Much speculation abounds regarding whether the Patriots will re-sign Welker, or if they don't, then signing Amendola. Perhaps they sign both, suggests another thread. We'll see. But let's weigh the relative merits of each, including likely salary (which, admittedly, is a guess).
Tale of the Tape
Welker: 32 years old, 5'9", 190 lbs
Amendola: 27 years old, 5'11", 183 lbs
NFL Combine Numbers
Welker: 4.61 in the 40, 7.09 in the 3-cone, 4.01 in the shuttle
Amendola: 4.68 in the 40, 6.81 in the 3-cone, 4.25 in the shuttle
*Note: Amendola ran 4.58 in the 40 on his pro day; Welker ran 4.65 on his pro day.
Best NFL Season Stats
Welker: 2011 - 122 rec, 1569 yds, 9 td, 12.9 ypc
Amendola: 2010 - 85 rec, 689 yds, 3 td, 8.1 ypc
Avg NFL Game Stats
Welker: 5.5 rec, 61.3 yds, 0.3 td, 11.2 ypc
Amendola: 4.7 rec, 41.1 yds, 0.2 td, 8.8 ypc
QB throwing him the ball
Welker: Tom F-in Brady in his prime
Amendola: Sam Bradford in his developmental years
Average Games Played Per Season
Welker: 15.6
Amendola: 10.5
Likely 2013 Salary
Welker: $7-10 million
Amendola: $2-4 million
So Amendola is a younger, taller, quicker version of Welker, who does not appear to be as durable. He's also a lot less productive, though obviously the offense and QB throwing them the ball makes a huge difference. Just as we wouldn't hold Welker's 67 rec, 687 yds season in 2006 with Miami against him, because Joey Harrington was the QB, we can't say that Amendola's 85 rec, 689 yds season in 2010 is his ceiling, given who was throwing him the ball. Bradford is better than Harrington was, but the point is that with a HOF quarterback, there's a pretty good chance that a healthy Amendola would be extremely productive here.
Welker is more of a proven commodity, as his best seasons have dwarfed Amendola's, and he's done it in the NFL and, particularly, here in New England, for a while. We *know* what Welker can do, and it's extremely impressive. Dude is a stud, plain and simple. Amendola...well, we don't really know. We do know he's younger, taller, a bit quicker, and has real ability, and he *probably* would do well here. I don't think he would replicate Welker's numbers, but I think it's reasonable that if he were healthy, a 90 rec, 1000 yd, 5 td season would be a good expectation.
One of the big factors, of course, is the cost difference. Welker could cost as much as 3-5 times what Amendola will. That's enormous. That difference could be the difference between landing an Ed Reed as well. So the question isn't really Amendola vs. Welker. It's Amendola + X vs. Welker. What would the X be, and how helpful would it be to the Patriots? Who knows.
I'm not advocating the Pats go either way here. Personally, I love Welker and want him here. But if they go with Amendola, I think, should he be healthy (a big if), he'd be very productive and we'd love his game. And if they make good use of the $$ they'd save, Amendola + X could represent an improvement for the team as a whole.
We shall see. It's going to be very, very interesting.
Tale of the Tape
Welker: 32 years old, 5'9", 190 lbs
Amendola: 27 years old, 5'11", 183 lbs
NFL Combine Numbers
Welker: 4.61 in the 40, 7.09 in the 3-cone, 4.01 in the shuttle
Amendola: 4.68 in the 40, 6.81 in the 3-cone, 4.25 in the shuttle
*Note: Amendola ran 4.58 in the 40 on his pro day; Welker ran 4.65 on his pro day.
Best NFL Season Stats
Welker: 2011 - 122 rec, 1569 yds, 9 td, 12.9 ypc
Amendola: 2010 - 85 rec, 689 yds, 3 td, 8.1 ypc
Avg NFL Game Stats
Welker: 5.5 rec, 61.3 yds, 0.3 td, 11.2 ypc
Amendola: 4.7 rec, 41.1 yds, 0.2 td, 8.8 ypc
QB throwing him the ball
Welker: Tom F-in Brady in his prime
Amendola: Sam Bradford in his developmental years
Average Games Played Per Season
Welker: 15.6
Amendola: 10.5
Likely 2013 Salary
Welker: $7-10 million
Amendola: $2-4 million
So Amendola is a younger, taller, quicker version of Welker, who does not appear to be as durable. He's also a lot less productive, though obviously the offense and QB throwing them the ball makes a huge difference. Just as we wouldn't hold Welker's 67 rec, 687 yds season in 2006 with Miami against him, because Joey Harrington was the QB, we can't say that Amendola's 85 rec, 689 yds season in 2010 is his ceiling, given who was throwing him the ball. Bradford is better than Harrington was, but the point is that with a HOF quarterback, there's a pretty good chance that a healthy Amendola would be extremely productive here.
Welker is more of a proven commodity, as his best seasons have dwarfed Amendola's, and he's done it in the NFL and, particularly, here in New England, for a while. We *know* what Welker can do, and it's extremely impressive. Dude is a stud, plain and simple. Amendola...well, we don't really know. We do know he's younger, taller, a bit quicker, and has real ability, and he *probably* would do well here. I don't think he would replicate Welker's numbers, but I think it's reasonable that if he were healthy, a 90 rec, 1000 yd, 5 td season would be a good expectation.
One of the big factors, of course, is the cost difference. Welker could cost as much as 3-5 times what Amendola will. That's enormous. That difference could be the difference between landing an Ed Reed as well. So the question isn't really Amendola vs. Welker. It's Amendola + X vs. Welker. What would the X be, and how helpful would it be to the Patriots? Who knows.
I'm not advocating the Pats go either way here. Personally, I love Welker and want him here. But if they go with Amendola, I think, should he be healthy (a big if), he'd be very productive and we'd love his game. And if they make good use of the $$ they'd save, Amendola + X could represent an improvement for the team as a whole.
We shall see. It's going to be very, very interesting.