I had way too much time on my hands yesterday and got access to some cool stats, so I spent an hour or so playing around with completion rates, drop rates, spreadsheets, etc., looking at NFL wide receivers, with a focus on Wes Welker. Admittedly, I am more of a baseball guy than an NFL guy, so perhaps these numbers won't make sense/be useful, but hell, I spent some time on them so I may as well post. Maybe you guys will find them interesting.
Wes Welker was a very good player in 2012. He caught 118 passes, the 2nd highest total in the NFL, gained 619 yards after catching the ball, the most in football, and had 72 first downs, 6th best in the league. But I don't think those numbers tell the whole story, and there is some evidence to suggest Welker is regressing. His completion percentage, calculated simply as Receptions/Targets has gone from 79.6% in 2008 to 70.2% last season (all stats include playoffs, and are from FootballFocus.com). His drops have gone from 7 in 2008 to a disconcerting 19 this season, by far the most in the NFL, including 4 in the two Patriot playoff games. Welker also led the NFL in drops in 2011, with 15.
Code:
Year Targ Rec Rec % Drops Catchable Drop %
2008 137 109 79.6% 7 116 6.0%
2009 152 123 80.9% 6 129 4.7%
2010 127 95 74.8% 13 106 12.3%
2011 193 141 73.1% 15 156 9.6%
2012 191 134 70.2% 19 153 12.4%
Drops alone, of course, are not a fair way to judge Welker, who sees far more passes than an average receiver. Drop percentage may be a better method of assessing Welker's pass catching ability, although, as I will discuss shortly, there are issues with that stat when considering Welker, as well. As you can see from the chart, Welker's drop percentage has declined quite a bit over the past three seasons. In 2008 and 2009, Welker's drop % put him among the top 10 – 15 receivers in the game, while from 2010 – 2012 he has been bottom 20 (this includes receivers who are targeted 25% of the time, which corresponds to ~ 50 targets over the course of the season).
With receivers, you also have to consider the difficulty of the catch when looking at completion and drop percentage. Welker is primarily a slot receiver, which in simplistic terms means he catches shorter passes that are generally easier to complete. In 2012, Welker's average catch (receiving yards - yards after catch) was 6.2 yards from the line of scrimmage, the 9th shortest in football. Among the 14 NFL players who played greater than 60% slot snaps, the average completion rate was 66.6%, compared to 58.7% for all receivers with over 50 targets. The average drop % for the slot players was 9.1%, with Welker's 12.4% ranking him 3rd worst, while the average for all was 9.2%. All slot above numbers derived from FootballFocus.com
I also looked at players who caught the ball close to the line of scrimmage, as Welker did in 2012. There were 14 NFL players who were targeted over 50 times and caught the ball, on average, less than 7.5 yards downfield. These players combined for a 64.6% completion rate, right in line with our slot receivers above, but only dropped the ball 7.3% of the time, excluding Welker's 19 drops (12.4%). It should also be noted that there is a huge range among this group, which includes both the two receivers with the worst drop rates in the NFL (over 50 targets), T.J. Graham and Early Doucet (18.4% and 22.2% drops, respectively), as well as some of the best in Percy Harvin and Mario Manningham (1.6% and 2.3 % drop rates). This leads me to wonder if this group is statistically significant, but I'll leave it in and you can decide.
Interestingly, there seems to be a drop off both in Welker's reception percentage and drop percentage after his 2009 injury. In 2008 and 2009 (drop stats are not available before 2008), his reception percentage was 80%, since it has gone from 74.8% to 73.1% to 70.2%, a significant decline. More strikingly, Welker's drop percentage, which was just over 5% combined in 2008 and 2009, has been well over double that the past 3 seasons. His drops have risen from 6 and 7 to 13, 15, and 19 the past three seasons (again, all numbers include playoffs).
Welker is, as I stated above, still a very good player. He puts up huge counting numbers and stays healthy, something which should not be discounted. There is pretty clear evidence, however, that his skills are regressing, and have been since the injury. Welker has been a huge part of the offense, but I wonder, at 32, if it makes sense to sign him to a big money multiple year contract, or to use the franchise tag on him.
