Bedard: Defense is Ready

[mayoclinic]

I understand your cynicism, Mayo, but he's trying to inform a fan base who seems to rate players on a play by play basis. Bedard is a valuable teaching tool, so that fans can understand that football is NOT a game of individuals, but a game where 11 people's success are integrally interrelated.

Its important in the creation of a well informed fan base that they understand this basic, but often forgotten concept. Its also important that fans understand that a team is not a static unit, but something that evolves a great deal AFTER it leave TC. This is something Pats SHOULD understand more than most.

That's the key point in Beddard's article is that the defense that had some fans wringing their hands at the beginning of season, was a work in progress due to the extreme youth of the group. Some of us understood this but we were in a distinct minority. The defense that we had then is NOT the same one we have now, and Bedard tries to explain to some degree what the process was.

As fans its important the we understand that there IS a plan, and that the plan is on track. What is so exciting to me in seeing this defense evolve is how much better it will get over the next few years as these extremely young players add experience to their raw talents.

I'm not anti-Bedard, just a bit frustrated that he's stating the obvious, and that he blows so hot-and-cold. I expect that stuff from others, but Bedard's disappointed me a bit in that regard.

BB talks each season about "climbing the mountain". The NFL season is an incredibly long one, and the teams that come out of training camp bear little resemblance to the teams in December and beyond. The season is a war of attrition as much as a war with the other 31 teams, and managing the roster under the salary cap and NFL constraints is a juggling act. We've talked about that:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...982221-mountain-climbing-salary-cap-era.html

Some of the things that many people have stated/predicted, going back to the pre-season and over the course of the regular season:

1. This was a young team with a lot of new parts on both offense and defense, new coordinators, and a lot of injuries that derailed continuity. It would take time for things to gel, on both sides of the ball.

2. The hot start by Houston was a classic example of a team peaking too soon, and that they would come down to earth and possibly fade down the stretch.

3. The 9-2 Baltimore Ravens were a mirage, and would collapse against a tough late season schedule.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...er-why-ravens-pretenders-not-contenders.html

4. The pass defense would significantly improve by the end of the season/beginning of the playoffs, in part due to #1, and more so due to McCourty moving to FS and Talib/Dennard emerging at outside CB, with a domino effect on the defense.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ass-defense-about-go-terrible-very-good.html

5. The running game would emerge as a significant component of the offense and would be the best in years.

No one who knew what they were talking about expected instant results or immediate success. I'm sure BB didn't. The media - including Bedard - is as guilty as some of the fan base in terms of taking a short term view of things and making "snap judgments" (to use one well known mediot's term) based on the last game. Bedard talked about the Talib trade as a "desperation move", and we got to hear Curran, Felger, Mazz and others blast the team after every loss (all 4 of them) and some of the wins when they didn't blow people out of the water. So it seems just a bit hypocritical to me for Bedard to me jumping on the "the defense is ready, gee, it just took a season for it to mature" bandwagon. He's a johnny-come lately on that front, even if he may be serving a useful educational function.

 

[goheels22002]

Bedard's story is a nice rose-tinted glasses way to enter another bye-week stretch where we fool ourselves into thinking that the defense is somehow going to hold any of these playoff teams to 20.7 points.

The offense is going to have to keep turnovers to one or less and put 27+ on the board to win the upcoming games. It's Houston, Baltimore or Indianapolis in the divisional round and all three have QBs who have seen the Patriots up close and can take advantage of the secondary.

I am not optimistic about the defense in the playoffs.

 

[mayoclinic]

Bedard's story is a nice rose-tinted glasses way to enter another bye-week stretch where we fool ourselves into thinking that the defense is somehow going to hold any of these playoff teams to 20.7 points.

The offense is going to have to keep turnovers to one or less and put 27+ on the board to win the upcoming games. It's Houston, Baltimore or Indianapolis in the divisional round and all three have QBs who have seen the Patriots up close and can take advantage of the secondary.

I am not optimistic about the defense in the playoffs.

