A Different Take: Welker vs. Amendola

[ivanvamp]

Much speculation abounds regarding whether the Patriots will re-sign Welker, or if they don't, then signing Amendola. Perhaps they sign both, suggests another thread. We'll see. But let's weigh the relative merits of each, including likely salary (which, admittedly, is a guess).

Tale of the Tape
Welker: 32 years old, 5'9", 190 lbs
Amendola: 27 years old, 5'11", 183 lbs

NFL Combine Numbers
Welker: 4.61 in the 40, 7.09 in the 3-cone, 4.01 in the shuttle
Amendola: 4.68 in the 40, 6.81 in the 3-cone, 4.25 in the shuttle

*Note: Amendola ran 4.58 in the 40 on his pro day; Welker ran 4.65 on his pro day.

Best NFL Season Stats
Welker: 2011 - 122 rec, 1569 yds, 9 td, 12.9 ypc
Amendola: 2010 - 85 rec, 689 yds, 3 td, 8.1 ypc

Avg NFL Game Stats
Welker: 5.5 rec, 61.3 yds, 0.3 td, 11.2 ypc
Amendola: 4.7 rec, 41.1 yds, 0.2 td, 8.8 ypc

QB throwing him the ball
Welker: Tom F-in Brady in his prime
Amendola: Sam Bradford in his developmental years

Average Games Played Per Season
Welker: 15.6
Amendola: 10.5

Likely 2013 Salary
Welker: $7-10 million
Amendola: $2-4 million


So Amendola is a younger, taller, quicker version of Welker, who does not appear to be as durable. He's also a lot less productive, though obviously the offense and QB throwing them the ball makes a huge difference. Just as we wouldn't hold Welker's 67 rec, 687 yds season in 2006 with Miami against him, because Joey Harrington was the QB, we can't say that Amendola's 85 rec, 689 yds season in 2010 is his ceiling, given who was throwing him the ball. Bradford is better than Harrington was, but the point is that with a HOF quarterback, there's a pretty good chance that a healthy Amendola would be extremely productive here.

Welker is more of a proven commodity, as his best seasons have dwarfed Amendola's, and he's done it in the NFL and, particularly, here in New England, for a while. We *know* what Welker can do, and it's extremely impressive. Dude is a stud, plain and simple. Amendola...well, we don't really know. We do know he's younger, taller, a bit quicker, and has real ability, and he *probably* would do well here. I don't think he would replicate Welker's numbers, but I think it's reasonable that if he were healthy, a 90 rec, 1000 yd, 5 td season would be a good expectation.

One of the big factors, of course, is the cost difference. Welker could cost as much as 3-5 times what Amendola will. That's enormous. That difference could be the difference between landing an Ed Reed as well. So the question isn't really Amendola vs. Welker. It's Amendola + X vs. Welker. What would the X be, and how helpful would it be to the Patriots? Who knows.

I'm not advocating the Pats go either way here. Personally, I love Welker and want him here. But if they go with Amendola, I think, should he be healthy (a big if), he'd be very productive and we'd love his game. And if they make good use of the $$ they'd save, Amendola + X could represent an improvement for the team as a whole.

We shall see. It's going to be very, very interesting.

 

[Nunchucks]

Amendola has the potential to be much better and more dynamic than Welker. However, the durability issues scares the crap out of me. Sure, some players have injury issues for the first couple of years in the league and then never get hurt again (Thomas Jones for example). However, this guy doesn't suffer nagging injuries, he just gets plain injured.

 

[BrickPat]

The 'Brady Factor' obviously had a big impact Welker's stats but that doesn't translate into Amendola being as productive. Brady also threw the ball to Chad Jackson, Joey Galloway, Ocho Cinco, etc...

 

[patman52]

Why do you think he signs a deal for 3 mill a year?

 

[ivanvamp]

The 'Brady Factor' obviously had a big impact Welker's stats but that doesn't translate into Amendola being as productive. Brady also threw the ball to Chad Jackson, Joey Galloway, Ocho Cinco, etc...

