#23, #34, #47, #58

[rookBoston]

The argument has NEVER been that he'll just slid in to make us forget Vrabel...

Um, yes it was. That's what I'm reacting to. People believe that he's the "perfect replacement" for Vrabel. Not my words. Verbatim. It's all over the board. Look for it. It's ridiculous.

I'm very curious who you're thinking of with "better measurables and better intangibles."

Gholston had the entire draft board drooling last year. Wimbley and... what's his name...Manny Lawson. We were all shocked when BB passed on Lawson. And Bobby Carpenter was LITERALLY intended to be the next great Mike Vrabel; he had all the intangibles, the OSU connection and the NFL bloodlines too.

None of them have made much of an impact... decent role players, some of them. Barwin can hope to be as successful as Wimbley.

As you say, a more proven & experienced version of Barwin simply doesn't come available in the bottom 3rd of the draft. So at #23, you compromise on something: experience, athleticism, size, intangibles, readiness, position, etc.

I disagree. This is probably our point of difference. I don't think you compromise at #23. If you cant find a starter, get out of the spot. If you only have two likely starters on your draft card who might make it to #23, when the first one gets taken a few spots ahead of you, you need to trade up into the next available draft spot and take the last sure thing. If it comes to #23 and there's no one who's going to contribute to your team with that degree of certainty, trade the pick into 2010, back into the 2nd round and take your leap of faith there. Hopefully, if you're lucky, you'll get two starters out of it!

 

[mgteich]

I do not buy the argument that a pick at 23 need be expected to be a starter from day 1, or even during his first year. Wilfork was a top 10 value, and he still shared time all year. Meriweather certainly wasn't a starter.

I would think that a non-QB picked in the last half of the first should be expected to be a contributer by the end of his first year and compete for the starting position in his next year.

I agree that the first round is not a place for projects or raw developmental rookies.

Belichick and the scouts can judge Barwin. Obviously, he is the #1 binkie of this board. Personally, I'm not buying. However, I DO think that there are linebackers (and DE's) who will be available at 23 and at 34 and who project to be 2010 starters. I also believe that there are OT's available in the same situation. So, for me, we should choose two from the available LB's, DE's and OT's and have a very successful first phase of the draft.

We can then go on to Phase 2: the next five picks (47, 58, 89, 97 and 120). 47 certainly seems a fine spot for a safety in this draft. If we have chosen all defense at that point, then we can focus on the OL in two of the next three picks. My hope is that at that point we would have: DE, LB, S, OG, OT and then be looking at 99 and 120 for whateve we think we need at that point (perhaps a WR or a DB).

Um, yes it was. That's what I'm reacting to. People believe that he's the "perfect replacement" for Vrabel. Not my words. Verbatim. It's all over the board. Look for it. It's ridiculous.



Gholston had the entire draft board drooling last year. Wimbley and... what's his name...Manny Lawson. We were all shocked when BB passed on Lawson. And Bobby Carpenter was LITERALLY intended to be the next great Mike Vrabel; he had all the intangibles, the OSU connection and the NFL bloodlines too.

None of them have made much of an impact... decent role players, some of them. Barwin can hope to be as successful as Wimbley.



I disagree. This is probably our point of difference. I don't think you compromise at #23. If you cant find a starter, get out of the spot. If you only have two likely starters on your draft card who might make it to #23, when the first one gets taken a few spots ahead of you, you need to trade up into the next available draft spot and take the last sure thing. If it comes to #23 and there's no one who's going to contribute to your team with that degree of certainty, trade the pick into 2010, back into the 2nd round and take your leap of faith there. Hopefully, if you're lucky, you'll get two starters out of it!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

My point: if you cant find an OLB that you like, that you feel absolutely confident about-- and by confident I mean the way BB must have felt about Mankins when he sent the card up-- then trade down, trade up, trade out, but don't force the next guy on your draft card into the first round slot just because he's the last best chance you've got to fill the roster gap. You can wait for the 2nd round to play the lotto.

