A Couple Of Modest Proposals: move McCourty back to CB, or franchise Talib

[mgteich]

The open question is whether it is easier to get two corners and a safety, or two safeties and a corner.

Or....

Keep McCourty at safety
Sign a CB1 (Talib or other)
Re-sign Arrington
Draft Safety in round 1

Just doing that gives you plenty of safeties (rookie replaces Chung) and sets up the team at CB1, CB2 and CB3/CB4. At that point, they can bring in the annual parade of CB3/CB4 wannabes and find one that sticks, while hoping that Dowling isn't already a broken china doll and also has some game left in him.

There's no need to franchise Talib. In fact, I'll look at any decision to franchise Talib over Welker as evidence that the Jets have gotten to the Patriots brain trust with some sort of mind altering (and dumbing down) substance.

 

[supafly]

We currently have
Dennard (waiting for prIson sentence)
Dowling (waiting for this year's injuries)
and no one else except Practice Squad quality players.
=============

I don't understand why most of you seem to be fine with keeping McCourty at FS, and simply hoping that we will be able to field an adequate set of corners.

I think that Belichick will obviously do what he feels is best for the secondary, so we'll have to trust that. So far it has produced decent overall results even despite a horrible secondary lately. I don't think it will be ignored though.

I also think you are being a bit negative with the overall situation. We have no idea as to whether Dennard will get jail time or not, and if he does he would likely still be out by the end of the summer.

They may also have a plan in place to re-sign Arrington, or at least make a very good attempt at doing so.

It should also be noted that maybe Belichick feels just as strongly as you do about the dire state of the secondary, and that is one of the reasons he may take a chance at trying to keep the offense going without Welker, so that the money can be used for issues like this.

 

[supafly]

The open question is whether it is easier to get two corners and a safety, or two safeties and a corner.

I think we would need to have inside information as to how the organization feels about the progress made in year one from Tavon Wilson, and how they feel about their prospects in the draft/FA regarding safeties vs cornerbacks.

In other words, probably only one man truly knows which way he'll approach it, and even then he may let the situation come to him and play with what is left after the initial overpayment rush in week one of FA.

The Dennard situation is also probably being watched closely, but we should know tomorrow how much jail time he'll get, if any.

 

[mgteich]

You may be correct in the issue of needing a safety to be captain of the defense.

If we are "going to let the market speak and deal with the fallout", I can only hope that we make some of the more minor signings before free agency starts (perhaps 2-3 of Edelman, Woodhead, Arrington and Thomas).

I have a feeling this team is presently willing to sit back and let the market speak and deal with the fallout even if it means they lose 3-4 UFA. Hopefully they are guessing right, although that hasn't been their strong suit for some time now. If not the FA market for corners might still yield just enough and the draft is looking good for safeties. And both provide options at OL. WR will be the toughest hole to fill if they let Welker walk.

 

[Deus Irae]

The open question is whether it is easier to get two corners and a safety, or two safeties and a corner.

No.....

The open question is whether it's better for this team to have good safety play and look for help at corner, or to look for help at safety [highlight]and[/highlight] hope that McCourty doesn't wet himself at corner again.


I'll take the former. You seem content with the latter.

 

[Metaphors]

• I'm not sure how jerking McCourty back to corner (except in an injury emergency) would be a positive thing.
• Dennard has shown enough to assume he will be a part of the rotation assuming the trial works out (can't believe he gets jail time past the summer).
• Not sure why people are so down on Gregory, but he has been at least a steady veteran in the secondary. Can't credibly cry for J.Sanders and diss Gregory.
• Wilson is 22 with one year under his belt. Writing him off as a bust doesn't seem very smart.
• Dowling had found a niche as a physical between the numbers corner before his injury. If he can stay healthy, I think that becomes his role moving forward.

Seems to me that CB is a much greater need than safety. In fact, a case could be made that the safety position is set for next year (including Ebner as the 4th ST guy). I expect the Pats to get a CB early in FA (Talib or otherwise) and then use the draft and later FA to pounce on whatever DB opportunities appear.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that we are all set at safety, if McCourty stays at safety. Even so, I would expect us to add a draftee in this excellent safety draft. Ebner is a STer, and can be carried as such, even in he's listed as our fifth safety.

You seem to greatly underestimate the need at corner. We need at least FOUR at this critical position. Even this is pretty light: 2 starters, a nickel and a backup who will play at least 50% of the defensive reps if anyone is injured. We currently have one corner on trial and the other who was injured for all but two games in his first two years. That's just not good in this passing league.

I understand that we can simply say that we were unlucky that Dowling and/or one of the free agent corners doesn't work out well.