I don't know of a single person on planet earth that thinks that Amendola, should he become a Patriot, would catch about 110-120 passes a season for 1200+ yards, like Welker has with New England.

In my OP, I said, "I don't think he would replicate Welker's numbers, but I think it's reasonable that if he were healthy, a 90 rec, 1000 yd, 5 td season would be a good expectation."

 

[Nunchucks]

I don't know of a single person on planet earth that thinks that Amendola, should he become a Patriot, would catch about 110-120 passes a season for 1200+ yards, like Welker has with New England.

In my OP, I said, "I don't think he would replicate Welker's numbers, but I think it's reasonable that if he were healthy, a 90 rec, 1000 yd, 5 td season would be a good expectation."

If he could stay healthy, I do not see why he wouldn't be able to catch 100 balls. He was the best receiver on a crappy team and was ridiculous, until he got hurt.

 

[Froob]

I think we should get both assuming Amendola isn't breaking the bank.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

If he could stay healthy, I do not see why he wouldn't be able to catch 100 balls. He was the best receiver on a crappy team and was ridiculous, until he got hurt.

If pigs had wings....


Let's bet the franchise and TFB's last years on another player Made of Glass

 

[FCB02062]

And how do you know this Amendola fella can actually learn and understand the playbook when so many receivers brought into this apparent MIT/Cal Tech offense haven't been able to get a hold of it??????? Galloway, Chad Jackson, Dog Gabriel, Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, Chad Johnson.......

 

[borg]

If pigs had wings....


Let's bet the franchise and TFB's last years on another player Made of Glass

Do you not consider Gronk injury prone?

 

[BrickPat]

Do you not consider Gronk injury prone?

Yes but Gronk is on the team now as is a durable and productive Welker. Getting rid of the proven and durable slot guy for an injury prone one isn't a good idea.

Of course the Pats will have to go to Plan B if another team back ups the Brinks truck and overpays for WW but I'm leery of DA. Reminds me of Edelman with the injuries.

 

[Nunchucks]

If pigs had wings....


Let's bet the franchise and TFB's last years on another player Made of Glass

I am not advocating the signing of Amendola over Welker. I am just saying that if he could stay healthy, huge if, that Amendola probably would be able to match Welker's production.

 

[signbabybrady]

That is the right way to look at it and a nice breakdown.

I don't think he would replicate Welker's numbers, but I think it's reasonable that if he were healthy, a 90 rec, 1000 yd, 5 td season would be a good expectation.

I think I would have just preferred you used his best year as a reasonable expectation as I think that would be a good start to replaceing Wes. I think your points as to why he could produce more here are valid but you could also come up with some reasons why it would be tough to produce as much. With the Rams he was the first or second target that year and he will at best be the third target and possibly fourth depending on if Lloyd stayed and who they like better or who repalces Lloyd.

It's Amendola + X vs. Welker.

This is the perfect way to put it as you need to factor that we will use the money intended for Wes in other ways if he doesnt get it.

Really the only thing I don't entirely get about the Amendola thing is that I think I would just prefer that Edelman replace Wes and we get a different skilled WR to better complement what we have.

Comparing Edelman to Amendola I think Edelman would be a touch cheaper and is a little younger but has not been as productive. I can ignore production slightly as Edelman has been in the system and working with Tom and although the sample size is small (due to his developement and injuries) I think we can all agree he has developed and understands what he is doing and Tom has a feel for him which is not automatic with Amendola. One returns Kicks the other Punts but I would call Edelman the better of the two as IMO he is one of the best PRers in the league. They both have some durability issues but I beleive Amendola has missed more time the last few years and has more wear on the tires.

 

[peterforpats]

here's a fact- every player is one play away from a season(or career) ending injury. every player is a crap shoot on whether they stay healthy or not.

 

[naF staP]

QB throwing him the ball
Welker: Tom F-in Brady in his prime
Amendola: Sam Bradford in his developmental years


Likely 2013 Salary
Welker: $7-10 million
Amendola: $2-4 million
.