"Force?" Just who am I bypassing to grab Barwin at #23? Your "binky" Maualuga? I think Barwin is a better "value" than Orakpo, Ev Brown, Cushing, Matthews, Maybin or any other OLB type whom draftniks project to round one. There are very few first round projections whom I would consider better value in round one. Yeh, "I'm" the silly bugger who thinks he could develop into a blend of Vrabel and Demarcus Ware. :snob:

The last time BB took a flier on a compelling physical talent with only a partial college resume but a ton of upside, he waited into the 2nd round and traded up to take Chad Jackson. Chad would not have been a safe pick at 20-whatever (where we took Moroney), but he was totally worth the risk at 36. I was, and remain, a huge fan of that selection, even tho Chad hasn't progressed the way we'd all hoped. But his ceiling was so high it was definitely worth the shot. That's the analogy I see for Barwin... although hopefully he'll turn out better in the end.

Now this is plain foolishness. If you read a Chad Jackson profile it stresses his poor route running and poor on-field awareness, not to mention his short-arm issues and his "inconsistent hands." Barwin? "Very coachable because of his intelligence, work ethic and motor." The knock on him is inexperience, Chad Jackson started 14 games, Barwin started that many on defense alone.

Gholston had the entire draft board drooling last year. Wimbley and... what's his name...Manny Lawson. We were all shocked when BB passed on Lawson. And Bobby Carpenter was LITERALLY intended to be the next great Mike Vrabel; he had all the intangibles, the OSU connection and the NFL bloodlines too.

And what was your position on any of these prospects? I'll confess to Lawson, but the other three were dropped long before my final board.

I disagree. This is probably our point of difference. I don't think you compromise at #23. If you cant find a starter, get out of the spot. If you only have two likely starters on your draft card who might make it to #23, when the first one gets taken a few spots ahead of you, you need to trade up into the next available draft spot and take the last sure thing. If it comes to #23 and there's no one who's going to contribute to your team with that degree of certainty, trade the pick into 2010, back into the 2nd round and take your leap of faith there. Hopefully, if you're lucky, you'll get two starters out of it!

Where do you plan to play this starter? Oh yes, Maualuga at ILB...NFL Draft Scout: "Maualuga might be a fierce hitter, but his lack of upper body definition was surprising." NFL network coverage of the Senior Bowl practices reported he looked out of shape at the weigh-in and sluggish in the first practice. SI's Tony Pauline called him a "slider:"

Rey Maualuga/LB/USC: Maualuga looked rusty today, both physically and mentally. He's not in the best of shape and was very hesitant to make decisions on the field. Maualuga seemed to get his bearings as the day proceeded, but his play was not reminiscent of a potential top-five pick.

 

[mayoclinic]

"Force?" Just who am I bypassing to grab Barwin at #23? Your "binky" Maualuga? I think Barwin is a better "value" than Orakpo, Ev Brown, Cushing, Matthews, Maybin or any other OLB type whom draftniks project to round one. There are very few first round projections whom I would consider better value in round one. Yeh, "I'm" the silly bugger who thinks he could develop into a blend of Vrabel and Demarcus Ware. :snob:

I think that that is the point. Consider the following 15 potential "top 20 players":

