I get your point but comparing AH to Richard Jewell is like comparing Apples to Moonrocks. Jewell was targeted because of a theory that dissolved when there was no evidence to back it up. As outlined at his arraignment there is evidence against AH and there is likely much more that will come out in the subsequent indictment and trial.
Maybe. Maybe not. Murder cases tend to get weaker over time, not better. Often as a prosecutor, your story never gets better than when you feel you have enough to charge. Sometimes, more evidence comes out after an arrest and the case gets stronger, but not always. And when you're making a proffer to argue bail where all you have to do is stand at a podium and say stuff the other side has never heard before, you get to rely on pretty much anything -- including hearsay or other stuff that's not reliable enough to be admissible in court at an actual trial. The defense has not yet had its turn. You've heard one side of a story that may have two sides. If what the prosecutor referred to yesterday is provable, and they really can put him at the scene with physical evidence, his options on a defense are indeed narrow. But the difference between getting bail rejected and proving a murder is significant.
There are lots of nuances, but essentially there are two basic types of defenses to a crime like this. The first is, I wasn't there, it wasn't me, I didn't do it. The second is, I was there and did some of the stuff you claim, but I'm not legally responsible or at most I'm only responsible for a lesser charge.
As I read the tenor of this board, the assumption after yesterday is that Hernandez, at best, can only avail himself of the second category. And most of you are prepared to say, if that's true, I don't really care what the story is, screw him. I get that. I pretty much agree with it. But I've seen and heard of plenty of cases that sounded really strong and devastating but then disintegrated or at least substantially changed.
Part of the problem is that the defense was flat-footed yesterday, as it almost always is on day 1. Their guy got arrested and then they had about 5 minutes with him in the lock up to try to figure out what to do. You'll see that the defense has appealed the bail determination and has a second hearing today. I doubt they seriously think they will get it overturned. But what this seems to signal is that now they have had 24 hours to look at the arrest warrant affidavit and digest what happened yesterday, and they feel like they have something to say. Today will be about them starting to put the other side out there in the public. Even if they don't get bail, today is the day you'll start to hear the alternative narrative.
There's a lot of stuff coming out now -- like connecting him to every unsolved homicide in a 100 mile radius and having former players like Matt Light say things that don't even make sense. And in a twitter/facebook world everyone wants information right now. But this thing is just going to have to play out.
I'm not saying he's a good guy. I'm not saying he didn't do it. I'm not even saying I believe there's a realistic chance the story will change significantly. I'm just saying that to date the story is presented in a way where all inferences go away from the guy, and none us can know right now what we don't know.
