Are these Patriots free agents worth the following?

[chasa]

Dorsett i think is gone.

He couldnt get on the field when gordon was here, and when gordon was gone he barely saw the ball. Had a huge catch in the playoffs but ultimately hes vet minimum at best.

Trey flowers isnt worth top 5 money, that said hes a beast and i hope he comes back.

Trent brown needs to stick around if we keep drafting OL that get hurt and miss the season on IR.

ill take another season of the mccourty twins please.

Ghost was ghost. missed a kick in the superbowl, but it ultimately didnt matter.

 

[Ivan]

I can't make this too complicated with how long the deal is, the guarantee, etc., so let's just go with the annual salary. Please go with a yes/no and feel free to add an explanation.

Trey Flowers
Is he worth $17.5M, roughly the current franchise tag for defensive ends? Not asking if they would franchise him, but the tag amount itself represents top-5 DE value.

Trent Brown
Is he worth $12.5M, roughly the reported amount the Patriots offered Nate Solder last year?

Jason McCourty
Is he worth $5.5M? He made $3M this year but will surely command more on the open market at this position.

Cordarrelle Patterson
Is he worth $5M, a little more than what he made the past two seasons? Undoubtedly other teams will be interested.

Stephen Gostkowski
Is he worth $4.5M? That's elite kicker range, and someone will pay it.

Phillip Dorsett
Is he worth $3M? He may be able to develop further and play a larger role.

Chris Hogan
Is he worth $3M? He is 30 and does not appear to be trending in the right direction.

Malcom Brown
Is he worth $3M? He has not lived up to expectations but is a contributor.

Eric Rowe
Is he worth $2.5M? He is a competent player at a competitive position, and his stock is low.

Ryan Allen
Is he worth $2.5M? He has been very good and probably commands top money at the position.


BONUS

Rob Gronkowski
Is he worth $12M if he decides to continue playing? Releasing him would only be a dead cap hit of $2M. Supposing they restructure his deal, is he worth $8M? What is he worth?

Dwayne Allen
Is he worth $4.5M? There is no dead cap hit from releasing him from his current salary at $7M, which is a likely move. They would need to restructure.

Julian Edelman
Julian Edelman forgets who he is, believes he is Antonio Brown, and texts Bill "pay up bro, or imma do me". Is he worth $8.5M for one year with incentives? He is currently at $5.5, a massive discount.

Danny Amendola
The Dolphins cut Danny Amendola. Is he worth $3M for another year?

Tom Brady
Giselle's career bombs and Tom's fitness program is investigated by the FDA...leaving him penniless and living on the streets. He demands $40M for 2019. Deal?

Flowers-No at 17.5, too much. I would go 4-60-45 guaranteed. If that doesn’t get it done then they will have to find another way to get pressure.

T.Brown-Yes at 12.5, that’s a decent deal for a really good LT.

J. McCourty-Yes at 5.5. 2 years 11million no guaranteed $.

C. Patterson-No at 5 million, I really like Patterson but I wouldn’t go over 2-8 million.

S. Gostkowski-Yes at 4.5. but I would go 3 years 12 million all guaranteed to cut it back by guaranteeing all of it.

P. Dorsett-No at 3 million. He’s a 4-5 receiver, they should come cheaper than that.

C. Hogan-Adios

M. Brown-Absolutely at 3 Million, but I think it will take at least 6-7 a season to sign him.

E. Rowe-Adios, simply not a good player.

R. Allen-Yes at 2.5, really reliable punter, well worth it.

Gronk-Yes at 12 million. Pay the man, I would be willing to bet he would have a much better season next year, and he’s been underpaid for years.

D. Allen-No at 4.5. He’s a blocker, period. 2.5 is the most he is worth. If he could catch it would be a different story, but he clearly can’t.

Edelman, under contract.

Amendola-Yes at 3 million. He may be a role player but he’s as clutch as it gets.

T. Brady, under contract, and I expect his next deal to be like the one Brees signed, 2 Yrs., 50 million.

 

[upstater1]

Yes to all of them except for Flowers and Trent Brown.

Knock them down a few million each. Trent at $10m and Flowers at $14.5m.

Yes to all of them, but Eric Rowe doesn't get a bonus, and can be cut.

 

[Gronkowski123]

Pay Brown. Franchise Flowers, can't let our best defensive lineman walk. The line is already average.

 

[Gronkowski123]

J-mac isn't going anywhere.

