#23, #34, #47, #58

[CanadianPat'sFan]

This is too much fun...

#23 & #58 traded to Houston for #15 (1080 for Pats picks to 1050 for Houston)
Rey Maualuga, ILB - M & M
#34 - Barwin - OLB
#48 - Louis Delmas

Younger, faster and tougher on defense.

I like how BB took care of the offense early in FA with a TE and a RB to contribute right away. Defense I think he will focus on in the draft (unless a stud WR or OL drops on his lap at 23, 34, 47 or 58. I think he will look for the WR3 in FA or through a trade for a 4th or lower where we have comp picks coming our way.

For some reason I think Maualuga may fall to us at 23 and I keep asking myself why I would hesitate. I did not like his last 3 months, the Bowl game, Senior Bowl and Combine. When I saw him other then the last three months I would take this guy top 5 from the film I have seen on this kid.

So do you think he could come in and start at SILB with Teddy serving as backup and mentor. I also am intrigued by Barwin being a SILB but think his first step quickness of the edge at OLB would be the best fit for him. He has never dropped into coverage much before this but his experience playing TE I hope would bring him along as he has tremendous athleatic ability as we all saw at the combine.

I am becoming a bigger and bigger fan of Dalmus and talked to a buddy who is a Western Michigan alum and he says this kid is the real deal. Sean Smith is the other kid I am interested in but think because of his size someone is going to reach on this kid in the first.

 

[rookBoston]

Barwin won't get passed the first 5 picks of round 2, let alone drop to #58.

Too many people falling in love with Barwin. We've seen teams reach for players with measurables in the past. I will admit that first reading his scouting report, I picked up on all the things that people find so appealing in him. But there's a reason he isn't a top-20 prospect, and that's because he's all potential and very little history. The idea that he's flying up draft boards is entirely a fiction of mock drafters like ourselves falling in love with the Cinderella story.

 

[VJCPatriot]

The idea that he's flying up draft boards is entirely a fiction of mock drafters like ourselves falling in love with the Cinderella story.

So is Mayo fact or fiction? He was rated a 2nd round pick before the combine, had an excellent combine, then his stock heated up before the draft and the Pats took him #10 overall in the 1st.
I really hope that you are not basing your draft boards on the pundits or the numerous 'mock drafts' that are littering the internet. I know BB doesn't.

 

[Metaphors]

So is Mayo fact or fiction? He was rated a 2nd round pick before the combine, had an excellent combine, then his stock heated up before the draft and the Pats took him #10 overall in the 1st.
I really hope that you are not basing your draft boards on the pundits or the numerous 'mock drafts' that are littering the internet. I know BB doesn't.

I agree with you more times than not, but I'm not getting you here. Mayo had a history (2+ seasons) of production in the SEC, with the production being exactly in the wheelhouse of what the Pats were looking for. After the combine, Mayo was still generally thought of as a late 1st round pick.

Barwin has a limited history on defense in the Big East, with the success he had not directly applying to what the Pats will ask him to do (to be fair, almost all OLB/DE candidates outside Sintim are in the same boat). Barwin has shot up significantly more in the public/scouting perception than Mayo ever did.

It didn't take much thinking to put Mayo on the Pats last year. Barwin is a different situation in that you have to project his skills in the Pats scheme, anticipate how Belichick might project him and determine if Belichick really thinks OLB is a top need (likely to be other value in the secondary, WR and OT). But hey...if it were easy to do we probably wouldn't be talking about it.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I agree with you more times than not, but I'm not getting you here. Mayo had a history (2+ seasons) of production in the SEC, with the production being exactly in the wheelhouse of what the Pats were looking for. After the combine, Mayo was still generally thought of as a late 1st round pick.

Barwin has a limited history on defense in the Big East, with the success he had not directly applying to what the Pats will ask him to do (to be fair, almost all OLB/DE candidates outside Sintim are in the same boat). Barwin has shot up significantly more in the public/scouting perception than Mayo ever did.

