#23, #34, #47, #58

[mgteich]

The possibility of a top LT has to be tempting to the team. Perhaps we would be better off trading up from 34 to 26 with our 89 and choose
#23 best value LB or OT available
#26 best value LB or OT available
#47 best safety available
#58 best OG available
#99 best CB available
#120 best WR available
#186 best long snapper available
========================
For me, the only condition necessary is that we finalize the choice of a corner, presumably Springs in free agency.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Who?

And where exactly do you see Matthews playing?

I see him playing ILB and/or OLB.

"Is smart enough to play any LB positions" "has a great upside" "old school coaches dream" PFW. Besides being dedicated to football and having an outstanding work ethic and being a selfless team player, there's not much to like.

If you check most of the current rankings, you will see that he has moved up to the 20's.

 

[rookBoston]

Really, comparing Barwin to Vrabel and Ware is so baffling that I can hardly bring myself to respond. Drafting Barwin is not drafting a replacement for Vrabel, people!

Drafting Barwin is tantamount to giving TBC some competition for playing time. The kid is not a finished product, and if he were he would be gone way before we'd ever have a chance at him. Even his biggest supporters will have to concede that he doesn't come without risk. We've seen exciting prospects with better measurables and better intangibles come into the league and lay an egg.

Barwin will not be starting Week One at OLB across from Thomas. He'd come into camp as a project, and-- at best-- see playing time in a Brandon Meriweather kind of a way... they'll ease him into substitution patterns, and have him earn more playing time over the course of the season.

On draft philosophy: BB looks at all dimensions in a player evaluation. He will make accommodations in his evaluation for extenuating circumstances, like playing behind two Heisman trophy winners, and stuff like that. He is prepared make a bet on prospects based solely on circumstantial evidence and potential. But not in the first round. All his first rounders were productive and significant players in college with a full reel of film to prove it.

I like Barwin. I think he's a good bet. He fits our scheme and has intriguing intangibles. But he's hard to project into the NFL... which makes me think of #47, not #23. A guy like Alphonso Smith or Knowshon Moreno strikes me as a better representation of what we should expect to get for the investment of a #23 pick. Myself, I would trade up for Maualuga and roll the dice that an OLB drops to us in the 2nd.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Really, comparing Barwin to Vrabel and Ware is so baffling that I can hardly bring myself to respond. Drafting Barwin is not drafting a replacement for Vrabel, people!

Drafting Barwin is tantamount to giving TBC some competition for playing time. The kid is not a finished product, and if he were he would be gone way before we'd ever have a chance at him. Even his biggest supporters will have to concede that he doesn't come without risk. We've seen exciting prospects with better measurables and better intangibles come into the league and lay an egg.

Barwin will not be starting Week One at OLB across from Thomas. He'd come into camp as a project, and-- at best-- see playing time in a Brandon Meriweather kind of a way... they'll ease him into substitution patterns, and have him earn more playing time over the course of the season.

On draft philosophy: BB looks at all dimensions in a player evaluation. He will make accommodations in his evaluation for extenuating circumstances, like playing behind two Heisman trophy winners, and stuff like that. He is prepared make a bet on prospects based solely on circumstantial evidence and potential. But not in the first round. All his first rounders were productive and significant players in college with a full reel of film to prove it.

I like Barwin. I think he's a good bet. He fits our scheme and has intriguing intangibles. But he's hard to project into the NFL... which makes me think of #47, not #23. A guy like Alphonso Smith or Knowshon Moreno strikes me as a better representation of what we should expect to get for the investment of a #23 pick. Myself, I would trade up for Maualuga and roll the dice that an OLB drops to us in the 2nd.

Well thought out and cogent, up until you start trying to buy a 4-3 MLB who shows up to job interviews out of shape. Alphonso Smith is certainly a safe pick, Moreno's value seems a bit watered down with the current roster strength at RB. I get that Barwin's one year on defense concerns you, but he does have four seasons of game film, two as a starter. Yep, one was offense and one defense, don't you just love a challenge?

If you want a safe pick who will produce right away, draft a Center. This team is far enough along in the rebuilding process that some risk can be taken...or was trading Mike Vrabel away because BB is feeling insecure and wants to take the "safe" road? The "safe" road dictates you go out and buy veterans in Free Agency - hello Redskins. The "safe" road said sign a veteran QB last Fall. It's fourth and 1 at mid-field, NE is up by three - do you punt or go for the first down?

