A Couple Of Modest Proposals: move McCourty back to CB, or franchise Talib

[mgteich]

Yes, it is that bad a situation to be in, even in February. You had to start Dowling at CB to even have a team, and you assumed the re-sign of Arrington at nickel. Surely, you are not suggesting that it is not bad to have Arrington start at corner.

Even after adding Arrington, we would need to add three defensive backs. We simple presume that the patriots will be able to outbid others for the viable options that we want, and that are still available in late March. Or are you suggesting a Super Bowl team should depend on a rookie draftee at defensive back?

BOTTOM LINE
We might add Arrington and two free agents by the end of March. And then we will hope that they learn the system and perform.

Even if all we had back was Arrington, the secondary would still look like this:

Dennard
Arrington
Dowling
McCourty
Wilson
Gregory

Ebner and Williams as ST/depth


Good God, judging by some of the comments and concerns you'd think the world was going to end. It's really not that bad of a situation to be starting out in when the month of the year is still February.

 

[Deus Irae]

Bill Polian shares his opinion on the top needs of every team at this time on the NFL calendar.

His view on the Patriots is that it starts at safety. He then puts receiver and cornerback next on the list.

"Despite the Patriots' reputation as a perennial power, there are numerous needs here, with wide receiver and safety appearing the most glaring," Polian writes.

Tavon Wilson remains a wild card - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[Greg A. Bedard]

Do you have anything better than 'trust me on this'?
These reports have always been what YOU think they want to do. If this is coming from inside the organization, why would you not divulge that?
Am I missing something?

Just because I don't "source" things that I write, doesn't mean I'm not using sources. I try to make it clear when I'm using my own opinion/deduction.

It's complicated but, basically, I do not like to identify what type of source that I am using because that makes it easier for them to be discovered. And the Patriots HATE when anybody uses "team source" -- you'll never hear that from me unless it's really needed.

So, when possible, I stay out of it altogether.

All of my sources I have used for some time and they've never done me wrong. As soon as they are wrong, they're dead to me.

As long as I can verify the reliability of the source, that's good enough for me. I wouldn't last very long in this business if I was relying on bad sources.

Hope that helps.

 

[ivanvamp]

Hey Greg, I'm just a regular guy here with no authority or anything, but I want to welcome you here to Patsfans.com. I love your stuff.

 

[supafly]

Yes, it is that bad a situation to be in, even in February. You had to start Dowling at CB to even have a team, and you assumed the re-sign of Arrington at nickel. Surely, you are not suggesting that it is not bad to have Arrington start at corner.

We have a difference of opinions here. Belichick has not had one moment to really address the situation, as the free agent period and the draft have not happened yet.

It is no different from any other year in mid-end February when we are likely to lose free agents in the next couple of weeks. The flat cap crunch will add a plethora of options, as will the regular UFAs too.

I obviously don't want Arrington to start outside, that is a given, but when you already have Dennard, Dowling, Arrington and even McCourty as signed CB's in mid to late February, things can be a lot worse.

All we really need to do is add a viable candidate for an outside CB spot, whether that is done through free agency (my opinon, but on a mid level) or the draft/both remains to be seen. The "other" spots will be for depth purposes and a potential bonus of upgrade, so unless you are that worried about losing someone like Marquice Cole, I really see no reason to panic.

Belichick isn't going to change his philosophy of individual player vs cost assessment based on what the media or fans see as "need," so he isn't likely to overpay for Aqib Talib. There are going to be positions of need in every off-season, the 2013 off-season is no different than any other.

We simply presume that the patriots will be able to outbid others for the viable options that we want, and that are still available in late March. Or are you suggesting a Super Bowl team should depend on a rookie draftee at defensive back?

As far as your "Super Bowl team" comment, let's remember that this team was one blown defensive stop away (and some late game heroics part deux from Manning and co.) from winning it with the following players last season who had significant snaps in the SB 46 loss:

Sterling Moore
Antwaan Molden
James Ihedigbo
Patrick Chung

(along with McCourty and Arrington who will likely return in my opinion)

Instead, we currently have the following players signed in the secondary, assuming that Arrington resigns as I think that he will:

Dennard
McCourty
Arrington
Dowling
T.Wilson
Gregory

Are you actually going to try and convince me that signing another viable candidate whether through FA or the draft is out of the realm of possibility?

These "3 CB's that we need signed" can easily come down to Arrington, an offseason pickup, and a depth role/backup who likely won't see the field.

I understand the concern on some level, and it is an area that needs to be addressed, but things will look a lot different in the coming months.