It didn't take much thinking to put Mayo on the Pats last year. Barwin is a different situation in that you have to project his skills in the Pats scheme, anticipate how Belichick might project him and determine if Belichick really thinks OLB is a top need (likely to be other value in the secondary, WR and OT). But hey...if it were easy to do we probably wouldn't be talking about it.

What's the most difficult aspect of projecting a prospect into a new role in the NFL? I'd contend it's the mental flexibility, toughness, and the overall work ethic/desire to excell.

Barwin:
- Freshman: recruited to Cincinnati as a TE. Saw playing time in all games as a true freshman as reserve TE and on Special Teams.
- Freshman: recruited as a walk-on basketball player, saw playing time in 18 games at power forward as a freshman, did well I gather.
- Sophomore: reserve TE/Special Teams in football as a Sophomore (the player he was behind had a very fine stat line in the playoffs for the Eagles in Arizona this year).
- Sophomore: walk-on reserve power forward for basketball, he played in 22 games with 31 rebounds, 9 blocked shots, and 5 steals...plus 38 fouls, defensive minded and hardly a shrinking violet.
- Junior: starting TE/Special Teams with 31 catches and 1 blocked punt on the season and an excellent Papa Johns bowl with multiple catches.
- Senior: converted to DE in the Spring, won the starting job, in his first year on defense led the Big East in sacks, adding 15.5 TFL, 7 PD, 6 QBH, and 3 BK, plus 1 TD as a goal line TE.

I contend this is a player who has the mental tools to adapt to new assignments, the work ethic/pride to strive to improve in the new assignment, and as patchick has documented, Demarcus Ware equivalent measurables from the Combine's athletic testing. Mayo's history compared favorably with Patrick Willis, better in my estimation. Despite the limited defensive history, Barwin's overall history is one of change, adapt, overcome, excell...I don't think it reasonable to put a Ware-like expectation on him, but he's got Vrabel/Bruschi-like traits and Ware-like athleticism...I'd roll the dice. He also played some Lacrosse in high school to go along with basketball and football, how can BB resist?

 

[Metaphors]

What's the most difficult aspect of projecting a prospect into a new role in the NFL? I'd contend it's the mental flexibility, toughness, and the overall work ethic/desire to excell.

All good points, but I guess I'm just spooked on selecting a bust at OLB or NT. For the Pats, weakness at these positions just cause the defense to fold like a card table. You become so easy to run at that the team can't afford to keep you on the field. It is just safer to spend your free agent money and get a player that has film against NFL caliber OL.

As an aside, I won't complain about any off-season/draft moves as long as Wilfork is signed long term. Trade Cassel and Vrabel for a cheese sandwich as long as it helps keep Wilfork on the team. Draft Barwin's grandmother in the first round. Whatever. Just get the big guy a contract.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

All good points, but I guess I'm just spooked on selecting a bust at OLB or NT. For the Pats, weakness at these positions just cause the defense to fold like a card table. You become so easy to run at that the team can't afford to keep you on the field. It is just safer to spend your free agent money and get a player that has film against NFL caliber OL.

As an aside, I won't complain about any off-season/draft moves as long as Wilfork is signed long term. Trade Cassel and Vrabel for a cheese sandwich as long as it helps keep Wilfork on the team. Draft Barwin's grandmother in the first round. Whatever. Just get the big guy a contract.

LOL, as my Pastor would say, "fear is not of God." Vince can be franchised next year if they can't work out anything right away.

OLB currently has 6 veteran and developmental players on the roster, with at least one of the ILB players as an option to crosstrain. It hardly makes sense to draft any prospects in the third round or later given the talent pool currently on roster, with four picks from #23 -#58, BB might just as well look to target truly unique talents to work with. Once you get out of the top 10, those are few.

 

[Metaphors]

LOL, as my Pastor would say, "fear is not of God." Vince can be franchised next year if they can't work out anything right away.

OLB currently has 6 veteran and developmental players on the roster, with at least one of the ILB players as an option to crosstrain. It hardly makes sense to draft any prospects in the third round or later given the talent pool currently on roster, with four picks from #23 -#58, BB might just as well look to target truly unique talents to work with. Once you get out of the top 10, those are few.

