, like most Pats fans, will like our chances.

I'm reminded of the famous Grantland article that came out just before last year's Super Bowl:

Bill Belichick, Vince Wilfork, and the New England Patriots defense - Grantland

That article concluded:

Of course, nothing Belichick does will transform the Patriots' defense into a great one; they don't have the talent. But coaching is about more than talent. It's about taking the talent that's available and giving it the best possible chance to succeed. And that's something Belichick does incredibly well. So while this New England team may never be known as a great, or even good, defense, they're hoping to be remembered as something much better: a Super Bowl-winning defense.

Well, this year's defense has a heck of a lot more talent than last year's. Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard. That's a major infusion of talent. Not to mention Scott, Francis, Cunningham and Gregory all playing significant supporting roles. The upgrade in talent from last year's playoff D to this year's is remarkable, and the "nothing Belichick does will transform the Patriot's defense into a great one; they don't have the talent" statement just isn't true any more.

 

[goheels22002]

I don't been to be repetitive, but its hard to get out of my head the fact that the Pats playoff defense held their opponents to 17pts/game last season. When you compare that defense with the talent we have now its just not even close.

If you consider the position changes of Ninko from OLB to DE, and McCourty for CB to S the only starters last year would be Vince, Mayo, Spikes and Deadrick/Love. Even a lot of the role players are different now like Scott, Francis, Cunningham, Arrington (in the slot), Cole, etc.

The 17 ppg in the playoffs is deceiving. The Patriots opened with the Tim Tebow Broncos, so 17 ppg would have been hard to reach (the Broncos scored 10.) They dodged Roethlisberger and the Steelers and the Texans who were good until Schaub went down. Peyton Manning was having his 4th neck surgery to reattach his beach ball to his torso, and they got the defense-first Ravens at home. If it weren't for Marquise Cole and Billy Cundiff, the Ravens would have added a few points to the ppg and possibly bounced the Pats, again.

The Giants barely made the playoffs and if the Pats had just stopped the drive rather than let Ahmad Bradshaw sit down on the goal line, the ppg would have been 15 in the playoffs. Basically the Pats dodged all the decent offenses in the NFL last year.

Probably not the case in 2012-2013. I see the Texans, Broncos and Seahawks in the crystal ball - all of which can torch the Pats if they are not at the top of their game.

 

[mayoclinic]

I see the Texans (14 points), Broncos (21 points) and Seahawks (24 points) in the crystal ball - all of which can torch the Pats if they are not at the top of their game.

Edit it for you. Those 3 teams averaged 19.6 PPG against us during the regular season. Seattle and Denver played us before our secondary was established, Denver also played us without Hightower, Houston played us with Cunningham out and Jones barely back and still hobbled, and Talib missed half the game (and 7 points came in garbage time, as did 14 of Denver's points). Seattle's offense has admittedly significantly improved.

 

[Bman12]

I hope the defense will be ready! They sure need to be!

 

[JMC00]

Marquise Cole

Try again.

I see the Texans, Broncos and Seahawks in the crystal ball - all of which can torch the Pats if they are not at the top of their game.

Well let's see Patriots torched the Broncos when the Pats defense was bad.

Texans have torched exactly one team since Week 7.

Seahawks will be bounced by the Redskins. They are one of the worst teams on the road (have the same record as the Jets on the road). Their three wins were @Carolina, @Chicago (OT) and @Buffalo (but in Toronto in a dome)

Ya they blew out the Cardinals (who peaked against the Pats in Week 2) and the 49ers at home but that was such a classic trap game for the 49ers.

But that team especially that defense seems like the type that will buy into the media hype of themselves. After they beat the Pats they bought into their hype and lost @SF and @DET and had a close one when Minnesota went up there. Beat the Jets by 21, had a bye and then went to Miami and let Tannenhill absolutely abuse them in the 4th quarter.

 

[goheels22002]

Edit it for you. Those 3 teams averaged 19.6 PPG against us during the regular season. Seattle and Denver played us before our secondary was established, Houston played us with Cunningham out and Jones barely back and still hobbled, and Talib missed half the game (and 7 points came in garbage time, as did 14 of Denver's points). Seattle's offense has admittedly significantly improved.

No thanks. The Pats surrender 20.7 ppg as it is and they averaged 26.3 ppg (Broncos), 23.8 (Texans) and 23.3 (Seahawks) in 2012 - all NFL top ten in ppg. All three of those teams can score points.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Offensive Points per Game (Estimated) on TeamRankings.com

I am astonished by all the love this board is giving the Patriots defense this week. I hope you guys are right. Oh, and sorry about the misspelling of Marquise Cole - it should be Mycheese Cole.

 

[Deus Irae]

No thanks. The Pats surrender 20.7 ppg as it is and they averaged 26.3 ppg (Broncos), 23.8 (Texans) and 23.3 (Seahawks) in 2012 - all NFL top ten in ppg. All three of those teams can score points.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Offensive Points per Game (Estimated) on TeamRankings.com

I am astonished by all the love this board is giving the Patriots defense this week. I hope you guys are right.

Why on Earth would you be astonished by the love the board is giving the Patriots? The offense is playing at an all-time sort of level in terms of points scored. The defense is much improved since Talib's arrival. The coaching is the best in the NFL.

We can nitpick and, given that this is a message board, we probably should, but let's not kid ourselves about this team. This isn't last season, where we knew the defense was an albatross. The Patriots are the best team in the AFC, and they're in the top 1-3 teams in the NFL.

 

[JMC00]

I am astonished by all the love this board is giving the Patriots defense this week. I hope you guys are right. Oh, and sorry about the misspelling of Marquise Cole - it should be Mycheese Cole.

Well it was hard for Marquice Cole to make a play vs the Ravens in the playoffs last year as he was still technically with the Jets.

 

[goheels22002]

Why on Earth would you be astonished by the love the board is giving the Patriots? The offense is playing at an all-time sort of level in terms of points scored. The defense is much improved since Talib's arrival. The coaching is the best in the NFL.

We can nitpick and, given that this is a message board, we probably should, but let's not kid ourselves about this team. This isn't last season, where we knew the defense was an albatross. The Patriots are the best team in the AFC, and they're in the top 1-3 teams in the NFL.

I am not astonished by the love shown for the offense, coaching, ownership, etc. I am astonished by the love for the Patriots' defense. It's as if this defense is a stone cold lock to stop the AFC playoff contenders in the next round and beyond, but I have not yet ordered a cup of that kool-aid after a shutout of the listless Dolphins and solid defensive performance of the the impotent Jags.

The defense has evolved and it is definitely improved with Talib manning one corner and Dennard the other, with McCourty and Gregory at safety. But Talib's hip, and Dennard's injuries put the Patriots in jeopardy of fielding the same secondary that was torched by the likes of Sanchez, Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco.

If the Patriots offense does not race out to a huge lead, we saw, just three weeks ago, how fast a competent offense can light up this defense. A couple of good defensive performances against non-playoff caliber teams has not won me over.

People were encouraged by the 28-point comeback. So was I. But I was even more discouraged at how fast this Patriots team dug the hole out of which they could not climb.