A Wes-less Offense

[ivanvamp]

Whatever your viewpoint, you can't honestly say the team is better without its most productive weapon, unless you are just trying to prove you just don't understand football.

Well, to be fair, it *is* possible that the *team* is better without Welker. If they let Welker go, add another (different) dynamic WR for less money, and use the saved $$ to upgrade, say, at safety, then it's possible that the Pats still have the best offense in the league but an improved defense, and that the overall *team* is better.

Just saying it's possible.

 

[Ring 6]

Well, to be fair, it *is* possible that the *team* is better without Welker. If they let Welker go, add another (different) dynamic WR for less money, and use the saved $$ to upgrade, say, at safety, then it's possible that the Pats still have the best offense in the league but an improved defense, and that the overall *team* is better.

Just saying it's possible.

Well, its possible to be better without Brady too.

But that isn't what this joker is saying.

Also, a reasonable replacement will cost as much or more, and the excess cap space, minimal as it would be is no guarantee of improvement either.

 

[satz]

Well, to be fair, it *is* possible that the *team* is better without Welker. If they let Welker go, add another (different) dynamic WR for less money, and use the saved $$ to upgrade, say, at safety, then it's possible that the Pats still have the best offense in the league but an improved defense, and that the overall *team* is better.

Just saying it's possible.

You mean the most atheletic outside guy like chad jackson we drafted .maybe you think a player like chad ohocho , douch gabriel ,
even stallworth , anthony gonzo or even a guy like edelman , hernandaz.

but i do understand if you tell me that we can keep at this for a few years to try to find this dynamic presence outside.you add the few year qualifier.

 

[skinnydog]

I like Wes as a player and would love to see him remain on the team, but not at any price. I really don't care if Wes gets what Jerry Rice thinks he deserves. Its about fielding the best team and that may mean you don't pay perhaps the best slot receiver ever 9 mil a year for 3-4 years. The Pats D needs help. Outside of Gronk running seam routes they have no real consistent deep threat and no deep outside threat at all. Wes operates almost exclusively in the 5 to 10 or 15 yard range and they have talent in that area. Both tight ends are targets in hat area. The running backs are threats in this area as pass catchers Edelman or whoever ends up in the slot will be a target in this area. Lloyd is an outside target in this area. If Wes leaves will his replacement be as good? No. Will it cripple their offense? Also no. Remember, they have not exactly lit it up in the playoffs the last 2 years with Wes, which pretty much proves he is not indispensable. I like Wes, but they can still have the leagues best short range passing attack without him if not a historically best short range passing attack.


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[supafly]

It'll be very interesting to see how BB plays this.

That's an understatement and a half, my friend.

This particular situation is compelling, and may go a long way towards leaning one way or the other in terms of how the immediate future looks for the N.England Patriots.

 

[Ivan]

when he's gone, what will you have to post about? Does that mean you'll leave too? It might be worth having a losing season to get rid of you.

Oh I don't know, i guess I could go to camp and take videos of you showing Brady how to throw the deep ball, or i could discuss your posts about how you know who to pay and what mistakes Belichick is making that you would never make, like paying Mankins. And I'm sure you will also have plenty of lessons for Belichick on how to draft properly. I mean seriously, what the hell do Tom Brady and Jerry Rice know about great receivers, kenny b knows that welker sucks and the Patriots would be better off without him and that can't be topped.

To be honest the only poster here that has been more ridiculous was NEM and he's gone, unless of course you are NEM, and your posts are so ridiculous that it would actually make sense.

 

[ivanvamp]

Well, its possible to be better without Brady too.

But that isn't what this joker is saying.

Well, right, kennyb is not acquitting himself very well here, that's for sure.

Also, a reasonable replacement will cost as much or more, and the excess cap space, minimal as it would be is no guarantee of improvement either.

I don't know that a reasonable replacement will cost as much or more. In fact, I doubt he would. Of course, what you mean by "reasonable replacement" comes into play. I think Jennings would cost less than Welker on the open market, and I think he'd be more than "reasonable".

And you're right - there's no guarantee that the $$ saved would improve the defense significantly.

I'm just saying that it's possible. The Pats have had a really, really good offense before without Wes Welker. In 2004 they had 437 points scored (27.3 per game, which would have put NE fourth in the league this year) but only 260 allowed for a +177 differential. Of course, that 2004 team won the SB while the Pats with Welker never have. (not putting that on Welker; it's just a fact)

IOW, there's more than one way to skin a cat. I'm willing to lose some offense if it means getting a dominating defense. The offense could stand to lose a TD a game and it would still be an elite offense. But if the defense gave up a TD less a game, it would go from a little above average (20.7 per game) to the best in the NFL (about 2 points better than Sea).

