Torn between FA WRs Mike Wallace and Brandon Lloyd...

DonBlackmon55 · Feb 21, 2012

MaineMan said:
Okay, let's review - with some context. Of the 37 guys acquired by the Pats during the BB Era who have been "designated" as WR on the roster, only 9 were drafted (less than one in five). The nine includes a 5th-rounder (Slater) and a 7th rounder (Edelman) who didn't actually play WR in college (IOW, they weren't "young WRs" to begin with). Slater rarely even played on offense at UCLA.

The list, by draft round order, is as follows:

2nd:
Branch - 2002 - WINNER

Chad Jackson - 2006 - He certainly had the pedigree coming in (success under Urban Meyer at Florida; great Combine). He did okay [13/152, 3 TDs, 11.7 ypc] while missing all of camp and several games during the season with a couple different injury issues. AFAIK, he hadn't been "injury prone" in college, so this wasn't really predictable. And then he tore his ACL in the 2006 AFC-CG. When he came off PUP in 2007, he had nothing. There's no way to tell whether he'd have been good or not. INCOMPLETE.

Bethel Johnson - 2006 - BUST

3rd:
Brandon Tate - 2009 - After a "redshirt season", he turned in the second best KR season in the BB Era and 4th best in Pats history. He also did well catching passes on the deep post [24/432, 3 TDs, 18.0 ypc, 52.2% CR] - the seventh best first-season yardage of the 37 (just 57 yards short of Deion's first season, and he produced one more TD than Deion did). Unfortunately, it appears that the deep post was pretty much the only route Tate could run with consistent effectiveness. Not a WINNER, but not really a BUST. Call it a 1/2 WINNER.

Taylor Price - 2010 - BUST.

That's the "high" picks. For the rest:

5th:
PK SAM (6'3"/210) - 2004 - Truly a "flyer" pick on a big guy who'd only started to have success at WR as a Senior. 1/2 BUST (if a 5th-round flyer can actually BE a "BUST")

7th:
David Givens - WINNER

So, 7 selections of college WRs over 11 years:

2.5 WINNERS (Tate was a decent contributor during his short stay)
2.5 BUSTS
1 Injury casualty.

You may still think that sucks, but I'd guess that if you took any seven consecutive WR selections by every team, you'd rarely find a significantly superior success rate.

1. How exactly was Tate a decent contributor for a 3rd round "flyer" ?
2. Chad Jackson is incomplete ? Wow, keep grasping for straws. A bust is a bust. He showed nothin before the injury. Zip
3. PK Sam - yes can be said was a flyer

Julian Edelman and Matt Slater were drafted as late round WR's, though neither of them are WR position players, mostly special teams or in case of Edelman also DB.

Simply put Pats do not know how to spot WR talent in the draft ot for that matter develop WR's

WR's like Jennings, Boldin, Wallace, Bernard Berrian, Bureleson were easily available for them in the draft, WR's who had produced well in college but were passed for smurfs or injury prone ones

Boomer B · Feb 22, 2012

MaineMan said:
Okay, let's review - with some context. Of the 37 guys acquired by the Pats during the BB Era who have been "designated" as WR on the roster, only 9 were drafted (less than one in five). The nine includes a 5th-rounder (Slater) and a 7th rounder (Edelman) who didn't actually play WR in college (IOW, they weren't "young WRs" to begin with). Slater rarely even played on offense at UCLA.

The list, by draft round order, is as follows:

2nd:
Branch - 2002 - WINNER

Chad Jackson - 2006 - He certainly had the pedigree coming in (success under Urban Meyer at Florida; great Combine). He did okay [13/152, 3 TDs, 11.7 ypc] while missing all of camp and several games during the season with a couple different injury issues. AFAIK, he hadn't been "injury prone" in college, so this wasn't really predictable. And then he tore his ACL in the 2006 AFC-CG. When he came off PUP in 2007, he had nothing. There's no way to tell whether he'd have been good or not. INCOMPLETE.

Bethel Johnson - 2006 - BUST

3rd:
Brandon Tate - 2009 - After a "redshirt season", he turned in the second best KR season in the BB Era and 4th best in Pats history. He also did well catching passes on the deep post [24/432, 3 TDs, 18.0 ypc, 52.2% CR] - the seventh best first-season yardage of the 37 (just 57 yards short of Deion's first season, and he produced one more TD than Deion did). Unfortunately, it appears that the deep post was pretty much the only route Tate could run with consistent effectiveness. Not a WINNER, but not really a BUST. Call it a 1/2 WINNER.

