idle thoughts - the WR conundrum.....

[supafly]

Does Wallace know the Pat's offensive system? If not, how do we know we won't be another bust but this time an extremely expensive bust?

I think that is the million dollar question, or in Wallace's case, possibly closer to a 9 million dollar a year question.

Add in the unliklihood of Belichick trading a very precious 1st round draft choice in the new era of rookie caps, plus a monsterous contract on top of that, and I think it makes the Wallace to NE talk extremely unlikely.

Then again, Belichick may very well have a much better idea of whether or not Wallace could possibly fit here, taking into acct his attitude and work ethic, and may come to a different end result.

There are also other teams with 2 first rounders, and/or the need for a WR with Wallace's skill set, and they may be willing to take that gamble on a larger financial scale.

 

[Fencer]

Obviously, your comment is intended to be tongue in cheek regarding Lloyd, but I would also include Reggie Wayne on that list, without a doubt.

We may only be able to get 2 yrs from Wayne, but it would immediately upgrade the position considerably, and probably for the right cost.

In the meantime, we could attempt to add another WR or two via the draft, and also have the next 2 FA classes to bolster the quality of the position.

There's nothing wrong with band-aids if it dramatically improves the position. No one was complaining about Andre Carter last yr, and he certainly isn't viewed as being here "for the future."

My personal choice is Wayne. I believe that he has proven himself in every way, and would fit in financially and otherwise.

I would also be very excited with Lloyd, and even Wallace to a lesser degree, and for different reasons (upside, age, etc)--although I believe that BOTH will be overpriced, and that will be the key issue in this front office.

Regarding Wayne, I've seen the argument that the Indy offense depends on Peyton making PRE-snap reads, and that the receivers themselves don't have all that much reactive decision-making to do.

But it was a serious question, because I don't know whether there's another way to prove the ability other than to play in the Pats' offense. For example, surely most offenses have some kind of "hot" receiver against blitzes ...

 

[supafly]

Regarding Wayne, I've seen the argument that the Indy offense depends on Peyton making PRE-snap reads, and that the receivers themselves don't have all that much reactive decision-making to do.

But it was a serious question, because I don't know whether there's another way to prove the ability other than to play in the Pats' offense. For example, surely most offenses have some kind of "hot" receiver against blitzes ...

I think your question is just another reason why the team doesn't pay top dollar to an outside guy at WR. There's no way to tell if he'll succeed. I'm sure that BB knows a lot more about their potential to succeed then any of us do, but then again, he's also signed guys like D.Hayes, J.Galloway, and C.Ochocinco--so maybe there ISN'T a way to actually tell at all (?)

Without a doubt, I just don't see any of this adding up to going after a guy like M.Wallace. Then again, I'd doubt that they'd pay an outsider to come in an "hope" that they learn the system, especially when you consider the Welker situation too.

I honestly hate to be pessimistic, and I don't mean to be---but I think the best we can hope for is either a middle of the road guy like Lloyd (who may be too much, or get into a bidding war), or a one/two yr stopgap like a Reggie Wayne, who will likely be a lot more cost efficient.

They could also take a chance at a guy like Meachem or Royal etc too, as either one could offer a middle of the road cost effective deal.

I think that guys like V.Jackson and Colston will also command too much money to possibly come here, and I don't see any way that they tie up 20% of the salary cap into 2 WR positions. Just my opinion though.

REALITIES:

1.Lloyd (to some degree, that will depend on if he'll come cheap enough)
2.Wayne
3.Meachem
4.A guy like an Eddie Royal, which to me isn't that much of an upgrade

FANTASIES:

1.Wallace (no way we part w/ a 1st rd pick AND a major pact)
2.V.Jackson
3.Colston

 

[ATippett56]

I'm sure Reche Caldwell is at home eagerly awaiting a phone call!

 

[supafly]

I'm sure Reche Caldwell is at home eagerly awaiting a phone call!

Exactly. Now you're thinking like Belichick

It's so hard to try and 'guess' at what moves will be made, so a lot of the time all we can do is take everything into acct (cap situation, former patterns, actual "need" of said position) and try and make our best educated guesses.

Since we will still only have a limited amount of balls to go around, and the current offense was insanely productive, one can only assume that there's not a great chance that our GM/Coach is going to spend 20% of our cap on 2 WR positions.