That's a trade I'd be willing to make.

 

[Deus Irae]

when he's gone, what will you have to post about? Does that mean you'll leave too? It might be worth having a losing season to get rid of you.

Think first. Then post.

 

[Ivan]

Well, to be fair, it *is* possible that the *team* is better without Welker. If they let Welker go, add another (different) dynamic WR for less money, and use the saved $$ to upgrade, say, at safety, then it's possible that the Pats still have the best offense in the league but an improved defense, and that the overall *team* is better.

Just saying it's possible.

If they get rid of welker they better go out an get an all pro C and an all pro RG because Brady is no longer going to have the luxury of escaping every blitz by having a receiver open in 2 seconds or less, and if they don't have the best OL in football by a mile Brady is going to take a beating.

 

[kennyb]

If they get rid of welker they better go out an get an all pro C and an all pro RG because Brady is no longer going to have the luxury of escaping every blitz by having a receiver open in 2 seconds or less, and if they don't have the best OL in football by a mile Brady is going to take a beating.

They'll have to figure something. But welker is gone gone gone.

 

[Deus Irae]

They'll have to figure something. But welker is gone gone gone.

So, how have you become Belichick's confidant?

 

[supafly]

If they get rid of welker they better go out an get an all pro C and an all pro RG because Brady is no longer going to have the luxury of escaping every blitz by having a receiver open in 2 seconds or less, and if they don't have the best OL in football by a mile Brady is going to take a beating.

That's actually my biggest concern to be honest. I think this type of offense makes those guys look better than they are, and that isn't a knock on them because just about every year they leave us feeling impressed on some level.

With Vollmer most likely leaving and the arguable lack of talent in the interior (specifically the middle to right side--although I did personally think that Wendell did nicely at times this season), I think at the very least an argument can be strongly made that we need to bite the bullet and franchise Welker for the upcoming season if they don't think they'll reach common ground.

That would at least give them 2 drafts for April 2013/2014 + 2 free agent periods, along with some developmental time for certain players and positions to try and better prepare for when he's gone.

Just a thought/concern that comes to mind. My worry is that there may be too many variables of change that would occur this year alone.

 

[Ivan]

So, how have you become Belichick's confidant?

You must have missed it, kennyb is going to camp this summer to teach Brady how to throw the deep ball. Belichick is just a pawn, kennyb is the brains of the operation. It may well be that he is Ernie Adams and has been the man behind the curtain all these years. I guess you could say that it's time for kennyb to come out of the closet.

 

[Ivan]

That's actually my biggest concern to be honest. I think this type of offense makes those guys look better than they are, and that isn't a knock on them because just about every year they leave us feeling impressed on some level.

With Vollmer most likely leaving and the arguable lack of talent in the interior (specifically the middle to right side--although I did personally think that Wendell did nicely at times this season), I think at the very least an argument can be strongly made that we need to bite the bullet and franchise Welker for the upcoming season if they don't think they'll reach common ground.

That would at least give them 2 drafts for April 2013/2014 + 2 free agent periods, along with some developmental time for certain players and positions to try and better prepare for when he's gone.

Just a thought/concern that comes to mind. My worry is that there may be too many variables of change that would occur this year alone.

Agree completely, and i think what many here take completely for granted is that when Belichick brought Welker in it was following the 2006 season where Brady had no release valve and had to hold onto the ball forever for receivers to get open; Reche Caldwell was the number 1. Welker's subsequent production was off the charts and i would bet well exceeded any hopes they had for him, but he brought them exactly what they expected and needed in being able to keep Brady upright and defeat blitzes. Since he arrived they have had the best offense in football history, and the fact that many want them to get rid of the most important skill player in it makes absolutely no sense to me. welker is the key to Brady defeating the blitz, and if they get rid of him they had better upgrade the interior OL big time because otherwise Brady is going to get killed.

 

[supafly]

They'll have to figure something. But welker is gone gone gone.

We have absolutely no idea about all of the angles that Belichick and co. have been reviewing in terms of this potential move.

It's certainly possible that both sides want to stay together, but they simply have not figured out how to reach an acceptable agreement. With some players it's more than just the dollars and cents aspect. There are many things to be considered from both parties.

Even if Welker is indeed "gone," it may not be until next March 2014. They figured out how to pay him 9.5, one would think that they could reasonably add another 1.5 to keep him again if it comes down to it.

 

[Ivan]

That's actually my biggest concern to be honest. I think this type of offense makes those guys look better than they are, and that isn't a knock on them because just about every year they leave us feeling impressed on some level.