 

[mgteich]

Sure it's early. Sure, we might be able to fill our needs at safety, corner, wide receiver and OT for this year (the draft is usually for next). Then again, how long have we been looking for Seymour's replacement? How successful have we been at getting our wide receiver that would stretch the field? Last year's efforts were heroic and unsuccessful.

So, yes, we will sign some corners. Will be have a secondary better than last year by the time the payoffs come around? Time will tell.

A) It is NOT always easy to fill a position of need. We need to fill major needs at both corner and at wide receiver.

B) Yes, we need 3 to replace Talib, Arrington and Cole.

C) It is folly to think that the 8th DB won't get any reps, especially when you are counting on Dowling.
=============

BTW, I find it mildly amusing to see that Arrington is now so important. A few weeks ago, few wanted him back.

All we really need to do is add a viable candidate for an outside CB spot, whether that is done through free agency (my opinon, but on a mid level) or the draft/both remains to be seen. The "other" spots will be for depth purposes and a potential bonus of upgrade, so unless you are that worried about losing someone like Marquice Cole, I really see no reason to panic.


Instead, we currently have the following players signed in the secondary, assuming that Arrington resigns as I think that he will:

Dennard
McCourty
Arrington
Dowling
T.Wilson
Gregory

Are you actually going to try and convince me that signing another viable candidate whether through FA or the draft is out of the realm of possibility?

These "3 CB's that we need signed" can easily come down to Arrington, an offseason pickup, and a depth role/backup who likely won't see the field.

I understand the concern on some level, and it is an area that needs to be addressed, but things will look a lot different in the coming months.

 

[Deus Irae]

Sure it's early. Sure, we might be able to fill our needs at safety, corner, wide receiver and OT for this year (the draft is usually for next). Then again, how long have we been looking for Seymour's replacement? How successful have we been at getting our wide receiver that would stretch the field? Last year's efforts were heroic and unsuccessful.

So, yes, we will sign some corners. Will be have a secondary better than last year by the time the payoffs come around? Time will tell.

A) It is NOT always easy to fill a position of need. We need to fill major needs at both corner and at wide receiver.

B) Yes, we need 3 to replace Talib, Arrington and Cole.

C) It is folly to think that the 8th DB won't get any reps, especially when you are counting on Dowling.
=============

BTW, I find it mildly amusing to see that Arrington is now so important. A few weeks ago, few wanted him back.

1.) How difficult do you expect it to be to replace a CB of Cole's level?

2.) When did Arrington tell you that he wouldn't be returning to the Patriots, and how difficult do you expect finding his replacement to be?

3.) Is anyone arguing that the Patriots don't need a CB1? Isn't finding that CB1 really the only truly significant issue about the CB position, unless the judge goes nuts and sticks it to Dennard?

 

[supafly]

A) It is NOT always easy to fill a position of need. We need to fill major needs at both corner and at wide receiver.

B) Yes, we need 3 to replace Talib, Arrington and Cole.

The draft and the FA period are the main points of the offseason to try and address these issues every year, with some additional depth coming in the late spring/summer months. Since that hasn't occurred yet, I don't seem to be as worried as you may be. I think it's obvious what the areas of concern are, but I think it's reasonable to think that they can address them.

How successful that ends up turning out is anyone's guess, but I think we have this same conversation every year at different positions. It's unfortunate that Dowling hasn't been able to stay on the field, but he will definitely be there in the summer to at least provide competition. That's why I am including him.

I will be much more concerned if the players they try and replace them with are scrubs and we are having this conversation in a couple/few months, but that is also a negative way to see it, not to mention a big assumption to make.

 

[Ring 6]

Just because I don't "source" things that I write, doesn't mean I'm not using sources. I try to make it clear when I'm using my own opinion/deduction.

It's complicated but, basically, I do not like to identify what type of source that I am using because that makes it easier for them to be discovered. And the Patriots HATE when anybody uses "team source" -- you'll never hear that from me unless it's really needed.

So, when possible, I stay out of it altogether.

All of my sources I have used for some time and they've never done me wrong. As soon as they are wrong, they're dead to me.

As long as I can verify the reliability of the source, that's good enough for me. I wouldn't last very long in this business if I was relying on bad sources.

Hope that helps.

Thanks for the clarification. Actually what you wrote here is what I was basing my opinion on, as I remember the article being written as a 'your belief' article.
Perhaps my memory stinks.
I certainly understand it does not good to expose sources, and I would imagine you have to be more careful with that here than with 31 of the other 31 teams.

 

[Joker]

JAs long as I can verify the reliability of the source, that's good enough for me. I wouldn't last very long in this business if I was relying on bad sources.