Taylor Price - 2010 - BUST.

That's the "high" picks. For the rest:

5th:
PK SAM (6'3"/210) - 2004 - Truly a "flyer" pick on a big guy who'd only started to have success at WR as a Senior. 1/2 BUST (if a 5th-round flyer can actually BE a "BUST")

7th:
David Givens - WINNER

So, 7 selections of college WRs over 11 years:

2.5 WINNERS (Tate was a decent contributor during his short stay)
2.5 BUSTS
1 Injury casualty.

You may still think that sucks, but I'd guess that if you took any seven consecutive WR selections by every team, you'd rarely find a significantly superior success rate.

Wow. How's the kool aid taste? the Pats haven't drafted a decent receiver in a decade.

patsfan13 · Feb 22, 2012

BPF said:
Sure doesn't look like a turd:

Most 25-yard pass plays in last 2 seasons (by pass-catchers)
Mike Wallace (Steelers) -- 29
DeSean Jackson (Eagles) -- 26
Brandon Lloyd (Broncos/Rams) -- 26
Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) -- 24

'Next Level' stat on big plays - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Great get, Lloyd looks like as good a deep threat as anyone in the league, especially given who his QB's have been

DonBlackmon55 · Feb 22, 2012

patsfan13 said:
Great get, Lloyd looks like as good a deep threat as anyone in the league, especially given who his QB's have been

More importantly he can hang onto the balls thrown to him as a deep threat. Ranked #8 in 2010 with only 4.94% drops. 77 catches and 4 drops

By comparison Welker in 2010 was 13% in drops(ranked in bottom 15 of top 55 WR's). 93 catches and 14 drops

Drop Percentage: Wide Receivers | ProFootballFocus.com

"Elsewhere in the Top 10, you have a couple more guys who play mainly in the slot (Mike Thomas and Eddie Royal), and perhaps more surprisingly, one of the leagues’ best deep threats in 2010, Brandon Lloyd. The catches tend to be a bit harder the further downfield you go, but Lloyd displayed a previously unseen consistency to make plays on balls that you didn’t think he had any right to."

The Beast Larry Fitzgerald in 2010, 90 catches, and only 3 drops !!! Unreal !

patsfan13 · Feb 22, 2012

DonBlackmon55 said:
More importantly he can hang onto the balls thrown to him as a deep threat. Ranked #8 in 2010 with only 4.94% drops. 77 catches and 4 drops

By comparison Welker in 2010 was 13% in drops(ranked in bottom 15 of top 55 WR's). 93 catches and 14 drops

Drop Percentage: Wide Receivers | ProFootballFocus.com

"Elsewhere in the Top 10, you have a couple more guys who play mainly in the slot (Mike Thomas and Eddie Royal), and perhaps more surprisingly, one of the leagues’ best deep threats in 2010, Brandon Lloyd. The catches tend to be a bit harder the further downfield you go, but Lloyd displayed a previously unseen consistency to make plays on balls that you didn’t think he had any right to."

The Beast Larry Fitzgerald in 2010, 90 catches, and only 3 drops !!! Unreal !

So if Lloyd is in the same conversation w L Fitzgerald for both big plays and great hands,,,,,,and he is a know quantity it is a no brainer to target him over ANY other WR in this FA class.

BTW Fitzgerald definitely has the football IQ to play in this system, but he isn't and won't be available.

DonBlackmon55 · Feb 22, 2012

patsfan13 said:
So if Lloyd is in the same conversation w L Fitzgerald for both big plays and great hands,,,,,,and he is a know quantity it is a no brainer to target him over ANY other WR in this FA class.

BTW Fitzgerald definitely has the football IQ to play in this system, but he isn't and won't be available.

Question is whether that was his peak in 2010, and one year statistical anomaly, similar to Brady in 2010 when he had 36 TD's and only 4ints in reg season, 3x lower ints than his typical avg year.

After his 77catch, 1448 yard yr in 2010, Lloyd played 4 games with the Donkey's in 2011 with 19 catches for 283...over 16 games that put him again at 76catches, 1132 yards.
The trade to Rams and he still racked up total of 70 catches for 966 yards for 2011.

It would be interesting to see his drop rate in 2011, as well completion rate for passes 20+ yards since thats what the Pats need is someone who stretches the field to open up the underneath stuff.

