A Different Take: Welker vs. Amendola

[Gumby]

If he could stay healthy, I do not see why he wouldn't be able to catch 100 balls. He was the best receiver on a crappy team and was ridiculous, until he got hurt.

BLUF: without considering cap (the elephant in room); i would prefer WW.

That said, 1 thing to consider on DA is that IMO he is less likely to be injured w/ Pats.

TB throws a better targeted ball, that allows the recvr to catch in stride and thereby have a greater chance of avoiding the hits that cause the injury.

also as one of many threats gronkadez etc instead of THE THREAT, teams like Ratbids who specially target the top threats for intimidation hits (afccg-WW AH) would be less likely to specifically target him.

as someone else said though-all just 1 hit away.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I don't. He has been injured but a fluke arm break on a PAT? Then what doctors called the perfect storm when he landed on it in the playoffs?

Fluke or no fluke...an injury is an injury that keeps him off the field.

Gronk leaves it all on the line when he is out there..he plays with reckless abandon which unfortunately some of his body can't handle and that will probably means he will continue to miss time now and then throughout his career.

Its tough to want a player as good as him to go all out with reckless abandon on every play,but it sometimes comes with its problems...and those are injuries that will happen because he tries so hard....its a matter of you can't have your cake and eat it too.

 

[Nunchucks]

So does Chad Jackson.

I think that comparison is unfair. Amendola has been quite successful at the pro level, his issue being health. Amendola has the mental ability plus the physical tools. Chad Jackson never showed any kind of ability at the NFL level.

 

[Gumby]

Maybe letting welker go is better for us. Forces Brady to develop chemistry with others, doesn't have to lean on welker. Lets face it, since the 04 Super Bowl win how man SB's do we have? What did a elite offense do? Nothing in terms of championships. Get a good D, Brady can make a average reciever good for us. Heck we have stallworth, branch, Edelman, gronk, ahern, Ballard. Vereen and Ridley at rb. Get another reciever, fix the D and we will be set for a playoff run. Maybe bb realizes this, D wins championships.

silliness abounds this time of year.

ONE of the reasons we missed out on more afccgs/sbs is that pats had to force brady to develop chem w/ new guys (d branch leave in FA?) and how did that ocho experiment work out for you? (i was a fan of the move and bitterly disappointed)

signbabybrady
There is some logic to this but I think it gets way overplayed. This was the same thing we were saying about Moss leaving and there was some truth to it when he left but yet somehow we are right back here saying it again about Wes now and if Wes leaves he will probably get that much more locked into Gronk and/or Ahern. I think bottom line is you want that kind of binky as it means production but it doesnt have to be Wes.

the only logic to it would be if TB is throwing low % passes into coverage (a la moss) particularly if wr doesnt give flying F about breaking up a pick (moss). but from the tgt to rec %; majority throws to WW are NOT low% or into coverage. & WW gives a ****.

TB DOES LOOK too often 1st or 2nd to WW and misses more open guys. but that is a coaching (where is our qb coach- i dont see an impact lately) & discipline issue. that is fixable w-out respect to trading the wr.

 

[stelfans]

Sign Welker.
sign Amendola.
Profit!

 

[Deus Irae]

I am not advocating the signing of Amendola over Welker. I am just saying that if he could stay healthy, huge if, that Amendola probably would be able to match Welker's production.

Nothing Amendola has done indicates that he has any reasonable chance to match Welker's production.

 

[Nunchucks]

Re: Re: A Different Take: Welker vs. Amendola

Nothing Amendola has done indicates that he has any reasonable chance to match Welker's production.

I guess you have never seen him play. When healthy, he has completely taken over gamew and been uncoverable

 

[Jimke]

It is no sure bet that Amendola will be available if the Patriot lose Welker.

 

[Deus Irae]

I guess you have never seen him play. When healthy, he has completely taken over gamew and been uncoverable

I've seen him play. He's simply not what you're claiming he is, that's all. Despite making a lower percentage of his catches in the 9 yard box, he still has a lower YPC than Welker and, as I just noted, he makes a significantly lower percentage of his catches in that 9 yard box zone.

In fact, Welker has more double digit reception games from 2012 (4) than Amendola has for his entire career (3), despite your talk of Amendola taking over games.


Now, is it possible that Amendola can put up the same numbers as the most productive slot receiver of all time, Wes Welker? Sure, anything's possible. Can Amendola throw together 5 seasons of 110+ receptions in 6 years, and 6 straight years of 80+ catches? Again, anything's possible.

Is either of the above likely? Not at all.

 

[ivanvamp]

Nothing Amendola has done indicates that he has any reasonable chance to match Welker's production.

Welker's production has been, of course, incredible, and asking any one player to duplicate that is asking a lot. Thus, it is almost certain to not happen. But Amendola's best season so far compares favorably to Welker's best before arriving in New England. There is good reason to believe that Amendola, if healthy, can be very, very productive here with Brady throwing to him.

 

[Frezo]

Each players' totals for their first 4 years in the NFL:

DA:
REC = 196
YDS = 1726
TD = 7

WW:
REC = 96
YDS = 1121
TD = 1

If DA went to a pass happy offense like the Pats and with TB at QB, I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that his production could noticeably improve in year 5. WW's 5th year was his first with the Pats and his stats almost doubled from the previous one.

 

[Deus Irae]

Welker's production has been, of course, incredible, and asking any one player to duplicate that is asking a lot. Thus, it is almost certain to not happen. But Amendola's best season so far compares favorably to Welker's best before arriving in New England.