My priest always said we should be "God-fearing" church folk, so no wonder I'm so messed up (that's my story and I'm sticking to it).

I'm with you. If a guy has a unique skill set and backs it up with intelligence and a genuine desire to succeed, then the downside is still pretty good...meaning you can always find a place for that player to make a difference.

BTW, these conversations about which handful of potentially elite players the Pats will use to supplement a loaded roster are pretty sweet. A lot better than figuring out which QB you are going to throw out or how you are going to plug the holes left by departing free agents.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

My priest always said we should be "God-fearing" church folk, so no wonder I'm so messed up (that's my story and I'm sticking to it).

Not to sidetrack the discussion, but your Priest's admonition refers to fearsome power (as the only being with the power to cast you into the fiery pit) as opposed to using fear to drive you.

After finding the inspiration of the "truly unique talents" concept last night, those who fear a Day One WR may wish to brace themselves.

 

[dryheat44]

Don't forget they lost Brookings as well.

And Boley. I think they took Lofton last year in anticipation of losing Brookings, but I'm going to go ahead and say LB is still going to be their priority. The good part of that is Boley was a 4-3 Will. There's all kind of options to fill that slot, many of which wouldn't be on Belichick's draft board.

 

[mgteich]

Would you clarify. Not the theology, that's fine.

Are you saying to choose a top 10 OLB or not at all? You indicate that 3rd and later is a waste (I agree). Then you same that BB will looke for a unique talent only available in the Top 10.

For example, I like Unger a lot, and I think he could be a stud for us. However, I wouldn't confuse him with Clady and think that he is Top 10 talent.

LOL, as my Pastor would say, "fear is not of God." Vince can be franchised next year if they can't work out anything right away.

OLB currently has 6 veteran and developmental players on the roster, with at least one of the ILB players as an option to crosstrain. It hardly makes sense to draft any prospects in the third round or later given the talent pool currently on roster, with four picks from #23 -#58, BB might just as well look to target truly unique talents to work with. Once you get out of the top 10, those are few.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Would you clarify. Not the theology, that's fine.

Are you saying to choose a top 10 OLB or not at all? NO You indicate that 3rd and later is a waste (I agree). Then you same that BB will looke for a unique talent only available in the Top 10.

Top 10 talents are usually there because they are unique talents (e.g. Mayo). Unique talents can be found later in the draft, they just aren't as obvious as those in the Top 10 (Meriweather, Wilfork). I'm sure you have your own ideas of players who offer unique value in the late 1st and the 2nd round.

 

[mgteich]

1) Actually, I don't have any players projected to go in the late first or second who I would consider Top 10 talent. And even if there was one now, he might not be a "surprise" at the time of the draft (mayo moved up). As the draft approaches, consensus is reached on Top 10 blue chip talent.

2) I don't think Meriweather was a Top 10 talent. Wilfork was rated a Top 10 talent at the time of the draft.

3) I'm using Top 10 as a placeholder for "blue-chip stud". In any give year there ar 6-15 such players. And yes, I recognize that a HOFer can be had in the 6th round.

4) Sometimes players will go earlier or later because of supply and demand, or because a team locks on to a particular player.

BOTTOM LINE
I don't expect to get a Top 10 talent at 23 or 34 or 47 or 58. If there is one there around 15 that Belichick wants, I expect him to attmpt to trade up. If on the other hand he feels that 5-6 linebackers available at 15 are all worth about the same, then of course he won't trade up and may even not draft a LB in the first round.

Top 10 talents are usually there because they are unique talents (e.g. Mayo). Unique talents can be found later in the draft, they just aren't as obvious as those in the Top 10 (Meriweather, Wilfork). I'm sure you have your own ideas of players who offer unique value in the late 1st and the 2nd round.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

1) Actually, I don't have any players projected to go in the late first or second who I would consider Top 10 talent. And even if there was one now, he might not be a "surprise" at the time of the draft (mayo moved up). As the draft approaches, consensus is reached on Top 10 blue chip talent.