1. Malcolm Jenkins. CB/S tweener, ran a slower than expected 40 time at the combine, had good agility numbers. Could be a pick if he slid to 23 but if I'm going to go with a CB/S tweener I'll go with Sean Smith who has more physical upside. Won't get to 23 anyway.
2. Vontae Davis. Look how much productivity SF has gotten from his athletic freak brother at TE. Vontae is similarly inconsistent and immature. Not a player I want on the Pats.
3. Brian Orapko. Has done tremendously well with a bull rush and great strength, but seems to lack the agility and ability in space needed to play in space. Don't want him at a 3-4 OLB conversion even if he slides.
4. Everett Brown. If certainly more "ready" than Barwin right now, but at 6'1 1/2" is on the short side, and is probably maxe out on his frame at 256#. Might be a good edge rusher, but not clear how well he can hold up the point of attack. Is too short to effectively block the passing lanes. Close call, but I think you can debate short term impact with Brown vs. long-term impact with Barwin. I personally vote Barwin, and expect Brown to be gone anyway.
5. Aaron Maybin. Taller than Brown, but hasn't proven he can keep the weight on his frame. Not clear that he's stout enough to be effective against the run. Looked good in drills at the combine, but no real experience playing in space, and Barwin's TE background gives him the edge.
6. Michael Johnson. A 6'7" physical freak who showed good agility at the combine, but very inconsistent. May actually have more upside than Barwin, but the risk seems to me too great. Not sure he can play in space. Seems more like a DE than an OLB.
7. Brian Cushing. Steroid and injury issues scare me. Is smaller than Barwin and with less athletic upside. Didn't look good at ILB for USC when Maualuga was injured.
8. Clay Matthews. Has put on 60 lbs. in college just to get up to 240. May be maxed out. Isn't physical with blockers. Has only one year of starting experience. Like him, but I'll take Barwin hands down.
9. Rey Maualuga. Frankly, at the end of the season if you had put Maualuga at #23 I would have agreed, but the way he has handled himself this offseason scares the bejeesus out of me. He has been out of shape and sloppy in his preparation for the biggest job interview of his life. Is that what we want from #23? He looked totally out of shape and lacksadaisical at the combine. I understand the argument for him, but he has really scared me off.
10. James Laurinaitis. A 4-3 MLB with limited physical upside. Nice kid, good in coverage, but not great taking on blockers. Not a great fit for the Pats.
11. Jeremy Maclin. A "speed" WR who wasn't incredibly speedy at the combine. Good return man. Runs sloppy routes. Not particularly physical.
12. Darius Heyward-Bey. An uber Chad Jackson. Need I say more.
13. Michael Oher. Inconsistent OT who hasn't lived up to his physical skills. Intelligence and motivation issues. Doesn't seem a great fit.
14. Andre Smith. Does anyone really want to take a risk on him after his post-season meltdown?
15. Brandon Pettigrew. Good TE, but really what does he give us over Chris Baker? Similar kind of player. Do we really need a TE with what we have on the roster?

I won't even include Stafford or Sanchez, as QB is not a consideration for us. That makes 17 players.

That leaves me with the following big board:

1. Aaron Curry LB
2. BJ Raji DT
3. Jason Smith OT
4. Michael Crabtree WR
5. Eugene Monroe OT

These 5 are not likely to be a possibility for us, unless one unexpectedly drops, in which case we should trade up. All are probable top 10 picks. With the 17 players listed above, that covers 22 players and brings us to pick #23.

6. William Beatty OT - can't pass up the chance at a 10 year pro bowl LOT.
7. Connor Barwin DE/LB. I'll take a risk on his upside if Beatty is gone. If not, I hope he lasts to #34.
8. Hakeem Nicks RB - think he is the best RB in the draft for us. A true flanker opposite Moss.
9. Sean Smith CB/S. Incredible athleticism and upside.
10. Louis Delmas, S. A possible Polamalu on our team.

I hope to get 2 of those guys at #23 and #34, if we're lucky. I really hope one or more of them falls a bit and we can get him at #47, or trade up with #58 and #89 to #43 and get 4 of them, but that's dreaming.

The rest of my board is a bit less coherent. In some order (jumble them any way you want):

11. Robert Ayers, DE/LB. Think he would be the best SILB conversion.
12. Clint Sintim, LB. Another possible SILB conversion.
13. Larry English, LB. Another possible SILB conversion.
14. Percy Harvin, WR. Great in the open field.
15. Jarron Gilbert, DE. Possible eventual replacement for Richard Seymour.
16. Alphonso Smith, CB. Great ball skills.
17. DJ Moore, CB. See Alphonso Smith.
18. Darius Butler, CB. Great footwork, speed and versatility.
19. William Moore, S. Great size. Inconsistent.
20. Patrick Chung, S. Great motor and intangibles.
21. Eben Britton, OT. I like him a little bit less than Beatty,
22. Alex Mack, OG/C. Great interior line anchor.
23. Eric Wood, OG/C. See Alex Mack.
24. Max Unger, OG/C. Very versatile lineman.
25. Jamon Meredeth. Very versatile lineman who can play OT and OG.