I wonder if it would be that much different had Welker already signed an extension? I'm guessing it would, but not to the extent that everyone assumes.

We still will have the following depth chart for our targets from Brady:

1.Welker
2.Gronkowski
3.Some type of FA WR to make plays outside the numbers
4.Hernandez
5.Branch
6.Vereen/Ochocinco/draft pick

And that SHOULD be good enough...hell, the former 2011 chart should have been good enough.

In my opinion, the right guy (cost effective) is out there somewhere. He can stretch the field a bit more than Branch did, and make some more plays outside the numbers, thus keeping the defense more honest.

Who that guy is, is anyone's guess...but one would think that BB may have a group of targets available.

Hopefully, at least we recognize some of the names

I'm hoping it will be either Llyod, Meachem or Wayne. I think any of them are realistic, and would not fall into the 'excessive' kind of cap percentage spending that BB would tend to pass up. Hopefully one of those 3 agree.

 

[ATippett56]

I'm hoping it will be either Llyod, Meachem or Wayne. I think any of them are realistic, and would not fall into the 'excessive' kind of cap percentage spending that BB would tend to pass up. Hopefully one of those 3 agree.

Bring back Doug Gabriel!

 

[ATippett56]

I'm hoping it will be either Llyod, Meachem or Wayne. I think any of them are realistic, and would not fall into the 'excessive' kind of cap percentage spending that BB would tend to pass up. Hopefully one of those 3 agree.

In all seriousness, I don't have a clue since I was hoping Chad Ochostinko would have been cut by now.

My fear is that the New England Patriots will expend another draft pick on a wide receiver only to be a non-factor come the AFC Playoffs.

 

[supafly]

In all seriousness, I don't have a clue since I was hoping Chad Ochostinko would have been cut by now.

My fear is that the New England Patriots will expend another draft pick on a wide receiver only to be a non-factor come the AFC Playoffs.

Me too, AT, me too.

I suppose that there are 2 ways to look it at: one, that eventually the drafting dept and scouting service personnel will either change the way they approach their prospects and include more of our offensive scheming etc in to their pre-draft scouting---or two, they are just 'that' bad at trying to choose that particular position.

I think it should be assumed that they will grab a FA signing of some sort at WR, but it's hard to try and figure out what kind of level player that may be.

Again, I can't help but go back to the Welker situation to think that may have some effect on how they approach this issue.

They may be looking toward the future, thinking that Wes will be gone next yr; or they may simply look for the kind of upgrade that provides a bit more of what we need outside the numbers, in the thinking that Wes will stay for the future. If that's the case, you'd have to be a bit leery thinking that they'll go spending lots of money at the WR position.

Either way, I think we see another draft pick though. Besides the DL, the secondary, and maybe the interior OL--what the hell else are they going to do with them?

 

[supafly]

Bring back Doug Gabriel!

Good lord..I forgot about him.

Add him into the Hayes, Galloway, Caldwell, Ocho WR signings..then take into acct the Prices, C.Jacksons etc of the world through the draft.

This offense must be one hell of a complex system. They have a hard time replacing WR's no matter what, whether it be through the draft or the FA signings.

Of course, Moss, Welker, Givens, Patten, and Gaffney all worked out, so I guess it's just a crap shoot.

 

[ATippett56]

Either way, I think we see another draft pick though. Besides the DL, the secondary, and maybe the interior OL--what the hell else are they going to do with them?

At least the New England Patriots had previous success in the first round selecting defensive lineman:

Richard Seymour
Ty Warren
Vince Wilfork

The defensive line would be a great place to start rebuilding the 3-4 defense.

As for the 2012 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots are due for a great defensive draft.

 

[supafly]

At least the New England Patriots had previous success in the first round selecting defensive lineman:

Richard Seymour
Ty Warren
Vince Wilfork

The defensive line would be a great place to start rebuilding the 3-4 defense.

As for the 2012 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots are due for a great defensive draft.

Agreed.

I think the DL will be a fine place to expect some improvement and replenishment.

That would be my main focus personally, with a WR, a CB/S, and an interior lineman also taken--in no particular order.

The DL, from what I understand is a deep position this yr, and we have a need to add some talent, youth, and depth.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I think that is the million dollar question, or in Wallace's case, possibly closer to a 9 million dollar a year question.

Add in the unliklihood of Belichick trading a very precious 1st round draft choice in the new era of rookie caps, plus a monsterous contract on top of that, and I think it makes the Wallace to NE talk extremely unlikely.