2) I don't think Meriweather was a Top 10 talent. Wilfork was rated a Top 10 talent at the time of the draft.

3) I'm using Top 10 as a placeholder for "blue-chip stud". In any give year there ar 6-15 such players. And yes, I recognize that a HOFer can be had in the 6th round.

4) Sometimes players will go earlier or later because of supply and demand, or because a team locks on to a particular player.

BOTTOM LINE
I don't expect to get a Top 10 talent at 23 or 34 or 47 or 58. If there is one there around 15 that Belichick wants, I expect him to attmpt to trade up. If on the other hand he feels that 5-6 linebackers available at 15 are all worth about the same, then of course he won't trade up and may even not draft a LB in the first round.

Okay, first, take "Top 10" and toss it out as a benchmark, Matthew Stafford is not a "Top 10" talent, but he's rated up there because he's an adequate prospect in a position of extreme need. We can all lust for an Aaron Curry, but there's more to the draft then the "Top 10," clear your mind and start over.

Now, you have been hollering for OL help. Let's look for some "unique" OL talent projected to be available in the late first through 4th round:

Mack - Is there any question that he could play all three interior OL positions at a high level? I think we can safely say he has the tools to excell at either G or C. though he may be better suited to a drive blocking scheme than a zone blocking scheme.

Unger - He can play all 5 positions.

Eric Wood - He can play all three interior OL positions and he showed more athleticism then people expected.

William Beatty - Excellent feet, quality run blocker, all the tools to be another Matt Light and maybe more.

Jamon Meredeth - Another LT prospect who could be as good or better than Matt Light.

There will be those who argue that Matt Light is setting the "unique" bar too low, but this is an 8 year starting LT on a four time Super Bowl team, that's unique enough by NFL standards.

Mack, Unger, Wood - are they as good as Neal/Mankins/Koppen? Are they better than Yates/Hochstein/Connelly? I think they can be as good as the first group, which automatically puts them ahead of the second. Loadholt, Duke, and Herman are all there in the same projection, but I think "unique" can be applied to them only in terms of their size, not their performance.

It's harder to find "unique" after that, but I think Tyronne Green and T.J. Lang are worth a closer look - Green is still raw after switching from the DL and Lang is a multi-position player who excelled in his All-Star game, like Mankins. Hopefully this exercise helps you grasp the perspective I'm trying to take here as we review the roster and project team needs in the draft...

 

[mayoclinic]

Patchick, here's your requested dozen, and the first 4 picks to save you time.
CB Alphonso Smith
CB Darius Butler
DE Jarron Gilbert
LB Connor Barwin
LB Clint Sintim
S Patrick Chung
S Louis Delmas
OT William Beatty
OT Jamon Meredith
C/OG Eric Wood
C/OG Jonathan Luigs
WR Brian Robiskie

But seriously, I'm fairly confident you'll get 3 players from your list.

Looking back at the OP and thinking a bit more about this, there are about 10 players whom I really love in this draft - not just like, but that I think are extremely high ceiling players with 10 year pro bowl potential, who combine rare athleticism with intangibles, and who seem to be good fit for the Pats. Many may not reach that ceiling and some may bust, but these are the players who I think have a chance to really stand out as impact players.

5 of these players are likely top 10 picks: WR Michael Crabtree, OT Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe, LB Aaron Curry, and DT BJ Raji. Unless one of these unexpectedly falls (e.g., injury concerns with Monroe or Crabtree) they will not be a consideration for us. If one fell into the teens I think they would be well worth trading up to get.

The other 5 or so are likely to go anywhere from 20 to 60. I would like to get as many of these guys as possible. In alphabetic order:

1. Connor Barwin, OLB. The chance of getting a player with DeMarcus Ware like size/speed/agility and Vrabelesque versatility and intelligence is extremely rare.

2. William Beatty, OT. A 6'6" 309# "dancing bear" kind of guy, with footwork and agility that can't be taught. He's probably as good as D'Brickashaw Ferguson was coming out in 2006. He needs to get stronger and more physical, but next to Jason Smith he may be the most gifted OT in this class. Getting a potential franchise LOT anytime outside of the top 10 would be a coup.

