Am I the only one who does NOT want Welker back?

[DaBruinz]

I can go either way with this. Sometimes like many people in this forum I want him back because I don't necessarily like change and I'm scared of the unknown.

Is WW on the decline is my next question so when I take a look at the numbers and a few things stick out,

1. Welker was target the most of any year in his career last year but yet caught the lowest percentage,

2007 - 77%
2008 - 74%
2009 - 76%
2010 - 70%
2011 - 71%
2012 - 68%

2. His FD, YPC, YAC, Yards and TD numbers were both down from 2011.
3. He fumbled more times this season than he did in the 4 years combined.

So yes he is on a decline.

Then my next question how much of what WW does is a product of scheme and coaching? And I don't know.

I guess I'd like to have him back but only on are terms. If him coming back is going to burden us in a way that we cannot keep are other key FA and make 1-2 really good signings I'd rather roll the dice and see if we can fill the void another way.

The Welker era has to end sometime soon and I can say without a doubt his best years are behind him so if its over now I will not complain that much.

Gotta love when people play with stats and don't offer comparisons.

First, Welker's YPC was down from 2011, yes. However, it was still HIGHER than his career average which was 11.0 prior to the start of this season .

Secondly, this was Welker's second highest total for receiving yards in his career.

Third, Welker fumbled 3 times this season. The previous 4 years combined was 5 times. So, you fall flat on your face with that example.

Fourth, to say that Welker is on the decline because his TD receptions are down is a fallacy. It totally disregards the fact that the Pats RAN the ball for TDs more than they have in previous years and Brady threw 5 less this year than the previous year. They also spread the ball out more. You had Lloyd with 4, Edelman with 3, and Woodhead with 3 besides the ones to Gronk (11) and Hernandez (5) .

So, for you to come to the conclusion that Welker is on the decline is really flawed because your argument is flawed.

 

[hovis]

You are equally high if you think another team will pay him that much.

Franchise tag is roughly ~ 11/12. Why would anyone pay multiple years above that?

Last time I checked, you can't franchise another team's player, so that number is irrelevant. Someone will pay more because there will be a bidding war. There are plenty of teams with deep pockets and even deeper needs.

 

[UK_Pat37]

Do you people realize how LITTLE the Patriots have paid Welker for the type of production he's put up for YEARS? It's really quite embarrassing.

In 2007, the Patriots signed Welker to a 5-year $18.1 million contract...that's $3.62 million a year for 5 years. During that time, the only season he didn't have WELL over 100 receptions was in 2010, the year after he tore his MCL and ACL in week 17. He STILL had 86 catches in 2010.

During this 5-year stretch, Wes Welker has had the MOST receptions and the 4th most yards of any receiver in the NFL. Again, he's making $3.62 million a year during this 5-YEAR stretch. Are you kidding me? It's true. They could have rewarded him for all the value he brought beyond his contract but they didn't.

Then the Patriots FINALLY showed him the money he deserved (for a long time) last year...but they didn't give him a contract...they franchised him only for one year. What if he had a career-ending injury this year?

If I'm Wes Welker, I'm chasing the money at this point in my career. The Patriots simply have not done right by him FOR SIX YEARS, basically. Now you see a whole bunch of Patriot fans wanting to low-ball him again, after he has not been payed his due EVER? I don't think so.

If nothing else, the Patriots owe it to him for what he has ALREADY done and not be compensated for.

Also, Welker never complained about any of this.

As far as I can see, Welker has already been had at an unreal discount, and he shouldn't settle for another one. Pay him what he deserves FINALLY, or he should go elsewhere.

That's like going to my boss and saying 'hey, I'm due my pay rise but I won't just settle for the average increase as I feel I more than earned my pay grade before this and you got me at a discount. So, I think you should over pay me for my worth now so that you can make up what I feel I should be owed'.

See how that sounds now? Business doesn't work like that.

 

[1%er]

Gotta love when people play with stats and don't offer comparisons.

First, Welker's YPC was down from 2011, yes. However, it was still HIGHER than his career average which was 11.0 prior to the start of this season .

Secondly, this was Welker's second highest total for receiving yards in his career.

Third, Welker fumbled 3 times this season. The previous 4 years combined was 5 times. So, you fall flat on your face with that example.

Fourth, to say that Welker is on the decline because his TD receptions are down is a fallacy. It totally disregards the fact that the Pats RAN the ball for TDs more than they have in previous years and Brady threw 5 less this year than the previous year. They also spread the ball out more. You had Lloyd with 4, Edelman with 3, and Woodhead with 3 besides the ones to Gronk (11) and Hernandez (5) .

So, for you to come to the conclusion that Welker is on the decline is really flawed because your argument is flawed.

All this says is blah blah I love WW and I don't care if stats decline.

 

[BrickPat]

Some here are intimating that WW is somehow an anchor in the offense...apparently those posters don't believe their lying eyes on Sundays.