Thoughts.

 

[patchick]

Gholston had the entire draft board drooling last year. Wimbley and... what's his name...Manny Lawson. We were all shocked when BB passed on Lawson. And Bobby Carpenter was LITERALLY intended to be the next great Mike Vrabel; he had all the intangibles, the OSU connection and the NFL bloodlines too.

Sorry to belabor this point, but not one of those players had ""better measurables and better intangibles" than Barwin, as you said. Not at all. Not one of them put up the numbers that Barwin did quickness, agility and explosiveness . Gholston was absolutely panned on intangibles. Wimbley was a one-year starter who was explosive but slow reading plays. Carpenter was controversial -- I know he was a favorite of yours, but many others scratched him based on a reputation for being extremely unintelligent and a general goofball. Lawson might have come closest, but he was maxed out at 240 lbs. while Barwin put up better numbers at 256, and Lawson's intangibles were very average.

Looking at others beyond the names you mentioned, Chad Greenway was a solid all-around prospect, but not spectacular in any way -- easily smaller, slower, and less explosive than Barwin. A.J. Hawk was a heck of a prospect, but ILB all the way for the Pats scheme -- and drafted #5 overall.

In fact, to keep some perspective: every player mentioned in this thread was gone before pick 23 in the draft.

OLB is simply a hard position to draft toward, and even a high pick doesn't guarantee much (ask the Jets). So up until now, the Pats have looked to free agency to fill the position. They're currently short an impact pass rusher, though, so my inclination would be to finally roll the dice this year. Think of it like QB. It's a risky position to project, but vitally important. You can't spend every #1 pick on centers and safeties just because they're most ready to start.

 

[mgteich]

We do need a top DE if we can get one. If it close between Barwin and Brown, then Brown should certainly be on our board. Ditto for Johnson and Jackson.

If you trade up to 43 (a trade we keep on discussing) and we do have a good chance at getting four top contributers. I would want 2 LB/DE's, a S and an OL, but that's me.

I think that that is the point. Consider the following 15 potential "top 20 players":

4. Everett Brown. If certainly more "ready" than Barwin right now, but at 6'1 1/2" is on the short side, and is probably maxe out on his frame at 256#. Might be a good edge rusher, but not clear how well he can hold up the point of attack. Is too short to effectively block the passing lanes. Close call, but I think you can debate short term impact with Brown vs. long-term impact with Barwin. I personally vote Barwin, and expect Brown to be gone anyway.
6. Michael Johnson. A 6'7" physical freak who showed good agility at the combine, but very inconsistent. May actually have more upside than Barwin, but the risk seems to me too great. Not sure he can play in space. Seems more like a DE than an OLB.
------------------------------------------------------
that covers 22 players and brings us to pick #23.

6. William Beatty OT - can't pass up the chance at a 10 year pro bowl LOT.
7. Connor Barwin DE/LB. I'll take a risk on his upside if Beatty is gone. If not, I hope he lasts to #34.
8. Hakeem Nicks RB - think he is the best RB in the draft for us. A true flanker opposite Moss.
9. Sean Smith CB/S. Incredible athleticism and upside.
10. Louis Delmas, S. A possible Polamalu on our team.

I hope to get 2 of those guys at #23 and #34, if we're lucky. I really hope one or more of them falls a bit and we can get him at #47, or trade up with #58 and #89 to #43 and get 4 of them, but that's dreaming.