3. Louis Delmas, S. I've often wondered what the Pats would be like with Troy Polamalu on our D. As good as Warren is, we could have had Polamalu at #13 in 2003. Delmas is our best chance of getting something similar - add another 10 lbs. of muscle and a couple of years experience, and we could have something very special.

4. Hakeem Nicks, WR. The more film I watch of Nicks, the more impressed I am. He isn't blazingly fast but he runs beautiful routes and always manages to get open, and he catches everything thrown to him. He's tough, physical and hard to bring down. He reminds me of some kind of combination of TO, Chad Johnson and Anquan Boldin, without the attitude. WR is one of my least favorite positions to draft, but this kid is a really interesting prospect, and next to (possibly) Michael Crabtree, I think he will end up the best pro WR to come out this year.

5. Sean Smith, CB/S. Smith has probably the most questions of any of these prospects because of the lack of clarity as to what position he should play, and there is the least known about him. But he has rare physical ability in terms of size, speed and agility, and could be an Asomugha-like player.

Beyond these there are a lot of excellent prospects, as discussed in the OP and subsequent posts. But for my money, I would love to see the Pats get as many of these particular players as possible.

 

[patchick]

Looking back at the OP and thinking a bit more about this, there are about 10 players whom I really love in this draft - not just like, but that I think are extremely high ceiling players with 10 year pro bowl potential, who combine rare athleticism with intangibles, and who seem to be good fit for the Pats.

Great post, I love your 5 primary targets. 2 thoughts:

- While none of them are problem children, not all of them are plus intangibles guys either. In fact, I'd only count Delmas & Barwin in that category, making them the 2 prospects I really, really want to see on this team.

- So let's talk strategic order. Who is most likely to be available when? Here's my stab at what order they're likely to go in, based on a combination of mocks, past draft tendencies with similar players, and my own questionable judgment:

1. Beatty: Athletic LTs just don't hang around long. 50% chance to be gone before #23, 90% gone by 34, no shot at 47.

2. Barwin: Show me a big, athletic pass-rusher who wasn't "overdrafted." Think Derrick Harvey, Kamerion Wimbley, etc. 20% chance gone at #23, 65% gone by 34, 90% by 47.

3. S. Smith: With the spiraling cost of CBs, a guy with this physical potential opens eyes. 20% chance gone at #23, 50% gone by 34, 80% by 47.

4. Nicks: As good as he looks, he could still be the 5th WR off the board, and that's not a position that teams have reached high for of late. 10% gone at #23, 40% gone by 34, 70% by 47.

5. Delmas: He's special because he's an all-around package, not because of uncommon size, speed, etc. 5% gone by #23, 30% by 34, 60% by 47.

Ergo Beatty & Barwin are my 1st-round values, while the other three are all solid choices from 34 on. So first day could look something like:

23. Barwin (gets the nod on intangibles)
34. S. Smith
43. (trade up via #58 & 89) Delmas
47. Flexible, with an eye to OL, DL, WR

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Great post, I love your 5 primary targets. 2 thoughts:

- While none of them are problem children, not all of them are plus intangibles guys either. In fact, I'd only count Delmas & Barwin in that category, making them the 2 prospects I really, really want to see on this team.

- So let's talk strategic order. Who is most likely to be available when? Here's my stab at what order they're likely to go in, based on a combination of mocks, past draft tendencies with similar players, and my own questionable judgment:

1. Beatty: Athletic LTs just don't hang around long. 50% chance to be gone before #23, 90% gone by 34, no shot at 47.

2. Barwin: Show me a big, athletic pass-rusher who wasn't "overdrafted." Think Derrick Harvey, Kamerion Wimbley, etc. 20% chance gone at #23, 65% gone by 34, 90% by 47.

3. S. Smith: With the spiraling cost of CBs, a guy with this physical potential opens eyes. 20% chance gone at #23, 50% gone by 34, 80% by 47.

4. Nicks: As good as he looks, he could still be the 5th WR off the board, and that's not a position that teams have reached high for of late. 10% gone at #23, 40% gone by 34, 70% by 47.

