Idle thoughts – I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft

[mgteich]

Ken,

Yes, we are fans. And yes, it is a bit frustrating to see players we don't know drafted. However, Collins and Dobson were rated by Mayock almost exactly where they were picked. Ryan was a bit early, but a half a round early was necessary because of the run on corners.

All this being said, there is no explanation for choosing a 6th or 7th rounder at 91 when we had a pick at 102 and lots of alternatives on the board.

I am a Pats fan...and this is the draft. So normally this is where I would go into my annual rant about my frustration in investing countless days discussing the pros and cons of dozens of potential Pats players, detailing with others about who we should pick and who is likely to be there when we do. Then there are the hours spent in watching the actual draft unfold, and once again be subject to trying to figure out what the **** just happened.

I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft. So I watched my team trade down....again, and mostly agreed with the process. I justified the wasted 3 and half hours, by looking forward to a busy day on Friday, with 4 picks in the next 70, and dozens of very nice prospects that we could grab. People made lists. Lists with dozens of recognizable names that had been discussed over the last few months. Lists with lots of players that I would be comfortable with.

I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft. So I am accustomed (or at least should be) to watching players I would love come off the board, only to hear the Pats make a pick of a player whom I haven't heard mentioned a SINGLE time in all the months leading up to this point. (If someone wrote a post touting Jamie Collins as a prospect, I'd love to see it.)

I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft. So I should be accustomed by now to watching my personal binkie (Margus Hunt) get picked immediately AFTER we get another mystery man.

I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft. So when all is said and done, we end up drafting 4 players. 3 of which had NEVER been discussed, and a 4th whose name I recognized (Aaron Dobson) but rarely saw mentioned as a likely prospect for us.

I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft. So I should be accustomed by now at checking the players we drafted and finding all had significantly lower draft grades than the players drafted around them. Clearly whatever scoring system is used by the rest of league, we are using something else.

I am a Pats fans....and this the draft. So this whine is something we all do at this time, and over the next few days it will be echoed by many, who like myself our scratching our heads and trying to make sense of what just happened. I will have gird myself to hearing the mediots take this draft apart. Ron Borges is practically giddy with anticipation, and I can see Mazz, with all his football knowledge salivating.

BUT HERE'S THE THING: I am a freakin' Pats fan! And I get to watch my team get to win 10+ games EVERY freakin' year, without the occasional dips we see from the “other good teams”. My team has a young roster, seemingly filled with talented players. And none of us expect anything less but ANOTHER serious run at a superbowl.

This team is a lot more than just a HOF QB, and the best coach in the league. It takes 53 players to win all those games against other talented teams and it only gets harder every year. Somehow during these war of attrition seasons, BB has built teams that can survive all the injuries that occur, better than most everyone else. That depth that allows those double digit season got there somehow. So whatever we do in the draft and however strange it must seem you CANNOT argue with the end results...You just can't. We must be doing something right in the player acquisition process. Otherwise all those teams that seem to do better than us, would be beating us.

BOTTOM LINE: We can question. We can complain, but until the day comes where we start to see those 8-8 or 5-11 seasons again, there has to be some acknowledgment that whatever BB is doing in the player acquisition department is working, rendering all our *****ing and moaning pretty much irrelevant. (including my own)

 

[Rob0729]

31 teams have the best Qb in the league, 31 teams have the best Qb of all time too right? Stop pretending this isn't a unique situation. Stop pretending we don't have a unique advantage because we have an elite QB with reasonable cap hits because he took a massive pay cut on an extension this offseason to lower his cap number. Stop pretending other teams aren't getting bent over by their elite Qbs cap wise.

I'll let the rah rah BS go on now, those are my 2 cents. See ya.

Brady hasn't been the best QB in the league for the last 45 years. Over the years, there have been different best QBs in the league. For a decade or more it was Montana and Bill Walsh was only able to get three rings with him. At another time it was Marino and he has none. For a period of time it was Elway who only has two. Favre could lay claim for that title and he has one. Over the last three years, you could argue Rodgers is the best and he has one and hasn't sniffed the Super Bowl since.

The fact of the matter is the Pats were one minute away from winning a Super Bowl twice in the last five years and went to two other AFC title games in the last six. That means the Pats have put together teams good enough to win Super Bowls over that era. Other factors including poor execution by players and coaches, injuries to key players, luck (Tyree catch), and just opposing team rising to the occasion played into the fact the Pats haven't won a Super Bowl since 2004.

Every one of the Pats' Super Bowl appearances came down to the wire whether they won or loss. The only real difference between the wins or losses are a handful of plays that were executed. I don't credit or blame drafting on whether did or didn't make them.