The defense held Houston to 14 points, of which 7 came in garbage time with a short field on a Mallett interception,. And the defense - at a time when it was not nearly as good as it is new - held Denver to 21 points, 14 of which came when the game was out of reach. Those are by far the two best AFC offenses that the Pats may face in the playoffs. They shut down Indy and Andrew Luck after the first quarter.

The offense needs to keep turnovers at 1 or less because a bunch of turnovers puts your own defense on the defensive too much, and blows too many scoring opportunities. But if the offense limits its own mistakes, the defense will do its part.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Since Talib joined the team, the Pats have allowed...

-6.8 yards per pass and would place them 10th
-Opposing passer rating of 75.3 which would place them 4th
-17.5ppg which would place them 4th

He certainly hasn't been the singular reason but there is no question that over the last 7 games the D is playing at a pretty high level.

What's most remarkable is that in a significant number of those games and minutes, Talib was out of the game not on the field playing CB!

Truly a miraculous player!

 

[BTTA]

What's most remarkable is that in a significant number of those games and minutes, Talib was out of the game not on the field playing CB!

It's the locker room presence, apparently.

 

[Mack Herron]

What's most remarkable is that in a significant number of those games and minutes, Talib was out of the game not on the field playing CB!

Truly a miraculous player!

There are many reason for the improvement in the defense besides Talib and the domino effect of moving McCourty to S and Arrington to the slot. Lesser personnel spikes include the emergence of Francis and the return of Chung (not your favorite, I know, but he is contributing). They are playing much better team defense and perhaps the most obvious change is that the coaches are doing things we didn't see at the beginning of the year. If Talib, Spikes, Ninko and Mayo are reasonably healthy, this is a very different defense than the one that took the field in Sept.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I poked fun at Chung for sport but I thought he was decent in the Miami game. Good contribution.

Of course this is a much matured defense than the young squad who took the field after Labor Day.

 

[RobertWeathers]

What's most remarkable is that in a significant number of those games and minutes, Talib was out of the game not on the field playing CB!

Truly a miraculous player!

Yep! Certainly the improvement cannot solely be attributed to Talib's arrival and I do think the expansion of the defensive playbook has a lot to do with it.

 

[Fixit]

Bedard's story is a nice rose-tinted glasses way to enter another bye-week stretch where we fool ourselves into thinking that the defense is somehow going to hold any of these playoff teams to 20.7 points.

The offense is going to have to keep turnovers to one or less and put 27+ on the board to win the upcoming games. It's Houston, Baltimore or Indianapolis in the divisional round and all three have QBs who have seen the Patriots up close and can take advantage of the secondary.

Right. It's not like last year's defense, which wasn't as good as this one, held opponents to 17ppg in the playoffs.

This is amazing to me. This defense:

* finishes in the top 10 in points allowed
* is one of the best points allowed defenses in the league in the second half of the season
* has shown obvious improvement in all phases
* added the one player (Talib) they needed to solidify the secondary and put McCourty, Arrington, and Dennard where they're most effective
* is healthy

... and people are still whining.

 

[aluminum seats]

Bedard's story is a nice rose-tinted glasses way to enter another bye-week stretch where we fool ourselves into thinking that the defense is somehow going to hold any of these playoff teams to 20.7 points.

The offense is going to have to keep turnovers to one or less and put 27+ on the board to win the upcoming games. It's Houston, Baltimore or Indianapolis in the divisional round and all three have QBs who have seen the Patriots up close and can take advantage of the secondary.

I am not optimistic about the defense in the playoffs.

I think your view is too negative. You can be realistic about this defense's shortfalls while still being reasonably optimistic about how it's trending. Nevertheless, in any given playoff game, the offense might have to score 27 or more to win, no question--not a bad offense to acheive that though, right?

