Anyone break down Asante's 10 picks INT-by-INT?

[Miguel]

I'm done for tonight, but I'll do some more tomorrow night.

Thanks for these posts. They are pretty informative.

 

[AD#96]

eh..most of his picks (well a lot of them) came on one and the same play. they analyzed him on "nfl matchup". it was exactly the same play, over and over again. out of the nickel formation he covered the outside WR, right after the snap he jumped the route to the slot WR (moved a few yds to the left or right so he became the nickelback) and thats usually when he picked off the QBs. some of y'all make it sound like he all of a sudden became a great CB or something like that. like he can cover any WR one on one, like he could shut down no.1 wrs, like hes a cover corner etc. heck, even he thinks hes that type of a corner. well, he is not. our system made him look so good. he played it perfectly and made plays. hobbs, gay and any day 1 draft pick could do the same thing for us next season

 

[Seneschal2]

One might say this is a knock against Samuel - that he's the product of a system... but I would disagree with that too. Samuels FITS our system well - in that respect he's more valuable to us than I believe he would be to many other teams... of course, he'd fit in well with the Jets, or possibly the Browns for obvious reasons.

I agree with this, and will add that Samuel has developed since he was drafted, as Law did. By no means am I comparing the two as equal talents, but Samuel has learned how to play the position (sitting on routes, etc.).

The one major difference between Samuel's previous seasons and last season is he caught more balls in '06 -- that's it. Both he and BB have publicly mentioned this fact during the season. Samuel has always had good ball skills; in college he broke his school record for passes defensed. And with the Pats, he led the team in that category in both '05 and '06. His stats from college through the pros proves that he's usually in position to make a play on the ball. This quality is exactly what BB wants from his DBs.

Until '06, Samuel had a history of just tipping lots of passes and dropping some relatively easy ints. Huge difference between a change of down and a change of possession. Now with his lofty int stat under his belt from last season, does this mean he now has sticky hands? Or was that for one season only? Teams want to know...because if he does have those kind of hands, he'll be considered a true playmaker which some team may pay mightily for. At the very least we know he has ball skills, which certainly has it's value on any roster. But true playmakers with sticky hands are a rare breed, and have usually proven themselves more than one season. They can be considered the elite. Call them difference makers and gamechangers and give them the $$$. IMHO, Samuel's not deserving of that elite status. In time maybe...but not now.

 

[zarakotas5]

This is a GREAT thread that hopefully puts to rest some misnomers and shed some sheer facts on what the hell Samuel is and will be. Congrats and appreciation to Pats1, PViV, J6P, Miguel, et al...!

That said, in the interest of truth, I hope analysis can be as honest as possible. (Nit-pick: check. Sorry) This Samuel situation really is a tough one. Milloy broke my heart as a kid, McGinest, etc. But this is a totally different beast.

If anybody actually reads my posts: What effects would guaranteed contracts have on NFL salaries and negotiations? Salaries/years down? Up? Grounds for hold-outs eliminated? Refused thus far by owners? Safety nets, such as not applied towards cap if IR, etc? Thanks...

 

[DarrylS]

Thanks for these posts. They are pretty informative.

I agree, although I cannot comprehend it all, enjoy the level of intelligence in this thread..

 

[Ring 6]

You'd have a point if there were any evidence that Samuel truly did "come up short" in terms of preventing completions and YAC. He didn't. As impressive as his INT total was last year, the stat that really sticks out in my mind is that he lead all starting corners in yards allowed per pass attempt against (per footballoutsiders.com).

So even if it turns out that many of Samuel's INTs were "gifts," it still doesn't change the fact that he had a great year last year.

Can you link those stats or the article it was in?

 

[Miguel]

Can you link those stats or the article it was in?

http://community.foxsports.com/blogs...ild_Card_Games

"Asante Samuel is your lord and master. He allowed just 4.7 yards per pass, which is the lowest of any cornerback in the league with at least 30 charted passes except for R.W. McQuarters. Except the average pass against McQuarters was FIVE YARDS SHORTER than the average pass against Samuel, and we charted nearly twice as many passes against Samuel because McQuarters is a nickel back. Samuel also had a high 61% stop rate (stopping plays short of success). Ellis Hobbs and Chad Scott had similar, average stats, which is strange because it seemed like Scott was burned constantly. Hobbs was one of the best "

 

[TripleOption]

eh..most of his picks (well a lot of them) came on one and the same play. they analyzed him on "nfl matchup". it was exactly the same play, over and over again. out of the nickel formation he covered the outside WR, right after the snap he jumped the route to the slot WR (moved a few yds to the left or right so he became the nickelback) and thats usually when he picked off the QBs. some of y'all make it sound like he all of a sudden became a great CB or something like that. like he can cover any WR one on one, like he could shut down no.1 wrs, like hes a cover corner etc. heck, even he thinks hes that type of a corner. well, he is not. our system made him look so good. he played it perfectly and made plays. hobbs, gay and any day 1 draft pick could do the same thing for us next season

It is a Streak by #1 and an Out by #2. A VERY common pattern from Twins at every level. Samuel was a master at selling the deep coverage on the Streak and jumping the Out as the QB read to throw short. He jumped the exact same combo vs the Jags for a pick 6 in the playoffs of 2005.

