Are we out of the Playoffs if we lose the next two games?

upstater1 · Dec 17, 2013

Dolphins at Bills in this weather is not an easy game. Not at all.

In fact, I am expcting a Bills victory this weekend because I don't think the Phins are going to be able to run on them, and Buffalo has been getting windy/snowy conditions in the southtowns (where the stadium is). If you don't know what Lake Effect is, you can't really understand it, but as I was driving back from dropping off my kids to school in the city yesterday, I was on a hill looking to the south, and I saw a huge wall of snow moving fast eastward. Where I was and in the city it was totally sunny, not a cloud in the sky. And, in fact, I could easily see over the ceiling of snow and clear sunny skies above it. It's very difficult to explain but imagine a clear sunny day and then a low fuzzy fuzzy bunny comes brushing over the landscape.

It's been like this for over a week now and the forecast will not change. 15 degrees, 20 mph, below 0 wind chill, snow.

Good luck Miami, you're going to need it.

Observer · Dec 17, 2013

Rob0729 said:
If the Pats lose three in a row and get in, it isn't promising for them to do much of anything in the playoffs. If they can't beat Buffalo at home, then they have no right to be in the playoffs

No right to be in the playoffs? The teams with the best record makes the playoffs. I don't care if they lose every single game, if they make the playoffs they have every right to be there. Come on man!

Brady_to_Moss · Dec 17, 2013

If we lose to the Bills at home, then we should donate our playoff spot to the Bills,it would be downright embarrassing! having said that, if we lose to the Ravens then our season will be on life support anyway. Can you believe we still haven't clinch the AFC East

?

Palm Beach Pats Fan · Dec 17, 2013

patsfaninpa said:
If we did, actually a decent chance of happening now. Baltimore wins their division if they beat us and Cincy. Both 10-6. Balt with the sweep head to head. Miami would win our division if they win out because of better div. record. Miamia is at Buffalo this week and hosts the Jesters to close the season. Certainly, two winnable games. KC has a better record for top wild-card. A Cincy win over Minny at home gives them 10 wins. We'd tie them for 2nd wild-card but they beat us head to head.

I think we're going to lose at Baltimore this week and beat Buffalo to win the division though.

Just thinking this through, even from a pessimist's perspective.

odds we lose to Baltimore: 0.75
odds we lose to Buffalo: 0.25
odds BAL beats Cincy: 0.50
odds Cincy beats Minny: 0.60
odds Miami beats Buffalo on the road: 0.60
odds Miami beats the Jets at home: 0.90

overall odds we don't make it = 0.75 X 0.25 X 0.50 X 0.60 X 0.60 X 0.90

=0.030

3% chance, and I think that is being a little pessimistic on certain scenarios

odds we don't make it, even if we lose the next two: 16%
0.50 X 0.60 X 0.60 X 0.90 = 0.162; 16%

Observer · Dec 17, 2013

libra957 said:
If we lose to the Bills at home, then we should donate our playoff spot to the Bills,it would be downright embarrassing! having said that, if we lose to the Ravens then our season will be on life support anyway. Can you believe we still haven't clinch the AFC East?

What's more embarrassing? Losing to the bills or not even making playoffs?

Brady_to_Moss · Dec 17, 2013

Observer said:
What's more embarrassing? Losing to the bills or not even making playoffs?

A lost to the bills probably means an early playoff exit if we happen to get in,which to me is the same thing.

jmt57 · Dec 17, 2013

Once again, consider all of the things that have to happen for the Patriots to miss the playoffs; call it Scenario A

1. Patriots lose to Baltimore, PLUS
2. Patriots lose to Buffalo, PLUS
3. Miami wins at Buffalo, PLUS
4. Miami beats the Jets, PLUS
5. Ravens win at Cincinnati, PLUS
6. Bengals beat Minnesota

Each and every one of those six outcomes must fall that way for New England to miss the post season. If just a single one of those six events does not happen, then the Patriots make the playoffs.

Now consider another set of circumstances, Scenario B:

1. Patriots win at Baltimore, OR
2. Patriots beat Buffalo at home, OR
3. Miami loses at Buffalo, OR
4. Miami loses to the Jets, OR
5. Ravens lose at Cincinnati, OR
6. Vikings beat Cincinnati

If just one - not all, just one - of those six outcomes happens, then the Patriots are in the playoffs.

