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The proposed trade of Rob Housley for a 2nd or 3rd round pick(or a 4th or 5th or 6th) doesn't even come close to that level of risk/reward.
I certainly am not advocating giving up a day 2 pick for Housler. But stranger things have happened. The Pats traded a 2nd and 7th for Wes Welker in 2007, and that ended up working out pretty well, though a lot of people thought they overspent at the time. For comparison purposes:
- Welker through his first 3 years (2004-2006): 96 receptions, 1121 yards, 1 TD
- Housler through his first 3 years (2011-2013): 96 receptions, 1004 yards, 1 TD
Again, I'm certainly not advocating it, but if the Pats formed a high enough opinion of Housler the way they did of Welker, it wouldn't be out of the question to go as high as a day 2 pick.