SeymourTrophies · Feb 22, 2012

I think the argument for Tate being incomplete or a half bust, or whatever, is based on the fact he has looked way better than all of the other busts. Even though, as a wideout, he was marginal. He did keep defenses honest every once in a blue moon with his speed, but I think Welker had the same amount, if not more, deep plays this year than he did in 2010.

Very good, Don. Two posts in a row without complaining about Ochocinco. :deadhorse:

Mosi Moose · Feb 22, 2012

FWIW, Mike and Mike were just discussing WR free agents and Greenberg, unsolicited, said "Lloyd is going to New England and he's going to be awesome there." Take with a grain of salt, but wanted to pass along since it was said in a manner of such certainty.

Uncle Rico · Feb 22, 2012

Mosi Moose said:
FWIW, Mike and Mike were just discussing WR free agents and Greenberg, unsolicited, said "Lloyd is going to New England and he's going to be awesome there." Take with a grain of salt, but wanted to pass along since it was said in a manner of such certainty.

Sounds to me like a miserable Jets fan spouting off. Hope it's true, but I can't imagine he'd have any insight.

I'm liking where Lloyd is at: Overcome some challenges, hitting some productive years for a WR age-wise, flourishing under Josh McD is HUGE. He's learned how to play in the NFL.

I have some concern over Wallace after reading this piece from Reiss:

Ed Bouchette, who covers the team for the Post-Gazette, blogs an informative piece on Wallace. Bouchette dissects how Wallace's free-agent scenario is likely to unfold -- the Steelers tendering him at the first-round level as a restricted free agent -- and then sums up his NFL career this way: "His first three seasons have been rocket-like, with him climbing higher and higher. However, in the middle of what seemed to be his best and record-setting season [in 2011], Wallace fizzled. ... Here's the question the Steelers and other prospective suitors in free agency must determine: Did defenses figure out Mike Wallace finally as the one-trick pony that Mike Tomlin long declared he was?"

I checked Wallace's stats and he did start out insanely fast last year. But after opening with three straight 100-yard games, he only had one the rest of the season.

Overall, I just feel like with where the Patriots and Brady are, Lloyd represents the surest bet to contribute right away, and that's important.

Leemo · Feb 22, 2012

Mosi Moose said:
FWIW, Mike and Mike were just discussing WR free agents and Greenberg, unsolicited, said "Lloyd is going to New England and he's going to be awesome there." Take with a grain of salt, but wanted to pass along since it was said in a manner of such certainty.

Hopefully thats the case....

Can anyone estimate the total cost of signing welker, lloyd AND reggie wayne?

PatsFan2 · Feb 22, 2012

Uncle Rico said:
Sounds to me like a miserable Jets fan spouting off. Hope it's true, but I can't imagine he'd have any insight.

I'm liking where Lloyd is at: Overcome some challenges, hitting some productive years for a WR age-wise, flourishing under Josh McD is HUGE. He's learned how to play in the NFL.

I have some concern over Wallace after reading this piece from Reiss:

I checked Wallace's stats and he did start out insanely fast last year. But after opening with three straight 100-yard games, he only had one the rest of the season.

Overall, I just feel like with where the Patriots and Brady are, Lloyd represents the surest bet to contribute right away, and that's important.

I am sure he was Doubled more than half the time and also he opened things up for the other Offensive players. The WR on the opposite side of him Antonio Brown had over 1100 yds receiving.Wallace would work wonders in our Offense with his exellent Deep Speed and hands.

Ice Cold Bruschi · Feb 22, 2012

BB will never give up a 1st rounder for him

Ice Cold Bruschi · Feb 22, 2012

Loyd has only ever had one good season, and he's 30 years old. He can't be the best option out there.

Deus Irae · Feb 22, 2012

Ice Cold Bruschi said:
Loyd has only ever had one good season, and he's 30 years old. He can't be the best option out there.

Depends on your requirements for "good", I guess. I'd say that his last 2 years have both been very good, particularly given the circumstances of the past season for him.

MoLewisrocks · Feb 22, 2012

Ice Cold Bruschi said:
Loyd has only ever had one good season, and he's 30 years old. He can't be the best option out there.