He is very, very good. If he is reasonable, they should resign him. He reminds me of a young Ty Law...in good and bad ways ($$$$).

 

[pats1]

Week 12, Chicago @ NE, 1st quarter:

3-5-CHI30(13:34) R.Grossman pass short right intended for B.Berrian INTERCEPTED by A.Samuel at CHI 39. A.Samuel to CHI 39 for no gain (B.Berrian).

3 WR left, 1 right, lone RB vs. 3-3 nickel press left, Samuel off RWR. Grossman quick drop, no pressure, pass on target on quick slant. Samuel came in from behind and beat Berrian to the ball.

 

[pats1]

Week 12, Chicago @ NE, 3rd quarter:

1-10-NE29(2:38) R.Grossman pass deep right intended for D.Clark INTERCEPTED by A.Samuel at NE 7. A.Samuel pushed ob at NE 34 for 27 yards (R.Grossman).

2 WR left, TE right, I-form backfield vs. 3-4 soft coverage. Grossman play action, under little pressure, pass underthrown on a deep TE wheel route. Samuel’s RWR came in motion, so Samuel dropped back and stayed behind and outside the TE Clark on the route with Hawkins in the deep middle. The throw came in short and behind Samuel, who was in position to come up and take it out of the air.

 

[pats1]

Week 12, Chicago @ NE, 4th quarter:

1-10-CHI22(1:52) R.Grossman pass deep middle intended for R.Davis INTERCEPTED by A.Samuel at NE 38. A.Samuel to NE 37 for -1 yards (R.Davis). NE 22-Samuel 3rd INT of game, ties NE team record (6 other times, most recently Roland James 10/23/83 at Buffalo)

2 WR right, 1 left, TE right, lone RB vs. 4-2 nickel, NB and LWR press. Samuel at least 10 yards off RWR. Grossman under little pressure, pass overthrown on deep RWR post. Samuel stayed off the RWR, then put on the burners when Grossman aired it out and won the footrace to the ball.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I agree with this, and will add that Samuel has developed since he was drafted, as Law did. By no means am I comparing the two as equal talents, but Samuel has learned how to play the position (sitting on routes, etc.).

Very interesting to compare Samuel and Law.

Law, as smart, skilled and talented as he was (and is?) begrudingly played BB's system - and did it well.

But you could tell Law always would have preferred to gamble on his own terms - much as he did on the NYJ in 2005 gaining 10 INTs - his non-successful gambles also resulted in some very big plays, negating some of the positive impact of his INTs.

Samuel meanwhile plays under a more controlled gambling scheme - and obviously did so very successfully last season. I'm not recalling major faux pas where major secondary lapses could be blamed on Samuel.

He's a great fit for our system no doubt - I want him to stay, and would love a fair long term contract.

 

[The 12th Man]

This is very interesting. Thanks for the breakdowns Pats1.

 

[tombonneau]

Agreed, Pats1! Great breakdowns. Thus far, I'm not seeing too many "gift" INTs; it looks like Asante earned most of them to this point.

 

[Brownfan80]

Great breakdowns Pats1. I didn't count, but that didn't feel like all of them, so I'll keep checking back to see if there are more.

 

[pats1]

Great breakdowns Pats1. I didn't count, but that didn't feel like all of them, so I'll keep checking back to see if there are more.

There's still 6 more (incl. playoffs), so I'll get back at them tomorrow night.

 

[Brownfan80]

There's still 6 more (incl. playoffs), so I'll get back at them tomorrow night.

Cool stuff, I'll be back by to check them out.

 

[Dragda]

Exactly, he knows the system and knows when to take chances. Our secondary gets trashed on a regular basis but they gave up 10 passing TDs all year. The ones I remember were not a result of CBs taking chances, most were poor Safety support over the top (James Sanders versus Denver) or poor tackling (Hawkins multiple times, most notably in the first game against the Jets.)

The situations where we were burned were the big plays many of which were flukey or hail mary types of plays. But we consistently saw the odd missed tackle where a player wasn't actually down. How many bombs did Grossman complete in the Bears game? Remember the Indy game? The defense has everything the way we wanted. Peyton heaves up a desperation pass. Nearly every heave a Colts receiver comes under the ball. Our DBs were too deep. It seems our opponents scouted this tendency.

A huge liability with the bend but don't break is that we don't always prevent the score. While this is severely oversimplifying the defense, the base philosophy seems to 1) stop the run; 2) prevent the big play and pick up an advantage by the condensed field near the red zone. In my opinion, the offense gains a similar advantage: Take what they give you until you can capatalize on a mistake. We saw a lot of mistakes last season. Samuel didn't seem to be the cause of those mistakes.