But that's an incredibly misleading statistic. Yes, it was Welker's "best" season, but it was also only his second real season, not his fourth.

There is good reason to believe that Amendola, if healthy, can be very, very productive here with Brady throwing to him.

Well, it really depends on your parameters for "very, very productive". For example, last year was the first time in his career that Amendola averaged above 9.0 ypc, when he averaged 10.6. Welker's lowest ever, outside of his injury year, is 10.3 and, even in his injury year, he was at 9.9. Welker's career average is 11.2, and Amendola's is 8.8.

So, yes it's true that if you take Amendola's best numbers, they match up with Welker's worst numbers, but he has done nothing to indicate that he can match up anywhere near Welker's best numbers.

 

[Deus Irae]

Each players' totals for their first 4 years in the NFL:

DA:
REC = 196
YDS = 1726
TD = 7

WW:
REC = 96
YDS = 1121
TD = 1

If DA went to a pass happy offense like the Pats and with TB at QB, I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that his production could noticeably improve in year 5. WW's 5th year was his first with the Pats and his stats almost doubled from the previous one.

Welker's first year with the Patriots was his 3rd as an NFL wide receiver, and his 4th in the NFL, since he was just an STer in year one. Also, the Rams threw the ball on a higher percentage of plays than the Patriots did this season.

 

[Frezo]

Welker's first year with the Patriots was his 3rd as an NFL wide receiver, and his 4th in the NFL, since he was just an STer in year one. Also, the Rams threw the ball on a higher percentage of plays than the Patriots did this season.

If you extrapolate the stats so that each played their first 4 seasons as a WR the numbers would be very similar.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

...Well, it really depends on your parameters for "very, very productive".

While I agree with you, most of the differences of opinion boil down to whether or not it's valid to incorporate a QB fudge factor into the productivity analysis, i.e.; added productivity owing to the higher accuracy of one Tom Brady. And yes, I am aware that WW was very productive in 2008 catching Cassel's passes.

 

[Deus Irae]

If you extrapolate the stats so that each played their first 4 seasons as a WR the numbers would be very similar.

Numbers from their first 4 seasons as a WR...

Welker:

64 games
30 starts
319 receptions
3461 yards
10.8 YPR
12 TDs


Amendola

42 games
17 starts
196 receptions
1726 yards
8.8 YPR
7 TDs

Even if you "even up" in order to avoid the Amendola injury factor, you get

Amendola

64 games
25.84 starts
298 receptions
2624 yards
8.8 YPR
10.5 TDs

Even if you pretend that being on the field doesn't really count and have no issue with screwing over Welker for his first two seasons, Welker's numbers are still clearly superior. Amendola's 8.8 YPR is simply too far below Welker's 10.8.

 

[Deus Irae]

While I agree with you, most of the differences of opinion boil down to whether or not it's valid to incorporate a QB fudge factor into the productivity analysis, i.e.; added productivity owing to the higher accuracy of one Tom Brady. And yes, I am aware that WW was very productive in 2008 catching Cassel's passes.

First, you point out Cassel, which kills the whole "Brady/QB" argument, and leaves only "system!".

Second, Amendola's had Marc Bulger and Sam Bradford throwing to him. They may be no great shakes, but in comparison to Gus Frerotte, Sage Rosenfels, Joey Harrington, the decaying corpse of Daunte Culpepper and Cleo Lemon, they're first team All-Pros.

I like Amendola well enough, injuries aside. He's one of a few poor man's versions of WWW. But the notion that he's more than that simply has not been demonstrated on the field, and the odds are very much against him matching up with WWW's production. That's not a knock on Amendola. The odds are very much against any particular player matching up with WWW's production, since it's never been done in NFL history.

 

[supafly]

I don't think it's necessarily fair to be comparing Amendola to Welker, but if we are not able to retain Welker then Amendola (along with Edelman for ST and insurance purposes) would probably be the best route to take.

There are many stats that favor Welker in this comparison, actually the majority of them do, but one stat that jumped out at me that favors Amendola is the fact that he dropped just ONE pass thrown his way out of 75 targets in the slot last year.

In comparison, Welker dropped an NFL league leading 15 passes in the regular season, and added in at least another major one in the AFCCG which could have totally changed the aspect of the game halfway through the 3rd quarter when they were driving to score and already up 13-7.

I think that Welker obviously blows Amendola away by a mile, but Amendola would be the choice I'd want if Welker doesn't come to terms. I'd also want to resign Edelman though too. The thinking would be that we'd save money and improve the youth and speed factor. The offset of course would be that Welker is much more talented than both of them put together, and that we would not be able to equal the production.

 

[VJCPatriot]

BLUF: without considering cap (the elephant in room); i would prefer WW.

That said, 1 thing to consider on DA is that IMO he is less likely to be injured w/ Pats.

TB throws a better targeted ball, that allows the recvr to catch in stride and thereby have a greater chance of avoiding the hits that cause the injury.

also as one of many threats gronkadez etc instead of THE THREAT, teams like Ratbids who specially target the top threats for intimidation hits (afccg-WW AH) would be less likely to specifically target him.

as someone else said though-all just 1 hit away.

love welker but cap demands are issue plus he has become known for his dropped balls when the pressure is on in the biggest games. that's not exactly a good rep to have.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

love welker but cap demands are issue plus he has become known for his dropped balls when the pressure is on in the biggest games. that's not exactly a good rep to have.

Yep, Super Bowl he easily could have made the catch, AFCCG on the 1st or second drive he drops a long ball dead on from tb. Sorry welker it was fun having you but it hasn't got us our ultimate goal.