 

[IllegalContact]

not so idle thoughts

it is important to have an opinion about the draft picks.....I just have no idea why.....oh yeah, because we are all experts

 

[Ring 6]

After watching the press conference I am not as concerend anymore with this draft class. He said there could be FAs after the draft and if we get Abraham for the rotation I think this their plan is shapping up very nicely. There are still some quality players left for the 4th round pick (Patton, Jesse Williams).

The draft is a crapshot. I can remember that many experts didn't like the Seahawks last year draft and look what now everyone says about this draft class. The Harmon pick is a headscratcher and I honestly don't know why he did it. He could've easily waited for the 4th round pick. I didn't like the Logan pick either. Another zone CB that can get burned easily? Yeah exactly what this D needed. Maybe like last year we'll get a real steal a la Dennard in the 7th that makes it look better. But after all I'm happy with this off season. Only thing that really stings is that instead of Harmon we could have Sanders. That would've been a great draft this way.

The draft IS a crapshoot. That doesn't mean darts at a board.
At any point in the draft there are a number of players who all 'appear' to be similar level of prospects. The later in the draft, the bigger the number.
The real crapshoot though is that all you have now is potential. Every player drafted has the basic skillset to exceed the expectations of his draft slot, but there are 100s of variables for how a 21 year old with potential does in his professional career, especially after, in most cases, having money for the first time.
What is their work ethic? Off the field distractions? Remember when you were 21? If you had more money than you needed and half the year off, how many bad habits would you develop? Everyone would answer that differently, which is really the point. No player is drafted with good techmique in all areas they need it in the NFL. They must all improve. Every player has their own learning curve. Most of the highly touted picks were physically superior to their competition in college, and tend to be weak on technique. Whether they develop that or not is unknown.
Really 90% of the success of any of these draft choices is what they do AFTER today, not what got them drafted. Those drafted higher have less development to endure, but clearly as the actual results of the draft have shown, that only changes the percentages a bit, it doesnt guarantee anything.

 

[bishbash]

(imagined contribution)

I am a Pat's sportswriter....and this is the draft. I have spent months studying hundreds of hours of film and diligently examining reports of college players that could possibly be a good fit for the Patriots. I have spent many dozens of hours writing up articles/preparing video reports to post to the public regarding my best guesses regarding who the Patriots might draft. And every single year my predictions are not only incorrect, the Patriots seem to draft players I hadn't even considered, much less mentioned. I feel a failure, again.

I am a Pat's sportswriter....and this is the draft. I count my blessings, for most fans seem to forget, year after year, that Bill Belichick and company always confound the predictions of every single draft prediction. Fortunately, they always read my predictions, year after year.

I am a Pat's sportswriter....and this is the draft. Next year, I think I'll have my 4 year old daughter draw names from a hat of all the available draftees. I'm sure I'll get a few more names right than in previous predictions.

 

[Rob0729]

Ken,

Yes, we are fans. And yes, it is a bit frustrating to see players we don't know drafted. However, Collins and Dobson were rated by Mayock almost exactly where they were picked. Ryan was a bit early, but a half a round early was necessary because of the run on corners.

All this being said, there is no explanation for choosing a 6th or 7th rounder at 91 when we had a pick at 102 and lots of alternatives on the board.

Again, you haven't answered me this question. When did Mike Mayock become the standard on where a player is supposed to be drafted or not? I like Mayock, but he is not perfect. Not even close.

Also, using Mayocks Big Board of the Top 100 players is not valid way of judging anyway. He ranks all the players as he sees them no matter the position, but a ton of those picks are not on the Pats board at all and shouldn't be.

I mean he has Geno Smith ranked 21. Say the Jets didn't draft him and he fell to #52 and the Pats picked him, would you be praising them for getting the 21st best player with the 52nd pick or would you be blasting them for taking a QB with their first pick in the draft when they have Brady and Mallett on the bench?

You strip away the players on Mayock's board that the Pats have absolutely no need or would never draft even if they fell to them in the seventh round, Mayock's board would look completely different. If Mayock was making a Big Board just for the Pats, Collins and Dobson might be top 20. Hence using it as you way of judging the Pats' draft is flawed to begin with before you accept the fact that it is just one man's opinion.

