Torn between FA WRs Mike Wallace and Brandon Lloyd...

[zipster9]

I'm not really torn at all. Lloyd makes more sense to me. Wallace is definitely younger, and has better straight line speed, but Lloyd knows the system and plays fast as well-- great seperation at the top of his route.

It would be exciting to get a player like Wallace, and I wouldn't be surprised to see BB go after him...They gameplanned and respected his speed so much that it left the underneath almost completely wide open.

We could probably get Lloyd for 12-15 million over three years, substantially less than Wallace, and if we're paying Welker 7 or 8 mill per (I'd like it to be 6), it wouldn't make sense to invest 14-17 million a year on two wideouts with our tight ends.

This is a very good year for young wideouts in the draft to develop slowly...even in the late rounds and UDFA's...Picking up a player like Lloyd, or Wayne would make more sense. Though I'd love a Wallace, Colston, or Vincent Jackson, if we can land Lloyd or Wayne we'll be ok with a couple rookie wideouts and Branch.

funny. everyone THINKS that Lloyd will be had for 15 over 3yrs, or less. He will be asking way more than this. Sure Wallace will probably be more, and it will cost our #1.

also, don't think for a second that the Steeler's WR playbook is simple, and that Wallace wont be able to adapt to Patriots's scheme.

Totally different schemes' than Bengals when Ocho was playing there...

 

[Nunchucks]

I don't think we can afford both Welker and Wallace. Lloyd is pretty impressive and we know he can help us win next year. Not so sure with Wallace.

We don't have that many years left, I would prefer to see a guy come in that we know can play.

 

[tricktak]

Why do I care about how a player had performed as opposed to how he's peforming now? Lloyd is older than Wallace and will be a lot less expensive. Sure, many older receivers havent worked but the young ones they drafted havent worked out either, so why is drafting better than free agency?

Lloyd is very good RIGHT NOW, and he knows the Pats system, how do we know Garcon 1) won't be locked up by the Colts and 2) will understand the Pats system?

When did I say drafting is better than free agency? I said if the patriots make a play for a receiver then they should make it for a young one because they suck at drafting receivers.

 

[Seels]

This is statement couldn't be any further from the truth, look past "The University of Denver Broncos" 2011 season and you'll see another situational problem. Lloyd avoided it like the plague.

He's 5'10 runs a 4.38 40time. shown great hands in his previous 3 seasons and worked under McDaniels system as well. His 2011 season will most likely cheapen his price.

We don't need another 5'10 slot guy that's for sure but if we did he's a great candidate imo.

Ugly blanketed statements don't offer much but If you have better knowledge I'm glad to hear it.

DVOA rank last 3 years:

2011: 74
2010: 87
2009: 42

Catch rate last three years:

38%
57%
47%

Despite being Denver's #2, he has about as many yards in his last 3 years combined as Aaron Hernandez -- our #3 -- had this year.

Advanced NFL Stats - Player Statistics

He's catching less than half the balls he's targeted for. Yes, this includes bad QB throws, but this is still terrible.

Eddie Royal sucks. He wouldn't beat out the Tiquan Underwood's of the world.

 

[tricktak]

I don't think we can afford both Welker and Wallace. Lloyd is pretty impressive and we know he can help us win next year. Not so sure with Wallace.

We don't have that many years left, I would prefer to see a guy come in that we know can play.

Pats are one of the few teams that have the cap space to get Weller and Wallace. The patriots aren't going to give Weller 6 years, I have doubts they twould even give him five. Maybe Weller takes one for the team and signs for less if the patriots have a chance to get Wallace. Weller is one of the few guys that would take a slight discount. People need to worry more about gronkowski than Welker, gronkowski has two years left on his contract and is gonna want a monster deal.

 

[robbomango]

DVOA rank last 3 years:

2011: 74
2010: 87
2009: 42

Catch rate last three years:

38%
57%
47%

Despite being Denver's #2, he has about as many yards in his last 3 years combined as Aaron Hernandez -- our #3 -- had this year.

Advanced NFL Stats - Player Statistics

He's catching less than half the balls he's targeted for. Yes, this includes bad QB throws, but this is still terrible.

