Broncos look good.....

[Rob0729]

I keep seeing this argument getting thrown around and it doesn't make a lick of sense. The 2011 Patriots didn't "beat anyone" in the regular season, but still went to the Super Bowl.

The reason you shouldn't be afraid of their Broncos is due to their strengths and weaknesses. On defense, their secondary is their strength. Their corners are tough and are able to match up with any teams wide receivers. Their weakness is their ability to defend TE's. Guess who's coming back for the playoffs?

First, the Broncos have faced two teams with more than 6 wins since they lost to the Pats and they were the streaky Bengals (they were already on a three game losing streak when they faced the Broncos) and the free falling Ravens. The Pats' Strength of Victory in 2011 was .423 while the Broncos' strength of victory is currently .396 (and that is inflated by the Ravens who are nowhere as good as their current record). Assuming the Broncos win their final two games, that strength of victory number will drop quite a bit since Cleveland won't be better than 6-10 and KC won't be better than 3-13. The Broncos have the second weakest SOV number after Cincy of all the teams currently looking to make the playoffs. The Pats had the third best SOV number in the AFC last year and the sixth best SOV number of all the playoff teams last year. So the Pats SOV wasn't as bad as you make it and they won against better teams. Different situations.

Second, the Pats lost a close game to the Giants and were blown out by the Steelers in 2011. The Broncos were totally blown out by the only three elite teams they faced. Again different situations.

Third, unlike the 2011 Patriots, Denver is slow starting team and struggles in the first half. They have consistently had bad to mediocre first halves this year and then come on strong in second halves. They have overcome these bad starts against bad teams, but failed miserably against the elite teams.

Third, the Pats are built to beat the Broncos. The Pats are a fast start team which plays into the above weakness of the Broncos that start slow. If the Broncos are coming off a bye, that slow start could be even slower since bye teams frequently have to knock off a little rust at the start of the game. The Pats can easily build a 21-30 point lead in the half. Also, John Fox has yet to figure out how to slow down the Broncos' defense. As you said they have problems with TEs.

If you look at my arguments in other threads, it isn't my only arguments. I have frequently pointed out the Broncos' trend of bad first halves vs. the Pats usually coming out on fire and the fact the Broncos' defense cannot stop the Pats offense. I just pointed out one point here. That said, I have shown that the 2011 Patriots are not like the 2012 Broncos.

 

[BSR]

I keep seeing this argument getting thrown around and it doesn't make a lick of sense. The 2011 Patriots didn't "beat anyone" in the regular season, but still went to the Super Bowl.

The reason you shouldn't be afraid of their Broncos is due to their strengths and weaknesses. On defense, their secondary is their strength. Their corners are tough and are able to match up with any teams wide receivers. Their weakness is their ability to defend TE's. Guess who's coming back for the playoffs?

I think the fact that they haven't played any good teams in months tells us that we really don't know what they are capable of against good teams. They didn't exactly blow out the inferior competition which is telling itself in some ways. Still wouldn't be totally shocked if Cleavland or KC pulled out some unlikely upset. As for Peyton in wintery conditions, Denver temps are still dropping.

 

[Ivan]

anyone have the brady stat...W-L record IN denver? isn't it like 5-6 or something like that




but they have manning this year...much different

Belichick is either 5-1 or 6-1 against John Fox, and the Broncos defense has allowed 117 points in 3 games under Fox against them. That doesn't scare me.

 

[MileHighFish]

Agree with most of what you say Rob. Don't really care to reference 2011 as it really doesn't do anything to compare the two teams... If Denver and NE meet up again the slow start for Denver will be a big key as you stated. Denver can't afford to let NE build a big lead.

 

[MileHighFish]

The Denver D in week 15 is a lot different then that in week 5 and especially the D from last year. Don't get me wrong, I still believe NE is the top of the AFC but Denver is a better team then most on this board seem willing to admit despite the strength (or lack there of) of schedule. I know this is a NE board so that is to be expected I am just hoping Denver can get through these last 2 games with minimal injuries and a couple of wins. The Pats have to be considered better then the Broncos as they have beaten them once this year. Not much to argue there but hoping there is a rematch

 

[Sivy]

Am I the only one that does not give a ***** about other teams or giving them praise? I dont give an F about how good a team looks. In my mind, its the Patriots, and then a bunch of bums.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

The Denver D in week 15 is a lot different then that in week 5 and especially the D from last year. Don't get me wrong, I still believe NE is the top of the AFC but Denver is a better team then most on this board seem willing to admit despite the strength (or lack there of) of schedule. I know this is a NE board so that is to be expected I am just hoping Denver can get through these last 2 games with minimal injuries and a couple of wins. The Pats have to be considered better then the Broncos as they have beaten them once this year. Not much to argue there but hoping there is a rematch

What has happened to make the Denver defense different (better?) than in week 5 or last year?