Scenario A has "a decent chance of that happening now"? Really?

A "decent chance" by definition implies that there is good chance of it happening, that it is at least 50-50 if not more likely to occur than not occur.

If there is a "decent chance" of the Patriots missing the playoffs, then what does one call the team's chances of winning the division, a near lock? For that to happen all that has to happen is any one of the following; call it Scenario C:

1. Patriots win or tie at Baltimore, OR
2. Patriots win or tie at home vs Buffalo, OR
3. Miami loses at Buffalo, OR
4. Miami loses to the Jets

Which scenario is most plausible and is more likely to happen, and which is the least likely? Obviously scenario A - missing the playoffs - is the least likely.

Brady6 · Dec 17, 2013

SVN said:
2002 , i think 2005 or 2006 also .Cant remember.

I looked you're right; the last time we lost 3 straight or more was 2002 – we lost these 3 straight, had our bye and then lost our 4th in a row.

4 Sun 29-Sep boxscore L San Diego Chargers 14 21
5 Sun 6-Oct boxscore L Miami Dolphins 13 26
6 Sun 13-Oct boxscore L Green Bay Packers 10 28
8 Sun 27-Oct boxscore L Denver Broncos 16 24

kennyb · Dec 17, 2013

jmt57 said:
Once again, consider all of the things that have to happen for the Patriots to miss the playoffs; call it Scenario A

1. Patriots lose to Baltimore, PLUS
2. Patriots lose to Buffalo, PLUS
3. Miami wins at Buffalo, PLUS
4. Miami beats the Jets, PLUS
5. Ravens win at Cincinnati, PLUS
6. Bengals beat Minnesota

Each and every one of those six outcomes must fall that way for New England to miss the post season. If just a single one of those six events does not happen, then the Patriots make the playoffs.

Now consider another set of circumstances, Scenario B:

1. Patriots win at Baltimore, OR
2. Patriots beat Buffalo at home, OR
3. Miami loses at Buffalo, OR
4. Miami loses to the Jets, OR
5. Ravens lose at Cincinnati, OR
6. Vikings beat Cincinnati

If just one - not all, just one - of those six outcomes happens, then the Patriots are in the playoffs.

Scenario A has "a decent chance of that happening now"? Really?

A "decent chance" by definition implies that there is good chance of it happening, that it is at least 50-50 if not more likely to occur than not occur.

If there is a "decent chance" of the Patriots missing the playoffs, then what does one call the team's chances of winning the division, a near lock? For that to happen all that has to happen is any one of the following; call it Scenario C:

1. Patriots win or tie at Baltimore, OR
2. Patriots win or tie at home vs Buffalo, OR
3. Miami loses at Buffalo, OR
4. Miami loses to the Jets

Which scenario is most plausible and is more likely to happen, and which is the least likely? Obviously scenario A - missing the playoffs - is the least likely.

It's less likely, doesn't mean it isn't a "decent chance". Decent i'd arbitrarily describe as 10% or so. Not 50%+ which you have, which would be "probably". Obviously it's way under 50%.

Absurdly Metro · Dec 17, 2013

Brady6 said:
Have we ever lost 3 straight games in the Brady/Belichick era?

I read the other day that the Patrs haven't lost three consecutive games in over a decade! Not likely to happen.

I like our chances in a wide open AFC this year. Especially if Thompkins and Dobson are back healthy for the playoff run. Plus it is a cold weather, outdoor Superbowl. If we can get hot in the playoffs anything is possible.

Palm Beach Pats Fan · Dec 17, 2013

kennyb said:
It's less likely, doesn't mean it isn't a "decent chance". Decent i'd arbitrarily describe as 10% or so.

Look up like 5 posts from yours.

It's at most about a 3% chance (and that projection was based on being very pessimistic). People have cited odds makers who do this for a living, and they are putting it at more like 1%.

If the 6 necessary outcomes were all coin flips, the odds would be (0.5)^6 = 1.6%

Nobody would say there's a 10% chance, logically, and if you do, I'd like to see you break it down with individual odds for the 6 things that must go one and only one way.

So by your own 10% definition of "decent chance", there is indeed NO decent chance.

kennyb · Dec 17, 2013

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:
Look up like 5 posts from yours.

It's at most about a 3% chance (and that projection was based on being very pessimistic). People have cited odds makers who do this for a living, and they are putting it at more like 1%.