Situational football rook, in the last draft it was riskier to draft an ILB who shot up the boards late and pass on the LTs, but the need was at ILB and so was the value to the team. The need is an edge rusher, "safe" is Clint Sintim or Larry English, but Barwin has the higher ceiling and his track record for adapting to change is more proven. I like the kid who has shown he can adapt, improvise, and overcome.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Well said Gunnery Sergeant Highway. lol

 

[Feep50]

Sean Smith and Clay Mattews are my must get guys. I can be flexible on Smith but Matthews in the 2nd round is a must.

If Matthews was available at #34 that would be such great pick for us. I wouldn't be shocked if we took him at #23....

At this point my binky's are Matthews and Chung. Both bring the wood on every play.... Hard-nosed football!

 

[patchick]

Really, comparing Barwin to Vrabel and Ware is so baffling that I can hardly bring myself to respond. Drafting Barwin is not drafting a replacement for Vrabel, people!

Drafting Barwin is tantamount to giving TBC some competition for playing time. The kid is not a finished product, and if he were he would be gone way before we'd ever have a chance at him. Even his biggest supporters will have to concede that he doesn't come without risk. We've seen exciting prospects with better measurables and better intangibles come into the league and lay an egg.

Barwin will not be starting Week One at OLB across from Thomas. He'd come into camp as a project, and-- at best-- see playing time in a Brandon Meriweather kind of a way... they'll ease him into substitution patterns, and have him earn more playing time over the course of the season.

...

I like Barwin. I think he's a good bet. He fits our scheme and has intriguing intangibles. But he's hard to project into the NFL... which makes me think of #47, not #23. A guy like Alphonso Smith or Knowshon Moreno strikes me as a better representation of what we should expect to get for the investment of a #23 pick. Myself, I would trade up for Maualuga and roll the dice that an OLB drops to us in the 2nd.

Statements in green: absolutely. As you say, even Barwin's biggest supporters (yep, I'm one) acknowledge he is a risky round-1 pick who is very unlikely to start year 1. Not only is he very raw on defense, but the 3-4 OLB position is always risky to draft toward. The argument has NEVER been that he'll just slid in to make us forget Vrabel; it's that he has such a rare and valuable set of raw ingredients that he's worth gambling on.

Which brings us to the purple statement. Rook, I've looked at every DE/OLB type drafted since Merriman & Ware, and the ONLY one with measurables comparable to Barwin was David Pollack. I'm very curious who you're thinking of with "better measurables and better intangibles."

Finally, the two items in blue. As you say, a more proven & experienced version of Barwin simply doesn't come available in the bottom 3rd of the draft. So at #23, you compromise on something: experience, athleticism, size, intangibles, readiness, position, etc. I'm choosing experience, but if you wanted to make the case for a Sintim instead for immediate readiness, that's more than reasonable. In the case of Moreno (or, say, an interior OL), the position is more than I can stomach.

But Alphonso Smith is an interesting one. For a long time he was the official "safe" pick, but a guy his size putting up sub-par numbers for quickness and leaping ability really gives me pause. Those are supposed to be the areas that let the little guys make up for their lack of height. So I'm not sure I can call him "safe," or good value, at #23.

 

[mgteich]

I always find amusing when we cannot stomach drafting an offensive lineman in the first or persumably in the almost first at 35. Let for a moment consider that the replacement to Upshaw and the league actually want to avoid a strike or lockout and do indeed negotiate a new CBA before next season.

WE WILL HAVE ZERO OFFENSIVE GUARDS
All four are signed only through 2009.

WE WOULD BE BETTER OFF AT TACKLE
Light is signed through 2010. The rest are signed through 2009.

 

[patchick]

I always find amusing when we cannot stomach drafting an offensive lineman in the first or persumably in the almost first at 35. Let for a moment consider that the replacement to Upshaw and the league actually want to avoid a strike or lockout and do indeed negotiate a new CBA before next season.

WE WILL HAVE ZERO OFFENSIVE GUARDS
All four are signed only through 2009.

WE WOULD BE BETTER OFF AT TACKLE
Light is signed through 2010. The rest are signed through 2009.

Since I was the one who just talked about "not stomaching" certain positions at #23, I'll gladly respond.