Eddie Royal sucks. He wouldn't beat out the Tiquan Underwood's of the world.

I heard PFF was pretty reliable with basic stats so I subscribed earlier this year, there numbers differ. The guy's on PFWin progress said PFF was reliable as well. Maybe some one on here knows of a better source?

year trgts...rec....CT%
2008 127....91.....71.7
2009 69.....37.....53.6
2010 93.....59.....63.4

Tebow's been conservative on his passes opting to throw the ball into the ground short or out of bounds rather than risk an INT(even when there was separation), so these the low catch rate this year I find a bit meaningless. 42.9%

looked like he got good separation on his routes and performed well in the short game from the little I've seen. I don't remember his name coming up as a stain in the receiving core. He comes across as a well spoken, polite individual with diverse ability in KR and receiving. Worst receiver in the NFL? come on, thats being silly

We'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

[Joey007]

Mike Wallace. Please Bill, can we get a YOUNG and also PROVEN WR for once??!!

 

[patsfan13]

People are overrating Brandon Lloyd on this board. The guy has two good seasons after being a turd for six previous seasons and everybody is willing to go all in on him. As I said before make the play for a 26 year old receiver like mil Wallace instead of the 31 year old Brandon Lloyd. The pats need young receivers and have not shown the ability to draft any good ones. The old receiver road is getting old between joey Galloway, toddy holt and Ochoa condo. No more receivers past their prime just because they come cheap. I would rather have Pierre Garcon, who is also 26, to Brandon lloyd.

The 2 VERY GOOD seasons were playing the in O the Pats run, under our current O coordinator. It is also an offense that a lot of WR's have failed in because it requires the WR to decide at the LOS which of up to 5 patters to run and make the same read as our HOF QB.

Lloyd has proven he can do this, Wallace has not. Now that doesn't mean that Wallace can't successfully perform in the Offense, it means taking a risk with a lot of cap $$$$ and a draft pick as opposed to going with a player who has already excelled in this O to the tune of 18.3 per catch with 77 catches while playing with a mediocre QB.


T His is about helping this team not who has the most highlights on sportscenter.

 

[DonBlackmon55]

funny. everyone THINKS that Lloyd will be had for 15 over 3yrs, or less. He will be asking way more than this. Sure Wallace will probably be more, and it will cost our #1.

also, don't think for a second that the Steeler's WR playbook is simple, and that Wallace wont be able to adapt to Patriots's scheme.

Totally different schemes' than Bengals when Ocho was playing there...

Actually, Lloyd has been playing for peanuts(minus the Dan Snyder splurgefest signing bonus).

Lloyd is a system player which clear since in his 9 year career, he's had one great season, and one good season, both under McDaniels. So, would not be a shocker if he is willing to take a "discounted" contract to come to the Pats, unless ofcourse Dan Snyder forgets he already signed lloyd once before and hands him another Mega deal.

Personally, I'd rather have Pats invest the $$ in Colston, and he is a much more phyical receiver, and younger than Lloyd. There's 3 year window for Brady and Pats. Trying the stop gap filler players should be low priority. Get proven players who have produced at a high level. As is will have to start from scratch once Brady is done in 3 years.

 

[tricktak]

The 2 VERY GOOD seasons were playing the in O the Pats run, under our current O coordinator. It is also an offense that a lot of WR's have failed in because it requires the WR to decide at the LOS which of up to 5 patters to run and make the same read as our HOF QB.

Lloyd has proven he can do this, Wallace has not. Now that doesn't mean that Wallace can't successfully perform in the Offense, it means taking a risk with a lot of cap $$$$ and a draft pick as opposed to going with a player who has already excelled in this O to the tune of 18.3 per catch with 77 catches while playing with a mediocre QB.


T His is about helping this team not who has the most highlights on sportscenter.

And how did they know that Weller would fit in the system when they signed him? This fit the system stuff is another crock. You would think randy moss, who can't run routes, would be a terrible fit for the patriots but it didn't turn out that way. A lot of people use the system as an excuse but that's not the case. Ocho cinco is done just like toddy holt and joey Galloway were done, not fitting into the system was a very small part of it. You can't just keep signing receivers who may or may not fit the system.