With Vollmer most likely leaving and the arguable lack of talent in the interior (specifically the middle to right side--although I did personally think that Wendell did nicely at times this season), I think at the very least an argument can be strongly made that we need to bite the bullet and franchise Welker for the upcoming season if they don't think they'll reach common ground.

That would at least give them 2 drafts for April 2013/2014 + 2 free agent periods, along with some developmental time for certain players and positions to try and better prepare for when he's gone.

Just a thought/concern that comes to mind. My worry is that there may be too many variables of change that would occur this year alone.

It is early yet but at this point I would go OL in the first and take Barrett Jones. He has been exceptional at Bama and can play every position on the OL at a high level. I don't like,losing Vollmer but hopefully cannon can step up and the TE's can help outside, inside is what worries me most. I doubt Warmack will be available but OL is a strength in the first round and they can get a really good player at 28.

 

[Ring 6]

Well, right, kennyb is not acquitting himself very well here, that's for sure.



I don't know that a reasonable replacement will cost as much or more. In fact, I doubt he would. Of course, what you mean by "reasonable replacement" comes into play. I think Jennings would cost less than Welker on the open market, and I think he'd be more than "reasonable".

Jennings will probably get a bigger contract than Welker, simply due to age. (But not a higher cap hit than Welkers tag)
In any event the difference between the open market contract of Welker and Jennings isn't going to be enough to do much with.

And you're right - there's no guarantee that the $$ saved would improve the defense significantly.

I'm just saying that it's possible. The Pats have had a really, really good offense before without Wes Welker. In 2004 they had 437 points scored (27.3 per game, which would have put NE fourth in the league this year) but only 260 allowed for a +177 differential. Of course, that 2004 team won the SB while the Pats with Welker never have. (not putting that on Welker; it's just a fact)

But every other part of that team was better than we have now, with the exception of TE.
Its hard to argue getting rid of a guy is a good move because we scored 120 fewer points without him with an otherwise more talented team.
Are you really saying you would be happy getting rid of Welker and scoring 120 fewer points?

IOW, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

But diminishing the best area of your team (the passing offense) isn't the wisest one.

I'm willing to lose some offense if it means getting a dominating defense.

Wes Welkers contract isn't the reason we don't have a dominating defense. There are many other ways to find the 5-7mill cap room he would take up in year one. And crazy to think that 5-7mill would make our D dominant.

The offense could stand to lose a TD a game and it would still be an elite offense.

Huh? We couldn't beat Az, SF at home or Seattle or Baltimore on the road. Losing 1 TD per game would have resulted in losing to the Jets, Bills, and maybe Fins and Jags. Losing 1 TD on offense makes us 10-6 at best, and possibly 8-8.

But if the defense gave up a TD less a game, it would go from a little above average (20.7 per game) to the best in the NFL (about 2 points better than Sea).

What does any of that have to do with Welker? You realize you just tried to argue 5-7 mill spent between a Welker replacement and defense is supposed to turn us into the best defense in the NFL when we just lost a playoff game by watching the mediocre Raven offense go 197 yards on 3 consecutive TD drives without even putting up enough resistenace to make them convert more than 1 first down on the 3 drives combined?
Welker's money doesn't turn that into the best defense in the NFL.

That's a trade I'd be willing to make.

So hop on your unicorn and fly down to Foxboro.

 

[hovis]

Wes Welkers contract isn't the reason we don't have a dominating defense. There are many other ways to find the 5-7mill cap room he would take up in year one. And crazy to think that 5-7mill would make our D dominant.
.

You're delusional if you think Welker's contract will only be a 5-7 million cap hit. And yes, even 5-7 million can get you one top level starter or 2-3 depth signings if you spend your money wisely.

 

[Ring 6]

You're delusional if you think Welker's contract will only be a 5-7 million cap hit. And yes, even 5-7 million can get you one top level starter or 2-3 depth signings if you spend your money wisely.

Why?
Even at 4/40 with 20mill up front and salaries of 1mill, 4mill, 7mill, 8mill, the first year hit is 6 mill. First year hits are always low.

The suggestion wasn't whether you can get a starter or 2-3 backups, the suggestion was if you could take that money and give us the best defense in the NFL.
We haven't even broached how much of that 5-7 mill you have to spend on a replacement, since we have a total of 1 legit WR under contract.

 

[Deus Irae]

You're delusional if you think Welker's contract will only be a 5-7 million cap hit. And yes, even 5-7 million can get you one top level starter or 2-3 depth signings if you spend your money wisely.

Are you saying that, if Welker signed a 3 year, $27 million dollar deal, for example, the team isn't bright enough to figure out how to make that a $7 million dollar cap hit in year one?