First off, I've said often that OT would be a strong consideration at #23, so we're only talking about interior linemen. And given the depth of quality interior linemen in this draft, I feel confident of finding one in the 2nd round. Thus OG/C at #23 would be poor strategic drafting...which I can't stomach.

 

[mgteich]

points very well taken!

An OT in the first or at 34 and a guard in the 2nd is ceratinly not a majority view.

Since I was the one who just talked about "not stomaching" certain positions at #23, I'll gladly respond.

First off, I've said often that OT would be a strong consideration at #23, so we're only talking about interior linemen. And given the depth of quality interior linemen in this draft, I feel confident of finding one in the 2nd round. Thus OG/C at #23 would be poor strategic drafting...which I can't stomach.

 

[PATSNUTme]

points very well taken!

An OT in the first or at 34 and a guard in the 2nd is ceratinly not a majority view.

This is suppose to be a very strong class at OT and C. Some of the OT's will convert to G. So, you may get the same kind of guy in the 3rd or 4th round that you would in the late 1st or 2nd.

I'm a strong believer that good teams are built along the lines. If it were a dire need this year I would go for a 1st round OT, trading up if needed. But I think the OLB/ILB and the DB's are the priorities this year.

 

[mayoclinic]

Since I was the one who just talked about "not stomaching" certain positions at #23, I'll gladly respond.

First off, I've said often that OT would be a strong consideration at #23, so we're only talking about interior linemen. And given the depth of quality interior linemen in this draft, I feel confident of finding one in the 2nd round. Thus OG/C at #23 would be poor strategic drafting...which I can't stomach.

I would like to see us come away from the draft with at least one OL in the first 3 rounds. It could be as low as a third round OG (Trevor Canfield). A second round OG/C (Mack/Woods/Unger) is definitely an option. My preference is always for good OT prospects because they are so much harder to find, which is I think that if William Beatty falls to 23 we have to give him serious consideration. The same would probably hold with Jamon Meredith at 58 (who also has versatility at OG). I'm not sure about Eben Britton. I do not see any interior lineman worth reaching for at #23.

My ideal scenario would probably be something like William Beatty at 23 and Trevor Canfield at 89 or better yet 97 (though I doubt he'll fall that far), with 3-4 picks in between spent on the defense.

 

[VJCPatriot]

The reasoning is sound, especially since I like Jamon Meredith and Sebastian Volmer a little later in the draft for OT. I need someone to sell me on Sean Smith over Nicks, Smith doesn't address a critical need (and I'm not sold on him even if he does), whereas Nicks is looking better and better as a prospect who can be groomed as an heir to Moss.

An heir to Moss??? Whoa cut down on the hyperbole.
Nicks is nowhere near the freak that Moss is.
Nicks might turn into a solid possession receiver but he can't begin to be compared to Moss.

There are still a few questionmarks about Nicks - such as does he have the speed to create separation at the NFL level? Nicks ran a 4.51 40 at the combine, Moss ran a 4.25. Nicks size is good for a receiver but at 6'1 he's nowhere near the mismatch that Moss poses at 6'4.

Furthermore Randy has proven to be an extremely intelligent and gifted receiver who picked up the Pats system in just 1 year, connecting for 23 TDs with Tom Brady his FIRST season in New England! And Moss also holds the rookie record for receiving TDs at 17. Will Nicks come in and do that? VERY DOUBTFUL.

I'd say the probably is almost 0% of that happening, and if he comes to the Patriots the odds are probably worse since the offense is so complex and will demand that he learn the option route system and will have to read the defense and adjust accordingly. Has he ever had to do that in his college experience before?

 

[mayoclinic]

An heir to Moss??? Whoa cut down on the hyperbole.
Nicks is nowhere near the freak that Moss is.
Nicks might turn into a solid possession receiver but he can't begin to be compared to Moss.

There are still a few questionmarks about Nicks - such as does he have the speed to create separation at the NFL level? Nicks ran a 4.51 40 at the combine, Moss ran a 4.25. Nicks size is good for a receiver but at 6'1 he's nowhere near the mismatch that Moss poses at 6'4.

Furthermore Randy has proven to be an extremely intelligent and gifted receiver who picked up the Pats system in just 1 year, connecting for 23 TDs with Tom Brady his FIRST season in New England! And Moss also holds the rookie record for receiving TDs at 17. Will Nicks come in and do that? VERY DOUBTFUL.