 

[robbomango]

Researching his career I found a screwed up SF situation that had nothing to do with him, time spent in Joe Gibbs dog house a strict old school disciplinarian and an injury before finding success in Chicago, Denver and St Luis.

looks like he's always been the player we've seen over the past 2 years, suffering a true situational nightmare early on.

 

[Elijah T.]

funny. everyone THINKS that Lloyd will be had for 15 over 3yrs, or less. He will be asking way more than this. Sure Wallace will probably be more, and it will cost our #1.

also, don't think for a second that the Steeler's WR playbook is simple, and that Wallace wont be able to adapt to Patriots's scheme.

Totally different schemes' than Bengals when Ocho was playing there...

Ok, well I'm basing my assumption on market value based on other player's salaries at the position.

Nate Burleson makes 5.0 mill per year
Santana Moss- 5.3 mill per year
Michael Crabtree 5.3 Mill per year.

I put Brandon Lloyd in this range based on his overall production and age.

Then you have..

Anquan Boldin- 7.0 million per year
Steve Smith- (Carolina) 7.3 million per year
Roddy White- 8.0 million per year

So I'm guessing that Lloyd wouldn't command much money in a strong WR market. He only made 1.3 million last year, and hasn't made more than that in one year throughout his career.

I could be wrong, but 5.0 million per season seems like market value for Brandon Lloyd.

 

[tricktak]

Don't forget the patriots signed a similar player to Wallace in donte stallworth to a six year 30 million dollar contract. If the patriots really like a player they'll pay him.

 

[DonBlackmon55]

Ok, well I'm basing my assumption on market value based on other player's salaries at the position.

Nate Burleson makes 5.0 mill per year
Santana Moss- 5.3 mill per year
Michael Crabtree 5.3 Mill per year.

I put Brandon Lloyd in this range based on his overall production and age.

Then you have..

Anquan Boldin- 7.0 million per year
Steve Smith- (Carolina) 7.3 million per year
Roddy White- 8.0 million per year
So I'm guessing that Lloyd wouldn't command much money in a strong WR market. He only made 1.3 million last year, and hasn't made more than that in one year throughout his career.

I could be wrong, but 5.0 million per season seems like market value for Brandon Lloyd.

Burleson - 391 (age 30)
S. Moss - 639 (32)
Crabtree -175 (24)

Lloyd - 311(30)

At best he is a Nate Burleson from production standpoint and age comparison. also Burleson has had the luxury of playing in Dome at Minny and Detroit(if that counts for something). Crabtree is still on his rookie deal and 6 years younger, so no comparison. S Moss was very productive but has lot of mileage

I could see a 4-5Mill/year market for Lloyd. Cut Stinko, Let go of Branch, and use the cash for Lloyd maybe the way they go. Will comedown to whether Boy Wonder can convince BB this is worth it, simply put.

Then I could see draft another WR and hope and pray he is no Bethel, C Jack, Tate, Price...

 

[DonBlackmon55]

Don't forget the patriots signed a similar player to Wallace in donte stallworth to a six year 30 million dollar contract. If the patriots really like a player they'll pay him.

LOL. And how many years did Stallworth play for the Pats ????????? It was a 1 year deal, the rest was fake years and money he was never going to see. Hell, they could have announced it as 10 year 80Million deal for all it mattered. it was a one and done contract, get your facts.

Stallworth cant even sniff Wallace's jockstrap when it comes to production. Stallworth had 1 season with over 70 catches, 1 SEASON out of 9, and 2 TOTAL seasons with over 50 catches.

 

[Sciz]

Don't forget the patriots signed a similar player to Wallace in donte stallworth to a six year 30 million dollar contract. If the patriots really like a player they'll pay him.

Which was really a 1 year, $3.6M contract with no commitment after that first year. He wasn't going to see the second year of that contract unless he played really well.

 

[patsfan13]

And how did they know that Weller would fit in the system when they signed him? This fit the system stuff is another crock. You would think randy moss, who can't run routes, would be a terrible fit for the patriots but it didn't turn out that way. A lot of people use the system as an excuse but that's not the case. Ocho cinco is done just like toddy holt and joey Galloway were done, not fitting into the system was a very small part of it. You can't just keep signing receivers who may or may not fit the system.