The rest of my board is a bit less coherent. In some order (jumble them any way you want):

11. Robert Ayers, DE/LB. Think he would be the best SILB conversion.
12. Clint Sintim, LB. Another possible SILB conversion.
13. Larry English, LB. Another possible SILB conversion.
14. Percy Harvin, WR. Great in the open field.
15. Jarron Gilbert, DE. Possible eventual replacement for Richard Seymour.
16. Alphonso Smith, CB. Great ball skills.
17. DJ Moore, CB. See Alphonso Smith.
18. Darius Butler, CB. Great footwork, speed and versatility.
19. William Moore, S. Great size. Inconsistent.
20. Patrick Chung, S. Great motor and intangibles.
21. Eben Britton, OT. I like him a little bit less than Beatty,
22. Alex Mack, OG/C. Great interior line anchor.
23. Eric Wood, OG/C. See Alex Mack.
24. Max Unger, OG/C. Very versatile lineman.
25. Jamon Meredeth. Very versatile lineman who can play OT and OG.

Thoughts.

 

[mayoclinic]

We do need a top DE if we can get one. If it close between Barwin and Brown, then Brown should certainly be on our board. Ditto for Johnson and Jackson.

If you trade up to 43 (a trade we keep on discussing) and we do have a good chance at getting four top contributers. I would want 2 LB/DE's, a S and an OL, but that's me.

Assuming we can get 4 top contributors, I agree with you about wanting 1 OLB, 1 S and 1 OL. My preferences at this point are Connor Barwin at OLB, Louis Delmas or Sean Smith at S, and William Beatty at OT.

For the 4th pick, I partially agree with you about another LB/DE, but I am a bit up in the air. I love both Sean Smith and Louis Delmas and would love to get both, but I'm not 100% convinced Smith will be a CB and we don't need 2 safeties, so I probably go in a different direction even if both somehow are available. Right now there are 2 players who I like:

1. Hakeem Nicks, WR. A true flanker who would get considerable playing time along with Moss and Welker. Great hands, physical, good for yards after the catch. Has played in a pro offense. I'm not sure that for us he wouldn't be a better pick even than Michael Crabtree (more experience in a pro offense).

2. Robert Ayers, DE/LB. Ayers is 6'3" 270# with tremendous quickness for his size and great versatility. Played ILB in college, and has played DE, ILB and DT for Tennessee. Is very good with his hands and good at taking on blockers and playing the run. I see him as my #1 SILB candidate. He played with Mayo at Tennessee, and I could see Ayers and Mayo (with Guyton backing up both positions and coming in on long passing 3rd downs) giving us a tremendous ILB corps for the next 5-10 years.

Jarron Gilbert and a top OG/C (Alex Mack or Eric Wood) would also be high on my list for the 4th pick at this point, but slightly behind those 2 options.

 

[mgteich]

1) I agree with almost all your analysis. However, I don't think that the answer to having two good choices at safety (some would add Chung, Moore and Johnson) is to choose two.

2) While I like Nicks and Robiskie (the other choice at WR), my hope is that we sign one in free agency. I think that there are competitive WR's available but no one at the other positions (except jag safety).

4) If Belichick agrees with your analysis on Ayers, he won't hesitate. He'll pick him at 23. We would be set at ILB, with Guyton as the #3 in the rotation. We would then pick a LB or DE at 34.

Assuming we can get 4 top contributors, I agree with you about wanting 1 OLB, 1 S and 1 OL. My preferences at this point are Connor Barwin at OLB, Louis Delmas or Sean Smith at S, and William Beatty at OT.

For the 4th pick, I partially agree with you about another LB/DE, but I am a bit up in the air. I love both Sean Smith and Louis Delmas and would love to get both, but I'm not 100% convinced Smith will be a CB and we don't need 2 safeties, so I probably go in a different direction even if both somehow are available. Right now there are 2 players who I like:

1. Hakeem Nicks, WR. A true flanker who would get considerable playing time along with Moss and Welker. Great hands, physical, good for yards after the catch. Has played in a pro offense. I'm not sure that for us he wouldn't be a better pick even than Michael Crabtree (more experience in a pro offense).