Doesn't seem to have harmed John Tomase's career to date....

 

[mgteich]

You don't seem to want any camp competition or injury. It is not I who said that Arrington was returning. To answer your question, we need three players to contribute. Obviously the top corner is the most difficult position to fill. I don't understand why it is presumed to easy to find a nickel and a dime back also. There is a limited free agent market.

To be direct, I presume that we will find a corner by the end of March. Perhaps he fit as well as Bodden or Talib, perhaps not. We will still be looking for a nickel back and a dime back. Obviously if the nickel back is a marginal starter and can play both corner spots, that reduces the need for the dime back. However, I will be quite surprised if three corners are not signed before the draft.

My position is that we probably can get better than Arrington and Cole. HOWEVER, that is NOT a reason not to sign them as insurance, and as comp competition. The cost of this insurance is only their bonus money. This was by the end of March, we will have free agent, Dennard, Arrington, Cole and Dowling in place. We can then look for upgrades and for further camp competition, much as we did last year at wide receiver.

The situation is similar at wide receiver where we would do well to have 2 wideouts signed by the end of March, one of which could be Edelman. And yes, i am comparing Arrington to Edelman.

===============================

And I do not mean to minimize the need for help at safety.

1.) How difficult do you expect it to be to replace a CB of Cole's level?

2.) When did Arrington tell you that he wouldn't be returning to the Patriots, and how difficult do you expect finding his replacement to be?

3.) Is anyone arguing that the Patriots don't need a CB1? Isn't finding that CB1 really the only truly significant issue about the CB position, unless the judge goes nuts and sticks it to Dennard?

 

[RayClay]

Just because I don't "source" things that I write, doesn't mean I'm not using sources. I try to make it clear when I'm using my own opinion/deduction.

It's complicated but, basically, I do not like to identify what type of source that I am using because that makes it easier for them to be discovered. And the Patriots HATE when anybody uses "team source" -- you'll never hear that from me unless it's really needed.

So, when possible, I stay out of it altogether.

All of my sources I have used for some time and they've never done me wrong. As soon as they are wrong, they're dead to me.

As long as I can verify the reliability of the source, that's good enough for me. I wouldn't last very long in this business if I was relying on bad sources.

Hope that helps.

Thanks for the explanation. There are so many sensationalist's who use "sources" as reasons to throw something provocative out there these days, it cheapens the word.

Of course you have some sources and the Patriots are not an open organization. Ultimately, you build your own reputation and your word is either reliable or not.

I personally don't think McCourty would ever be a great cornerback, but could be at safety. I'm hardly an expert, but it seems to me a position where you either have the knack to react in a fluid manner or you don't. I also think Chung either has a chronic shoulder problem, or just isn't willing to mix it up anymore. I thought Eugene Wilson hit the same wall. A little guy hitting all day can't flinch and I think he's not what he was, and his coverage means he needs to hit.

Any thoughts would be appreciated, I like your work.

 

[Deus Irae]

mgteich, I'm confused about your post:

You don't seem to want any camp competition or injury.

I neither said, nor implied, any such thing.

It is not I who said that Arrington was returning. To answer your question, we need three players to contribute. Obviously the top corner is the most difficult position to fill. I don't understand why it is presumed to easy to find a nickel and a dime back also. There is a limited free agent market.

There is at least one report/rumor out there that Arrington would like to return, but he certainly wasn't the world's best CB last season, even as a nickel. Are you now saying that the loss of Arrington would be a fairly damaging loss to the team because finding his equal will be a significant difficulty?

Also, are you saying that there's nobody out there that can play the dime position as well as, or better than, Cole and is going to be in the Patriots price range?

To be direct, I presume that we will find a corner by the end of March. Perhaps he fit as well as Bodden or Talib, perhaps not. We will still be looking for a nickel back and a dime back. Obviously if the nickel back is a marginal starter and can play both corner spots, that reduces the need for the dime back. However, I will be quite surprised if three corners are not signed before the draft.

I think we can both agree that BB will look to fill out his training camp roster with the full number of players, and that some of the extra 30+ players will be cornerbacks.

You also seem to feel that finding a CB1 will be accomplished before the draft even arrives. Is that a correct reading of this paragraph of yours?

My position is that we probably can get better than Arrington and Cole. HOWEVER, that is NOT a reason not to sign them as insurance, and as comp competition. The cost of this insurance is only their bonus money. This was by the end of March, we will have free agent, Dennard, Arrington, Cole and Dowling in place. We can then look for upgrades and for further camp competition, much as we did last year at wide receiver.

I completely agree with this notion, assuming the contract demands of Arrington and Cole are reasonable for their respective situations.