I am guessing that it was the types of routes he was running inside, he may also have had the rep of having a high football IQ, like R Moss for example. More likely BB called his old buddy N Saban who had just abandoned Miami for Bama and asked about Welker's football acumen.


Again based on the system in Pitts there is no way to tell if Wallace can perform in this system.

 

[MaineMan]

When did I say drafting is better than free agency? I said if the patriots make a play for a receiver then they should make it for a young one because they suck at drafting receivers.

Okay, let's review - with some context. Of the 37 guys acquired by the Pats during the BB Era who have been "designated" as WR on the roster, only 9 were drafted (less than one in five). The nine includes a 5th-rounder (Slater) and a 7th rounder (Edelman) who didn't actually play WR in college (IOW, they weren't "young WRs" to begin with). Slater rarely even played on offense at UCLA.

The list, by draft round order, is as follows:

2nd:
Branch - 2002 - WINNER

Chad Jackson - 2006 - He certainly had the pedigree coming in (success under Urban Meyer at Florida; great Combine). He did okay [13/152, 3 TDs, 11.7 ypc] while missing all of camp and several games during the season with a couple different injury issues. AFAIK, he hadn't been "injury prone" in college, so this wasn't really predictable. And then he tore his ACL in the 2006 AFC-CG. When he came off PUP in 2007, he had nothing. There's no way to tell whether he'd have been good or not. INCOMPLETE.

Bethel Johnson - 2006 - BUST


3rd:
Brandon Tate - 2009 - After a "redshirt season", he turned in the second best KR season in the BB Era and 4th best in Pats history. He also did well catching passes on the deep post [24/432, 3 TDs, 18.0 ypc, 52.2% CR] - the seventh best first-season yardage of the 37 (just 57 yards short of Deion's first season, and he produced one more TD than Deion did). Unfortunately, it appears that the deep post was pretty much the only route Tate could run with consistent effectiveness. Not a WINNER, but not really a BUST. Call it a 1/2 WINNER.

Taylor Price - 2010 - BUST.


That's the "high" picks. For the rest:

5th:
PK SAM (6'3"/210) - 2004 - Truly a "flyer" pick on a big guy who'd only started to have success at WR as a Senior. 1/2 BUST (if a 5th-round flyer can actually BE a "BUST")

7th:
David Givens - WINNER

So, 7 selections of college WRs over 11 years:

2.5 WINNERS (Tate was a decent contributor during his short stay)
2.5 BUSTS
1 Injury casualty.

You may still think that sucks, but I'd guess that if you took any seven consecutive WR selections by every team, you'd rarely find a significantly superior success rate.

 

[Deus Irae]

Okay, let's review - with some context. Of the 37 guys acquired by the Pats during the BB Era who have been "designated" as WR on the roster, only 9 were drafted (less than one in five). The nine includes a 5th-rounder (Slater) and a 7th rounder (Edelman) who didn't actually play WR in college (IOW, they weren't "young WRs" to begin with). Slater rarely even played on offense at UCLA.

The list, by draft round order, is as follows:

2nd:
Branch - 2002 - WINNER

Chad Jackson - 2006 - He certainly had the pedigree coming in (success under Urban Meyer at Florida; great Combine). He did okay [13/152, 3 TDs, 11.7 ypc] while missing all of camp and several games during the season with a couple different injury issues. AFAIK, he hadn't been "injury prone" in college, so this wasn't really predictable. And then he tore his ACL in the 2006 AFC-CG. When he came off PUP in 2007, he had nothing. There's no way to tell whether he'd have been good or not. INCOMPLETE.

Bethel Johnson - 2006 - BUST


3rd:
Brandon Tate - 2009 - After a "redshirt season", he turned in the second best KR season in the BB Era and 4th best in Pats history. He also did well catching passes on the deep post [24/432, 3 TDs, 18.0 ypc, 52.2% CR] - the seventh best first-season yardage of the 37 (just 57 yards short of Deion's first season, and he produced one more TD than Deion did). Unfortunately, it appears that the deep post was pretty much the only route Tate could run with consistent effectiveness. Not a WINNER, but not really a BUST. Call it a 1/2 WINNER.