2. Robert Ayers, DE/LB. Ayers is 6'3" 270# with tremendous quickness for his size and great versatility. Played ILB in college, and has played DE, ILB and DT for Tennessee. Is very good with his hands and good at taking on blockers and playing the run. I see him as my #1 SILB candidate. He played with Mayo at Tennessee, and I could see Ayers and Mayo (with Guyton backing up both positions and coming in on long passing 3rd downs) giving us a tremendous ILB corps for the next 5-10 years.

Jarron Gilbert and a top OG/C (Alex Mack or Eric Wood) would also be high on my list for the 4th pick at this point, but slightly behind those 2 options.

 

[mayoclinic]

1) I agree with almost all your analysis. However, I don't think that the answer to having two good choices at safety (some would add Chung, Moore and Johnson) is to choose two.

2) While I like Nicks and Robiskie (the other choice at WR), my hope is that we sign one in free agency. I think that there are competitive WR's available but no one at the other positions (except jag safety).

4) If Belichick agrees with your analysis on Ayers, he won't hesitate. He'll pick him at 23. We would be set at ILB, with Guyton as the #3 in the rotation. We would then pick a LB or DE at 34.

In my fantasy world someone signs Pierre Woods and we get a 2nd round comp pick, and end up with Beatty, Barwin, Delmas, Nicks and Ayers. Not going to happen, but that's why its a fantasy world.

I don't see a lot of WR talent in FA that I would take over Nicks, especially when you factor in the cost. Robiskie is a nice player, but I think Nicks has much more potential.

 

[cstjohn17]

Just saying the numbers makes me smile.
#23, #34, #47, #58
#23, #34, #47, #58
#23, #34, #47, #58 ...

The Patriots could swing for the fences with a couple of picks and try to land an all pro. If they are prudent I would rather see 2-3 doubles and a single. Four players in the top 50, this is going to be great.

 

[patchick]

1. Connor Barwin, OLB
2. William Beatty, OT
3. Louis Delmas, S
4. Hakeem Nicks, WR
5. Sean Smith, CB/S

Just thought I'd take a look at your "big 5" target list in light of NFP's recent re-rankings:

1. Connor Barwin, OLB - #29
2. William Beatty, OT - #24
3. Louis Delmas, S - #69
4. Hakeem Nicks, WR - #25
5. Sean Smith, CB/S - #19

I respect their list more than most, and I think it's a very realistic possibility that only 1 of the 5 will make it as far as #34.

 

[cstjohn17]

I respect their list more than most, and I think it's a very realistic possibility that only 1 of the 5 will make it as far as #34.

But 2 out of 5 will turn that frown upside down.

 

[mayoclinic]

Just thought I'd take a look at your "big 5" target list in light of NFP's recent re-rankings:

1. Connor Barwin, OLB - #29
2. William Beatty, OT - #24
3. Louis Delmas, S - #69
4. Hakeem Nicks, WR - #25
5. Sean Smith, CB/S - #19

I respect their list more than most, and I think it's a very realistic possibility that only 1 of the 5 will make it as far as #34.

Unfortunate but likely. Nicks seems to be rising on a lot of mocks I've seen.

Based on that sequence I would say:

- Beatty or Nicks at 23.
- Hopefully Barwin slips a few slots to 34. We could trade up to go get him if we needed to.
- Delmas at 47 or 58. I agree with you that his lack of spectacular physical measurables makes him the most likely of the 5 to go a bit later.

That would be 3/5. Larry English is at 66, so in their sequence he would be the additional pick at 47 or 58, to convert inside to SILB. Eric Wood is at 59, and would also be an option, particularly if we go with Nicks over Beatty at 23.

Since you mention respecting NFP's rankings, a couple of comments:

1. I almost added Robert Ayers to my 5 player list (Beatty, Barwin, Delmas, Nicks and Smith), and I see that NFP has him at #13 and calls him "as NFL-ready as any player in the draft". I think Ayers is the best SILB conversion prospect in the draft.