The situation is similar at wide receiver where we would do well to have 2 wideouts signed by the end of March, one of which could be Edelman. And yes, i am comparing Arrington to Edelman.

While I don't really have the same worries about the timing that you seem to have, I don't have a problem with this idea of yours. However, this leads to the following two questions:

1.) How is this post of yours out of line with what Supafly had posted in the first place?

2.) Given your anticipation of the relatively low signing costs for Arrington and Coles (based upon your "bonus" comment), is not my 3rd question from that earlier post

Isn't finding that CB1 really the only truly significant issue about the CB position, unless the judge goes nuts and sticks it to Dennard?

getting answered in the affirmative by you?

 

[Deus Irae]

And I do not mean to minimize the need for help at safety.

I hear you. I assumed it was a matter of prioritizing. On the one hand, reading some of your posts, we seem to have a significant difference of opinion about the defensive secondary. On the other hand, reading other posts of yours, it seems not to be a difference among us as much as it seems to be you being conflicted about your preferred approach.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think that that three of us differ by much at all. Wait until draft time. Then we'll really disagree.

A) If Arrington and Cole are re-signed before free agency starts, then I agree that finding ONE top corner is our only significant issue. Upgrades over Arrington and Cole become gravy, so to speak. We will certainly sign camp competition for their roles.

B) I think that Arrington is a solid nickel back. As this is almost a starter position, I do think that it is an important plus if we can have at least an OK player in place. Cole is a dime back and an OK backup CB and nickel back, a sort of perfect #4 or #5 corner.

C) Perhaps, a hidden issue is that I am not counting on much from Dowling, although I am certainly prepared to be pleasantly surprised. I also don't expect Dennard to play the first two games of the season. So perhaps, I panic a bit more than most. However, Belichick can certainly take care of business in free agency.

D) YES, I do indeed expect to know who are starting CB is before the draft. While it is not criminal for a SB team to do into the draft at #29 looking for a starter at CB, I think it is negligent. I expect us to sign a top corner before the end of March.

E) Perhaps we will consider a corner in the first three rounds. Perhaps that player will be a major contributor or even a starter. That's fine. We would then have 3 starters, including Dennard, one of which will be primarily a nickel. However, I wouldn't want to go into the draft NEEDING to draft a corner who will be a major contributor this season.

We have gone into 2 drafts recently with a major need and drafted two players early and met that need. I suspect that we may do this again. Whether the position of need is defensive back or wide receiver depends on free agency.

mgteich, I'm confused about your post:



I neither said, nor implied, any such thing.



There is at least one report/rumor out there that Arrington would like to return, but he certainly wasn't the world's best CB last season, even as a nickel. Are you now saying that the loss of Arrington would be a fairly damaging loss to the team because finding his equal will be a significant difficulty?

Also, are you saying that there's nobody out there that can play the dime position as well as, or better than, Cole and is going to be in the Patriots price range?



I think we can both agree that BB will look to fill out his training camp roster with the full number of players, and that some of the extra 30+ players will be cornerbacks.

You also seem to feel that finding a CB1 will be accomplished before the draft even arrives. Is that a correct reading of this paragraph of yours?



I completely agree with this notion, assuming the contract demands of Arrington and Cole are reasonable for their respective situations.



While I don't really have the same worries about the timing that you seem to have, I don't have a problem with this idea of yours. However, this leads to the following two questions:

1.) How is this post of yours out of line with what Supafly had posted in the first place?

2.) Given your anticipation of the relatively low signing costs for Arrington and Coles (based upon your "bonus" comment), is not my 3rd question from that earlier post



getting answered in the affirmative by you?

 

[supafly]

I don't think that that three of us differ by much at all. Wait until draft time. Then we'll really disagree.

What it really comes down to then is that many are worried about the loss of Talib, since it leaves a hole at one of the starting outside corner spots and arguably takes away our best cover corner. The problem with that is Belichick is going to stick with his guns here and not overpay for one specific player based on a perception of need or weakness. If he's not doing it with Welker (at least so far), he probably isn't going to do it with Talib.

The Talib situation has nothing to do with a lack of bodies, talent, losing a 4th rd pick, etc. It all comes down to a fair offer based on Belichick's usual system and the likelihood of some other team overpaying for Talib's services, which may or may not work out for them. I really don't think they need to overpay by use of transition tag simply because it's too much guaranteed money and too steep of a cap hit. They'll almost 100% have a chance to match any potential offer from another team anyway, as I'm sure they are well aware of all offers from other teams via communication with the agents.