• 
  
  Seems to me that CB is a much greater need than safety. In fact, a case could be made that the safety position is set for next year (including Ebner as the 4th ST guy). I expect the Pats to get a CB early in FA (Talib or otherwise) and then use the draft and later FA to pounce on whatever DB opportunities appear.

 

[DaBruinz]

So the general consensus is Tavon Wilson is hopeless?

No. That isn't the "GENERAL Consensus". That might be the idea of a few hair-brained posters who insist on thinking the sky is falling because every pick isn't an immediate All-Pro, but it's certainly not the consensus.

Most fair-minded posters believe that Wilson showed plenty during his rookie season. Especially a rookie in the Pats defense.

 

[nzahir]

How about we keep Mccourt at safety, re sign talib or a corner of his talent or higher, hope that dennard can play next season(or we will have to rely on dowling and his health), and draft the honey badger to play slot cb. Then for ss we can use tavon wilson or try to draft a guy like elam or if not maybe eric reid. The pats should try to add some interior pass rush to help the line and secondary, a guy like desmond bryant is ideal. Henry melton is nice but he will probably be too expensive and franchised. Maybe someone gets cut or traded like a cullen jenkins.

 

[DaBruinz]

We are short 3 corners and a safety.

Perhaps we need to consider moving McCourty back to corner and be short 2 corners and 2 safeties.

This plan requires less resources than others. For example, we could re-sign Arrington and Cole (and/or their upgrades) and also add a couple of safeties (ideally one from free agency and one from the draft.

=====

Or we can simply decide to franchise Talib.

Where do you get that the Patriots are short 3 Corners and a safety? Because they have Chung, Arrington, Talib, Cole and Martin as free agents? You seem to forget that only 3 of the 5 actually started the season with the Pats.

Lets do a rundown of what the Pats have on the roster currently.
McCourty, Dowling, T. Wilson, S. Gregory, Ebner, Dennard, Malcolm Williams. Of them, Ebner and Williams are almost exclusively special teamers. That still leaves the Pats with 3 safeties and 2 Corners. Yes, I am counting McCourty as a Safety because I believe that is where the Pats want him to be full time.

That means the Pats should a minimum of 2 DBs. Whether they are 1CB and 1 S or 2 CB/S combos or 2 CBs, that's what they'll l;ikely look at for the final roster. But it's a long way between now and then and there will probably been 6-10 guys that they bring in and give a look at.

The key is to bring in someone for the STAR position. Someone who can cover the slot receiver. Be it a WR or a TE.

But, in addition to that, the Pats need to jam the TEs at the line with a LB to throw the timing off.

 

[DaBruinz]

We currently have
Dennard (waiting for prIson sentence)
Dowling (waiting for this year's injuries)
and no one else except Practice Squad quality players.
=============

I don't understand why most of you seem to be fine with keeping McCourty at FS, and simply hoping that we will be able to field an adequate set of corners.

Dennard isn't waiting for a prison sentence. Sheesh.. The trial isn't even done and things aren't looking good for the prosecution since the video that supposedly showed Dennard hitting the Officer was not as convincing as they thought it was. Not to mention that Ben Samani, the person who was supposedly hit by Dennard said that he wasn't sure if it was Dennard that hit him or not.

 

[DocHoliday]

DMc's ability at safety will be much more useful for this team.

For one, since he can cover fairly decently, he allows the use of safety/CB swap schemes. That's nothing to sneeze at.

Moreover, as a former corner, he can play in both 2-CB 3-safety and 3-CB 2-safety nickel packages, minimizing substitutions.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree that we are all set at safety, if McCourty stays at safety. Even so, I would expect us to add a draftee in this excellent safety draft. Ebner is a STer, and can be carried as such, even in he's listed as our fifth safety.

You seem to greatly underestimate the need at corner. We need at least FOUR at this critical position. Even this is pretty light: 2 starters, a nickel and a backup who will play at least 50% of the defensive reps if anyone is injured. We currently have one corner on trial and the other who was injured for all but two games in his first two years. That's just not good in this passing league.

I understand that we can simply say that we were unlucky that Dowling and/or one of the free agent corners doesn't work out well.

It comes down to Wilson.
Lets do it this way. Either McCourty is at S and we signed a corner, or McCourty is at corner and we signed a starting safety, better than any we have.
If BB sees Wilson as worthy of where he was drafted, he will be expected to start and be effective this year (that is a very, very common path with BB draft picks, reserve and sub as a rookie, started year 2) then we don't draft a S. (With the exception of McCourty goes to corner and we draft instead of sign one but i dont see that happening)
If Wilson is assessed to not be ready, we have to draft one who can play this year. In other words, we aren't counting on Gregory, so if Wilson isn't a lock to beat him out, we must draft someone who will before long.