What? Who cares about what they did at the combine, the proof is on the field and Amendola can not stay on it!! He does the Patriots no good being on the bench.

I don't buy the whole who the QB is throwing to the slot receiver. Different story for a mid to deeper receiver but a slot receiver runs shorter routes, most QB's should be able to do well with a good slot receiver. Heck, Welker caught 111 passes for 1,165 yard with Matt Cassell throwing to him. So the Bradford argument means nothing to me.

As for the 2013 salary range, you are off on this. It has been reported that Amendola's going rate is going to be around $6 million per year.


Per rotoworld...
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport says "at this point it looks like" Danny Amendola will be able to test the free-agent market.
"The Rams have their value on him. We'll see if he beats it in [free agency]," added Rapoport. The fragile slot receiver has missed 20 games over the last two seasons, and he isn't worth the $10-plus million on the franchise tag. Our own Evan Silva set Amendola's value at around $6 million per year in his Top 50 Free Agency Forecast. Rapoport names the 49ers and Patriots as suitors.

So you gotta look at it like this... Do you pay $6 million for a china made slot receiver who the only thing he proved in the last 2 years is that he can't stay on the field or do you spend a couple extra million $ on a proven, durable, dependable Welker who helps make this offense much better? It's a no brainer. Heck, it's easy to shuffle that extra couple million $ around to make it work.

And the whole age thing... Well, if Amendola is getting hurt like he has been the past couple years then I seriously doubt that will improve each year he gets older. Especially with the hits a slot receiver takes. Especially the hits a Patriots slot receiver takes with TFB threading the needle like he can. For Welker, he continues to do his thing without slowing down or showing his age. Some players can do that, Welker looks like one of those players.

Dig that wallet out of the tight back pocket and pay Welker to stay.

 

[DocHoliday]

Why all this hubub?

If Welker leaves, you don't need to replace Wes Welker. You can't replace him. You can plug someone who is not as good.

If you're going to do that, you're better off changing the offense. Doesn't mean you have to get rid of the "short quick white guy", but without Welker it's a different offense and the ball distribution will (have to) change.

Let me reiterate - if Welker leaves, the offense will change. No two ways around it. This offense won't work if the slot guy isn't getting as open or getting as much production as Wes Welker. That's not necessarily a bad thing, just a fact of the game that needs to be dealt with.

 

[Ivan]

Amendola has the potential to be much better and more dynamic than Welker. .

So does Chad Jackson.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Do you not consider Gronk injury prone?

I don't. He has been injured but a fluke arm break on a PAT? Then what doctors called the perfect storm when he landed on it in the playoffs?

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Maybe letting welker go is better for us. Forces Brady to develop chemistry with others, doesn't have to lean on welker. Lets face it, since the 04 Super Bowl win how man SB's do we have? What did a elite offense do? Nothing in terms of championships. Get a good D, Brady can make a average reciever good for us. Heck we have stallworth, branch, Edelman, gronk, ahern, Ballard. Vereen and Ridley at rb. Get another reciever, fix the D and we will be set for a playoff run. Maybe bb realizes this, D wins championships.

 

[signbabybrady]

Maybe letting welker go is better for us. Forces Brady to develop chemistry with others, doesn't have to lean on welker. Lets face it, since the 04 Super Bowl win how man SB's do we have? What did a elite offense do? Nothing in terms of championships. Get a good D, Brady can make a average reciever good for us. Heck we have stallworth, branch, Edelman, gronk, ahern, Ballard. Vereen and Ridley at rb. Get another reciever, fix the D and we will be set for a playoff run. Maybe bb realizes this, D wins championships.

There is some logic to this but I think it gets way overplayed. This was the same thing we were saying about Moss leaving and there was some truth to it when he left but yet somehow we are right back here saying it again about Wes now and if Wes leaves he will probably get that much more locked into Gronk and/or Ahern. I think bottom line is you want that kind of binky as it means production but it doesnt have to be Wes.