He's had two good seasons and the best thing about them was they were in the same system we run being run by the same guy who will run it here this year. Given the difficulty all manner of WR's have in picking up this system, that clearly makes him the best option - and he's a guy who can run all the routes, and that versatility is something Bill generally places a premium on. The harder part will be securing him at an affordable price, because Welker is due for a substantial increase. However, they paid $13M or so to field Welker and Moss back in 2008-09, with Brady's cap hits already in the mid teens, and about that in 2007 to field Stallworth, Welker and Moss, so I think they can handle it in 2012.

PatsFan2 · Feb 22, 2012

Ice Cold Bruschi said:
BB will never give up a 1st rounder for him

I would rather BB give up one of our First Rounders for Mike Wallace instead of Trading out the First Round.:snob:

VrabelJr · Feb 22, 2012

Not sure if this has been mentioned in here yet but the other side of getting Wallace also includes not having Welker back, financially speaking. There's a few Wallace type WRs in the league, but there is only one Welker.

Deus Irae · Feb 22, 2012

VrabelJr said:
Not sure if this has been mentioned in here yet but the other side of getting Wallace also includes not having Welker back, financially speaking. There's a few Wallace type WRs in the league, but there is only one Welker.

The Patriots have the ability to free up something like $30+ million if they choose. They could probably keep both receivers, re-sign everyone they want, sign the draftees and still bring in a safety.

ivanvamp · Feb 22, 2012

Wallace vs. Lloyd - their best seasons:

Wallace (2010): 100 targets, 60 rec, 60.0 rec% (rec/tar), 1257 yds, 21.0 ypc, 10 td, 364 yac, 28.9 yac% (yac/yds)
Lloyd (2010): 132 targets, 77 rec, 58.3 rec% (rec/tar), 1448 yds, 18.8 ypc, 11 td, 198 yac, 13.7 yac% (yac/yds)

Seems like Lloyd is actually the better deep threat. If you remove yac from the equations, and just went with yardage gained upon the point of reception, here's what you have:

Wallace: 60 rec, 893 yds, 14.9 ypc
Lloyd: 77 rec, 1250 yds, 16.2 ypc

So Lloyd was catching the ball further downfield, on average, than Wallace was. It's not a huge difference, but anyone suggesting that Wallace is the better deep threat...well, when each guy has been at his best, Lloyd, with a worse QB throwing to him, put up better deep numbers.

Maybe it means that Wallace is more versatile, though, than Lloyd. Maybe he does a better job at the midrange routes. Who knows. Both are good receivers that would help the Patriots. Lloyd, I'm sure, would cost a lot less. Sign me up for Lloyd + Welker instead of Wallace + something less than Welker.

BPF · Feb 22, 2012

robbomango said:
Researching his career I found a screwed up SF situation that had nothing to do with him, time spent in Joe Gibbs dog house a strict old school disciplinarian and an injury before finding success in Chicago, Denver and St Luis.

looks like he's always been the player we've seen over the past 2 years, suffering a true situational nightmare early on.

I don't think Lloyd was bad as a player in SF. As a rookie in 2003 w/SF Lloyd was a good ST player, he had a blocked punt. He only finished with 14 rec for 212 yds & 2 TDs that yr but he wasn't considered a bust being a 4th Rd pick. In 2004, he started 13 games & finished the season with 43 rec for 565 yds & 6 TDs -- not a bad 2nd season. During the 2005 season he started 16 games & had career-highs & team-highs in rec w/48 & rec yds w/733 & 5 TDs.
*2003 was TO's final season in SF. Also the 49ers fired Dennis Erickson and hired Mike Nolan in 2004. 2004 was Alex Smith's rookie season, he finished with 1 TD and 11 INTs.

After being traded to Wash for 3rd & 4th Rd picks this is where he gets a bad rap. He got into Gibbs dog house as you say and could never escape.

"Situational nightmare early on" is perfect way to put it.

Trying to revive his career he signed a 1-yr deal with the Bears to reunite with Ron Turner his coach from college. He had a successful start with the Bears, he was a favorite target of Kyle Orton. He had 15 rec in his first 4 games and was then injured and missed several weeks. He didn't really get back to the swing of the offense till the last game of the season.

With Orton being traded to Denver for Cutler & being that Lloyd was one of Orton's favorite targets during the 2008 season w/Chi, he signed with Den. In his 1st yr in Den things started off slow but in his 2nd yr in 2010 that's when his career took off when he led the league with 1,448 yds.

So there's been 5 teams but he's not a "turd" some would have you think. He had a good start, especially considering the circumstances while he struggled after that then he experienced a career revival over the past 2 yrs.

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