 

[Sivy]

The Denver D in week 15 is a lot different then that in week 5 and especially the D from last year. Don't get me wrong, I still believe NE is the top of the AFC but Denver is a better team then most on this board seem willing to admit despite the strength (or lack there of) of schedule. I know this is a NE board so that is to be expected I am just hoping Denver can get through these last 2 games with minimal injuries and a couple of wins. The Pats have to be considered better then the Broncos as they have beaten them once this year. Not much to argue there but hoping there is a rematch

Denver is a bunch of punk asses that ran into some crap teams. The Ravens were a joke sunday.

And saying denver is a different team from week 5, while ignoring that the Patriots are a different team, is pointless. Talib, making the D much better and Gronk and AH at full health on the field together is going to be to much for Den to handle.

Add that with the fact that Manning sucks in the playoffs and you got no hope.

 

[Kontradiction]

First, the Broncos have faced two teams with more than 6 wins since they lost to the Pats and they were the streaky Bengals (they were already on a three game losing streak when they faced the Broncos) and the free falling Ravens. The Pats' Strength of Victory in 2011 was .423 while the Broncos' strength of victory is currently .396 (and that is inflated by the Ravens who are nowhere as good as their current record). Assuming the Broncos win their final two games, that strength of victory number will drop quite a bit since Cleveland won't be better than 6-10 and KC won't be better than 3-13. The Broncos have the second weakest SOV number after Cincy of all the teams currently looking to make the playoffs. The Pats had the third best SOV number in the AFC last year and the sixth best SOV number of all the playoff teams last year. So the Pats SOV wasn't as bad as you make it and they won against better teams. Different situations.

Second, the Pats lost a close game to the Giants and were blown out by the Steelers in 2011. The Broncos were totally blown out by the only three elite teams they faced. Again different situations.

All of this is well and good, but it's still the same slant used against the 2011 Patriots. Only, with the 2011 Patriots, the "points" were generally used elsewhere on the team (with things such as shoddy pass defense, mediocre run defense, nothing outside of the TE's, overrated running game, etc. vs. they're slow starters, they've been blown out, no strength of schedule, etc.).

As for the "almost" wins, almost doesn't count. The Pats lost, the Broncos lost, and style points don't matter. A loss is a loss. Further, IIRC (and you can correct me on this if I'm wrong), I believe you were one of the most staunch defenders of the 2011 Patriots when it came to the argument of "who have they beat?".

Third, unlike the 2011 Patriots, Denver is slow starting team and struggles in the first half. They have consistently had bad to mediocre first halves this year and then come on strong in second halves. They have overcome these bad starts against bad teams, but failed miserably against the elite teams.

Huh? The Patriots had plenty of slow starts in 2011 capped off by going on a roll in the second half.

Third, the Pats are built to beat the Broncos. The Pats are a fast start team which plays into the above weakness of the Broncos that start slow. If the Broncos are coming off a bye, that slow start could be even slower since bye teams frequently have to knock off a little rust at the start of the game. The Pats can easily build a 21-30 point lead in the half. Also, John Fox has yet to figure out how to slow down the Broncos' defense. As you said they have problems with TEs.

No argument here.

If you look at my arguments in other threads, it isn't my only arguments. I have frequently pointed out the Broncos' trend of bad first halves vs. the Pats usually coming out on fire and the fact the Broncos' defense cannot stop the Pats offense. I just pointed out one point here. That said, I have shown that the 2011 Patriots are not like the 2012 Broncos.

You've tried, but all you're doing is excusing the 2011 Pats while damning the 2012 Broncos even though the two teams have some similarities. What you should really be showing is that the two teams are similar but had and have different points of contention from others when it comes to why they wouldn't and won't win in the playoffs. Again, I can't see the Broncos going far, but it isn't because of the "they haven't beaten anybody" argument.