So if you don't overeact to the Talib situation, it really makes the whole CB problem look more managable, as we should assume that at least one of Arrington/Cole will be resigned. There are other options for CBs who can cover better than what we are recently used to, so there may not be as big of a dropoff as some would think by moving on from Talib. The cap crunch and UFA's have led to a decent list of other alternatives, and then we'll have the draft to likely take another higher pick yet again.

Not only do I think those "3 CB's" will be addressed, I would think that there will actually be 6-7 more added at some point just like any other year. Whether or not they can improve upon last year remains to be seen, but there are some positives to look forward to such as the departure of Chung, the possibility of a full yr of stability at safety from McCourty, and additional yrs of experience in the NFL from both Dennard and Wilson. Another year in the system from Gregory could help too, along with any of the additions that are made through the offseason acquisitions, which may be significant. We could be taking a Woodson, or a Chris Gamble, a Keenan Lewis etc, plus one of the top CBs of the draft class.

There's still the possibility of Dowling being able to actually play football too, which would be a huge difference if it happens. We all counted him in our projections last year and he became injured again. We'll have to include him in our projections again, just not with the same positive attitude and further down on the list.

I don't think it comes down to replacing one player like Talib, I think it comes down to trying to put a better 9/10 DB's on the 53 man roster than last season and the season before. Right now I personally have no reason to believe that cannot be done.

 

[supafly]

I'm actually more concerned about losing Wes Welker much more than I am the secondary situation. I think the secondary prospects have a nice list both in cap casualties and UFA's, not to mention the draft process too.

I don't see that same potential from the free agent WR's, and the draftees make me a little leery since they usually need a little time to build up with Brady.

I'm starting to think that there will be money for some FA additions that would have been used on Welker, and that at some point most of us are going to be much more concerned about the WR's than the secondary players.

 

[Triumph]

Dennard
Arrington
Dowling
McCourty
Wilson
Gregory

Ebner and Williams as ST/depth


Good God, judging by some of the comments and concerns you'd think the world was going to end. It's really not that bad of a situation to be starting out in when the month of the year is still February.

Its a bad situation when the Pats have been 1 of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Colin Kapernick only completed 15 passes vs the Pats and 4 were TDs.

Dennard - I think he serves some jail time and everyone is placing enormous hope on a 2nd year CB. Look how McCourty played in year 2.

Arrington - Hes a big reception slot machine. Really regressed last season.

Dowling - I would not count on anything from him. If he somehow contributes, wonderful.

McCourty - Needs to stay at Safety. He is not a good CB.

Wilson - Unknkown

Gregory - JAG

 

[patfanken]

Just because I don't "source" things that I write, doesn't mean I'm not using sources. I try to make it clear when I'm using my own opinion/deduction.

It's complicated but, basically, I do not like to identify what type of source that I am using because that makes it easier for them to be discovered. And the Patriots HATE when anybody uses "team source" -- you'll never hear that from me unless it's really needed.

So, when possible, I stay out of it altogether.

All of my sources I have used for some time and they've never done me wrong. As soon as they are wrong, they're dead to me.

As long as I can verify the reliability of the source, that's good enough for me. I wouldn't last very long in this business if I was relying on bad sources.

Hope that helps.

Greg, I can't help but read this and ask the following question and hope you answer it.

Why is it that someone in the organization is willing to BECOME a "source". I mean what's in it for them, especially in an organization so tight lipped like the Pats? It would seem to me that they risk a lot by talking to you, while at the same time if they get some information wrong, you are more than willing to cut them off..."dead". So, again, what's in it for them.

BTW- I greatly admire your analytic work, and appreciate your the courage of your editorial positions even though I don't always agree with them. Overall you raise the bar for the rest of your brethren and provide a great service for us. Thanks

 

[Ring 6]

Greg, I can't help but read this and ask the following question and hope you answer it.

Why is it that someone in the organization is willing to BECOME a "source". I mean what's in it for them, especially in an organization so tight lipped like the Pats? It would seem to me that they risk a lot by talking to you, while at the same time if they get some information wrong, you are more than willing to cut them off..."dead". So, again, what's in it for them.

BTW- I greatly admire your analytic work, and appreciate your the courage of your editorial positions even though I don't always agree with them. Overall you raise the bar for the rest of your brethren and provide a great service for us. Thanks

That is a tremendous question. Given that they would be putting their job on the line if it was found out, what is the motivation to be a source?
I would imagine in some cases, it is an approved leak, but given that BB will NEVER come close to letting out anything they are thinking about personell, strategy, scheme, etc, it would seem like he is searching for the source of such leaks, and wouldn't handle them kindly.