 

[supafly]

We currently have one corner on trial and the other who was injured for all but two games in his first two years.

We'll likely know the outcome of Dennard's status tomorrow, so that will be in plenty of time before March 12th comes around. Many here find it hard to imagine him still being incarcerated when the summer is over, as that is still 6 months+ at the moment. As long as any sentence he receives doesn't exceed one year, we should be fine with him returning for the season. Hopefully it isn't anything more than 6 months or so anyway, so he can still attend the offseason activities and be out in 3 months.

I agree with your pessimism re Dowling, but he did play in 6 games this year. I just read an article after the Oct.22nd game vs the NYJ and he was still playing at that point when McCourty initially moved back to safety. Obviously he didn't see nearly as many snaps as "6 games" would expect, so your point remains the same, he has been oft-injured and hasn't contributed to this point. We don't want to have to rely on Dowling, we want him to be a bonus if he works out. However, we also need to keep in mind that he is still on the team and will compete for reps as a CB, even if the odds seem slim at this point.

The team will have to address the gaps via the usual moves, but there is no reason to believe that all of Dennard, Dowling, Arrington, Talib, and Cole will all be missing in action. We should see at least 3-4 of them to compete for reps with a draftee and a free agent pickup or two.

 

[supafly]

It comes down to Wilson.
Lets do it this way. Either McCourty is at S and we signed a corner, or McCourty is at corner and we signed a starting safety, better than any we have.
If BB sees Wilson as worthy of where he was drafted, he will be expected to start and be effective this year (that is a very, very common path with BB draft picks, reserve and sub as a rookie, started year 2) then we don't draft a S. (With the exception of McCourty goes to corner and we draft instead of sign one but i dont see that happening)
If Wilson is assessed to not be ready, we have to draft one who can play this year. In other words, we aren't counting on Gregory, so if Wilson isn't a lock to beat him out, we must draft someone who will before long.

I agree that Wilson's development and Belichick's thoughts on the matter will likely be a key factor.

An optimistic person could actually view the potential of McCourty to play either role as a huge positive in this situation, as it gives Belichick more flexibility to approach the situation from 2 different paths, and may provide more options. In this instance the team doesn't have to lock down on one approach or the other, even if Belichick is heavily leaning towards one of the solutions at the moment.

Either way, it's hard for me to look at the situation and see it much different from other years at other positions, or see it in such a negative light. It will be addressed, hopefully the results will improve.

 

[patfanken]

Some comments on the comments:

1. This is an excellent topic because of our current situation in the secondary. There are a lot of ways BB can handle this and McCourty's position flexibility gives him a lot of options.

2. McCourty DID do an excellent job at S last season, but he also did a very good job at CB, despite DI's negative rant.

3. What makes me think moving McCourty back to CB is a real possibility comes from my perception that BOTH the FA and draft classes at the safety position are VERY strong. The CB position is less strong in both areas

4. Another reason is that signing Talib or any of the other top CB FA's will cost more than a similarly talented safety. IIRC, a top CB will cost in the $10MM/yr range, while a top safety will cost in the $6MM range.

5. So moving McCourty back to CB, and then signing one of the the top FA safeties, and then drafting an additional S from that very deep class in the first 3 rounds would be more economical than signing Talib or another top CB FA.

6. Now you could field a CB group with McCourty, Dennard, Dowling and Arrington as your top 4 guys, and have a Safety group led by say Byrd, Wilson, Gregory, and a talented Draft pick who you could slowly work into the mix

7. If you keep McCourty at Safety we would be solid at the S position with McCourty ,Wilson, and Gregory, but unless we are willing to pay top dollar to Talib or another top FA CB, we would be incredibly thin at CB, with essentially only the injury plagued Dowling and the legally challenged Dennard as potential starters.

8. I think Arrington did a decent job when he was limited to the slot CB position. While I'd like to see him back next year in that role, there are a lot of guys who are as talented as he is at the position. Its not like he would be that difficult to replace. I think he'd be worth a contract in the $1MM-$1.5MM/yr range. He's not a great talent, but he's been dependable and knows the defense.

9. The Current Wisdom has McCourtry staying that the S position, but I wonder. The combination of a strong FA safety class and a strong draft class of safeties, plus the fact that an elite FA safety costs about $4MM/yr LESS than an elite CB; just MIGHT make MG 's OP a larger possibility than most think.