2. I see NFP has Jarron Gilbert at #28 and Tyson Jackson at #40. I agree with this.

3. NFP has Larry English falling to #69 and Clint Sintim falling to #85. I still like Sintim, but I think that his stiffness and lack of athleticism were evident at the combine, and I see him falling a bit similar to Cliff Avril last year, who many had pegged as a possible late 1st round pick based on the success of Purdue DEs as 3-4 OLBs.

4. I have been touting Mike Wallace for a while now as the best 2nd day WR prospect in the draft. NFP ranks him at 100, calling him "the wideout no one is talking about. A gifted vertical threat who gets up to speed instantly. He has a skill set similar to Darrius Heyward-Bey, but Wallace made more big plays during the year." On the other hand, the have everyone's darling Brian Robiskie rated at #84, noting "I don’t know what all the hype is about. Best-case scenario, he’s a No. 2 receiver at the next level with little upside."

 

[VJCPatriot]

You would spend a 1st round pick on a wide receiver? REALLY??

 

[mayoclinic]

You would spend a 1st round pick on a wide receiver? REALLY??

Probably not - I think I would go for the potential franchise left tackle - but Nicks is the one WR who I really like. In some ways, even more than Crabtree, as he has experience in a more pro-style offense. There is a definite need at WR.

I hate drafting WRs. I am suspicious of them, and think they have a high bust factor. I dislike even thinking about drafting a WR in round 1. But Nicks looks like the real thing to me, so I would at least give him some consideration.

 

[Mark Morse]

Just thought I'd take a look at your "big 5" target list in light of NFP's recent re-rankings:

1. Connor Barwin, OLB - #29
2. William Beatty, OT - #24
3. Louis Delmas, S - #69
4. Hakeem Nicks, WR - #25
5. Sean Smith, CB/S - #19

I respect their list more than most, and I think it's a very realistic possibility that only 1 of the 5 will make it as far as #34.

My worst fears have now been realized ... All the players I have zeroed in on are the same ones that are rising up the draft boards.

Question - is there a player ranked above #23 that BB will trade up for?

I see it falling out this way based upon NFP new rankings:

#23 Conner Barwin
#32 Trade #34 + #89 Darius Butler CB UConn
#47 Lawrence Sidbury LB/DE Richmond
#58 Eric Wood OC Louisville
#97 (C) Mike Wallace WR Mississippi

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's an evaluation of Nicks from Russ Lande at the Sporting News:

SportingNews.com - Your expert source for NCAA Football stats, scores, standings, and blogs from NCAA Football columnists

Some high points:

- "Is a smart route-runner who does an excellent job of disguising the route, so he can often turn the cornerback around and get separation. Does a good job of extending his route to get open when the quarterback is flushed from the pocket."

- "Has excellent hands. Looks natural catching passes outside his body's frame. Does not peek at the defense when he comes across the middle. Shows the ability to catch the high pass in traffic and will hold onto the ball after taking a hard hit after the catch."

- "Makes big plays with the ball in his hands. Does an excellent job of getting started upfield quickly after the catch. Gets to full speed fast and has better than expected speed to outrun players with angles on him. Is a competitive runner who is able to thwart arm tackles and gain yards after contact."

Seems fairly accurate based on what I've seen. Love his hands. A WR who can't catch the ball is like a defensive player who can't tackle.

 

[mayoclinic]

My worst fears have now been realized ... All the players I have zeroed in on are the same ones that are rising up the draft boards.

Question - is there a player ranked above #23 that BB will trade up for?

I see it falling out this way based upon NFP new rankings:

#23 Conner Barwin
#32 Trade #34 + #89 Darius Butler CB UConn
#47 Lawrence Sidbury LB/DE Richmond
#58 Eric Wood OC Louisville
#97 (C) Mike Wallace WR Mississippi

I agree with you about all my favorite players moving up draft boards. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

The only players above 23 I see moving up for are likely top 10 picks - Aaron Curry, BJ Raji, Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, and Michael Crabtree.

#34 + 89 should get you much higher than #32 - somewhere around #26 according to the trade value charts. #47 + 89 should get you to around #33 or so.

