Raiders' pick scenarios - significant movement still possible

[mudslinger]

I think the new player/owner agreement is going to play huge role in how Pats use picks this year. I for one hope they find what they want and need and then use the high picks!!

 

[italian pat patriot]

it looks not bad at all - thks for the update

 

[borg]

Its hard to get excited about the Patriots draft day, because BB almost never drafts anyone the fans could ever think of, and rarely goes for the flashy guy everyone wants. People end up confused and disappointed on draft day. I'm completely ignoring how they play on day 1, but until the season starts (when we're usually pleasantly surprised) most people are usually left shaking their head.

I care little about where the raiders pick ends up, because it most likely will not be used at that spot, and whether its 12, 13, 17, whatever, BB will still rob someone blind of that picks value and manage 13 picks in the first 4 rounds next year.

If you get excited about draft position as a Pats Fan (with the exception of 32) you're alittle strange. wait until he's done trading it and see who he finally picks to get excited.

I love draft day...you get to see BB make 37 picks

 

[bucky]

you mean the rams seattle game has zero affect on our pick ? wow that's weird.

That's correct. The winner of that game makes the playoffs and picks 21st while the loser will pick ahead of the Raiders no matter who it is.

 

[patsox23]

Bucky, much appreciated. 95% of us love this stuff.

 

[scout]

Its hard to get excited about the Patriots draft day, because BB almost never drafts anyone the fans could ever think of, and rarely goes for the flashy guy everyone wants. People end up confused and disappointed on draft day. I'm completely ignoring how they play on day 1, but until the season starts (when we're usually pleasantly surprised) most people are usually left shaking their head.

I care little about where the raiders pick ends up, because it most likely will not be used at that spot, and whether its 12, 13, 17, whatever, BB will still rob someone blind of that picks value and manage 13 picks in the first 4 rounds next year.

If you get excited about draft position as a Pats Fan (with the exception of 32) you're alittle strange. wait until he's done trading it and see who he finally picks to get excited.

Are you still disapointed the Pats didn't select Vernon Gholston?

 

[olschool]

I love draft day...you get to see BB make 37 picks

Don't be surprised to see BB wheel and deal to end up with just five or six picks.

Think about who he'd have to cut to fit rookies in next year.

It's the main reason the '05 thru '08 drafts didn't add much to the roster. Those teams were already loaded with talent. When those guys were finally gone in '09-'10, BB had room to add new guys.

I think this year he'll be trading up for a few key quality guys, rather than draft a dozen guys in the later rounds.

 

[patsox23]

To be fair, the 05-08 drafts were not good, regardless of who would've made the team or not.

 

[Joker]

The Patriots are 13-2....rookies playing and contributing all up and down the roster...SOMEBODY must know what they're doing...

Booby Grier blew 29 of 31 picks back in the 90's...how far are we going to go just to make complaints about what was bad and what wasn't? Can't anyone even enjoy what we have going on NOW without all the recriminations?

 

[Hermey the Great]

Just did some quick math on strength of schedule, which is the first tiebreaker for draft order. The Raiders had a pretty easy schedule, so they "win" the tiebreaker against everyone except the Rams and Jags. Thus, here are the best and worst case scenarios:

Best Case:
Raiders lose to KC
Redskins beat Giants
Vikings beat Lions
Titans beat Colts
Dolphins result irrelevant in this scenario.

Raiders finish 7-9 and pick 12th due to "winning" tiebreaker vs. Redskins, Dolphins, Vikings and Titans.

Worst Case:
Raiders beat KC
Pats beat Dolphins
Texans beat Jags.

Raiders finish 8-8 and pick 17th due to "losing" tiebreaker to Jags.

Thanks for all the hard work Bucky!!!!

Now, can you do the Vikings pick???

 

[*ChungFu*]

If BB is allowed to trade picks beyond 2013 I could see that happening.
A 2011 4th for a 2014 1st etc.

 

[hughthehand]

"how far are we going to go just to make complaints about what was bad and what wasn't?"

IMO criticism does not equal complaining.

The reality is the 09 and 10 drafts are making a huge impact on this season, and the drafts mentioned above are not.


As for trading down, why wouldn't we want that? As some poster noted in a different post, we traded a mid to late 3rd rounder in 08 to the Titans for a 2nd rounder in 09, then moved down twice, got Spikes, Mesko and now #33 in 2010. Pushing value into the next season is Smart drafting.

Personally I would love to see them draft about where they are with the Raiders pick to get one solid stud. But our other first rounder and the 2 2s and 2 3s, I am hoping a lot of trades come out of them for 2012 picks.

I would personally be Floored if they use both #29-32 and #33.

 

[Joker]

The reality is the 09 and 10 drafts are making a huge impact on this season, and the drafts mentioned above are not.

2005...Mankins,Kaczur,Sanders,.....Cassel,Ellis Hobbs starters on other teams

2006..Gostkowski,Dave Thomas in N.O.

2007...Meriwether just made all pro...we didn't pick again til the 4th round...of course we USED picks to get Welker and Moss

each of those drafts have impacted the Patriots going forward....perhaps you'd rather just jettison all those players and expunge the stain of these "bad" drafts

 

[37Harrison]

Great post!