 

[jah]

Trent Brown is taking $15M a year minimum so it doesn't matter how anyone feels about him at 12.5.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Id say they are worth those numbers given the current market and could probably score that somewhere. Whether we would be willing to pay them is another story.

This will be one of the more interesting seasons pre fa to see who of those will stay, its hard to call alot of them.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

I think Amendola is an interesting option, hes suited for the Pat's system and the way they used him, I'd like to see him back for another year, hes not to old.

 

[HailHydra]

I don't think that either Flowers or Brown come back. I think that our pass rush success in the playoffs was more so a matter of scheme and secondary than D-Line talent. Wynn was beating out Brown in training camp last year - you have to go with him with Brown's current interest.

 

[mgteich]

I can't make this too complicated with how long the deal is, the guarantee, etc., so let's just go with the annual salary. Please go with a yes/no and feel free to add an explanation.
=======
Trey Flowers
Is he worth $17.5M, roughly the current franchise tag for defensive ends? Not asking if they would franchise him, but the tag amount itself represents top-5 DE value.

No.
========
Trent Brown
Is he worth $12.5M, roughly the reported amount the Patriots offered Nate Solder last year?

Yes. An OL is injured every year. It is worth the money to have 6 starting level players.
======

Jason McCourty
Is he worth $5.5M? He made $3M this year but will surely command more on the open market at this position.

Yes, but I don't think that it will take this much. I would note the Jones is not listed. We should tender him at the first or second level). "Overpaying" McCourty and Jones a million apiece is fine with me. It would solidify the cornerback situation, and one of the best secondaries in the league. I expect Devin to come back if Jason is re-signed.
=============

Cordarrelle Patterson
Is he worth $5M, a little more than what he made the past two seasons? Undoubtedly other teams will be interested.

No. The question is what it will take to sign him. I can't see him being worth $5M to anyone.
========

Stephen Gostkowski
Is he worth $4.5M? That's elite kicker range, and someone will pay it.

Yes, and even more. We may need to franchise him, as we did with Vinatieri the last time we were in this situation.

Phillip Dorsett
Is he worth $3M? He may be able to develop further and play a larger role.

I'd be Ok with that, but we should be able to get him for a bit less.

Chris Hogan
Is he worth $3M? He is 30 and does not appear to be trending in the right direction.

No; he's not worth giving an offer.
====================
Malcom Brown
Is he worth $3M? He has not lived up to expectations but is a contributor.

Yes, but Belichick could choose Shelton instead for the same money.
=====
Eric Rowe
Is he worth $2.5M? He is a competent player at a competitive position, and his stock is low.

No. I used to like Rowe, but I think that his time is passed. However, if we can't re-sign McCourty, I would sign Rowe.

Since I would re-sign J McCourty and tender J Jones, there is no need for Rowe. We would bring back Gilmore, Jackson, McCourty, Jones, Crossen and Dawson (our playoff corners).

========================
Ryan Allen
Is he worth $2.5M? He has been very good and probably commands top money at the position.

Yes, and more if necessary.
==================

BONUS

Rob Gronkowski
Is he worth $12M if he decides to continue playing? Releasing him would only be a dead cap hit of $2M. Supposing they restructure his deal, is he worth $8M? What is he worth?

No, I would not give Gronk a major raise to $12M. if he wants to continue at this contract level, then fine. In any case, no action is needed early since he isn't a free agent.
=========
Dwayne Allen
Is he worth $4.5M? There is no dead cap hit from releasing him from his current salary at $7M, which is a likely move. They would need to restructure.

We should sign Allan to an extension, probably making him the highest blocking TE in the league, and well worth it.
==============

Julian Edelman
Julian Edelman forgets who he is, believes he is Antonio Brown, and texts Bill "pay up bro, or imma do me". Is he worth $8.5M for one year with incentives? He is currently at $5.5, a massive discount.

Edelman might be extended.
===================

Danny Amendola
The Dolphins cut Danny Amendola. Is he worth $3M for another year?

Sure.
=====
Tom Brady
Giselle's career bombs and Tom's fitness program is investigated by the FDA...leaving him penniless and living on the streets. He demands $40M for 2019. Deal?

 

[bormio]

If they weren’t offering $3 mil for DA after 2017, doubt they will in 2019.

 

[supafly]

I think Flowers stays here and gets paid a fair market value. I think that is somewhere in the 13-14m dollar a year range.

Trent Brown is worth 12-13m a year, too, but I’d be leery of a long term deal due to some of the issues that plagued him before such as weight and inconsistency.

