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Wes ain't stupid, he won't sign a contract for funny money, especially after last year's negotiations. In my opinion, you'd have to guarantee most of his contract. Plus, the Pats will get outbid if they take that tactic.
There's a fair number somewhere between $8 million and $11.5 million for Welker. By lengthening the deal, but keeping the guaranteed money only for years 1-2 (or at least mostly for years 102), the Patriots would get a hedge against decline, while Welker would still be able to bring in good cash if his performance warrants it, and that should also allow for a number that gets closer and closer to the $8 million number the more the team is willing to offer a bit more 'cheddar' in terms of longer range guarantees.
The problem would potentially be that the Patriots might still be more focused on winning a negotiation than on working out a fair agreement.
As for Wes not being stupid, I agree with you. There are obviously plenty of teams that could use his help, and I expect that several would be quite willing to pay him at least somewhat accordingly.