Bad Drafting=Mediocre Results

[Badger]

The Pats last 2 drafts have produced almost no impact players other than Jamie Collins and almost no help to the current offense. A review of the last 2 drafts and their offensive/defensive snaps in yesterday's game..... 2014 - D.Easley (16), J.Garrapolo (0), B.Stork (15), J. White (Inactive), C.Fleming (12), J.Halapio (Cut), J.Thomas (Cut), J.Gallon (Cut). 2013 - J.Collins (20), A.Dobson (Inactive), L.Ryan (60), D.Harmon (12), J.Boyce (Cut), M.Buchanon (Inactive), S.Beauharnais (0).

While it is obviously hard for a young player to break into a talented lineup, the lack of impact players in the last 2 drafts is alarming. Pats have had 15 picks in the last 2 rounds to come up with a player to help Brady in the twilight of his career and not one was on the field yesterday. Just have to look at a guy like John Brown in Arizona or Brandin Cooks in New Orleans to see a fast game changer who can bring a quick Percy Harvin type player to an offense sorely lacking in firepower or a Jordan Matthews who brings some size and talent to Philly.

Hopefully guys like Easley and Garrapolo will be future impact players but that is far from a certainty at this point. Can't afford too many drafts in the NFL where you don't help stockpile your talent, especially when Brady isn't going to be around forever.

 

[Ivan]

By "mediocre results" you must mean one Super Bowl appearance and 3 AFCC game appearances while overturning 49-53 player's on the roster.

Yep, Belichick really sucks.

Now name 1 team in NFL history that has done the same while replacing all but 4 player's on their roster?

 

[mayoclinic]

- Jamie Collins was a game-time decision, and still hobbled by a thigh injury. He was used sparingly (only in the base defense), and clearly wasn't 100%.
- Dom Easley didn't play in a pre-season game and is still not 100% back from his ACL. He's coming along faster than expected, according to BB.
- Aaron Dobson likely still isn't fully recovered from injuries.
- Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't drafted to get on the field in 2014. If that's your measure of a good draft pick, then he's obviously a massive fail.
- Logan Ryan played 60/60 snaps. He emerged as a playmaker last season.
- Bryan Stork looks ready to seize the starting center role. Cam Fleming has already been a big story this season. Both are rookies, for crissakes.

Anyone who expects rookies to be making a significant impact 3 games into the season is pretty out of touch with reality.

 

[Tunescribe]

The Pats last 2 drafts have produced almost no impact players other than Jamie Collins and almost no help to the current offense. A review of the last 2 drafts and their offensive/defensive snaps in yesterday's game..... 2014 - D.Easley (16), J.Garrapolo (0), B.Stork (15), J. White (Inactive), C.Fleming (12), J.Halapio (Cut), J.Thomas (Cut), J.Gallon (Cut). 2013 - J.Collins (20), A.Dobson (Inactive), L.Ryan (60), D.Harmon (12), J.Boyce (Cut), M.Buchanon (Inactive), S.Beauharnais (0).

While it is obviously hard for a young player to break into a talented lineup, the lack of impact players in the last 2 drafts is alarming. Pats have had 15 picks in the last 2 rounds to come up with a player to help Brady in the twilight of his career and not one was on the field yesterday. Just have to look at a guy like John Brown in Arizona or Brandin Cooks in New Orleans to see a fast game changer who can bring a quick Percy Harvin type player to an offense sorely lacking in firepower or a Jordan Matthews who brings some size and talent to Philly.

Hopefully guys like Easley and Garrapolo will be future impact players but that is far from a certainty at this point. Can't afford too many drafts in the NFL where you don't help stockpile your talent, especially when Brady isn't going to be around forever.

Do you play fantasy football?

 

[chasa]

Yeah guys why didnt we draft a player like sammy watkins or Clowny.

Damn you bill for not drafting those top tier picks.

 

[RIpats88]

1. Collins - starting LB, clearly was limited yesterday due to his thigh injury.
2. Logan ryan - currently our starting #2 CB until/unless Dennard gets healthy/browner returns.
3. Easly - rookie playing as a rotational DT. being eased in.
4. Dobson - started last week, still trying to shake off rust from off-season surgery.

not sure how I see many busts in there? week 3, we are 2-1 and the sky is falling on this board.