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Unusual way the game started? Ya think the other team had something to do with that 31-3 first half+ pounding they delivered on NE...at home.
As far as your Seahawks/SF next game analogy...you fail to recognize that Seattle was on a 3 game 'take no mercy" tour averaging 50 pts/game and just abusing any team they faced. When you can quantify that playing against NE is a more arduous task physically than playing any other team in the NFL, come back with this argument that SF was flat for a reason ...or NE was flat for a reason after playing Houston. Here in the world of Pats good/World bad, I guess the only way NE can lose is if they step on their own toes. Guess winning 3 consecutive playoff games against tough opponents is out of the question due to the inevitable flatness.
And I'm still trying to understand why so much energy was exerted vs Houston in a game they controlled throughout with Houston shutting down with a quarter to go. Is it more tiring to oppose a team that just goes through the motions?
As far as the great points against the Pats D has delivered in 5 of the last 6, are you guys really puffing your chests over the twin Miami killings, the NYJ, the Jags. And lets be honest, Schaub has been AWFUL in his last 4 games...combining for a total of ONE TD. None of the teams are capable of attacking the Patriots one achilles heal....the over the top deep pass that Seattle and Baltimore and SF all exploited with ease. Think back to this weeks Miami game. The WRs were routinely open deep but Tannehill missed badly on every shot.
Hey, I'm thrilled the Pats pitched a shutout....never thought I'd see that this year. But if memory serves me correctly, BB has routinely crushed week 17 opponents that have nothing to play for. Great coaches get the job done. But as we have seen in the past half dozen years, playoffs teams become playoff teams because they can exploit teams weaknesses....and I expect deep bombs from Flacco and Manning....if they are smart

You put a lot of effort into making a comically bad post.

 

[patfanken]

Since Talib joined the team, the Pats have allowed...

-6.8 yards per pass and would place them 10th
-Opposing passer rating of 75.3 which would place them 4th
-17.5ppg which would place them 4th

He certainly hasn't been the singular reason but there is no question that over the last 7 games the D is playing at a pretty high level.

What makes those numbers even more impressive is that Talib has either missed or has been physically limited in close to half those games

 

[goheels22002]

Right. It's not like last year's defense, which wasn't as good as this one, held opponents to 17ppg in the playoffs.

This is amazing to me. This defense:

* finishes in the top 10 in points allowed
* is one of the best points allowed defenses in the league in the second half of the season
* has shown obvious improvement in all phases
* added the one player (Talib) they needed to solidify the secondary and put McCourty, Arrington, and Dennard where they're most effective
* is healthy

... and people are still whining.

I like a good whine on New Year's Day. I disagree with a couple of things you like about this defense. They did finish top 10 in points allowed, but that jump from 17th after week 15 was due to two putrid offensive outputs by the Jags and Dolphins in the last two games. Neither is playoff caliber.

Second, watching Aquib Talib run around holding his hip does little for the feint of heart. It would feel a little better if Talib and Dennard were 100%, but they are not. If the Patriots are back to McCourty at a corner with Gregory and Chung at Safety, the playoffs will be shootouts.

Also, let's be clear about who the Patriots' pass defense will face in the playoffs - Luck, Flacco, Schaub and/or Manning (the Bengals will not make the AFCC, so forget them.) Each has multiple weapons in their passing games including running backs who can create problems. All four have played the Patriots this year removing lack of familiarity with the personnel and scheme as an advantage for the Patriots.

All four are top 15 in the NFL in yards/game. 2012 NFL Passing - Pro-Football-Reference.com

The only one that is surprisingly bad is Flacco, who is also the only one to beat the Patriots. Flacco has regressed badly since we saw him light the Pats up with 3 TDs on 382 yards on 28-39 passing. He has not come close to those numbers since. (The more I look at the Ravens, the more I want them to beat the Colts and for the Bungles to head to Denver.)

The stuff that haunts me is the way guys like Kaepernick, Flacco and Russell Wilson lit up the Patriots. Kaepernick was only three weeks ago.

 

[patfanken]

First an apology to PWP for restating his well articulated post. I guess I should have read the entire thread before I responded.

I'm not anti-Bedard, just a bit frustrated that he's stating the obvious, and that he blows so hot-and-cold. I expect that stuff from others, but Bedard's disappointed me a bit in that regard.

Brother Mayo, what is obvious to YOU, is clearly not obvious many in the fan base who are influenced by the mediots on TV and radio. But you are correct to point out Bedard's inconsistency from going to claim Talib was a desperation move, to the Defense is OK now. But between you and me, if the Talib trade wasn't made at all, I think this defense would have showed marked improvement.