 

[Kontradiction]

I think the fact that they haven't played any good teams in months tells us that we really don't know what they are capable of against good teams. They didn't exactly blow out the inferior competition which is telling itself in some ways. Still wouldn't be totally shocked if Cleavland or KC pulled out some unlikely upset. As for Peyton in wintery conditions, Denver temps are still dropping.

Exactly. The last good team they played was the Pats. Not only is it a bad argument, one that is shown to be bad merely by pointing to our 2011 Pats, but it's also one that plays right into the hands of any Denver fan that cares to contest the point.

 

[everlong]

The Denver D in week 15 is a lot different then that in week 5 and especially the D from last year. Don't get me wrong, I still believe NE is the top of the AFC but Denver is a better team then most on this board seem willing to admit despite the strength (or lack there of) of schedule. I know this is a NE board so that is to be expected I am just hoping Denver can get through these last 2 games with minimal injuries and a couple of wins. The Pats have to be considered better then the Broncos as they have beaten them once this year. Not much to argue there but hoping there is a rematch

Welcome to the board. It's always nice to have fans from other teams here who want to talk football and not get into the nonsense.

I would also point out the Patriots defense is much different than the one in week 5. They certainly didn't look great against SF but the second half in general they've been a better unit. Additionally Hernandez did not play in the Broncos game and Gronk had a leg injury effecting his play. Gronk should be back and at full strength and his injury this time was an arm which shouldn't limit his performance like the ankle did.

 

[Rob0729]

The Denver D in week 15 is a lot different then that in week 5 and especially the D from last year. Don't get me wrong, I still believe NE is the top of the AFC but Denver is a better team then most on this board seem willing to admit despite the strength (or lack there of) of schedule. I know this is a NE board so that is to be expected I am just hoping Denver can get through these last 2 games with minimal injuries and a couple of wins. The Pats have to be considered better then the Broncos as they have beaten them once this year. Not much to argue there but hoping there is a rematch

I think the Broncos are very good team. I just think that they haven't proven that they can beat the elite teams and their slow starts and weaknesses on defense give the Pats a favorable match up,

The type of teams the Pats usually lose to are in the NFC not the AFC.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

i don't understand power polls...they pats drop behind the texans and broncos...and they beat both of them...so it's just based off record?

 

[Uncle Rico]

i don't understand power polls...they pats drop behind the texans and broncos...and they beat both of them...so it's just based off record?

Based mostly on the most recent results.

I'm OK with this. Gotta think BB and Brady will use it to motivate everyone.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

and we looked all world the week before and then look at us this week.

Let's just hope we get to see "Manning Face" during the post season. Can even toss in a dosage of little brother manning face too.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Peyton Manning wins 47% of his postseason games (9-10)

Mark Sanchez wins 54% of his regular season games (33-28)

any questions?

 

[Rob0729]

All of this is well and good, but it's still the same slant used against the 2011 Patriots. Only, with the 2011 Patriots, the "points" were generally used elsewhere on the team (with things such as shoddy pass defense, mediocre run defense, nothing outside of the TE's, overrated running game, etc. vs. they're slow starters, they've been blown out, no strength of schedule, etc.).

As for the "almost" wins, almost doesn't count. The Pats lost, the Broncos lost, and style points don't matter. A loss is a loss. Further, IIRC (and you can correct me on this if I'm wrong), I believe you were one of the most staunch defenders of the 2011 Patriots when it came to the argument of "who have they beat?".



Huh? The Patriots had plenty of slow starts in 2011 capped off by going on a roll in the second half.



No argument here.



You've tried, but all you're doing is excusing the 2011 Pats while damning the 2012 Broncos even though the two teams have some similarities. What you should really be showing is that the two teams are similar but had and have different points of contention from others when it comes to why they wouldn't and won't win in the playoffs. Again, I can't see the Broncos going far, but it isn't because of the "they haven't beaten anybody" argument.

First, I am not making excuses for anything. I have been highlighting how it was different. The Pats of 2011 had their issues, but their issues were very different than the Broncos issues of this year.

