Metaphors
In the Starting Line-Up
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We all know this is a quarterback league, but I found it interesting how the teams in the NFL have acquired their quarterbacks. Obviously there are 4 ways to get any player:
1) Draft them early (1st day)
2) Draft them late (2nd day, undrafted FA)
3) Trade/waiver from another team while young/unproven
4) Trade/waiver from another team as a veteran
Drafting late has the lowest risk and money invested, but is the hardest to do. When you score (Brady, Romo), you generally score big. Worst case is that you find someone who can get by until you have a permanent answer (D.Anderson, Garrard). There are no failures in this category since expectations are non-existant.
Acquiring young talent from another team is similar, but can sometimes be costly in draft pick compensation. The extra cost results in higher expectations but still a fairly low failure rate. Favre, Hasselbeck, Bulger and Delhomme all exceeded expectations and Schaub looks to be well on his way.
Using a high draft pick on a QB seems like an obvious thing to do, but the high investment combined with immediate pressure and expections raises the risk factor...resulting in about a 50% or so washout rate. I've heard the opinion that missing on a 1st round QB can set your team back 5 years. That may be a bit harsh but probably not by much. The current starters have the big-timers (P.Manning, Roethlisberger, Palmer, McNabb) and the breakouts (V.Young, J.Campbell), but mostly it is a grab-bag of potential and nagging questions (Losman, Cutler, A.Smith, Leinart, E.Manning, T.Jackson, Pennington).
Acquiring a veteran QB almost never works out well. You would never be able to acquire them if there weren't some aspect of their game that will prevent your team from reaching its potential. Some will be successful to a degree (Brees, Huard, Kitna, Garcia) and might be able to catch lightning in a bottle for a year (Brad Johnson) but all that really does is stagnate your team for a year that could have been used for development. A good number are just disasters (T.Green, McNair).
So if a team wants to compete for a championship, you better have one or more of the following:
A) A top 10 draft pick
B) Great scouts at the pro/college level for quarterback skills
C) A solid program for developing quarterback skills at the pro level
1) Draft them early (1st day)
2) Draft them late (2nd day, undrafted FA)
3) Trade/waiver from another team while young/unproven
4) Trade/waiver from another team as a veteran
Drafting late has the lowest risk and money invested, but is the hardest to do. When you score (Brady, Romo), you generally score big. Worst case is that you find someone who can get by until you have a permanent answer (D.Anderson, Garrard). There are no failures in this category since expectations are non-existant.
Acquiring young talent from another team is similar, but can sometimes be costly in draft pick compensation. The extra cost results in higher expectations but still a fairly low failure rate. Favre, Hasselbeck, Bulger and Delhomme all exceeded expectations and Schaub looks to be well on his way.
Using a high draft pick on a QB seems like an obvious thing to do, but the high investment combined with immediate pressure and expections raises the risk factor...resulting in about a 50% or so washout rate. I've heard the opinion that missing on a 1st round QB can set your team back 5 years. That may be a bit harsh but probably not by much. The current starters have the big-timers (P.Manning, Roethlisberger, Palmer, McNabb) and the breakouts (V.Young, J.Campbell), but mostly it is a grab-bag of potential and nagging questions (Losman, Cutler, A.Smith, Leinart, E.Manning, T.Jackson, Pennington).
Acquiring a veteran QB almost never works out well. You would never be able to acquire them if there weren't some aspect of their game that will prevent your team from reaching its potential. Some will be successful to a degree (Brees, Huard, Kitna, Garcia) and might be able to catch lightning in a bottle for a year (Brad Johnson) but all that really does is stagnate your team for a year that could have been used for development. A good number are just disasters (T.Green, McNair).
So if a team wants to compete for a championship, you better have one or more of the following:
A) A top 10 draft pick
B) Great scouts at the pro/college level for quarterback skills
C) A solid program for developing quarterback skills at the pro level