10. BTW- we can speculate all we want, but it will be another 3-4 weeks before the FA signing period begins and we can get a better idea of what the Pats have in mind. By that time the Pats will have finished any tinkering they are going to do with any existing contracts to create more cap room, and probably signed one or two or their own FA's. But right now its impossible to do more than just guess, because the possibilities are virtually endless.

 

[supafly]

The key is to bring in someone for the STAR position. Someone who can cover the slot receiver. Be it a WR or a TE.

You don't care to see Arrington returning in that role, DaBruinz?

I'm actually hoping that Arrington can be retained for a reasonable rate and that the depth on the outside can be improved upon to eliminate any situations where he may be forced over there.

In my opinion it is one less need for a reasonable cost with a player who is experienced in our system, but no one wants to see him having to play outside either.

 

[supafly]

we can speculate all we want, but it will be another 3-4 weeks before the FA signing period begins and we can get a better idea of what the Pats have in mind. By that time the Pats will have finished any tinkering they are going to do with any existing contracts to create more cap room, and probably signed one or two or their own FA's. But right now its impossible to do more than just guess, because the possibilities are virtually endless.

That's really what it comes down to, pure speculation, just like the majority of our comments and thoughts in certain areas.

One way or another, I think that there will be plenty of options, so it shouldn't be this much of a negative in the middle of February only 2 weeks removed from the SB.

If the outlook is this dreary in August, that's a whole other story.

 

[ay-yo]

A couple of points about moving McCourty back to CB:



1. As MoLewisRocks said one safety has to QB the secondary. This quote further emphasizes this point.

Q: Is the biggest different the last line of defense mentality you have to have as a safety?

DM: Yeah, I mean that’s one thing. But I think you also put the communication level and the importance is way greater at safety. At corner where you’re only one side of the field, you’re not asked to communicate as much to the rest of the defense as you are at safety. With [Jerod] Mayo making so many calls, he has to really worry about handling the linebackers and the front four. I think once you talk about the secondary, the safeties have to worry about handling everything with the coverage aspect. When you’re at safety, you have to really make sure everyone gets the calls and everyone is listening. Whenever I’m back at that position, I put a lot of that on myself. Along with Steve [Gregory] and Pat [Chung] being back there, just making sure everyone gets what we’re doing.

More than anything else this is why I want to keep McCourty at FS.

2. Don't underestimate Doc Holiday's point about having a safety that can play CB at a moderate to high level (depending on your take of McCourty at CB. If you bring in another FS who you are comfortable with (aka Ed Reed) the ability to send 5 rushers AND have McCourty, Talib (or other CB1) and Dennard on the offenses top 3 receiving threats is a huge advantage. Rarely do teams have 4 quality receiving threats. We did last year and they were rarely all on the field together, healthy.

3. We have McCourty on a rookie contract for 2 more years. It does buy us some time (maybe enough where we can restructure Mankins to a smaller yearly cap hit) before we pay a CB top dollar but it's not a long term solution. Eventually we will have to pay or every year we live with rookie contract players or reclamation project vets / jags.

 

[mgteich]

SAFETY (need one)
We seem to agree that we are fine at this position with McCourty, Gregory, and Wilson.
I would add a draftee.

CORNERS (need three)
Dennard, Dowling
Say it is many times as you wish. I disagree that with your assessment of only needing 2 more corners or a CB and a CB/S to make this unit work. I'm not ready to count on Dowling, or to have little insurance if all the additions don't work out. We need to replace the production of Talib, Arrington and Cole. For me, It's really that simple.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Ebner or Williams

And yes, I understand that we add players after the initial roster is set.

Where do you get that the Patriots are short 3 Corners and a safety? Because they have Chung, Arrington, Talib, Cole and Martin as free agents? You seem to forget that only 3 of the 5 actually started the season with the Pats.

Lets do a rundown of what the Pats have on the roster currently.
McCourty, Dowling, T. Wilson, S. Gregory, Ebner, Dennard, Malcolm Williams. Of them, Ebner and Williams are almost exclusively special teamers. That still leaves the Pats with 3 safeties and 2 Corners. Yes, I am counting McCourty as a Safety because I believe that is where the Pats want him to be full time.

That means the Pats should a minimum of 2 DBs. Whether they are 1CB and 1 S or 2 CB/S combos or 2 CBs, that's what they'll l;ikely look at for the final roster. But it's a long way between now and then and there will probably been 6-10 guys that they bring in and give a look at.

The key is to bring in someone for the STAR position. Someone who can cover the slot receiver. Be it a WR or a TE.

But, in addition to that, the Pats need to jam the TEs at the line with a LB to throw the timing off.