Then again, Belichick may very well have a much better idea of whether or not Wallace could possibly fit here, taking into acct his attitude and work ethic, and may come to a different end result.

There are also other teams with 2 first rounders, and/or the need for a WR with Wallace's skill set, and they may be willing to take that gamble on a larger financial scale.

Well, of course that's THE question, but assuming Belichck wants him, I'd have no problem giving up #31 and a big contract for a proven deep threat 25 year old WR.

That's right on the cusp of being a 2nd round pick, and taking away a consistent deep threat who has caught 35 passes that were THROWN (not yards after catch) for more than 20 yards over the first three years of his career, I think teams would have no choice but to take him seriously right from the start.

Would he be a one trick pony that simply runs a straight sideline route, beats defenders with speed and keeps DBs honest, rather than running all the routes that Brady likes? Maybe. But I can live with that because frankly, we need a deep threat and I can't see Wallace being such a bust that he's unable to be a credible deep threat.

With Gronkowski, Hernandez, and from the sound of it Welker prepared to play for a full season, we have plenty of short to middle route running guys. What Brady really needs is a deep threat to keep defenses honest, and that will make things easier for Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez, our RBs, our OL, and most importantly, keep some pressure off of Brady.

Taking him away from a division rival is another win win

WRs typically take far too long to develop as rookies, so I view that as even a bigger bust risk than a young proven veteran... More importantly, I would think that OTHER teams would immediately view Wallace as a signficant threat.

So from where I sit, a deep threat WR is going to have to come from free agency (they'll probably draft one too but I wouldn't count on immediate production.)

If Welker were going to hold out I might lean more towards someone like Lloyd, but Welker sounds like he's willing to play under the tag if it comes to that.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Well, of course that's THE question, but assuming Belichck wants him, I'd have no problem giving up #31 and a big contract for a proven deep threat 25 year old WR.

That's right on the cusp of being a 2nd round pick, and taking away a consistent deep threat who has caught 35 passes that were THROWN (not yards after catch) for more than 20 yards over the first three years of his career, I think teams would have no choice but to take him seriously right from the start.

Would he be a one trick pony that simply runs a straight sideline route, beats defenders with speed and keeps DBs honest, rather than running all the routes that Brady likes? Maybe. But I can live with that because frankly, we need a deep threat and I can't see Wallace being such a bust that he's unable to be a credible deep threat.

With Gronkowski, Hernandez, and from the sound of it Welker prepared to play for a full season, we have plenty of short to middle route running guys. What Brady really needs is a deep threat to keep defenses honest, and that will make things easier for Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez, our RBs, our OL, and most importantly, keep some pressure off of Brady.

Taking him away from a division rival is another win win

WRs typically take far too long to develop as rookies, so I view that as even a bigger bust risk than a young proven veteran... More importantly, I would think that OTHER teams would immediately view Wallace as a signficant threat.

So from where I sit, a deep threat WR is going to have to come from free agency (they'll probably draft one too but I wouldn't count on immediate production.)

If Welker were going to hold out I might lean more towards someone like Lloyd, but Welker sounds like he's willing to play under the tag if it comes to that.

That's what happens with fans who get locked in. What you can live with and what the team can are two different things. What happens if someone gets injured and we're paying $8M+ for a one trick pony we traded a first for and have to rely on him to step up under adversity? Probably the same thing that happened when we paid $6M up front and $12M over 3 and traded 2 late round picks for Ocho...only with longer ranging and deeper repurcussions.

 

[JoeSixPat]

That's what happens with fans who get locked in. What you can live with and what the team can are two different things. What happens if someone gets injured and we're paying $8M+ for a one trick pony we traded a first for and have to rely on him to step up under adversity? Probably the same thing that happened when we paid $6M up front and $12M over 3 and traded 2 late round picks for Ocho...only with longer ranging and deeper repurcussions.

If we'd had a one trick pony deep threat WR on the team last year I think we'd be talking about the Patriots trying to repeat for Ring #5.

Some would surely be complaining that our deep threat WR doesn't run as good slant routes as Welker, but I for one would be fine with that...

And are we really resorting to comparing Wallace, a 25 year old consistent deep threat, with a 33 year old aging veteran who's 2010 numbers raised serious questions of his abilities right from the start?