Malcolm Brown is worth keeping, yes. 4m a year, though. Nothing more.

No way that I’d pay McCourty 6m a year. As many have pointed out, something around 50% of this seems fair, maybe 4m tops.

I think Patterson is a nice piece to have in terms of some special teams ability and occasional “trick play” such as a jet sweep or whatever, but he’s not worth more than 4m a year. I think something close to a 25% increase from this past year is more than fair.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I think Flowers stays here and gets paid a fair market value. I think that is somewhere in the 13-14m dollar a year range.

I hope you’re right about Flowers. I think I may have put the number too high at 17.5M and would have generated better debate with something closer to $14M. As to what he’ll actually get for an offer, it’s hard to tell. He doesn’t have the big sack numbers but is certainly on many teams radars.

PFF has a projected five year, $80M deal, which is $16M per year, and the 6th best free agent. NFL.com has him ranked as the 5th best free agent. Most sites have him anywhere from 2nd to 8th overall, though a lot of players ahead of him may be franchised.

Chandler Jones got just over $16M a few years ago - which was way over what this forum expected - and I do think teams pay through the nose for Patriots (Collins, Solder, Butler, Ryan come to mind recently); the cap is higher now. In general I think we tend to underestimate the free agency market a lot of the time. Just last year we lost all those players and everyone was surprised again at the offers they got. Defensive Ends tend to really break the bank. Mack is at 23.5M (!). Donald is at 22.5M. Miller is at 19M.

Olivier Vernon is at 17M and signed in 2016 with the Giants. That’s the deal that concerns me the most, as Vernon also wasn’t a high sack total guy but has a had a lot of versatility and very good all around game, kind of a similar to Flowers...even their height and weight are almost identical. I could see Flowers getting a deal like Vernon’s, and this is three years later with a higher cap.

If Flowers is closer to the $13-14M range, that would be awesome, and I think he re-signs.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Can’t think of many players I’d want for 17M+

Can you imagine how many quality pieces that buys ?

That's well said.
Nobody! doesn't like Flowers but 17m, from BB, for a D player, it better mean he is a flat out conspicuous difference maker. Flowers may have that in him but I don't think he fits that description yet.

That's a lot riding on one player especially when you consider that kind of money potentially buys 3 relatively effective D players (especially when the Patriots offer players a top chance for a ring while also the opp to prove to next year's market "I'm a top player who deserves a sold multi year"). And given the reality of injury, having multiple relatively effective positions filled often is the wisest move over that one high priced star, IMHO.

 

[Deus Irae]

Phillip Dorsett
Is he worth $3M? He may be able to develop further and play a larger role.

Chris Hogan
Is he worth $3M? He is 30 and does not appear to be trending in the right direction.

Keep one. The salary number will work itself out.

Malcom Brown
Is he worth $3M? He has not lived up to expectations but is a contributor.

He's a rotational/backup level player at this point. He's worth rotational/backup level money.

Eric Rowe
Is he worth $2.5M? He is a competent player at a competitive position, and his stock is low.

I wish him all the best as he goes elsewhere to continue his career.

Ryan Allen
Is he worth $2.5M? He has been very good and probably commands top money at the position.

Unless there's a tremendously talented left-footer booming them in college, bringing him back would seem to be a no-brainer.

 

[supafly]

That's well said.
Nobody! doesn't like Flowers but 17m, from BB, for a D player, it better mean he is a flat out conspicuous difference maker. Flowers may have that in him but I don't think he fits that description yet.

That's a lot riding on one player especially when you consider that kind of money potentially buys 3 relatively effective D players (especially when the Patriots offer players a top chance for a ring while also the opp to prove to next year's market "I'm a top player who deserves a sold multi year"). And given the reality of injury, having multiple relatively effective positions filled often is the wisest move over that one high priced star, IMHO.

I think that in general, many players don’t seem to fit the criteria that Belichick uses to judge potential longer term, second contracts in NE.

Just off the top of my head: They have to be leaders both on/off the field, they have to offer a high level of talent with an important skill set, they have to be durable, they have to offer a strong work ethic, they have to show improvement in developing their skills, and they have to be versatile.

I think Flowers checks all of these boxes and allows Belichick to do just about anything that he wants. He can manage calls/adjustments on the line (aside from what HT does, of course), allows them to play many different schemes, can play inside/outside, can set the edge, and can rush the passer.