I'd say the probably is almost 0% of that happening, and if he comes to the Patriots the odds are probably worse since the offense is so complex and will demand that he learn the option route system and will have to read the defense and adjust accordingly. Has he ever had to do that in his college experience before?

I don't think Nicks and Moss is a good comparison as they are different style receivers, and I certainly wouldn't expect Nicks to challenge Moss' rookie numbers, nor should we expect that. But at some point we need to develop a WR who can succeed Moss as a #1 guy, and I think Nicks has as good a chance of being that guy as anyone. He is more in the mold of Chad Johnson/Terrell Owens than Moss, but he is a talented prospect.

Moss is the rare "physical freak" who plays up to his measurables. Chad Jackson was closer to Moss physically than Hakeem Nicks will ever be, but look how he flamed out. The NFL is full of physical freak WRs who haven't played up to their hype (and there are several of those available in this draft if we wanted that). Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson appear to be reversing some of that trend. But there are many more talented WRs with less than ideal speed - in addition to Johnson and Owens, Larry Fitzgerald is an obvious example. All of these guys had question marks about their timed speed and ability to get separation. So did Jerry Rice coming out of college, allowing him to fall to the 49ers at #16.

Looking at film of Nicks, he runs beautiful routes and manages to get open with high frequency. He has deceptive speed with a nice burst, and can get behind DBs. He is physical and hard to bring down, an is good for a lot of yards after the catch. And he has phenomenal hands. Not a bad overall deal.

I think Nicks would be a tremendous complement to Moss and Welker. With a few years under Moss' tutelage he could quite possibly become a #1 calibre WR in the NFL. Nothing is a given, but he seems as good a bet as anyone. I would take him in a heartbeat over the WRs with superior speed and less discipline, like Maclin and Heyward-Bey.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

An heir to Moss??? Whoa cut down on the hyperbole.
Nicks is nowhere near the freak that Moss is.
Nicks might turn into a solid possession receiver but he can't begin to be compared to Moss.

There are still a few questionmarks about Nicks - such as does he have the speed to create separation at the NFL level? Nicks ran a 4.51 40 at the combine, Moss ran a 4.25. Nicks size is good for a receiver but at 6'1 he's nowhere near the mismatch that Moss poses at 6'4.

Furthermore Randy has proven to be an extremely intelligent and gifted receiver who picked up the Pats system in just 1 year, connecting for 23 TDs with Tom Brady his FIRST season in New England! And Moss also holds the rookie record for receiving TDs at 17. Will Nicks come in and do that? VERY DOUBTFUL.

I'd say the probably is almost 0% of that happening, and if he comes to the Patriots the odds are probably worse since the offense is so complex and will demand that he learn the option route system and will have to read the defense and adjust accordingly. Has he ever had to do that in his college experience before?

Oh good grief, why does an heir have to be a duplicate? Someone needs to fill the #1 WR role, drafting one this year puts him on track for Moss' UFA year.

Nicks is faster than Jerry Rice, he's reported to be a decent route runner and has great hands - I'll happily pass on another super athletic Chad Jackson and go for the slower guy with the great hands who had to work harder at getting open and presumably developed better work habits as a result.

This kid has the same basic speed as Brian Robiske whom people are drooling over - we do have to wait for his change of direction numbers, but production and big play ability in college can't be faulted - and the dread CB Alphonso Smith has named him one of a group of three he found to be the most difficult to cover (Calvin Johnson, Darius Heywood-Bey, and Nicks), Since Johnson and Heywood-Bey are 4.3 burners, and Nicks is a 4.5 slogger, one wonders what made him so difficult for a 21 interception CB to cover?

 

[Patriot Missile]

Come now Box. 2/10 of a second is a deal breaker. Doesn't every wr and cb run 4.3s in the NFL?

In reality the difference between a 4.51 and a 4.38 is about 1 stride. The 40 is a measuring stick for speed but it can also be a over hyped stat as well. With cbs and wrs I look closely at their shorter dashes and early seperation. That creates distance where a slower guy can beat the faster guy if he beat him off the line.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Come now Box. 2/10 of a second is a deal breaker. Doesn't every wr and cb run 4.3s in the NFL?

In reality the difference between a 4.51 and a 4.38 is about 1 stride. The 40 is a measuring stick for speed but it can also be a over hyped stat as well. With cbs and wrs I look closely at their shorter dashes and early seperation. That creates distance where a slower guy can beat the faster guy if he beat him off the line.