 

[supafly]

If we'd had a one trick pony deep threat WR on the team last year I think we'd be talking about the Patriots trying to repeat for Ring #5.

Some would surely be complaining that our deep threat WR doesn't run as good slant routes as Welker, but I for one would be fine with that...

And are we really resorting to comparing Wallace, a 25 year old consistent deep threat, with a 33 year old aging veteran who's 2010 numbers raised serious questions of his abilities right from the start?

I certainly agree with you.

BUT..I also agree that if any of the following happen, we probably are talking about ring #5:

1. Gronk is healthy

2. Brady doesn't get hurt in the 3rd quarter

3. Welker makes the catch

4. Brady doesn't throw the INT

5. Manningham doesn't make the catch

6. The NEP recover any one of 3 Giants fumbles

etc, etc, etc

And none of those would have costed a 40-50 million dollar contract.

 

[yopats]

I think if BB is smart looking at the best short term and long term way of building the receiving corps.

Free Agency
Brandon Lloyd -- Cheap and will be effective short term

Draft-
Stephen Hill WR (Georgia Tech) -- Kind of a project but can't help but love the possibilities will give us a true weapon that can stretch the field like Moss and open up our entire offense.
Ryan Broles WR (Oklahoma) - Deion Branch 2.0 .. recovering from a ACL injury.. future looks good with this approach..

 

[PatsFan2]

Pierre Garson or Robert Meacham both young up and coming and much better than regarded.

 

[Ian]

If we'd had a one trick pony deep threat WR on the team last year I think we'd be talking about the Patriots trying to repeat for Ring #5.

You're kind of right, but only because they really needed anyone other than Branch, Edelman, and Slater at the end of that game primarily because with Gronk hurt, Lloyd or Wallace would clearly have been better options than who they had.

I'd almost settle for two Lloyds rather than Wallace and then some guy who isn't any better than Edelman or Slater. My reasoning is because since injuries happen, we just need guys who can run routes, get separation and get open, and then catch the ball. With a Hall of Fame quarterback in the final years of his career, it just makes sense to bring in some decent depth at this point. They're so close and have some great pieces...so obviously we'll have to see how it plays out.

 

[JoeSixPat]

You're kind of right, but only because they really needed anyone other than Branch, Edelman, and Slater at the end of that game primarily because with Gronk hurt, Lloyd or Wallace would clearly have been better options than who they had.

I'd almost settle for two Lloyds rather than Wallace and then some guy who isn't any better than Edelman or Slater. My reasoning is because since injuries happen, we just need guys who can run routes, get separation and get open, and then catch the ball. With a Hall of Fame quarterback in the final years of his career, it just makes sense to bring in some decent depth at this point. They're so close and have some great pieces...so obviously we'll have to see how it plays out.

All true... Any one thing breaks in favor of the Pats in that game and they're champions.

But i don't think anyone disputes that the lack of a deep threat allows defenses to more readily collapse, put pressure on the short to mid range receivers whether it's Lloyd, Branch, Welker, Gronk or Hernandez, can clog the running lanes, make the OL's job that much more difficult and ultimately allows Defenses to put more pressure directly on Brady.

Addressing that weak link in the offense can have some very positive impact in all other realms of the offense, and I'm no more comfortable going into this season with a question mark at the deep spot than I was last year when I had some major doubts that Ocho or anyone else could be effective enough to keep defenses honest.

I think everyone can admit that having Wallace on the field is going to require Defenses to take his deep talents very very seriously, and they won't be so apt to collapse their defense from Day One that he's out there. You certainly can't say that with a rookie or even another clone of Welker.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Defenses can be spread horizontally as well as vertically. Deep threats are self limiting because the opportunities to hit them are low percentage throws and unless you hit them consistently defense won't respect them they way you hoped they would. Here in order to be on the field a high percentage of the time you have to be a high percentage target and that means someone who can run all the routes and make all the correct reads and adjustments as well as do all the little things that help your teamates succeed. Otherwise you're seeing spot duty at best and you're not on the field in the hurry up or when the chips are down. And you can't step up and fill a void when a teamate goes down.

Wallace has no experience in this offense or one anything like it. He disappeared down the stretch in Pittsburgh last season. They aren't looking to sign him long term for big money. They're somewhere between hoping they can retain him inexpensively for another season and hoping someone else signs him to an offer sheet so they get a second first rounder...