A Different Take: Welker vs. Amendola

[Frezo]

Numbers from their first 4 seasons as a WR...

Welker:

64 games
30 starts
319 receptions
3461 yards
10.8 YPR
12 TDs


Amendola

42 games
17 starts
196 receptions
1726 yards
8.8 YPR
7 TDs

Even if you "even up" in order to avoid the Amendola injury factor, you get

Amendola

64 games
25.84 starts
298 receptions
2624 yards
8.8 YPR
10.5 TDs

Even if you pretend that being on the field doesn't really count and have no issue with screwing over Welker for his first two seasons, Welker's numbers are still clearly superior. Amendola's 8.8 YPR is simply too far below Welker's 10.8.

Here's their numbers from their first two seasons as a WR. That would be WW's 3rd and 4th seasons and AD's 1st and 2nd. They were both playing for crappy teams.

DA:
REC: 128
YDS: 1015
TD: 4

WW:
REC: 96
YDS: 1121
TD: 1

I find it misleading to compare their stats when Welker was playing on an offense with Brady who consistently put up passing records in various categories and had shown a marked tendency to utilize the slot receiver. If DA had spent years 3 and 4 in your comparison with Peyton Manning it would have more teeth for me. I see no reason to not believe that DA's numbers would significantly increase in the Pat's system with Brady at the helm like Welker's did in his first year as a Pat.

 

[Deus Irae]

Here's their numbers from their first two seasons as a WR. That would be WW's 3rd and 4th seasons and AD's 1st and 2nd. They were both playing for crappy teams.

DA:
REC: 128
YDS: 1015
TD: 4

WW:
REC: 96
YDS: 1121
TD: 1

I find it misleading to compare their stats when Welker was playing on an offense with Brady who consistently put up passing records in various categories and had shown a marked tendency to utilize the slot receiver. If DA had spent years 3 and 4 in your comparison with Peyton Manning it would have more teeth for me. I see no reason to not believe that DA's numbers would significantly increase in the Pat's system with Brady at the helm like Welker's did in his first year as a Pat.

Wait..... you find it misleading to use the Brady numbers, but it's ok to use the stiff QBs that Welker had in Miami in a situation where Welker was developing and fighting for time on a team that had legitimate receiving threats like Chambers and a young/healthy McMichael while Amendola was stepping in with a team that had no established WRs or TEs (McMichael had been in decline since 2007) of any quality to demand the ball?


Talk about misleading..... C'mon, if you're going to play the pick-and-choose, it has to go both ways.

 

[ivanvamp]

But that's an incredibly misleading statistic. Yes, it was Welker's "best" season, but it was also only his second real season, not his fourth.

You are flat wrong here. It was Welker's third season. Fine, if you want to call it his second "real" season, fine. Lame, but fine. But Amendola's best year was also his actual second season, and both seasons were when each guy was 25 years of age. It wasn't Welker's "second real" season and Amendola's "fourth".

EDIT: I think I understand here....was there a claim that Welker's 67 yard season was his fourth? If so, I apologize, for I misunderstood what you were getting at here. I thought you were saying that Welker's best season was his second, while Amendola's best season was his fourth. Looks like that's not what you were saying, so my bad.

Well, it really depends on your parameters for "very, very productive". For example, last year was the first time in his career that Amendola averaged above 9.0 ypc, when he averaged 10.6. Welker's lowest ever, outside of his injury year, is 10.3 and, even in his injury year, he was at 9.9. Welker's career average is 11.2, and Amendola's is 8.8.

So, yes it's true that if you take Amendola's best numbers, they match up with Welker's worst numbers, but he has done nothing to indicate that he can match up anywhere near Welker's best numbers.

Deus, I'm on your side on the "I want to keep Welker" issue. But you have to be fair. That bolded part could also have been said about WES WELKER prior to him coming to the Patriots. Yes, he had ability, and yes he had a pretty decent 2006 at age 25. But nobody could have foreseen 110-120 receptions and 1200-1400 yds a year coming from him - it basically meant a *doubling* of what he had done in his best season prior to that.

So just as you say, "he (Amendola) has done nothing to indicate that he can match up anywhere near Welker's best numbers",

we could have said, "he (Welker) had done nothing to indicate that he could have matched up anywhere near (what would become) Welker's best numbers".

This isn't an argument to say that Amendola will, should he come here, produce 110-120 receptions for 1200-1400 yards. I'm not saying that. I *am* saying that with a pretty lousy QB he put up 85 receptions for 689 yards at age 25.