I mean someone in this thread pointed out that last season's defense held their playoff opponents to just 17/game. Do you realize how amazing that is when you consider who was actually out there playing. The talent out there THIS season has massively improved, but just not used to playing with each other, which is a much underrated facet to good defense.

Just compare a starting secondary of Talib, McCourty, Gregory, and Denard, with McCourty, Ihedigbu, Chung, and Arrington...playing on the outside. This year the top DB from last season (Chung) is now safety depth. You take Arrington from the outside where he's a liability, to the slot CB where he is an asset. And because you have players who can man up, and depth all across the secondary, you can be much more creative with what is done with the front seven Its really so cool.

So I understand that you knew that it was going to be a slow progression to get there, but not everyone sees it this way. Too many fans (see the gameday thread) are judging on a play by play basis.

No one who knew what they were talking about expected instant results or immediate success. I'm sure BB didn't. The media - including Bedard - is as guilty as some of the fan base in terms of taking a short term view of things and making "snap judgments" (to use one well known mediot's term) based on the last game. Bedard talked about the Talib trade as a "desperation move", and we got to hear Curran, Felger, Mazz and others blast the team after every loss (all 4 of them) and some of the wins when they didn't blow people out of the water. So it seems just a bit hypocritical to me for Bedard to me jumping on the "the defense is ready, gee, it just took a season for it to mature" bandwagon. He's a johnny-come lately on that front, even if he may be serving a useful educational function.

Preaching to the choir here as far as the media here. But I'm a lot less critical of Bedard than you. I think he provides a critical function with his breakdowns. I think he's earned the right to be wrong (as in the Talib being a "desperation move") Hell, I'm still waiting for Ron Brace's breakthrough year 4 years later We all are wrong once in a while ( of course except for Ray Ray and DI, )

 

[Ring 6]

I like a good whine on New Year's Day. I disagree with a couple of things you like about this defense. They did finish top 10 in points allowed, but that jump from 17th after week 15 was due to two putrid offensive outputs by the Jags and Dolphins in the last two games. Neither is playoff caliber.

And no other team played 16 playoff caliber teams. All 32 teams allowed points vs good teams and bad, almost always allowing less to the bad teams and more to the good teams.
You don't have to adjust rankings for that it is already taken into account.

Second, watching Aquib Talib run around holding his hip does little for the feint of heart. It would feel a little better if Talib and Dennard were 100%, but they are not. If the Patriots are back to McCourty at a corner with Gregory and Chung at Safety, the playoffs will be shootouts

.
Well, we just had a shutout with that lineup, and Talib was an active DNP who played some the week before, so he should be fine.

Also, let's be clear about who the Patriots' pass defense will face in the playoffs - Luck, Flacco, Schaub and/or Manning (the Bengals will not make the AFCC, so forget them.) Each has multiple weapons in their passing games including running backs who can create problems. All four have played the Patriots this year removing lack of familiarity with the personnel and scheme as an advantage for the Patriots.

We beat 3 of the 4 and lost the 4th by 1 point in a horribly officiated game.
Which of those teams do you think we surprised by running our defense that has been in place for 12 years?

All four are top 15 in the NFL in yards/game. 2012 NFL Passing - Pro-Football-Reference.com

I guess its good we have a 9th in points allowed defense then,

The only one that is surprisingly bad is Flacco, who is also the only one to beat the Patriots. Flacco has regressed badly since we saw him light the Pats up with 3 TDs on 382 yards on 28-39 passing. He has not come close to those numbers since. (The more I look at the Ravens, the more I want them to beat the Colts and for the Bungles to head to Denver.)

The stuff that haunts me is the way guys like Kaepernick, Flacco and Russell Wilson lit up the Patriots. Kaepernick was only three weeks ago.

Welcome to the NFL in 2012. 90% of the teams can pass effectively against 90% of the teams.

 

[goheels22002]

And no other team played 16 playoff caliber teams. All 32 teams allowed points vs good teams and bad, almost always allowing less to the bad teams and more to the good teams.
You don't have to adjust rankings for that it is already taken into account.