So much is expected of Welker that a disproportinate amount of blame is assigned to him when he Pats lose. Guys as productive and durable aren't a dime a dozen in the NFL. If Welker is demanding a cap choking contract I can see them moving on but short of that they'd be crazy to let him walk.

The fact that WW is not the end all-be all answer on offense does not make him a weakness by default. WW was not the reason the Pats lost to the Ravens although he is becoming the quasi scapegoat it seems. Brady played poorly, the secondary was exploited, the Ravens TE was gashing them, etc but no, WW did not singlehandidly carry the team so he was a big reason they lost because of the drop...it defies logic.

As I posted in another thread it's easy to minimize or dismiss Welker's value and production in the off season until you are reminded actually watching him in games making big plays/YACs and getting up after bone crushing hits. There is an irrefutable and established playmaking chemistry between Brady and Welker that also can't be discounted as a non factor.

People rightfully call out those who think Lloyd should be anything more than he has always been- a good hands WR who doesn't create much by way of speed or seperation. Lloyd typically showed an abymsmal YAC but again the Pats via Daniels knew what they were getting.

Having said that why is WW considered more of a liability, for lack of a better word, than the complimenatry WR Lloyd? Why can't the Pats draft/obtain that prototypical "big WR" and keep WW?

 

[Banjo]

I don't get this obsession with money. It's not MY money, nor it is any of yours, so pay Welker whatever the hell he wants!

 

[BrickPat]

I don't get this obsession with money. It's not MY money, nor it is any of yours, so pay Welker whatever the hell he wants!

Obviously I'm a keep WW guy [see above post]. Having said that its not about whose money it is. Its a question of whether Welker is demanding an unreasonably high salary that prohibits or inhibits the team from signing/resigning other quality players.

 

[Bhelmet]

This is tough. I would like to keep WW here, but it has to be at the right price. If they allow him to walk, it will have to be with Brady's approval and his "suggested" replacement. This could be an interesting off-season.

 

[Off The Grid]

I don't get this obsession with money.

It's not MY money, nor it is any of yours, so pay Welker whatever the hell he wants!

S-a-l-a-r-y C-a-p.

 

[satz]

S-a-l-a-r-y C-a-p.

the jets are in salary cap trouble NOW. after signing and going crazy for what 5yrs.

At this time i do not give a damn. give brady every thing for 5yrs and i am willing to spend 2016-18 being 2 bad years.

Your love to save the 2016-18 seasons is not shared by me!.

 

[Deus Irae]

Brady and Welker are this team's #1 and #2 weapons on offense, and Welker is, by all accounts, a great teammate. People, basically, are hoping that a team that consistently wins 12+ games while lighting up the scoreboards, and is in the hunt for the Lombardi every year, doesn't bring back the most important non-QB player on offense.

31 teams' fanbases would give their eyeteeth to have the guy, and here we've got a bunch of non-thinking "fans" who want to ship out a guy because he's human.

:bricks:

 

[DarrylStingley]

Brady and Welker are this team's #1 and #2 weapons on offense, and Welker is, by all accounts, a great teammate. People, basically, are hoping that a team that consistently wins 12+ games while lighting up the scoreboards, and is in the hunt for the Lombardi every year, doesn't bring back the most important non-QB player on offense.

31 teams' fanbases would give their eyeteeth to have the guy, and here we've got a bunch of non-thinking "fans" who want to ship out a guy because he's human.

:bricks:

It's not that simple.

Wes is a great player. But at what cost? Do you tie up $11.4 mm of the cap on him if you can't do a deal? Maybe. Probably. But don't you want BB to at least think about alternatives first?

In the SB loss last year and the Ravens game, both defenses dared the Pats to beat them on the outside. Both packed the middle. The Pats didn't have an outside threat in either game to counteract that. Yes, there were other problems but that was one of the issues that hurt the Pats.

So IF the Pats could use some of the "Wes money" to bring in a blue chip outside threat and then use Edelman or Hernandez or someone else in the slot, shouldn't they at least consider it?

I mean I love Wes a lot. I know that he is a huge producer. But they haven't won with him and maybe there's another way to skin the cat.

Entertaining that possibility doesn't make Pats fan who do so "non-thinking."

 

[Deus Irae]

It's not that simple.

Wes is a great player. But at what cost? Do you tie up $11.4 mm of the cap on him if you can't do a deal? Maybe. Probably. But don't you want BB to at least think about alternatives first?

In the SB loss last year and the Ravens game, both defenses dared the Pats to beat them on the outside. Both packed the middle. The Pats didn't have an outside threat in either game to counteract that. Yes, there were other problems but that was one of the issues that hurt the Pats.

So IF the Pats could use some of the "Wes money" to bring in a blue chip outside threat and then use Edelman or Hernandez or someone else in the slot, shouldn't they at least consider it?