Again, to compare:

Welker (age 25, 3rd season): 67 rec, 687 yds, 10.3 ypc, 1 td
Amendola (age 25, 2nd season): 85 rec, 689 yds, 8.1 ypc, 3 td

I don't know how you look at that and say it was obvious that Welker was going to become this statistical monster that he's become, while there's nothing to indicate that Amendola could even come close to that. It's totally reasonable to think that Amendola, if he stays healthy (a big IF), could be a 90 rec, 1000 yard player here in New England. Not quite Welker numbers, but very, very productive.

 

[ivanvamp]

Just for fun, consider this:

Career (so this includes Welker's great Patriots years MINUS 2005, b/c they didn't keep stats for targets so I had to exclude everything or it skewed the numbers)

Player - Targets - Receptions - Rec % - Yds - Yds/Target
Amendola - 293 - 196 - 66.9% - 1,726 - 5.9
Welker - 1,024 - 739 - 72.1% - 8,146 - 7.9

Same numbers minus Welker's years with Brady (so I'm going with Welker's 2006 and 2008 seasons, and all of Amendola's seasons):

Player - Targets - Receptions - Rec % - Yds - Yds/Target
Amendola - 293 - 196 - 66.9% - 1,726 - 5.9
Welker - 249 - 178 - 71.5% - 1,852 - 7.4

Either way you look at it, Welker is more productive than Amendola. So I hope that nobody here thinks Amendola is *AS GOOD AS* Wes Welker. He is not. He just isn't. My argument, to make it clear once again, is that Amendola can be very productive here - not generating Welker's ridiculous numbers, but he can be very productive. And if they go with him as a younger, cheaper alternative, it frees up money to help elsewhere. And if Amendola can stay healthy, the offense will be just fine thank you.

I'd still rather keep Wes.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Amendola is not a younger Wes Welker. Just because they're both short white receivers with similar physical measurables, does not mean they are similar players. Welker has an uncanny ability to make precise cuts to get open in very little time, and he's extremely tough as well.

The Patriots offense clearly suffered when they tried their experiment of sitting Welker the first few games of the year.

.

 

[Frezo]

Wait..... you find it misleading to use the Brady numbers, but it's ok to use the stiff QBs that Welker had in Miami in a situation where Welker was developing and fighting for time on a team that had legitimate receiving threats like Chambers and a young/healthy McMichael while Amendola was stepping in with a team that had no established WRs or TEs (McMichael had been in decline since 2007) of any quality to demand the ball?


Talk about misleading..... C'mon, if you're going to play the pick-and-choose, it has to go both ways.

So DA played with lousy WRs on the Rams and WW didn't with the Dolphins. Got it. This means that defenses that played the Rams put their #1 pass defender(s) on DA but didn't on WW when they played the Dolphins. Yet DA still managed to match WW's stats in their first two years as WRs.

"What we have heeya is a failya to communicate!"

All I am saying is that based on the proficiency of the Pat's offense and Brady, is that DA's stats will increase in New England. No, they likely will not match WW's. I would expect somewhere around 950 yards. Why is this so far fetched?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

They're not similar players.
The Pats spent a 2nd round pick to get Welker because when he played against them they couldn't stop him. He was too quick, got open too fast, the Pats defense had nobody who could follow him.

Amendola by almost every measure is not as good as Welker even just comparing Welker's Miami years. Amendola would also have a hard time cracking 900 yards even with lots of receptions, because he doesn't have a high ypc number, ever. Amendola is also injury prone.

 

[Deus Irae]

Deus, I'm on your side on the "I want to keep Welker" issue. But you have to be fair. That bolded part could also have been said about WES WELKER prior to him coming to the Patriots. Yes, he had ability, and yes he had a pretty decent 2006 at age 25. But nobody could have foreseen 110-120 receptions and 1200-1400 yds a year coming from him - it basically meant a *doubling* of what he had done in his best season prior to that.

So just as you say, "he (Amendola) has done nothing to indicate that he can match up anywhere near Welker's best numbers",

we could have said, "he (Welker) had done nothing to indicate that he could have matched up anywhere near (what would become) Welker's best numbers".

Now you're battling strawmen. I never claimed that Welker was clearly going to become the player he became, although I've noted that he was clearly making rapid improvement in his game. It was highly unlikely that Welker would become the player he's become, in fact, because no such player had existed in the history of the NFL. That's the point. To expect that Amendola is just going to step in and become the same "never before seen" type of player is theoretically possible, but the odds are stacked against it.

This isn't an argument to say that Amendola will, should he come here, produce 110-120 receptions for 1200-1400 yards. I'm not saying that. I *am* saying that with a pretty lousy QB he put up 85 receptions for 689 yards at age 25.