Well, we just had a shutout with that lineup, and Talib was an active DNP who played some the week before, so he should be fine.

We beat 3 of the 4 and lost the 4th by 1 point in a horribly officiated game.
Which of those teams do you think we surprised by running our defense that has been in place for 12 years?

I guess its good we have a 9th in points allowed defense then. Welcome to the NFL in 2012. 90% of the teams can pass effectively against 90% of the teams.

I'm surprised that you do not discount the week 17 Dolphins offense and the shutout. Their bags were packed, tee times scheduled and no fight in those guys at all. The shutout without Talib told me nothing about how he'll be able to play in two weeks.

I hope you are right about Talib (and that others have said Ninkovich will able to go in the playoffs.) Talib is a huge factor in coverage and for the pass rush.

The point about the top 15 offenses is simply that neither of the wins over Miami and Jacksonville should be encouraging as far as the defense goes, at all. Every AFC playoff team is a major step up from those two teams.

 

[JMC00]

Also, let's be clear about who the Patriots' pass defense will face in the playoffs - Luck, Flacco, Schaub and/or Manning

Yep and three of them lost to this defense. Well actually let me be more clear. Luck and Schaub lost to this defense, Manning lost to a different and worse defense. I would also venture to say Flacco would not do as well this time around as he did in the beginning of the season.

You do remember what this defense did to Schaub and Luck in the last month, right?

 

[JMC00]

The stuff that haunts me is the way guys like Kaepernick, Flacco and Russell Wilson lit up the Patriots. Kaepernick was only three weeks ago.

out of kaepernick's 16 drives 5 of them started inside the NE 40. Threw 2 TD and the other TD was from a turnover return that put them on the 1 where Gore ran it in. They got the FG when Pats went for it and turned it over on downs which put them in FG position.

49ers got the ball 5 times in NE territory 3 TD & 1 FG. I don't care if you have the best defense it's hard for any defense to overcome that stuff. 1 of the TD wasn't even kaepernick it was Arrington not wrapping crabtree up properly.

Pats get the ball 5 times in an opponents territory. I'll bet anything they would get at least 28-35 points.

How about the 8 drives were the Pats forced a punt or got a takeaway.

Special teams does their job and Dennard doesn't go out injured and I'd say there is a decent chance Pats win that game.

 

[Ring 6]

out of kaepernick's 16 drives 5 of them started inside the NE 40. Threw 2 TD and the other TD was from a turnover return that put them on the 1 where Gore ran it in. They got the FG when Pats went for it and turned it over on downs which put them in FG position.

49ers got the ball 5 times in NE territory 3 TD & 1 FG. I don't care if you have the best defense it's hard for any defense to overcome that stuff. 1 of the TD wasn't even kaepernick it was Arrington not wrapping crabtree up properly.

Pats get the ball 5 times in an opponents territory. I'll bet anything they would get at least 28-35 points.

How about the 8 drives were the Pats forced a punt or got a takeaway.
Special teams does their job and Dennard doesn't go out injured and I'd say there is a decent chance Pats win that game.

there were also 8 fumbles, 7 recovered by SF

We may be the best team in NFL at not turning over the ball, and definitely are over the long range. We turned it over 4 times and were tied 35-35 before allowing a 65 yard KO return. That is the worst case scenario come to life.

 

[condon84]

I'm surprised that you do not discount the week 17 Dolphins offense and the shutout. Their bags were packed, tee times scheduled and no fight in those guys at all. The shutout without Talib told me nothing about how he'll be able to play in two weeks.

I hope you are right about Talib (and that others have said Ninkovich will able to go in the playoffs.) Talib is a huge factor in coverage and for the pass rush.

The point about the top 15 offenses is simply that neither of the wins over Miami and Jacksonville should be encouraging as far as the defense goes, at all. Every AFC playoff team is a major step up from those two teams.

The Dolphins also missed a couple of TDs and huge completions due to either Tanneyhill overthrowing or his receivers dropping passes. They complete at least half of those miscues and it's at least two TDs.

Still though, it's easy to see even without looking at stats that our defense is playing a lot better. Not only that, but they're being aggressive and forcing offenses to react to what they're doing.