I was actually watching coverage of the Combine and they did an interesting exercise using superimposed images of athletes from the same group running the 40. Looking at the images even a .10 second difference was pretty darn big gap. Getting a step on someone in the NFL is huge. It can be the difference between an extra 10 yards down the field or dragged down for no YAC after catch.

Regardless of that, the main point is that Nicks is no Moss and the comparison still looks ridiculous even now. The only guy who comes close to reminding me of Randy Moss is Calvin Johnson who is stuck in the pit of Detroit. I'm not saying that Nicks can't succeed in the NFL with 4.5 speed if he also runs good routes, but to expect him to be able to fill Randy Moss' shoes is QUITE unrealistic.

 

[ayjackson]

Regardless of that, the main point is that Nicks is no Moss and the comparison still looks ridiculous even now. The only guy who comes close to reminding me of Randy Moss is Calvin Johnson who is stuck in the pit of Detroit. I'm not saying that Nicks can't succeed in the NFL with 4.5 speed if he also runs good routes, but to expect him to be able to fill Randy Moss' shoes is QUITE unrealistic.

The only one comparing Nicks to Moss is YOU. Perhaps you don't know what an heir is.

 

[rookBoston]

If you want a safe pick who will produce right away, draft a Center. This team is far enough along in the rebuilding process that some risk can be taken...or was trading Mike Vrabel away because BB is feeling insecure and wants to take the "safe" road? The "safe" road dictates you go out and buy veterans in Free Agency - hello Redskins. The "safe" road said sign a veteran QB last Fall. It's fourth and 1 at mid-field, NE is up by three - do you punt or go for the first down?

I'm not looking for a safe pick. I'm looking for a smart pick. I'm prepared to take a chance on any guy, at the right value spot.

Were Wilfork, Mankins, Meriweather "safe" picks? I would call it "smart", but if that's "safe", then sure I'll take "safe". Knowing those players now, it seems pretty clear that our scouts understood exactly what we were getting when we drafted them. All of them have progressed exactly to plan, into reliable, week-in week-out contributors and solid starters.

If there's a OC in the draft class that can step in and take a starting role on this team, then bring him in. I would take a sure-thing starter at any position with #23, because that's how you build a team for the long run. He better be pretty good, cause the OC he needs to beat is really not that bad. Would that be a "safe" pick, knowing that even if he's a pro-bowler in the making he's likely to spend two seasons riding the pine? I wouldn't call it "safe"-- sounds more like a waste. Unless he doubles as an OG that can win the starting role from Neal, in which case *absolutely*!

My point: if you cant find an OLB that you like, that you feel absolutely confident about-- and by confident I mean the way BB must have felt about Mankins when he sent the card up-- then trade down, trade up, trade out, but don't force the next guy on your draft card into the first round slot just because he's the last best chance you've got to fill the roster gap. You can wait for the 2nd round to play the lotto.

If BB feels that Barwin IS a sure thing and a likely starter for the franchise then we need to be worried (in a Ty Warren kind of a way) that he may not last all the way to our pick. But, do you really think that's the case here? Experience at the position, level of competition... these are phrases that BB has used to describe his first rounds picks in the past.

The last time BB took a flier on a compelling physical talent with only a partial college resume but a ton of upside, he waited into the 2nd round and traded up to take Chad Jackson. Chad would not have been a safe pick at 20-whatever (where we took Moroney), but he was totally worth the risk at 36. I was, and remain, a huge fan of that selection, even tho Chad hasn't progressed the way we'd all hoped. But his ceiling was so high it was definitely worth the shot. That's the analogy I see for Barwin... although hopefully he'll turn out better in the end.

 

[VJCPatriot]

YouTube - Rich Eisen 2009 40 Yard Dash

Here's an example of simulcast near the end of the video.
Can you beat BJ Raji? LOL.

The only one comparing Nicks to Moss is YOU. Perhaps you don't know what an heir is.

So you concede that Nicks is no Randy Moss? Sensible conclusion.

PS There are worthy heirs and there is not even close. People who are not even close should not be discussed as heirs.
By common sense an heir is compared to the person they are supposed to be the successor to.

I'll even provide you an example.
Could Champ Bailey be the heir to Deion Sanders? That's credible.
Could Nicks be the heir to Randy Moss? I just don't see it.

If you want to hype someone up as the heir to Randy Moss, he better be pretty darn special.