 

[IllegalContact]

after looking at who was available at the moment the pats picks were picked, I can't really make an argument about the 'who'

the 2 consecutive DB's still bugs me a bit.....I figured that's what they would do at WR in order to get at least 1 guy who can play.

the pats won't suffer if neither DB pans out, but they will if dobson doesn't.....so my complaint is really limited to the notion of hedging bets

there's certainly nothing as blatant as taking ron brace instead of connor barwin

 

[Nunchucks]

I like that people are whining about an end of the 3rd rd pick. that is comedy gold

 

[goheels22002]

I am a Pats fan...and this is the draft. So normally this is where I would go into my annual rant about my frustration in investing countless days discussing the pros and cons of dozens of potential Pats players, detailing with others about who we should pick and who is likely to be there when we do. Then there are the hours spent in watching the actual draft unfold, and once again be subject to trying to figure out what the **** just happened.

I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft. So I watched my team trade down....again, and mostly agreed with the process. I justified the wasted 3 and half hours, by looking forward to a busy day on Friday, with 4 picks in the next 70, and dozens of very nice prospects that we could grab. People made lists. Lists with dozens of recognizable names that had been discussed over the last few months. Lists with lots of players that I would be comfortable with.

I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft. So I am accustomed (or at least should be) to watching players I would love come off the board, only to hear the Pats make a pick of a player whom I haven't heard mentioned a SINGLE time in all the months leading up to this point. (If someone wrote a post touting Jamie Collins as a prospect, I'd love to see it.)

I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft. So I should be accustomed by now to watching my personal binkie (Margus Hunt) get picked immediately AFTER we get another mystery man.

I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft. So when all is said and done, we end up drafting 4 players. 3 of which had NEVER been discussed, and a 4th whose name I recognized (Aaron Dobson) but rarely saw mentioned as a likely prospect for us.

I am a Pats fan....and this is the draft. So I should be accustomed by now at checking the players we drafted and finding all had significantly lower draft grades than the players drafted around them. Clearly whatever scoring system is used by the rest of league, we are using something else.

I am a Pats fans....and this the draft. So this whine is something we all do at this time, and over the next few days it will be echoed by many, who like myself our scratching our heads and trying to make sense of what just happened. I will have gird myself to hearing the mediots take this draft apart. Ron Borges is practically giddy with anticipation, and I can see Mazz, with all his football knowledge salivating.

BUT HERE'S THE THING: I am a freakin' Pats fan! And I get to watch my team get to win 10+ games EVERY freakin' year, without the occasional dips we see from the “other good teams”. My team has a young roster, seemingly filled with talented players. And none of us expect anything less but ANOTHER serious run at a superbowl.

This team is a lot more than just a HOF QB, and the best coach in the league. It takes 53 players to win all those games against other talented teams and it only gets harder every year. Somehow during these war of attrition seasons, BB has built teams that can survive all the injuries that occur, better than most everyone else. That depth that allows those double digit season got there somehow. So whatever we do in the draft and however strange it must seem you CANNOT argue with the end results...You just can't. We must be doing something right in the player acquisition process. Otherwise all those teams that seem to do better than us, would be beating us.

BOTTOM LINE: We can question. We can complain, but until the day comes where we start to see those 8-8 or 5-11 seasons again, there has to be some acknowledgment that whatever BB is doing in the player acquisition department is working, rendering all our *****ing and moaning pretty much irrelevant. (including my own)

Is Maya Angelou your mama?

 

[Peachhead]

Remember, BB is the best coach in the league. Easily one of the best in the history of the league. And he has Tom Brady (another one of the GOATs). Give him a year coaching up East Buttplug Junior College and put Brady at QB and they would have a winning season in the NFL. He can get noname players to do what no other coach can.

So the correlation between having a great W/L record and drafting good is imperfect at best.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Is Maya Angelou your mama?

Actually for me it brought up images of BB teaching his staff the war room prayer...

THIS IS MY DRAFT. THERE ARE MANY LIKE IT BUT THIS ONE IS MINE...

 

[Brady2Moss]

Laughing at all the people making excuses for this team and what ifs. I'll leave it at that.

 

[JackBauer]

Laughing at all the people making excuses for this team and what ifs. I'll leave it at that.

And we're all laughing at you.

 

[Synovia]

The Harmon pick is a headscratcher and I honestly don't know why he did it. He could've easily waited for the 4th round pick..

If BB thought that Harmon would be available in the 4th, he would have waited till the 4th to pick him.


I don't know why people don't understand this. The fact that Mel Kiper doesn't have tape of a player doesn't mean that NFL teams don't. Kiper (and the rest of the draftnicks) were all up in Arms about Sebastian Vollmer in the 2nd round, saying they could have waited until the 5th or 6th.

Turns out, hes probably the best Tackle to come out of that draft, and several teams would have taken him before the end of that round.


Why do people assume that Mel Kiper knows more about how teams are going to draft, than the people who make their living on the performance of those drafts?