 

[JMC00]

Holy hell. This stupid look at Player A on Team B ********.

 

[Ivan]

Yeah guys why didnt we draft a player like sammy watkins or Clowny.

Damn you bill for not drafting those top tier picks.

I still haven't forgiven him for passing on JJ Watt and Calvin Johnson.

 

[Ivan]

Can someone please explain to me why Belichick always chooses to pick 28th-32nd when he could always decide to take his turn with top 5 picks? he is such and idiot.

 

[grux]

What team has done a better job when their first pick is always between 28-32? Belichick the GM has also done an unbelievable job rebuilding his team on the fly.

 

[chasa]

I still haven't forgiven him for passing on JJ Watt and Calvin Johnson.

God BB He's so bad at his job, I'm so much better, On madden 2015 my entire roster is players rated 99 or higher in every stat.

 

[upstater1]

Last couple of drafts will actually yield a lot of good players.

The Patriots biggest problem is what happened in the drafts prior to Chandler Jones and Hightower's draft.

Ras-I-Dowling, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Taylor Price, Aaron Hernandez's meltdown, Patrick Chung, Ron Brace, Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Tyrone McKenzie, Terence Wheatley, Shawn Crable.

3 or 4 years, a lot of misses. These guys are all hurting the Patriots. Think of those 11 picks in the top 3 rounds over 3 or 4 years. If 3 of those guys ended up playing where projected, the Patriots would be a totally different team right now. If Ras-I-Dowling had become say a solid starting S. If Jermaine Cunningham had become a DE burner off the edge. If Taylor Price or Brandon Tate could have played the role of, say, a David Givens. That would have been a big help.

 

[Urgent]

This argument comes up frequently, and responses typically fall into two firm categories:

One side: Our drafting is terrible. Look at all the failed second rounders.
The other: Look at all the AFC Championship games! Our drafting must be great!

I think these are two separate issues.

The success: the primary reasons the Patriots have gone to so many AFC Championships is:
a) Tom Brady & Bill Belichick - a winning QB who has been consistently great the past 15 years, and the best NFL coach of the Super Bowl era
b) incredibly weak AFC East that has not consistently threatened the Patriots - characterized by constant QB and coaching turnover - leading to annual playoff spots

The drafting results, anytime you do a quantitative analysis, are no better than average. The poor results in the second round are hard to ignore.

While the Patriots have won a lot of regular season games and constantly qualify for the post-season, and no team has consistently won the Super Bowl 10 times in a row, it's rational to wonder what the results might have been with better drafting. If the Patriots had succeeded in a few of those wide receiver and defensive back selections, could they have won one or two more post-season games? The window, while it has been open a long time, won't be open forever.

 

[Nikolai]

So 7 point wins are to be treated as losses on the board now?

Interesting...

 

[TruthSeeker]

Last couple of drafts will actually yield a lot of good players.

The Patriots biggest problem is what happened in the drafts prior to Chandler Jones and Hightower's draft.

Ras-I-Dowling, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Taylor Price, Aaron Hernandez's meltdown, Patrick Chung, Ron Brace, Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Tyrone McKenzie, Terence Wheatley, Shawn Crable.

3 or 4 years, a lot of misses. These guys are all hurting the Patriots. Think of those 11 picks in the top 3 rounds over 3 or 4 years. If 3 of those guys ended up playing where projected, the Patriots would be a totally different team right now. If Ras-I-Dowling had become say a solid starting S. If Jermaine Cunningham had become a DE burner off the edge. If Taylor Price or Brandon Tate could have played the role of, say, a David Givens. That would have been a big help.

Agree 100%, those were some big misses in the 2nd round and later.

 

[tmajr3]

What team outside of 25 have had great drafts? When you pick as late as the Pats you aren't going to get sure fire starters every year.

But BB has missed badly on some but everyone does. I believe it's more about the guys he didn't take, Jordan Matthews Allen Roninsom being two of them

 

[BradyFTW!]