I think this decision will be much harder than the typical “we won’t choose to pay market value” kind of players that we see come and go every spring at various positions. I may be off on my assessment, but I think Bill Belichick finds a way to keep Trey Flowers. I think he’s going to be a staple of the defense in the future and is worthy of the (somewhat) rare second, big money contract in NE.

 

[supafly]

I hope you’re right about Flowers. I think I may have put the number too high at 17.5M and would have generated better debate with something closer to $14M. As to what he’ll actually get for an offer, it’s hard to tell. He doesn’t have the big sack numbers but is certainly on many teams radars.

PFF has a projected five year, $80M deal, which is $16M per year, and the 6th best free agent. NFL.com has him ranked as the 5th best free agent. Most sites have him anywhere from 2nd to 8th overall, though a lot of players ahead of him may be franchised.

Chandler Jones got just over $16M a few years ago - which was way over what this forum expected - and I do think teams pay through the nose for Patriots (Collins, Solder, Butler, Ryan come to mind recently); the cap is higher now. In general I think we tend to underestimate the free agency market a lot of the time. Just last year we lost all those players and everyone was surprised again at the offers they got. Defensive Ends tend to really break the bank. Mack is at 23.5M (!). Donald is at 22.5M. Miller is at 19M.

Olivier Vernon is at 17M and signed in 2016 with the Giants. That’s the deal that concerns me the most, as Vernon also wasn’t a high sack total guy but has a had a lot of versatility and very good all around game, kind of a similar to Flowers...even their height and weight are almost identical. I could see Flowers getting a deal like Vernon’s, and this is three years later with a higher cap.

If Flowers is closer to the $13-14M range, that would be awesome, and I think he re-signs.

I may be underestimating his AAV a bit. Let’s say we raise it a million to the 14-15m dollar range. I think that would be fair for a player who’s not necessarily a “huge name” type of guy, but who has proven his worth here in NE. That may still end up being too low, but I think it’s a good enough estimate where we (mostly meaning me) won’t look terribly stupid, should it be in the 16m dollar a year range.

I know that Donald, Mack, and Von Miller are all getting top money in the high teens/early twenties, but I’m not sure that applies to this particular player who seems to be a solid tier below. Your comparison of the Vernon contract is apt, and like you said, that could be concerning.

I agree about other teams overvaluing NE players and have brought that up myself. I think the prime time and postseason exposure helps drive the cost up, and who wouldn’t want a solid player who’s been coached up by Bill Belichick, right?

I think Belichick tries hard to keep this one. Let’s hope that we can offer some decent guaranteed money, a competitive AAV, and Flowers wants to stay in a winning environment. I don’t see him using the franchise tag, though.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I may be underestimating his AAV a bit. Let’s say we raise it a million to the 14-15m dollar range. I think that would be fair for a player who’s not necessarily a “huge name” type of guy, but who has proven his worth here in NE. That may still end up being too low, but I think it’s a good enough estimate where we (mostly meaning me) won’t look terribly stupid, should it be in the 16m dollar a year range.

I know that Donald, Mack, and Von Miller are all getting top money in the high teens/early twenties, but I’m not sure that applies to this particular player who seems to be a solid tier below. Your comparison of the Vernon contract is apt, and like you said, that could be concerning.

I agree about other teams overvaluing NE players and have brought that up myself. I think the prime time and postseason exposure helps drive the cost up, and who wouldn’t want a solid player who’s been coached up by Bill Belichick, right?

I think Belichick tries hard to keep this one. Let’s hope that we can offer some decent guaranteed money, a competitive AAV, and Flowers wants to stay in a winning environment. I don’t see him using the franchise tag, though.

A lot of times the Patriots miss out in free agency due to the structure/guarantees more than the overall contract value. Just something that may come into play with Flowers, as we could be talking about a difference of $10-15M guaranteed, even if the Patriots are willing to hit that $15M range.

 

[luuked]

D. Allen-No at 4.5. He’s a blocker, period. 2.5 is the most he is worth. If he could catch it would be a different story, but he clearly can’t.

Kinda funny how people still value Allen below the handful of third down snaps that Amendola would give the team or even below a gadget player like Patterson who gives the team maybe 5-6 good snaps a game.

One would think after this SB some would grow more sensitive to contributions from players that are not known for their scoring but for the dirty work they put in.

 

[luuked]

I can't make this too complicated with how long the deal is, the guarantee, etc., so let's just go with the annual salary. Please go with a yes/no and feel free to add an explanation.

Trey Flowers
Is he worth $17.5M, roughly the current franchise tag for defensive ends? Not asking if they would franchise him, but the tag amount itself represents top-5 DE value.