Taylor Price - 2010 - BUST.


That's the "high" picks. For the rest:

5th:
PK SAM (6'3"/210) - 2004 - Truly a "flyer" pick on a big guy who'd only started to have success at WR as a Senior. 1/2 BUST (if a 5th-round flyer can actually BE a "BUST")

7th:
David Givens - WINNER

So, 7 selections of college WRs over 11 years:

2.5 WINNERS (Tate was a decent contributor during his short stay)
2.5 BUSTS
1 Injury casualty.

You may still think that sucks, but I'd guess that if you took any seven consecutive WR selections by every team, you'd rarely find a significantly superior success rate.

Tate's a bust pick, not half a winner. Jackson's a bust, too.

 

[roleplayer]

I respect and understand most of the counter-arguments regarding Wallace. Cost, Lloyd's familiarity w/Josh, allotting money for Welker, his decline in production during the second half of last year, ect...

So these are just my two cents...

If you are a defensive coordinator pulling a paycheck in this league, and Mike Wallace splits out wide, you are committing a safety over the top...otherwise you do not deserve to be pulling that paycheck.

In my opinion, If the New England Patriots obtain this particular player, with the way they're already able to stretch the field horizontaly, you will see an offense in 2012 that is borderline ridiculous. Better than 2007. Better than 2011. And with any development at all from Ridley/Vereen (both of whom I think can be solid players), perhaps substantially better. That would make the offense historical in context. Would you sign up for that?

Mike Wallace would do, coverage-wise, what Randy Moss did for this team: take two defenders out of almost every single play. And Randy didn't have the two TEs terrorizing the middle of the field.

Here are Belichick's and Casario's recent thoughts on Wallace:

BB - "He's a big play receiver. He's really fast. Nobody is going to catch him, so you have to be careful about how much space he gets when he catches the ball. I think he's improved a lot from when we played them last year, just as a football player, his patience and route technique. He has great speed but he also is getting better at route technique, setting up routes, using his speed, changing his pace. He's good after the catch with the ball in his hands. He breaks tackles and eludes people, does a nice job of going up and getting the ball in the deep part of the field, he's taken it away from some defensive backs. I'd say overall he improved his route running in the red area where there's less space. He still is a key guy down there. He did a lot of things well last year, doing them well this year and even better. He's made plays in just about every game. He stretches the field but he can also take a short pass and turn it into a long run, so you have to defend him from the line of scrimmage to the back of the end zone and from sideline to sideline. He's a tough guy to match up on. He's done a good job. Obviously he's worked hard and he's being well coached and he's got a good quarterback and other good receivers to complement him. He's part of their very productive offense."

Casario - "Coming out he was a big, fast receiver. His production, just in a relative base - I think he had back-to-back 30-catch years. Some of that was the offense, some of that was some other factors. But since he's been in the league, since year one up until this point, he's really improved just as an overall receiver. I think he was big and could always run. He's just become more consistent in all phases - route running, catching the ball, understanding coverages, just understanding how the defense is playing. Really these last couple years, including this year, he's played at a very high level. He had a real productive year for their offense last year. I think he's averaged, I want to say, 20 yards or close to 20 yards a catch since he's been in the league, so he's always been a big play receiver who can attack the third level part of the defense - the vertical part of the defense. He's done some other things just with the underneath route running and he's improved. It's a credit to him and a credit to the Pittsburgh coaching staff for what they've done with him."

Perspectives on Mike Wallace - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

If the coaching staff thinks Edelman can provide 75% of what a 31-year-old Wes Welker can, it makes this decision even easier. I love Welker, but there have been multiple hits the last 2-3 years where I've said, "He's not getting up from that..." To his credit, he always does. But I think Welker, while still above average, will decline faster than people think. I would still love him back on the team, but allotting $ for Welker would not deter me from going after Wallace. You still have Gronkowski and Hernandez for the middle of the field.

I think Bill will kick the tires on this. I understand needing assets for defense, but if you have a chance to become unusually good on one side of the ball, you take a hard look at it, IMO.