I personally think Sidbury would be a huge reach at #47 (understanding that NFP rates him at #51, I just don't see him justifying that high a pick), otherwise your picks are sound, though I prefer a safety to a CB. I love the Mike Wallace pick.

Combining your draft with these ideas I come up with:

#23 - William Beatty OT - we take the potential franchise LOT over the OLB
#26 - Connor Barwin OLB (trading #34 and #89) - if we don't believe Barwin will last till #34 then we have the ammo to trade up for him
#47 - Louis Delmas S - lasts to #47 because he isn't a physical freak, but with a bit more muscle he morphs into Troy Polamalu II
#58 - Eric Wood OG/C - great interior lineman; would consider SILB here as well
#97 - Mike Wallace WR - my favorite day 2 WR in the draft, a speed burner who can actually catch the ball as well as stretch the field

I would be quite happy with that. The only other possible change I would consider (with that draft order) would be drafting Larry English at #58 instead of Eric Wood and move him inside to SILB if the FO thought that would work, but I like both players.

 

[mgteich]

The open question is whether the #5 or #6 OT picked in this draft is a likely franchise LT.

As much as we dislike the possibility, Nicks is a fine value pick at #23 and meets a need. Also, the team in not harmed terribly if he takes some time to develop.

We can trade up if we need to using 89, but we definitely have a chance to get two top linebackers and a top safety by 58 (or perhaps by 47) and still have a couple of picks for an OL upgrade 99 and 120. We could have four picks in the top 50 if traded 89 and 58 and moved up.

A question for me is whether we can resist trading up from 34 into the first to get a better player and a 5-year contract.

A GOOD DAY'S WORK
WR
OLB
ILB
S
OG
OT
and a long snapper in the six

Probably not - I think I would go for the potential franchise left tackle - but Nicks is the one WR who I really like. In some ways, even more than Crabtree, as he has experience in a more pro-style offense. There is a definite need at WR.

I hate drafting WRs. I am suspicious of them, and think they have a high bust factor. I dislike even thinking about drafting a WR in round 1. But Nicks looks like the real thing to me, so I would at least give him some consideration.

 

[mayoclinic]

The open question is whether the #5 or #6 OT picked in this draft is a likely franchise LT.

As much as we dislike the possibility, Nicks is a fine value pick at #23 and meets a need. Also, the team in not harmed terribly if he takes some time to develop.

We can trade up if we need to using 89, but we definitely have a chance to get two top linebackers and a top safety by 58 (or perhaps by 47) and still have a couple of picks for an OL upgrade 99 and 120. We could have four picks in the top 50 if traded 89 and 58 and moved up.

A question for me is whether we can resist trading up from 34 into the first to get a better player and a 5-year contract.

A GOOD DAY'S WORK
WR
OLB
ILB
S
OG
OT
and a long snapper in the six

Good thoughts. For me, the more I think about it the more I feel that Nicks is the only WR who interests me on day 1. He just looks like a pro flanker when I watch him. Robiskie and Iglesias have a nice game but a very limited ceiling - they will probably never be more than #2 WRs. Britt is an intriguing physical specimen, but looks much less smooth to me than Nicks and I think is a bigger risk. Harvin is great in the open field, but is small and I'm not sure if he has the route running ability. As I've previously stated, I don't like Maclin and Heyward-Bey. Crabtree will be gone.

I very much like Mike Wallace on the 2nd day and think there are several other interesting prospects, so if WR doesn't fall our way in the draft on the first 2 rounds I am fine with waiting. But I wouldn't be unhappy with Nicks, even in the 1st round. Something like Nicks-Barwin-Delmas-Sintim (with Sintim falling to #58 based on his lack of athleticism, or one of the other SILB candidates) would be quite nice in the first day, with Trevor Canfield and Mike Wallace in the 3rd round.

We don't have to come out of the draft with an OT at all, as BOR has pointed out. Personally I would take Beatty over Nicks if the FO felt he really was a potential franchise LT, but as you point out it's not entirely clear. So I would continue to give Nicks some serious thought