The Pats last 2 drafts have produced almost no impact players other than Jamie Collins and almost no help to the current offense. A review of the last 2 drafts and their offensive/defensive snaps in yesterday's game..... 2014 - D.Easley (16), J.Garrapolo (0), B.Stork (15), J. White (Inactive), C.Fleming (12), J.Halapio (Cut), J.Thomas (Cut), J.Gallon (Cut). 2013 - J.Collins (20), A.Dobson (Inactive), L.Ryan (60), D.Harmon (12), J.Boyce (Cut), M.Buchanon (Inactive), S.Beauharnais (0).

While it is obviously hard for a young player to break into a talented lineup, the lack of impact players in the last 2 drafts is alarming. Pats have had 15 picks in the last 2 rounds to come up with a player to help Brady in the twilight of his career and not one was on the field yesterday. Just have to look at a guy like John Brown in Arizona or Brandin Cooks in New Orleans to see a fast game changer who can bring a quick Percy Harvin type player to an offense sorely lacking in firepower or a Jordan Matthews who brings some size and talent to Philly.

Hopefully guys like Easley and Garrapolo will be future impact players but that is far from a certainty at this point. Can't afford too many drafts in the NFL where you don't help stockpile your talent, especially when Brady isn't going to be around forever.

Evaluating a draft class after three weeks is a whole new level of pointless. At this time last year, Jamie Collins wasn't even on the field yet, and since he's the one pick that you seem to be okay with, you should keep that in mind before you try to evaluate this class.

There was a period where the drafting really hurt the team, and it was from 2006-2009. Those drafts got us Gost, Mayo, Slater, Vollmer, and Edelman, but they also yielded a bunch of guys who are now out of the league, and only a couple of guys who are now contributing for other teams (Ohrnberger, Butler, Tate).

But I challenge you to name 5 teams that have drafted more impact players overs the past 4-5 years than the Pats have. From 2010-2013 (since, again, you can't even begin evaluating 2014 yet), the Pat drafted McCourty, Gronk, Hernandez, Solder, Vereen, Ridley, Cannon, Jones, Hightower, Dennard, Collins, and Ryan. That's a good haul by any reasonable standard.

And it's not even like the 2014 class is underwhelming so far. Stork looks poised to become a starter any week now (and looks like he might already be the best center on the roster), Easley has already carved out a sub package role (which means he's ahead of where Collins was last year) while coming back from a knee injury, and they're finding ways to get Fleming on the field because they seem to think he's good and ready to play right now. When you're picking outside the top 20 and you already have three rookies making meaningful contributions (and playing well: not just playing poorly in a significant role) by week 3, that's a good sign.

 

[Urgent]

I still haven't forgiven him for passing on JJ Watt and Calvin Johnson.

Oh, let's all be sarcastic and hyperbolic.

How can we possibly be any good at drafting??? We usually draft after the top 10 spots!!!

Weak argument.

Granted - the Patriots missed on all the top 10 players that were good that they didn't draft, because they couldn't.

If you want to be sarcastic, go ahead. If you want to look objectively, take a look.

OK, how about in 2011 trading down from 28 to select Ras-I-Dowling when Muhammad Wilkerson was on board. The Patriots had been, and continue to, look for defensive linemen for the 3-4 set. Many folks on this board were hungering for Wilkerson, and were very unhappy when the Jets grabbed him. Want to point to that one? Picking Dowling when Brooks Reed, Torrey Smith, and other Patsfans favorites at the time were there?

How about Tavon Wilson in 2012 over LB Lavonte David, 3-4 DE Kendall Reyes, WR Rueben Randle, etc? In the same draft, selecting Nate Ebner - yes, an athlete, but pretty much every pick after him had some actual experience playing football. And before anyone researches what draft slot he was in, and says the success rate is really low anyway, yes, he was pick 197. The Patriots have had success in that vicinity historically. And if the Patriots could develop a rugby player into an excellent special teams player, maybe they could have done the same with another player with more experience.

Sure, the fans do not have any personal insight into real work ethic or capability to pick up a system.
Sure, the draft is an inexact science. Impossible to hit on all your picks.
However, there were some odd decisions, that were questioned at the time, where it turned out mistakes were made. If some of those risky decisions were simply replaced with some of the consensus picks, results might have been different.