5. Delmas: He's special because he's an all-around package, not because of uncommon size, speed, etc. 5% gone by #23, 30% by 34, 60% by 47.

Ergo Beatty & Barwin are my 1st-round values, while the other three are all solid choices from 34 on. So first day could look something like:

23. Barwin (gets the nod on intangibles)
34. S. Smith
43. (trade up via #58 & 89) Delmas
47. Flexible, with an eye to OL, DL, WR

The reasoning is sound, especially since I like Jamon Meredith and Sebastian Volmer a little later in the draft for OT. I need someone to sell me on Sean Smith over Nicks, Smith doesn't address a critical need (and I'm not sold on him even if he does), whereas Nicks is looking better and better as a prospect who can be groomed as an heir to Moss.

 

[mayoclinic]

Great post, I love your 5 primary targets. 2 thoughts:

- While none of them are problem children, not all of them are plus intangibles guys either. In fact, I'd only count Delmas & Barwin in that category, making them the 2 prospects I really, really want to see on this team.

- So let's talk strategic order. Who is most likely to be available when? Here's my stab at what order they're likely to go in, based on a combination of mocks, past draft tendencies with similar players, and my own questionable judgment:

1. Beatty: Athletic LTs just don't hang around long. 50% chance to be gone before #23, 90% gone by 34, no shot at 47.

2. Barwin: Show me a big, athletic pass-rusher who wasn't "overdrafted." Think Derrick Harvey, Kamerion Wimbley, etc. 20% chance gone at #23, 65% gone by 34, 90% by 47.

3. S. Smith: With the spiraling cost of CBs, a guy with this physical potential opens eyes. 20% chance gone at #23, 50% gone by 34, 80% by 47.

4. Nicks: As good as he looks, he could still be the 5th WR off the board, and that's not a position that teams have reached high for of late. 10% gone at #23, 40% gone by 34, 70% by 47.

5. Delmas: He's special because he's an all-around package, not because of uncommon size, speed, etc. 5% gone by #23, 30% by 34, 60% by 47.

Ergo Beatty & Barwin are my 1st-round values, while the other three are all solid choices from 34 on. So first day could look something like:

23. Barwin (gets the nod on intangibles)
34. S. Smith
43. (trade up via #58 & 89) Delmas
47. Flexible, with an eye to OL, DL, WR

Unfortunately your reasoning makes total sense. I definitely can see the potential for a trade up in the 2nd round. As you note, #58 + 89 gets us to around #43. Trading #89 and #47 gets us to around #33.

I would love to see us end up with at least 3 of those 5 players in some combination. 4 would be ideal, but will be very hard to achieve unless someone happens to fall (like Nicks to 47, which is unlikely but possible).

Beatty vs. Barwin at #23 is quite difficult. To my mind, if Beatty falls to 23 he would be my pick because of the scarcity of good LOT candidates, unless he were rated significantly lower than the others. Barwin would probably be the next priority at #34, because pass rushers are so highly valued. If we truly don't believe he will last until 34 then I agree it comes down to a Beatty/Barwin pick'em calculation.

While I prefer Delmas and Sean Smith, there are enough other viable options at CB and S that we would still end up with an excellent player.

I must say, Nicks is the guy messing things up for me, because I want to prioritize the defense and I'm suspicious of drafting WRs early, but the more I watch of him the more I'm convinced that he would be awesome on this team.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Here are 10 first day picks that I would be happy if the Patriots landed 4 of them.

Clay Matthews
Paul Cushing
Sean Smith
Jarious Byrd
Eben Britton
Paul Kruger- Still not sure if he would be a good fit for a 3-4 and maybe he belongs in a 4-3. so I'll add Delmas
Connor

Barwin
Robert Ayers
Alex Mack
Patrick Chung

* I'd be really happy if Malcomb Jenkins fell to 23

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Here are 10 first day picks that I would be happy if the Patriots landed 4 of them.

Clay Matthews
Paul Cushing

Who?

And where exactly do you see Matthews playing?