Trent Brown
Is he worth $12.5M, roughly the reported amount the Patriots offered Nate Solder last year?

Jason McCourty
Is he worth $5.5M? He made $3M this year but will surely command more on the open market at this position.

Cordarrelle Patterson
Is he worth $5M, a little more than what he made the past two seasons? Undoubtedly other teams will be interested.

Stephen Gostkowski
Is he worth $4.5M? That's elite kicker range, and someone will pay it.

Phillip Dorsett
Is he worth $3M? He may be able to develop further and play a larger role.

Chris Hogan
Is he worth $3M? He is 30 and does not appear to be trending in the right direction.

Malcom Brown
Is he worth $3M? He has not lived up to expectations but is a contributor.

Eric Rowe
Is he worth $2.5M? He is a competent player at a competitive position, and his stock is low.

Ryan Allen
Is he worth $2.5M? He has been very good and probably commands top money at the position.


BONUS

Rob Gronkowski
Is he worth $12M if he decides to continue playing? Releasing him would only be a dead cap hit of $2M. Supposing they restructure his deal, is he worth $8M? What is he worth?

Dwayne Allen
Is he worth $4.5M? There is no dead cap hit from releasing him from his current salary at $7M, which is a likely move. They would need to restructure.

Julian Edelman
Julian Edelman forgets who he is, believes he is Antonio Brown, and texts Bill "pay up bro, or imma do me". Is he worth $8.5M for one year with incentives? He is currently at $5.5, a massive discount.

Danny Amendola
The Dolphins cut Danny Amendola. Is he worth $3M for another year?

Tom Brady
Giselle's career bombs and Tom's fitness program is investigated by the FDA...leaving him penniless and living on the streets. He demands $40M for 2019. Deal?

I see three big categories here.

First of all the ones where the Pats want them back at their own number but it will be up to how the market develops:

On the higher end: Trey Flowers, Trent Brown
On the lower end: JMac, Patterson

I think JMac provides a veteran presence and has shown enough diversity to be part of next years team at a reasonable price.

Patterson is not worth more than 2.5-3m. He has 5-6 relevant snaps each game outside ST. If BB values his ST contributions a lot maybe it can push a bit higher into Ebner/Slater territory. But I have the feeling someone like the Ravens might give him a bigger contract than what we offer.

Then the ones I expect back:

Gost, Ryan Allen, Phillip Dorsett

If you have a great kicker who just nailed the biggest kick of his life in the SB you don't let him leave and cross your fingers you can find someone as good just to save 1-2m. Having someone who can nail kickoffs and is dependable even from bigger ranges is worth that money. Just look at the attempts of other teams to draft a kicker as high as the second round failed miserably.

If we had stashed Bojorquez last year instead of the Bills grabbing him I might think differently about the punter but unless there is a gem in the draft I am not sure if there is a safe way to replace him. I would not be surprised if he gets an extension that can be walked away from in a year already. Just enough time for a smooth transition.

Dorsett seems to be making plays whenever he gets targeted but never could get over Hogan on the depth chart. I am not sure anyone will bend over backwards to sign him in FA so I think he might be available for a reasonable amount. He brings some youth in the WR group that is definitely needed.

And finally the ones we say goodbye to:

Eric Rowe, Malcom Brown, Chris Hogan

Rowe would be buried so far down the depth chart really no point in keeping him. Unless he can be back for really cheap I dont think Brown is worth market money. Hogan had a nice run but really did not pop in his final year here.

In terms of your bonus..

Dwayne Allen will either ask to be cut before FA starts or will sign a contract extension at some point in the offseason/preseason. But there is no way he will go into the regular season his current contract.

If Gronk comes back for 2019 I think he will play it out on his current contract. He will certainly not agree to a pay cut and with the potential for his retirement always in the air I am not sure the team would be particularly interested in extending him (unless the guarantees are low enough).

Edelman might get a small pay bump but lets keep in mind that the market for 33 year old WR is not particularly strong. So I am not sure he will get close to the 8.5m you suggest. More like around 7m (if at all that much).

If you have listened to the QuickSlants episode where Curran had the Krafts on I think it is pretty obvious that there are things in the work for a Brady extension. The really interesting question for me is whether they go with one year extensions or go back to the two year model.

And finally there is a space for Dola on the team if he is fine earning his usual rate. He is an ideal emergency option in case of injuries and on third downs. But it is all up to him if he wants to grind it out another year given that he already has 2 rings.