Again, to compare:

Welker (age 25, 3rd season): 67 rec, 687 yds, 10.3 ypc, 1 td
Amendola (age 25, 2nd season): 85 rec, 689 yds, 8.1 ypc, 3 td

And now we're back to the point where the pro-Amendola people are cherry picking the stats, and being completely misleading, while crying that it's misleading to use the Brady years for Welker....

 

[Deus Irae]

So DA played with lousy WRs on the Rams and WW didn't with the Dolphins. Got it. This means that defenses that played the Rams put their #1 pass defender(s) on DA but didn't on WW when they played the Dolphins. Yet DA still managed to match WW's stats in their first two years as WRs.

Except that your claim isn't supported by history. Amendola was the slot guy coming in, just as Welker was. Neither was getting the starts or drawing the top cover guys right out of the chute.

All I am saying is that based on the proficiency of the Pat's offense and Brady, is that DA's stats will increase in New England. No, they likely will not match WW's. I would expect somewhere around 950 yards. Why is this so far fetched?

You're guessing about Amendola, and he could turn out to be Chad Johnson instead of Wes Welker. In order to make your argument even feasible, you have to suddenly envision a Danny Amendola who can play 140 out of 144 games after only playing in 42 of his first 64 games, and you have to envision him being a model of consistent production during that time. Is it possible that he can make such a radical transformation? Sure, it's possible. But why people have this need to ignore what Amendola is, and to make him into something he's never been, in order to justify siding with the Patriots about a really stupid idea is something for them to ask themselves.

 

[ivanvamp]

Now you're battling strawmen. I never claimed that Welker was clearly going to become the player he became, although I've noted that he was clearly making rapid improvement in his game. It was highly unlikely that Welker would become the player he's become, in fact, because no such player had existed in the history of the NFL. That's the point. To expect that Amendola is just going to step in and become the same "never before seen" type of player is theoretically possible, but the odds are stacked against it.

Actually, it's you that's arguing against strawmen. I've never ever ever ever said that Amendola is "just going to step in and become the same 'never before seen' type of player" Wes Welker is. I've been thoroughly consistent in my claim that Amendola has shown enough that it is reasonable to expect him to be a very productive receiver here in New England, though he would not match Welker's production.

And now we're back to the point where the pro-Amendola people are cherry picking the stats, and being completely misleading, while crying that it's misleading to use the Brady years for Welker....[/QUOTE]

Don't be ridiculous. First off, I'm not the one who is "crying that it's misleading to use the Brady years for Welker"...that must be someone else in this thread with whom you're arguing, but it's not me. Second, I'm not cherry-picking stats. I'm pointing out the numbers at a similar point in their respective careers. Welker before Brady, and Amendola before Brady (if, indeed, he comes here). There's no doubt that Brady and the Patriots' system has made Welker better, though I am in agreement with you that Welker always had ability. A HOF quarterback is naturally going to improve your game as a WR....more passes will be on target, they'll be thrown in spots that are easier to catch, they'll hit you in stride so you can get more YAC, etc.

I'm not even sure what you're trying to argue here, Deus. Because you obviously have me mixed up with someone else.

 

[ivanvamp]

Well, one more thing to compare now: contracts.

Welker: 2 years, $12 million (6.0 AAV)
Amendola: 5 years, $31 million (6.2 AAV)

And now we'll get a chance to see what Amendola can do in the Pats' system. My prediction is that he'll do very well, but of course he won't replicate Welker's numbers. The question is whether the offense as a whole will be as good. Seems like it probably won't be, but hey, you never know. Still a long way to go this offseason.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

What separates Welker more than anything is that he's a running back at heart (and actually was a top RB in high school). His yards after catch were ridiculous, most of it in heavy traffic. And he was a 1st down machine. I don't see a lot of stats about receivers and first downs, but he must have led the league in that category repeatedly. I'd be surprised if Amendola can run at anywhere near that level after the catch, so they're going to have to get him the ball a little further downfield.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I don't think it's a comparison of stats ... I think it came down to age.

 

[ivanvamp]

What separates Welker more than anything is that he's a running back at heart (and actually was a top RB in high school). His yards after catch were ridiculous, most of it in heavy traffic. And he was a 1st down machine. I don't see a lot of stats about receivers and first downs, but he must have led the league in that category repeatedly. I'd be surprised if Amendola can run at anywhere near that level after the catch, so they're going to have to get him the ball a little further downfield.

Welker
- 118 rec
- 619 yac
- 11.5 ypc
- 5.2 yac per reception
- average reception caught 6.3 yards downfield
- 72 1st downs
- 0.60 1st downs per reception

Amendola
- 63 rec
- 253 yac
- 10.6 ypc
- 4.0 yac per reception
- average reception caught 6.6 yards downfield
- 38 1st downs
- 0.60 1st downs per reception