As for almost wins, of course they are losses, but how you lose especially against good teams can say something your team. the fact that the Pats took the Giants to the wire while the Broncos have gotten blown out by every great team they have faced speaks to both teams. Yes, they are all losses, but it tells you something about each team.

As for the slow starts, I may be wrong there about the Pats.

As for the Pats' 2011 schedule, they didn't face too many top teams BUT their schedule was brutal compared to who the Broncos have faced this year. The Pats faced a lot of 8-8, 9-7 type of teams (I think 10 games were vs. teams with 8-8 or better records) but only two teams with less than 6 wins. The Broncos will definitely have 8 games vs. teams with sub .500 records and possibly that number could be as many as 11 games vs. sub .500 teams depending how the next two weeks shake out.

As for the argument the 2011 Pats haven't faced anyone, that is another argument to show how the 2011 Pats and the 2012 Broncos are different. The 2012 Broncos have faced somebodies and failed each time by getting blown out (at least a 10 point loss each game) every time. So the 2011 Pats may have performed well against the average teams in the NFL and never been tested, the 2012 Broncos have not performed well vs. the elite teams.

Lastly, the 2011 Pats had a lot of things break their way to get to the Super Bowl. Rothlisberger was injured which gave the Pats an easy match up with the Broncos. The Texans were down to their third string QB by the time they reached the playoffs. The Ravens could have and some say should have won the AFC Championship game if not for a strip of the game winning TD if he held onto for a second longer would have been a TD and a shanked field goal that would have sent the game into overtime. The Pats were fortunate to face a weaken AFC field. They might have still gone to the Super Bowl without it, but we will never know. If the Broncos face a full strength or near full strength Patriots, they will not have such an easy route to a potential Super Bowl. Things fell right for the Pats last year in the playoffs.

I think I have made a pretty good case how both teams are different. I am not excuse making because there is no reason to make excuses for the 2011 Pats' team. I am arguing how the two teams are different, not the merits of the 2011 team.

 

[MileHighFish]

Thanks everlong and I agree, NE is also a different team now vs week 5. The possibility of having to deal with a healthy Gronk and Hernandez gives me nightmares! Thankfully, I only have to deal with them while watching the game and drinking beer!;-D

The addition of Talib will undoubtedly help the Pats secondary against the Broncos passing game as well as in the run stopping department. Of course, this all hinges on both teams taking care of things (as I expect both to do).

ForThoseAboutToRock the defensive difference this year compared to last year is mainly gaining a year of experience along with the emergence of some younger players like Chris Harris, Derek Wolfe and Wesley Woodyard. The addition of Jack Del Rio at DC hasn't hurt either and the defense seems to be finally gelling.

I can only speak for what I know regarding the Broncos. I know NE has plenty of defensive studs and emerging players to speak of as well. The Broncos can only play who is on their schedule and haven't beaten the elite teams they have faced. I am confident they can but only time will tell.

I can say that there weren't a lot of people out there that thought the Broncos would be playing as well as they have been or be in the position they currently find themselves in, going into the season. It has been a pleasant surprise following the Tebow circus

 

[BananaRepublican]

Peyton has played all his home playoff games indoors and will most likely have difficult time adjusting.

The Niners had a hard time the other night too, huh?

Stop it. He was beaten by Ty Law, Jarvis Green, Rodney, and very favorable rules for DBs back in '03.

Anybody remember the rock fight with McNair in the cold? It bothered everybody. We won the game but not by a whole lot and not because of the cold. We won because we had a better team. Amazing how it goes that way either int he cold or the heat and humidity of Miami or Jacksonville, huh?

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The Broncos fans are living it up now because of the #2 seed and almost guaranteed 2 wins in the next 2 weeks against pathetic offenses.

The problem is that Denver will be on a roll going into the playoffs,but will have been winning the last few games against teams with bad offenses that cannot keep up with Manning and his gang - Baltimore,Cleveland and Kansas City have defenses currently ranked 21st,25th and 26th.

If Denver does get the bye then all of a sudden they go from playing against poor offenses to the #1 offense (assuming the Pats win the WC game)

That means more work for Manning and the Broncos defense then they will have likely have had to the month long.

They will have to be ready to adjust from bad offenses to the best in 5 weeks time.....the Broncos defense better be ready to adjust or they will be upset in Mile High.