Both scenarios are ideal for the Pats if recent history is any indication. Middle of the first round is perfect. They can still get a top 10 talent when it's all said and done and not have to pay the player top 10 money. I love it!

I mena c'mon, you knew if the Raiders gave the Pats a top 5 pick, the Pats would probably not want to pick in that spot anyways. The likelyhood of them picking between 12-17 is much higher and will allow them to trade their second first rounder for a higher one next year or more picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Couple that with the possible #33 pick and the Pats are looking like they will dominate draft day again!

 

[The Gr8est]

That's correct. The winner of that game makes the playoffs and picks 21st while the loser will pick ahead of the Raiders no matter who it is.

Thanx for the work here bucky. I was thinking that the Pats could pick as high as #11 if Seattle beats St Louis and the other best case scenario happens.

But while a Seattle win wins the division at 7-9 and has them draft after Oakland, that also leaves StL at 7-9 but according to the Great Blue North Draft site, St Louis' opponents are currently at .442 winning % while Oakland's is at .471.

Like most others here I care, and this is a very exciting aspect of the NFL. What a luxury when you can root for your draft picks improve because of ANOTHER team's futility. What a win-win.

Ideally, I'd love to see someone like Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett slip out of the 1st round. That would make #33 extremely valuable and tradeable and could easily see someone like Dallas or SF trade next year's #1 and this year's #2 for #33 and maybe #96 to move up and draft him. Dallas and SF both have relatively high #2 picks this year too.

For sure BB will maximize the value and those fans who don't understand the draft will have something else to complain about.

 

[Haley]

I am not sure but I think this is close to the mark. Can someone doublecheck me please? (note that there is still movement in some of these that I didn't mark)

Pick # 15, 1st Round (OAK – Richard Seymour) [movement from 12-17]
Pick # 32, 1st Round 
Pick # 33, 2nd Round (CAR – 2010 3rd Round)
Pick # 64, 2nd Round
Pick # 78, 3rd Round (MIN – Randy Moss)
Pick # 96, 3rd Round
Pick # 98, 4th Round (DEN – Laurence Maroney)
Pick #160, 5th Round
Pick #187, 6th Round (NO – David Thomas)

 

[37Harrison]

The reality is the 09 and 10 drafts are making a huge impact on this season, and the drafts mentioned above are not.

2005...Mankins,Kaczur,Sanders,.....Cassel,Ellis Hobbs starters on other teams

2006..Gostkowski,Dave Thomas in N.O.

2007...Meriwether just made all pro...we didn't pick again til the 4th round...of course we USED picks to get Welker and Moss

each of those drafts have impacted the Patriots going forward....perhaps you'd rather just jettison all those players and expunge the stain of these "bad" drafts

All the players in bold aren't exactly lighting up the league. In fact, Hobbs was criticized here and in Philly for not being able to cover very well, Kaczur was and is in jeoppardy of losing his starting job, Dave Thomas has become more of a bit/role player than anything else in N.O. (their rookie TE Graham is out playing Thomas), and Meriweather... well do I really need to get into him?

Sanders isn't anything spectacular but he is solid and does make some nice contributions. However, I don't think that he would be missed all that much if he weren't on the team.

I wouldn't put too much into the "starter" title (e.g. Duane Starks ring a bell?), all it means is that team doesn't have anyone any better at that position currently on their roster for one reason or another.

 

[SpiderFox53]

Great post!

Both scenarios are ideal for the Pats if recent history is any indication. Middle of the first round is perfect. They can still get a top 10 talent when it's all said and done and not have to pay the player top 10 money. I love it!

I mena c'mon, you knew if the Raiders gave the Pats a top 5 pick, the Pats would probably not want to pick in that spot anyways. The likelyhood of them picking between 12-17 is much higher and will allow them to trade their second first rounder for a higher one next year or more picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Couple that with the possible #33 pick and the Pats are looking like they will dominate draft day again!

With the almost certainty that there will be a rookie salary cap, this "restriction" is likely no longer a valid one.

 

[RayClay]

I am not sure but I think this is close to the mark. Can someone doublecheck me please? (note that there is still movement in some of these that I didn't mark)

Pick # 15, 1st Round (OAK – Richard Seymour) [movement from 12-17]
Pick # 32, 1st Round 
Pick # 33, 2nd Round (CAR – 2010 3rd Round)
Pick # 64, 2nd Round
Pick # 78, 3rd Round (MIN – Randy Moss)
Pick # 96, 3rd Round
Pick # 98, 4th Round (DEN – Laurence Maroney)
Pick #160, 5th Round
Pick #187, 6th Round (NO – David Thomas)

The equivalent ( within a few picks) of three 1sts and three 3rds, thanks to putrid seasons by Denver and Carolina. it just isn't possible to milk that draft board any better.

We are not worthy. :youtheman:

 

[37Harrison]

With the almost certainty that there will be a rookie salary cap, this "restriction" is likely no longer a valid one.

Agreed however, until this is implemented I wouldn't count on anything. We are talking about the NFL and negotiations are still on going.