Other than name-calling and hyperbole, hard to argue with those who question some of those decisions.

 

[Ivan]

Oh, let's all be sarcastic and hyperbolic.

How can we possibly be any good at drafting??? We usually draft after the top 10 spots!!!

Weak argument.

Granted - the Patriots missed on all the top 10 players that were good that they didn't draft, because they couldn't.

If you want to be sarcastic, go ahead. If you want to look objectively, take a look.

OK, how about in 2011 trading down from 28 to select Ras-I-Dowling when Muhammad Wilkerson was on board. The Patriots had been, and continue to, look for defensive linemen for the 3-4 set. Many folks on this board were hungering for Wilkerson, and were very unhappy when the Jets grabbed him. Want to point to that one? Picking Dowling when Brooks Reed, Torrey Smith, and other Patsfans favorites at the time were there?

How about Tavon Wilson in 2012 over LB Lavonte David, 3-4 DE Kendall Reyes, WR Rueben Randle, etc? In the same draft, selecting Nate Ebner - yes, an athlete, but pretty much every pick after him had some actual experience playing football. And before anyone researches what draft slot he was in, and says the success rate is really low anyway, yes, he was pick 197. The Patriots have had success in that vicinity historically. And if the Patriots could develop a rugby player into an excellent special teams player, maybe they could have done the same with another player with more experience.

Sure, the fans do not have any personal insight into real work ethic or capability to pick up a system.
Sure, the draft is an inexact science. Impossible to hit on all your picks.
However, there were some odd decisions, that were questioned at the time, where it turned out mistakes were made. If some of those risky decisions were simply replaced with some of the consensus picks, results might have been different.

Other than name-calling and hyperbole, hard to argue with those who question some of those decisions.

Oh, let's cherry pick and draft in hindsight, that's really tough to do, in fact every fantasy GM is exceptional at it. pretty much everyone acknowledges their draft misses, they just understand that every team has them, not just the Patriots, and in the big picture it is success that reflects good drafting and not nitpicking individual selections, and the actual leaguewide evaluations of drafting have consistently rated the Patriots at the top and have been cited repeatedly in this forum with no counter ever offered to them other than they missed on certain picks. If the Patriot had been sucking you guys would have an argument, as they have stayed at the top and that wasn't due to free agency you have no serious argument.


I have questioned a good number of their picks as well, and wanted LaVonte David as much as anyone and said so at the time, but they are looking at a much more complex picture and no one can argue about their overall team building because they are always good.

 

[Ivan]

Evaluating a draft class after three weeks is a whole new level of pointless. At this time last year, Jamie Collins wasn't even on the field yet, and since he's the one pick that you seem to be okay with, you should keep that in mind before you try to evaluate this class.

There was a period where the drafting really hurt the team, and it was from 2006-2009. Those drafts got us Gost, Mayo, Slater, Vollmer, and Edelman, but they also yielded a bunch of guys who are now out of the league, and only a couple of guys who are now contributing for other teams (Ohrnberger, Butler, Tate).

But I challenge you to name 5 teams that have drafted more impact players overs the past 4-5 years than the Pats have. From 2010-2013 (since, again, you can't even begin evaluating 2014 yet), the Pat drafted McCourty, Gronk, Hernandez, Solder, Vereen, Ridley, Cannon, Jones, Hightower, Dennard, Collins, and Ryan. That's a good haul by any reasonable standard.

And it's not even like the 2014 class is underwhelming so far. Stork looks poised to become a starter any week now (and looks like he might already be the best center on the roster), Easley has already carved out a sub package role (which means he's ahead of where Collins was last year) while coming back from a knee injury, and they're finding ways to get Fleming on the field because they seem to think he's good and ready to play right now. When you're picking outside the top 20 and you already have three rookies making meaningful contributions (and playing well: not just playing poorly in a significant role) by week 3, that's a good sign.

Agree completely with the overall take and that they sucked at drafting from 2006-2009, it was a really bad stretch for them, but when you look at the entire history under Belichick they have been very good.