I mean I love Wes a lot. I know that he is a huge producer. But they haven't won with him and maybe there's another way to skin the cat.

Entertaining that possibility doesn't make Pats fan who do so "non-thinking."

There's a difference between a person who wants Welker back but is concerned about paying 11 million dollars and a person who doesn't want him back (or deliberately demands he accept vastly undervalued contracts) because he dropped a couple of passes, is old, slow, short, etc... One is thinking and coming to a legitimate (even if biased to one side or another) conclusion. The other is acting like a petulant child.

 

[Bhelmet]

It's not that simple.

In the SB loss last year and the Ravens game, both defenses dared the Pats to beat them on the outside. Both packed the middle. The Pats didn't have an outside threat in either game to counteract that. Yes, there were other problems but that was one of the issues that hurt the Pats.

The missing piece - Gronk. Wes is so much more effective with Gronk and he does not have to be relied upon EVERY time. I just hope we get some luck on the health front.

 

[aluminum seats]

I love Wes a lot. I know that he is a huge producer. But they haven't won with him

This is the problem with so much of the zero-sum thinking that goes on--not just here, but in sports generally.

Yes, it is correct that the Pats haven't won a Super Bowl with Wes Welker. But in and of itself, that fact is essentially worthless when it comes to analyzing the team or the player. If Samuel had made that pick in '07, would that change the thinking on Welker? After all, they would have "won" with him then. The end result changes nothing.

Welker is an ENORMOUS value-added player to this team, and should be for the next 2-3 years (at least). Not making him a top priority to bring back is bananas.

 

[Raymond]

It's not that simple..........
.... But they haven't won with him and maybe there's another way to skin the cat.

They apparently can't win with Wes when Gronk is out.

Can Wes's replacement win without Gronk?

 

[jnug]

The only guy the Pats have paid is Brady. Even Brady has gone through restructuring to make room for other guys. Every other player either plays ball with the Pats or goes elsewhere at the point where said player is in the hunt for the big payday in terms of the monster contract of his career. Even Gronks six year deal is not going to be Gronks biggest contract in his career and when his six years are up, whatever he has done up to that point....If he does not play ball with the Pats I expect they will let him walk.

The issue is doubly complicated with Wes because the Pats expect everybody to play ball. Wes gave them the upper hand last year and they slapped him across the face with it...making a point of letting him know that this is still the Pats in the process. So I do not expect Wes to be willing to play ball and I don't expect the Pats to change how they do things.

IMO, the Pats will either franchise Wes again or let him go elsewhere. I really hope they made the right decision on Hernandez. They call him a TE but have you seen him block?

At the end of the day I think it turns out that the Hernandez contract ends up putting the Pats in a position where they really end up struggling with paying Welker and end up letting him go. I would not expect them to look for a Welker wanna' be if that happens. I would expect that the Pats would try to get a legit deep/outside threat which would help this team even with Gronk on the field and would definitely help if not. They are probably stuck going the draft route to make that happen. That should mean somebody that they can afford to bring in that still gives them another option besides Gronk.

The thing that makes Gronk such a threat is that he can catch balls underneath and over the top. Let him catch it underneath and he is just as likely to take it to the house as if he catches a deep ball. That is the kind of guy they need except it has to be a WR. That is why Moss was not effective as the Gronk alternative as his career has wound down. Moss was only a threat to get those long legs going and catch the deep ball. As long as the defender stayed deeper than he was, Moss was toast.

 

[DarrylStingley]

They apparently can't win with Wes when Gronk is out.

Can Wes's replacement win without Gronk?

Fair point.

To be clear, I'm not at all saying that because they haven't won a SB with Wes they should turf him and move on.

I am saying that having not win a SB in the years they've had him (2007-12), and the price tag, and the fact that if they pay him the money they probably can't attract a high end outside, number 1 type receiver, should all combine to make them pause before the hit the reset button on Wes.

I don't mean to overemphasize that they haven't won a SB. There are multiple causes. But it's still a factor. MAYBE the absence of a deep and/or outside threat means more in the playoffs than it does in the regular season. Maybe it means more against really physical teams?

I dunno. But stuff to consider, I think.

 

[SwedishPat]

First of all, I got to say that I love Wes, he is an amazing slot receiver. But right know, I think that the best thing to do is put the money he wants on a bigger, outside receiver. Welker is at his best betwen the number. That is where we also have Hernandez and Gronkowski. I just think that a outside receiver, who is a real #1 wr, could improve the offense.

 

[DaBruinz]

First of all, I got to say that I love Wes, he is an amazing slot receiver. But right know, I think that the best thing to do is put the money he wants on a bigger, outside receiver. Welker is at his best betwen the number. That is where we also have Hernandez and Gronkowski. I just think that a outside receiver, who is a real #1 wr, could improve the offense.

Could you please show me this "bigger outside receiver" that runs excellent routes at all difference levels of the field and earns the respect of other teams the way Welker does?