First of all, I agree that it was not a bad play call.
The most important things that happened in that final sequence were the Time Out that the Seahawks called because it took so long to get in position after the Kearse catch and the Time Out that Belichick did not call after the Lynch run inside the five.
If they are going to run four plays in the remaining 1:06 and Belichick does not call a TO, one of them has to be a pass.
Lynch takes it to the one.
Clock is running; you look at Carroll on the sideline and it seems like he's waiting for something: "isn't Bill going to call a Time Out?" Precious seconds tick off the clock so Carroll either has to go run-timeout-run or pass-(incompletion/TD)-run-timeout-run. The next snap comes with 26 seconds left and the rest is history.
We'll never know what was going on in BB's mind at the 1:06 point. Whatever it was, he decided to take a stand, bet the farm on his D and not rely on a miracle finish by the Offense.
Had someone reminded him from the booth (or, more likely, did he remember on his own) that Lynch was just 1 for 5 from the one yard line this season (link below)?
Or, did he think Carroll would throw a pass because he wanted to show he was the smartest guy on either sideline by winning the game by doing the unexpected?
Or, did he just assume that Carroll would play the odds that three attempts were better than two and throw what should have been a high percentage pass (incomplete or TD) for that reason? Assume that a safe pass play properly executed in this situation was a good call and rely on his guys to out-execute the Seahawks?
For whichever reason, BB knew the obvious: a pass from the one was still riskier than a run because of the human element. If Wilson passes, more bad things can happen than good: muffed snap, sack, INT, incompletion vs. TD. It worked out that way.
Wilson looks at Kearse and Lockette for a split second, tipping the play (if the formation itself wasn't obvious enough).
Browner busts Kearse's pick.
Butler sees Wilson's eyes before the snap and runs like a madman to the place where the ball will be in two seconds.
Wilson fails to recognize the broken play and instead of throwing the ball to Lockette's back shoulder or into the third row of the stadium, he puts it out in front, where Lockette's hands are supposed to be if Browner hadn't broken the pick and Butler wasn't waiting for it. (Wilson has gotten off with too little of the blame for this, IMO.)
Surreal.
http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/sto...lysis-context-pete-carroll-call-patriots-2014