If the 6 necessary outcomes were all coin flips, the odds would be (0.5)^6 = 1.6%

Nobody would say there's a 10% chance, logically, and if you do, I'd like to see you break it down with individual odds for the 6 things that must go one and only one way.

So by your own 10% definition of "decent chance", there is indeed NO decent chance.

I didn't say it was a decent chance, just that "decent chance" needn't mean 50%.

But I also wouldn't be surprised if it happened. Some teams are just cursed at times.

Ivan · Dec 17, 2013

kennyb said:
I didn't say it was a decent chance, just that "decent chance" needn't mean 50%.

But I also wouldn't be surprised if it happened. Some teams are just cursed at times.

Kind of hard to consider a team that has been winning by huge comebacks and late heroics as "cursed."

kennyb · Dec 17, 2013

Ivan said:
Kind of hard to consider a team that has been winning by huge comebacks and late heroics as "cursed."

well now it looks like solder will be out for a while, possibly IR. I'd say that's cursed.

obgod3 · Dec 17, 2013

Read all of this, ok so my take is

Pats go 1-1 rest of the season, cant see Buff winning in NE
Miami goes 1-1, I think buffalo is a tough one for them
Ravens go 2 - 0, I like them against Cincy and NE
KC goes 2-0
Denver goes 2 -0, Texans make me wonder, but I agree they lost their will
Cincy goes 1-1, I like the Ravens in that one but if Cincy goes 2 - 0 then the Pats are #3
Indy goes 1-1, I dont like them against KC

That I believe means the Pats get #2. If the Pats go 1-1 Miami cant get the division.

FYI the ESPN playoff calculator is awesome. 2013 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN

PatsFanSince74 · Dec 17, 2013

If the Pats lose to Baltimore and then can't beat Buffalo at Home when the Division title is on the line and a loss would mean ending the season 0--3, then I think there would be a lot of folks in the Patriots locker room who would agree with me that I don't think they would deserve to be in the Playoffs.

But, that will not happen.

They will be in the Playoffs with a 12--4 or 11--5 Record and ready to start the "New Season." I can still see them winning the SB. It's time to be calm, take the long view and have a little faith.

nabwong · Dec 18, 2013

This has got to be one of the worst seasons to be a jets fan. If the afce race goes to the last day, the pats would go thru if the jets beat Miami. If the pats lose, the jets could stop the pats from going to the playoffs but they'd have to let Miami win and see Miami celebrate in front of them after a division lost. Wahahahahahahaha.

Brady_to_Moss · Dec 18, 2013

PatsFanSince74 said:
If the Pats lose to Baltimore and then can't beat Buffalo at Home when the Division title is on the line and a loss would mean ending the season 0--3, then I think there would be a lot of folks in the Patriots locker room who would agree with me that I don't think they would deserve to be in the Playoffs.

If that happened...they would not deserve it. But they will beat Buff.

Cincy plays Balt last game of year...could mean #2 or 3 seed..

PYPER · Dec 18, 2013

Husse said:
Even if they lose both remaining games they have a good shot at a wildcard spot.

Think I saw somewhere that we have a 99.4 % chance to reach the playoffs.

I'm sure I'm late to the party here and this has probably been stated by others (haven't read full thread) but the comment above is not true. If we lose both games, odds are that we'll miss the playoffs.

Miami has two very winnable games and if we both finish 10-6, they'll win the tie-breaker (better division record).

If we finish 10-6, it'll be the Baltimore/Cincy game that decides our fate. If Baltimore wins, we're toast. The Ravens would win the AFC North and Cincy would get the WC over us (assuming Cincy beats Minnesota this week).

Having said all that, if we're not good enough to win any of our last three games, we don't deserve to be a playoff team and would likely be one and done even if we made it.

This game against Baltimore will tell us a lot of our team. If we can beat them in Baltimore, then just maybe, we can still be a threat in the AFC. However, if we get crushed like I'm expecting, then our season really did go down the drain with Gronkowski's injury.

PYPER · Dec 18, 2013

SVN said:
2002 , i think 2005 or 2006 also .Cant remember.

Just 2002. We lost four straight that year after opening the season 3-0.

That's the only 3(+) game losing streak in Brady's career.

Are we out of the Playoffs if we lose the next two games?

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