 

[mgteich]

Collins and Dobson were fine value when they were picked, according to Mayock. I don't understand your point at all. It wouldn't make sense to pick a WR in Round One because it was our biggest hole (only hole).

I have no problem with any pick except Harmon.

With regard to Mayock's lists. You can use all the list and compile the VALUE of Harmon and/or the expectation of when he would be drafted. I would really like to see those who projected him in the top 100, where we drafted him. I like Mayock's list. I used to use Gosselin's. These are benchmarks.

You clearly favor needs-based valuation. That's fine. However such methods must be tempered by value, otherwise teams will often waste considerable value. We clearly need a WR at 29. We received fair draft value by trading and drafting 3 players well worth drafting where we drafted them. Collins was also a solid pick.

There is no explanation of the Harmon pick other than Belichick wanted him and was afraid that someone else would draft him. He clearly was not worried about losing Boyce.

You strip away the players on Mayock's board that the Pats have absolutely no need or would never draft even if they fell to them in the seventh round, Mayock's board would look completely different. If Mayock was making a Big Board just for the Pats, Collins and Dobson might be top 20. Hence using it as you way of judging the Pats' draft is flawed to begin with before you accept the fact that it is just one man's opinion.

 

[Synovia]

With regard to Mayock's lists. You can use all the list and compile the VALUE of Harmon and/or the expectation of when he would be drafted. I would really like to see those who projected him in the top 100, where we drafted him. I like Mayock's list. I used to use Gosselin's. These are benchmarks. .

No, you can't because Mayock is the only one who is using Mayock's list. There could be 10 NFL teams, whose talent evaluators are all better than Mayock, sitting there saying "Ah ****, we thought he'd fall a litter further". It could also be that every other teams is sitting there saying "what the hell? really?". There's just no way to know.


Mayock isn't an expert. He's a commentator. He does a pretty good job guessing who the best 20 or so players in the draft are. Past that, they're throwing darts. The experts are the ones getting paid to draft people.

Who would you trust more to pick stocks for you? Warren Buffet, or the guy on CNN every morning? Because Mayock is the guy on CNN.

 

[mgteich]

Choose your own analyst, your own lists. Where do YOUR favorite analysts place Harmon.

And just BTW, think that Mayock's list are worthless is just plain ignorant. Do you really think that there is no real analysis behind the scenes supporting the conclusions he give on air?

No, you can't because Mayock is the only one who is using Mayock's list. There could be 10 NFL teams, whose talent evaluators are all better than Mayock, sitting there saying "Ah ****, we thought he'd fall a litter further". It could also be that every other teams is sitting there saying "what the hell? really?". There's just no way to know.


Mayock isn't an expert. He's a commentator. He does a pretty good job guessing who the best 20 or so players in the draft are. Past that, they're throwing darts. The experts are the ones getting paid to draft people.

Who would you trust more to pick stocks for you? Warren Buffet, or the guy on CNN every morning? Because Mayock is the guy on CNN.

 

[Nunchucks]

Its fine to listen to the commentators, see who they highlight and rank, it makes the draft more fun. However, the truth is evident. These guys are not professional scouts, they are practicing addition and subtraction while the professionals are doing calculus.

 

[mgteich]

There are several cholces.

1) ACCEPT that Belichick's player is the best available for the team at any spot and the best value at any spot.

2) REFUSE to evaluate at all. After all, we can wait 3 years and find out.

3) Rely on YOUR OWN great analytic skills.

4) Choose and select among analysts whose analysis you respect.

I chose Option 4. And when NO analyst had Harmon in the top 100, I suggested that perhaps, just perhaps, Belickick might have been able to get Harmon at 102. Seriously, does ANYONE doubt that?

No, you can't because Mayock is the only one who is using Mayock's list. There could be 10 NFL teams, whose talent evaluators are all better than Mayock, sitting there saying "Ah ****, we thought he'd fall a litter further". It could also be that every other teams is sitting there saying "what the hell? really?". There's just no way to know.


Mayock isn't an expert. He's a commentator. He does a pretty good job guessing who the best 20 or so players in the draft are. Past that, they're throwing darts. The experts are the ones getting paid to draft people.

Who would you trust more to pick stocks for you? Warren Buffet, or the guy on CNN every morning? Because Mayock is the guy on CNN.

 

[Mainefan]

I can't wait until training camp begins and posters start saying "We have the best team in years. We're gonna win the Superbowl. It almost isn't fair to the other teams." It happens every year.

Personally, I think a lot of teams have really improved themselves and we're going to be in for a fight on most Sundays. This is a year that scares me, what with Hernandez and Gronk injured and the rest of the receiving core new. On the other hand, I think the defense will be in pretty good shape.